• Title/Summary/Keyword: Reliability Distribution

Search Result 2,861, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

A Study on the Application of Measures of Travel Time Variability by Analysis of Travel Time Distribution According to Weather Factor (기상요인에 따른 통행시간 분포 분석을 통한 통행시간 변동성 지표의 적정성 연구)

  • Kim, Jun-Won;Kim, Young-Chan
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.14 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1-13
    • /
    • 2015
  • Travellers consider extra travel time to be arriving their destination because of uncertainty of travel. So it is important to make predictable highway by providing information of travel time variability to traveller so as to enhance level of service at highway. In order to make predictable highway, it is necessary to develope measures of travel time variability that travellers can easily understand. Recently advanced country including the United States, travel time variability index are actively studied. In earlier study, 95percentile of travel time is considered to be most important calculation index of travel time variability. In this study, is has focused on the propriety analysis of 95percentile of travel time in domestic transportation environment. Result of analysis, All of measures(80percentile of travel time, 90percentile of travel time, 95percentile of travel time) show the tendency to increase when case of weather factor occur compare to normal condition under LOS A~D. Especially 95percentile of travel time increased sensitively.

Data processing system and spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment of GloSea5 model (GloSea5 모델의 자료처리 시스템 구축 및 시·공간적 재현성평가)

  • Moon, Soojin;Han, Soohee;Choi, Kwangsoon;Song, Junghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.49 no.9
    • /
    • pp.761-771
    • /
    • 2016
  • The GloSea5 (Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5) is provided and operated by the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). GloSea5 provides Forecast (FCST) and Hindcast (HCST) data and its horizontal resolution is about 60km ($0.83^{\circ}{\times}0.56^{\circ}$) in the mid-latitudes. In order to use this data in watershed-scale water management, GloSea5 needs spatial-temporal downscaling. As such, statistical downscaling was used to correct for systematic biases of variables and to improve data reliability. HCST data is provided in ensemble format, and the highest statistical correlation ($R^2=0.60$, RMSE = 88.92, NSE = 0.57) of ensemble precipitation was reported for the Yongdam Dam watershed on the #6 grid. Additionally, the original GloSea5 (600.1 mm) showed the greatest difference (-26.5%) compared to observations (816.1 mm) during the summer flood season. However, downscaled GloSea5 was shown to have only a -3.1% error rate. Most of the underestimated results corresponded to precipitation levels during the flood season and the downscaled GloSea5 showed important results of restoration in precipitation levels. Per the analysis results of spatial autocorrelation using seasonal Moran's I, the spatial distribution was shown to be statistically significant. These results can improve the uncertainty of original GloSea5 and substantiate its spatial-temporal accuracy and validity. The spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment will play a very important role as basic data for watershed-scale water management.

The Characteristics and Survival Rates of Evergreen Broad-Leaved Tree Plantations in Korea (난대상록활엽수종 조림지 활착률과 영향인자)

  • Park, Joon-Hyung;Jung, Su-Young;Lee, Kwang-Soo;Lee, Ho-Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.108 no.4
    • /
    • pp.513-521
    • /
    • 2019
  • With rapid climate change and increasing global warming, the distribution of evergreen broad-leaved trees (EBLTs) is gradually expanding to the inland regions of Korea. The aim of the present study was to analyze the survival rate of 148 EBLT plantations measuring 180 ha and to determine the optimal plantation size that would help in coping with climate change in the warm, temperate climate zone of the Korean peninsula. For enhancing the reliability of our estimated survival model, we selected a set of 11 control variables that may have also influenced the survival rates of the EBLTs in the 148 plantations. The results of partial correlation analysis showed that the survival rate of 67.0±26.9 of the EBLTs in the initial plantation year was primarily correlated with plantation type by the crown closure of the upper story of the forest, wind exposure, and precipitation. For predicting the probability of survival by quantification theory, 148 plots were surveyed and analyzed with 11 environmental site factors. Survival rate was in the order of plantation type by the crown closure of upper story of the forest, wind exposure, total cumulative precipitation for two weeks prior to planting, and slope stiffness in the descending order of score range in the estimated survival model for the EBLTs with the fact that survival rate increased with shade rate of upper story to some extent.

