• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.191-201
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• 2016

Stern bearing is a key component of marine propulsion plant. Its environment is diverse, working condition changeable, and condition severe, so that stern bearing load is of strong time variability, which directly affects the safety and reliability of the system and the normal navigation of ships. In this paper, three affecting factors of the stern bearing load such as hull deformation, propeller hydrodynamic vertical force and bearing wear are calculated and characterized by random theory. The uncertainty mathematical model of stern bearing load is established to research the relationships between factors and uncertainty load of stern bearing. The validity of calculation mathematical model and results is verified by examples and experiment yet. Therefore, the research on the uncertainty load of stern bearing has important theoretical significance and engineering practical value.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제61권7호
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• pp.1007-1013
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• 2012

Modeling of photovoltaic power systems is significant to analytically predict its dynamics in practical applications. This paper presents a novel modeling algorithm of such system by using probability and statistic theories. We first establish a linear model basically composed of Fourier parameter sets for mapping the input/output variable of photovoltaic systems. The proposed model includes solar irradiation and ambient temperature of photovoltaic modules as an input vector and the inverter power output is estimated sequentially. We deal with these measurements as random variables and derive a parameter learning algorithm of the model in terms of statistics. Our learning algorithm requires computation of an expectation and joint expectation against solar irradiation and ambient temperature, which are analytically solved from the integral calculus. For testing the proposed modeling algorithm, we utilize realistic measurement data sets obtained from the Seokwang Solar power plant in Youngcheon, Korea. We demonstrate reliability and superiority of the proposed photovoltaic system model by observing error signals between a practical system output and its estimation.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제42권7호
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• pp.547-558
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• 2009

일반적인 하천제방의 안정성 평가는 확정론적 분석결과를 토대로 강우특성, 매개변수 등에 대한 불확실성을 안전 계수를 도입하여 실시하고 있다. 이러한 안전계수는 모형의 매개변수 및 재료 속성의 다양성을 다루는 공학에 폭넓게 이용되나 임의의 자연 현상의 모든 것을 설명해주지는 않는다. 특히 근래에 들어 발생되는 지구온난화에 따른 이상기후 현상과 사상 유래가 없는 홍수들의 발생은 확정론적인 방법에 의존하기보다는 추계학적 방법을 도입한 수문량 확충 및 매개변수의 불확실성 분석의 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 이에 전 세계적으로 매개변수와 특성인자의 불확실성을 고려하고 인자들 간의 상관관계를 고려한 추계학적 방법 기반의 대책 수립이 추진되고 있는 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 추계학적 강우변동 생성기법을 이용하여 태풍기와 장마기에 해당하는 6월, 7월과 8월, 9월에 발생 가능한 다양한 무차원 누가강우량곡선을 Monte Carlo 기법을 도입하여 생성하였고 신뢰도 지수를 이용하여 하천제방의 위험도를 평가하였다. 본 연구결과는 강우의 지역적 특성 및 시간적 특성을 반영할 수 있어 해당 유역의 홍수대책 수립, 수공구조물 설계 및 분석 등 활용성이 매우 클 것으로 판단된다.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.87-95
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• 1997

A river water quality management model was made by Dynamic programming. This model optimizes the wastewater treatment cost of the application area, and computed water quality with it must meet the water quality standard. And this model takes into consideration tributary input, wastewater treatment plant effluent, withdrawls for several purposes. Modified Streeter-Phelps equation was used to calculate BOD and DO. Optimization problem was solved with particular exceedance probability flow, and the water quality of each point was calculated with the decided treatment efficiencies. At that time, the probability satisfying the water quality standard of constraints to the exceedance probability of the flow. The developed model was applied to the lower part of the Han-River. The reliability to meet the water quality standard is 70 % when 4 wastewater treatment plants of Seoul City are operated by activated sludge system at autumn of the year 2001. Treatment cost of this case is 121.288 billion won per year.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.123-138
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• 2010

This paper investigates a mathematical model of a system composed of two non-identical unit parallel system with common-cause failure, critical human error, non-critical human error, preventive maintenance and two type of repair, i.e. cheaper and costlier. This system goes for preventive maintenance at random epochs. We assume that the failure, repair and maintenance times are independent random variables. The failure rates, repair rates and preventive maintenance rate are constant for each unit. The system is analyzed by using the graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) to obtain various related measures and we study the effect of the preventive maintenance preventive maintenance on the system performance. Certain important results have been derived as special cases. The plots for the mean time to system failure and the steady-state availability A(${\infty}$) of the system are drawn for different parametric values.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제81권4호
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• pp.429-441
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• 2022

