• 벤처창업연구
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.133-141
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• 2012

글로벌 경쟁 상황에 처한 현대의 모든 기업들은 고객의 니즈를 충족시키고, 이를 통한 경쟁력을 강화하기 위한 방안으로서 서비스를 이해하기 시작하면서 서비스에 대한 관심이 날로 증가하고 있다. 기업들이 제공하는 제품이나 서비스의 가치는 주로 고객과 서비스 제공자 간의 관계에서 형성되는 만족도의 정도로 정의되는 서비스 신뢰도에 의해 크게 좌우된다. 본 연구에서는, 유형의 제품이나 시스템의 실패 유형과 영향을 평가하는데 널리 사용되는 FMEA를 서비스의 신뢰도 평가에 적용하였다. 이를 위해, 서비스의 설계와 서비스 기능과 실패 간의 관계를 용이하게 표현할 수 있는 사건중심 프로세스 모델을 이용하였다. 본 연구의 목적은 서비스 프로세스 관점에서의 서비스 신뢰도를 평가하는 방법을 제시하는 것으로서, 이를 위해 fuzzy FMEA와 grey 이론을 이용하였다. 제안된 방법은 자동차정비 프로세스 사례에 적용하여 평가하였다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.144-149
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• 2009

The safety assessment for facility industry is now being periodically performed in Korea. For the purpose of scientific safety management, QRA(Quantitative Risk Assessment) is also being performed, and reliability data of the facilities is essential to perform the assessment. The necessary reliability data for QRA have been generally announced the values in other process industries, which results in the drop of risk reliability. The most appropriate method is to perform a direct reliability analysis towards the facilities undergoing safety assessment. In this study, the distinction between homogeneous sample estimation and multi-sample estimation of reliability data clarify using 2-Bayes theory.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.195-207
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• 2018

First-order reliability method (FORM) is enhanced based on the search direction using relaxed conjugate reliability (RCR) approach for the embedded nanocomposite beam under buckling failure mode. The RCR method is formulated using discrete conjugate map with a limited scalar factor. A dynamical relaxed factor is proposed to control instability of proposed RCR, which is adjusted using sufficient descent condition. The characteristic of equivalent materials for nanocomposite beam are obtained by micro-electro-mechanical model. The probabilistic model of nanocomposite beam is simulated using the sinusoidal shear deformation theory (SSDT). The beam is subjected to external applied voltage in thickness direction and the surrounding elastic medium is modeled by Pasternak foundation. The governing equations are derived in terms of energy method and Hamilton's principal. Using exact solution, the implicit buckling limit state function of nanocomposite beam is proposed, which is involved various random variables including thickness of beam, length of beam, spring constant of foundation, shear constant of foundation, applied voltage, and volume fraction of ZnO nanoparticles in polymer. The robustness, accuracy and efficiency of proposed RCR method are evaluated for this engineering structural reliability problem. The results demonstrate that proposed RCR method is more accurate and robust than the excising reliability methods-based FORM. The volume fraction of ZnO nanoparticles and the applied voltage are the sensitive variables on the reliable levels of the nanocomposite beams.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.20-28
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• 2005

In this paper, the methodology for the reliability estimation of buried pipeline with longitudinal gouges and dent is presented and the limit state of buried pipeline is formulated by failure assessment diagram(FAD). The reliability of buried pipeline with defects has been estimated by using a theory of failure probability. The failure probability is calculated by using the FORM(first order reliability method) and Monte Carlo simulation. The results out of two procedures have been compared each other. It is found that the FORM and Monte Carlo simulation give similar results for varying boundary conditions and various random variables. Furthermore, it is also recognized that the failure probability increases with increasing of dent depth, gouge depth, gouge length, operating pressure, pipe outside radius and decreasing the wall thickness. And it is found that the analysis by using the failure assessment diagram gives highly conservative results than those by using the theory of failure probability.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제62권4호
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• pp.507-517
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• 2017

Due to the discontinuous nature of uncertainty quantification in conventional evidence theory(ET), the computational cost of reliability analysis based on ET model is very high. A novel ET model based on fuzzy distribution and the corresponding combination rule to synthesize the judgments of experts are put forward in this paper. The intersection and union of membership functions are defined as belief and plausible membership function respectively, and the Murfhy's average combination rule is adopted to combine the basic probability assignment for focal elements. Then the combined membership functions are transformed to the equivalent probability density function by a normalizing factor. Finally, a reliability analysis procedure for structures with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is presented, in which the equivalent normalization method is adopted to solve the upper and lower bound of reliability. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated by a numerical example and an engineering example. The results also show that the reliability interval calculated by the suggested method is almost identical to that solved by conventional method. Moreover, the results indicate that the computational cost of the suggested procedure is much less than that of conventional method. The suggested ET model provides a new way to flexibly represent epistemic uncertainty, and provides an efficiency method to estimate the reliability of structures with the mixture of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.

• 산업공학
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.158-165
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• 1999

One solution to the estimation of product reliability during the development phase is to measure reliability improvement over time and compare this improvement to previous product development progress. This paper presents the reliability growth theory and applies it to some subsystems of vehicles during their design, development and prototype testing. The data presented illustrates explicitly the prediction of the reliability growth in the product development cycle. The application of these techniques is a part of the product assurance function that plays an important role in product reliability improvement.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.90-96
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• 1998

Helical gear system is widely used to transmit heavy duty power with harmonies and silences between parallel shafts. This paper predicts a life with Weibull distribution and estimates a reliability based on recycle principle of helical gear systems. 2-parameter Weibull distribution is generally adopted to estimate the mechanical life and the reliability of most gear systems, because this Weibull distribution is proper to explain a characteristics or a life of parts of gear systems with linearity of probability density data on weibull data sheet. For a high reliability, this paper estimates a number of overhaul times and a number of needed substitutes (exchange attachment,1 or parts) with following renewal theory, One is make an exchange of whole module include failure attachments/parts and second estimating method is only exchange of a failure attachments / parts.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.113-124
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• 1997

Based on the recent developments of the reliability-based structural analysis and design as well as the extending knowledge on the probabilistic characteristics of load and resistances, the probability based design criteria have been successfully developed for many standards. Since the probabilistic characteristics depend highly on the local load and resistances, it is recognized to develop the design criterion compatible with domestic requirements. The existing optimum design methods, which are generally based on the structural theory and certain engineering exprience, do not realistically consider the uncertainties of load and resistances and the basic reliability concepts. This study is directed to propose a optimum design based Expected Total Cost Minimization on two-way slab system which could possibly replace optimum design based traditional provisions of the current code, based on the AFOSM reliablity theory.

• 한국수학교육학회지시리즈D:수학교육연구
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.275-283
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• 2007

In this study, we gave 132 high school students fifteen probabilities and nine statistics problems of the Korean College Scholastic Aptitude Test and then analyzed their answer using the classical test theory and the item response theory. Using the classical test theory (the Testian 1.0) we get the item reliability ($0.730 \sim 0.765$), and using the item response theory (the Bayesian 1.0) we get the item difficulty ( $-2.32\sim0.83$ ) and discrimination ( $0.55\sim 2.71$). From results, we find out what and why students could not understand well.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.135-145
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• 1998

There exists popular approach using certainty factor (CF) for the development of effective reasoning mechanism under uncertainty in Expert System, However, there is a problem with CF. The CF values could be resulted in the opposite of given conditional probabilities. In this paper, a method for, reasoning under uncertainty using reliability theory to overcome the problem is proposed. And the proposed method is used in the development of Expert System for the selection of equipment for automated warehouses.