A Study on Mice Exposure Dose for Low-dose Gamma-irradiation Using Glass Dosimeter (유리선량계를 이용한 저선량 방사선의 마우스 피폭선량 연구)

  • Noh, Sung Jin;Kim, Hyo Jin;Kim, Hyun;Jeong, Dong Hyeok;Son, Tae Gen;Kim, Jung Ki;Yang, Kwangmo;Nam, Sang-Hee;Kang, Yeong-Rok
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.40 no.4
    • /
    • pp.202-210
    • /
    • 2015
  • The low dose radiation is done for a long period, thus researchers have to know the exact dose distribution for the irradiated mouse. This research has been conducted in order to find out methods in transmitting an exact dose to mouse in a mouse irradiation experiment carried out using $^{137}Cs$ irradiation equipment installed in the DIRAMS (Dongnam Institution of Radiological & Medical Sciences) research center. We developed a single mouse housing cage and shelf with adjustable geometric factors such as distance and angle from collimator. The measurement of irradiated dose showed a maximal 42% difference of absorbed dose from the desired dose in the conventional irradiation system, whereas only 6% difference of the absorbed dose was measured in the self-developed mouse apartment system. In addition, multi mice housing showed much difference of the absorbed dose in between head and body, compared to single mouse housing in the conventional irradiation system. This research may allow further research about biological effect assessment for the low dose irradiation using the self-developed mouse apartment to provide more exact doses which it tries to transmit, and to have more reliability for the biological analysis results.

A General Formula for Calculating the Value of Transverse Moment of Inertia by Observing the Roll Motion of Ships (횡요상태 관측에 의한 선체 횡관성모멘트 값의 도출을 위한 일반식)

  • Choi, Soon-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.21 no.5
    • /
    • pp.538-542
    • /
    • 2015
  • The transverse moment of inertia is an indispensable factor in analyzing the roll motion characteristics of ships and the calculating method needs to be based on the more reasonable theories when deciding the value as the results and reliability of analysis could be much affected by the correctness. However, the mass distribution and shape of hulls are quite complicated and give much difficulties in case of calculating the value directly from the ship design data, furthermore even acquiring the detailed design data for calculation is almost impossible. Therefore some simpler ways are practically adopted in the assumption that the gyradius of roll moment can be decided by a given ratio and hull width. It is well known that the responses of the free roll decay are varied according to the value of roll moment in view of roll period and amplitude decay ratio, so that the general formula to get the moment value can be derived also from the observation of roll decay responses. This study presents how the roll period and decay ratio are interrelated each other from the roll motion characteristics with suggesting a general formula to be able to calculate roll moment from it. Finally, the obtained general formula has been applied to a ship data to check the resultant characteristics through analyzing graphs and showed that the roll moment becomes more accurate when rolling period and decay ratio are considered together in calculation.

Possible Causes of Paleosecular Variation and Deflection of Geomagnetic Directions Recorded by Lava Flows on the Island of Hawaii

  • Czango Baag
    • Proceedings of the International Union of Geodesy And Geophysics Korea Journal of Geophysical Research Conference
    • /
    • 2003.05a
    • /
    • pp.20-20
    • /
    • 2003
  • In the summers of 1997 and 1998 and in February of 2000 we made 570 measurements of the ambient geomagnetic field 120 cm above the pavement surface of State Route 130, south of Pahoa, the island of Hawaii using a three-component fluxgate magnetometer. We measured at every 15.2 m (50 feet) interval covering a distance of 6, 310 m (20, 704 ft) where both historic and pre-historic highly magnetic basalt flows underlie. We also collected 197 core samples from eight road cuts, 489 specimens of which were subject to AF demagnetizations at 5 - 10 mT level up to a maximum field of 60 mT. We observed significant inclination anomalies ranging from a minimum of $31^{\circ}$ to a maximum $40^{\circ}$ where a uniform inclination value of $36.7^{\circ}$ (International Geomagnetic Reference Field, IGRF) was expected. Since the mean of the observed inclinations is approximately $35^{\circ}$ we assume that the study area is slightly affected by the magnetic terrain effect to a systematically shallower inclinations for being located in the regionally sloping surface of the southern side of the island (Baag, et al., 1995). We observed inclination anomalies showing wider (spacial) wavelength (160 - 600 m) and higher amplitudes in the historic lava flows area than in the northern pre-historic flows. Our observations imply that preexisting inclination anomalies such as those that we observed would have been interpreted as paleosecular variation (PSV). These inclination anomalies can best be attributed to concealed underground highly magnetic dikes, channel type lava flows, on-and-off hydrothermal activities through fissure-like openings, etc. Both the within- and between-site dispersions of natural remanent magnetization (NRM) are largest (up to ${\pm}7^{\circ}$) above the flows of 1955, while the area of pre-historic flows in the northern part of the study area exhibit the smallest dispersion. Nevertheless, mean inclinations of each historic flow of 1955 and 1790 are almost identical to that of the corresponding present field, whereas mean of NRM (after AF demagnetization) inclinations for each of the four pre-historic lava flow units is twelve to thirteen degrees lower than the present field inclination. We observed three cases of very large inclination variations from within a single flow, the best fitting curves of which are linear, second and third order polynomials each from within a single flow, whereas no present field variations are observed. This phenomena can be attributed to the notion that local magnetic anomalies on the surface of an active volcano are not permanent, but are transient. Therefore we believe that local magnetic anomalies of an active volcano may be constantly modified due to on going subsurface injections and circulations of hot material and also due to wide spacial and temporal distribution of highly magnetic basaltic flows that will constantly modify the topography which will in turn modify the local ambient geomagnetic field (Baag, et al., 1995). Our observations bring into question the general reliability of PSV data inferred from volcanic rocks, because on-going various geologic and geophysical activities associated with active volcano would continuously deflect and modify the ambient geomagnetic field.