A probabilistic assessment of the seismic-excited buildings with a multiple-tuned-mass-damper (MTMD) system is carried out in the presence of uncertainties of the structural model, MTMD system, and the stochastic model of the seismic excitations. A free search optimization procedure of the individual mass, stiffness and, damping parameters of the MTMD system based on the snap-drift cuckoo search (SDCS) optimization algorithm is proposed for the optimal design of the MTMD system. Considering a 10-story structure in three cases equipped with single tuned mass damper (STMS), 5-TMD and 10-TMD, sensitivity analyses are carried out using Sobol' indices based on the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. Considering different seismic performance levels, the reliability analyses are done using MCS and kriging-based MCS methods. The results show the maximum structural responses are more affected by changes in the PGA and the stiffness coefficients of the structural floors and TMDs. The results indicate the kriging-based MCS method can estimate the accurate amount of failure probability by spending less time than the MCS. The results also show the MTMD gives a significant reduction in the structural failure probability. The effect of the MTMD on the reduction of the failure probability is remarkable in the performance levels of life safety and collapse prevention. The maximum drift of floors may be reduced for the nominal structural system by increasing the TMDs, however, the complexity of the MTMD model and increasing its corresponding uncertainty sources can be caused a slight increase in the failure probability of the structure.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.357-359
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• 2006

Traditional time based preventive maintenance is used to constant maintenance interval for equipment life. In order to consider economic aspect for time based preventive maintenance, preventive maintenance is scheduled by RCM(Reliability-Centered Maintenance) evaluation. So, Markov state model is utilized considering stochastic state in RCM. In this paper, a Markov state model which can be used for scheduling and optimization of maintenance is presented. The deterioration process of system condition is modeled by a Markov model. In case study, simulation results about RCM are used to the real historical data of combustion turbine generating units in Korean power systems.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.248-253
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• 2007

Traditional time based preventive maintenance is used to constant maintenance interval for equipment life. In order to consider economic aspect for time based preventive maintenance, preventive maintenance is scheduled by RCM(Reliability-Centered Maintenance) evaluation. So, Markov state model is utilized considering stochastic state in RCM. In this paper, a Markov state model which can be used for scheduling and optimization of maintenance is presented. The deterioration process of system condition is modeled by a Markov model. In case study, simulation results about RCM are used to the real historical data of combustion turbine generating units in Korean power systems.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제75권4호
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• pp.455-464
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• 2020

Reinforcement corrosion is one of the major problems in the durability of reinforced concrete structures exposed to aggressive environments. Deterioration caused by reinforcement corrosion reduces the durability and the safety margin of concrete structures, causing excessive costs in managing these structures safely. This paper aims to investigate the effects of reinforcement corrosion on the load bearing capacity deterioration of the corroded reinforced concrete structures. A new analytical method is proposed to predict the crack growth of cover concrete and evaluate the residual strength of concrete structures with corroded reinforcement failing in bond. The structural performance indicators, such as concrete crack growth and flexural strength deterioration rate, are assumed to be a stochastic process for lifetime distribution modelling of structural performance deterioration over time during the life cycle. The Weibull life evolution model is employed for analysing lifetime reliability and estimating remaining useful life of the corroded concrete structures. The results for the worked example show that the proposed approach can provide a reliable method for lifetime performance assessment of the corroded reinforced concrete structures.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제37권1B호
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• pp.50-58
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• 2012

본 연구의 주된 목적은 사용자 관점에서 본 통신 시스템 서비스 가용도의 이론적 모델 개발이다. 이를 위하여 호(Call) 도착은 non-homogeneous 포아손 과정의 가정, 그리고 시스템 상태는 CTMC 모델의 가정을 토대로 서비스 가용도의 추계적 모델을 개발하였다. 제시한 모델은 시간에 따라 변하는 호 도착률을 포함하여 사용자 관점에서 본 서비스 신뢰도 모형의 사용자 모델을 효율적으로 나타냈다. 아울러 시스템 자원의 고장 없이도 사용자가 서비스를 받지 못하는 시스템 상태인 운영 고장 상태를 모델에 포함하여 제공자 입장이 아니라 사용자 관점에서 모델을 구축하였다.