• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제7권6호
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• pp.1061-1070
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• 2014

An iterative hybrid structural dynamic reliability prediction model has been developed under multiple-time interval loads with and without consideration of stochastic structural strength degradation. Firstly, multiple-time interval loads have been substituted by the equivalent interval load. The equivalent interval load and structural strength are assumed as random variables. For structural reliability problem with random and interval variables, the interval variables can be converted to uniformly distributed random variables. Secondly, structural reliability with interval and stochastic variables is computed iteratively using the first order second moment method according to the stress-strength interference theory. Finally, the proposed method is verified by three examples which show that the method is practicable, rational and gives accurate prediction.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.13-29
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• 2005

This paper deals with the stochastic analysis of a three-states semi-Markov reliability model. Using both the maximum likelihood and Bayes procedures, the parameters included in this model are estimated. Next, assuming that the lifetime and repair time are generalized exponential random variables, the reliability function of this system is obtained. Then, the distribution of the first passage time of this system is discussed. Finally, some of the obtained results are compared with those available in the literature.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.51-63
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• 2016

Stress function of ball bearing is function of multiple stochastic factors and this system is so complex that analytical expression for reliability is difficult to obtain. To address this pressing problem, in this article, we have made an attempt to approximate system reliability of this important item based on reliability bounds under the stress strength setup. This article also provides level of error of this item. Numerical analysis has been adopted to show the closeness between the upper and lower bounds of this item.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.131-139
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• 1993

The newly proposed model of the future reliability results in earlier fault-fixes having a greater effect than the fault which make the greatest contribution to the overall failure rate tend to show themselves earlier, and so are fixed earlier. The suggested model allows a variety of reliability measures to be calculated. Predictions of total execution time(debugging time) is to achieve a target reliability. This model could also apply to computer-hardware reliability growth resulting from the elimination of design error and fault.

• 전산구조공학
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.97-108
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• 1992

이 논문에서는 구조시스템신뢰성해석에 있어서 부재의 파괴후 잔류강도의 불확실성을 고려하였다. 이를 위하여 확율유한요소법(Stochastic Finite Element Method: SFEM)을 시스템신뢰성해석과정에 접합하였다. 확율유한요소법은 신뢰성해석시 재료와 기하학적 변수의 불확실성을 좀더 함축적으로 고려할 수 있는 것으로 알려져 있으며, 본 논문에서 이 방법을 구조부재와 구조시스템의 신뢰성해석에 적용해 보았다. 이 논문의 방법과 파괴된 부재의 잔류응력을 확정적으로 취급하는 방법과 그 결과를 비교하였으며, 부재가 파괴된 후 그 잔류강도의 불확실성이 구조시스템 신뢰성에 주는 영향을 보기위해 여러 경우를 고찰해 보았다. 그 결과로부터 부재의 파괴 후 잔류강도가 구조시스템신뢰성에 대단히 큰 영향을 준다는 것을 다시 확인할 수 있었다. 이 논문의 여러경우에 대한 연구로 부터 좀 더 나은 구조시스템신뢰성의 평가를 위해서 부재의 파괴후 거동이 갖는 불확실성을 구조시스템신뢰성해석시, 특히 부재의 파괴후 거동이 semi-brittle인 경우에, 고려해야 한다는 결론을 내릴 수 있겠다. 이점을 받아들인다면 확율유한요소법이 구조시스템신뢰성해석에 있어서 적합한 방법일 것이다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.395-416
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• 2013

The magneto-rheological (MR) damper contributes to the new technology of structural vibration control. Its developments and applications have been paid significant attentions in earthquake engineering in recent years. Due to the shortages, however, inherent in deterministic control schemes where only several observed seismic accelerations are used as the trivial input and in classical stochastic optimal control theory with assumption of white noise process, the derived control policy cannot effectively accommodate the performance of randomly base-excited engineering structures. In this paper, the experimental and analytical studies on stochastic seismic response control of structures with specifically designed MR dampers are carried out. The random ground motion, as the base excitation posing upon the shaking table and the design load used for structural control system, is represented by the physically based stochastic ground motion model. Stochastic response analysis and reliability assessment of the tested structure are performed using the probability density evolution method and the theory of extreme value distribution. It is shown that the seismic response of the controlled structure with MR dampers gain a significant reduction compared with that of the uncontrolled structure, and the structural reliability is obviously strengthened as well.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.1-11
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• 2017

PURPOSES : This study is aimed at development of a stochastic pavement deterioration forecasting model using National Highway Pavement Condition Index (NHPCI) to support infrastructure asset management. Using this model, the deterioration process regarding life expectancy, deterioration speed change, and reliability were estimated. METHODS : Eight years of Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) data fused with traffic loads (Equivalent Single Axle Loads; ESAL) and structural capacity (Structural Number of Pavement; SNP) were used for the deterioration modeling. As an ideal stochastic model for asset management, Bayesian Markov multi-state exponential hazard model was introduced. RESULTS:The interval of NHPCI was empirically distributed from 8 to 2, and the estimation functions of individual condition indices (crack, rutting, and IRI) in conjunction with the NHPCI index were suggested. The derived deterioration curve shows that life expectancies for the preventive maintenance level was 8.34 years. The general life expectancy was 12.77 years and located in the statistical interval of 11.10-15.58 years at a 95.5% reliability level. CONCLUSIONS : This study originates and contributes to suggesting a simple way to develop a pavement deterioration model using the total condition index that considers road user satisfaction. A definition for level of service system and the corresponding life expectancies are useful for building long-term maintenance plan, especially in Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) work.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.138-148
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• 2012

경사제에 불규칙하게 작용하는 임의 크기의 다중하중으로 인해 피복재의 안정성에 대한 성능이 시간에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지를 해석할 수 있는 추계학적 신뢰성 해석 모형이 개발되었다. Hudson의 공식과 Melby 공식을 이용하여 재현기간에 따른 파고의 함수로 경사제 피복재의 초기 저항력 크기와 피해율을 확률적으로 산정할 수 있는 새로운 방법이 제시되었다. 생애기간에 대한 신뢰성 분석을 실시하여 시간에 따른 다중하중의 작용과 사용한계나 극한한계 등 한계상태에 따른 구조물의 성능을 올바로 해석할 수 있었다. 마지막으로 보수보강 목표확률을 시간에 따른 누적파괴확률의 결과와 조합하여 구조물 유지관리에서 가장 중요한 변수인 보수보강 시점을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 방법이 제시되었다.

• 한국농공학회지
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.116-127
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• 1994

A reliability analysis model for the frame structure which grafts the discretized ideal plastic method to the stochastic finite element method is introduced. The proposed method simmulates realistically the sequencial occurrence of plastic hinges and yields the probability of failure directly from the geometrical and material properties of a frame structure. The presented method can also take into account the uncertainties inherent in loads and resisten- ces through the stochastic finite element technique. The analysis results are compared with those of the Monte Carlo Simmulation, the Bound Theory, and the fs-unzipping method, and show good agreement.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.75-80
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• 2004

Relationships between inventory policy and operational availability of military equipment maintained under a logistics support system are analyzed. A continuous review inventory model with a stochastic demand typically used in a military logistics support is considered and some numerical studies are provided.