  • PDF

The Effect of Addictive Shopping Orientation on Post-purchase Emotions and Behaviors (패션제품 중독구매성향이 구매 후 감정 및 행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jin-Hwa;Lee, Jeong-O
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.30 no.4
    • /
    • pp.195-227
    • /
    • 2011
  • There is no doubt that distribution channels and services greatly satisfy consumers' desires. Lots of products and services, stimulate consumers to purchase products to relieve their depressed feeling/stress temporarily, leading them gradually to a shopping addiction. Shopping addiction generates lots of problems, damaging not only consumers themselves but also other consumers and the entire society. Therefore, the purposes of this study were 1) to examine psychological factors that affected addictive shopping orientation of consumers, 2) to explore the effects addictive shopping orientation on the post-purchase emotions(positive emotion/negative emotion), 3) to examine the effect of post-purchase emotions on post-purchase behaviors (repurchasing/refund and exchange/negative word of mouth). 4) the study explored the differences in terms of effects of addictive shopping orientations on post-purchase emotions and behaviors, depending on the retailing channel (online and off line). The study performed a questionnaire survey for female adults older than 18 years old, living Seoul and Pusan areas. By using 404 copies for questionnaires, factor analysis, reliability analysis, and Amos 7.0 were used for the data analysis. It was found that psychological variables, self-esteem, compensatory buying and impulsiveness, had significant effects on addictive shopping orientations. Addictive shopping orientations affect both positive and negative post-purchase emotions in case of off-line shopping. Negative post-purchase emotions have higher impact on the postpurchase behaviors than positive post-purchase emotions.

  • PDF

An Enhanced System of Group Key Management Based on MIPUF in IoT (IoT 환경의 MIPUF 기반 그룹키 관리 시스템 개선)

  • Tak, Geum Ji;Jeong, Ik Rae;Byun, Jin Wook
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
    • /
    • v.29 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1243-1257
    • /
    • 2019
  • With the emergence of the IoT environment, various smart devices provide consumers with the convenience and various services. However, as security threats such as invasion of privacy have been reported, the importance of security issues in the IoT environment has emerged, and in particular, the security problem of key management has been discussed, and the PUF has been discussed as a countermeasure. In relation to the key management problem, a protocol using MIPUF has been proposed for the security problem of the group key management system. The system can be applied to lightweight IoT environments and the safety of the PUF ensures the safety of the entire system. However, in some processes, it shows vulnerabilities in terms of safety and efficiency of operation. This paper improves the existing protocol by adding authentication for members, ensuring data independence, reducing unnecessary operations, and increasing the efficiency of database searches. Safety analysis is performed for a specific attack and efficiency analysis results are presented by comparing the computational quantities. Through this, this paper shows that the reliability of data can be improved and our proposed method is lighter than existing protocol.

Analysis of Network Traffic with Urban Area Characteristics for Mobile Network Traffic Model (이동통신 네트워크 트래픽 모델을 위한 도시 지역 이동통신 트래픽 특성 분석)

  • Yoon, Young-Hyun
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
    • /
    • v.10C no.4
    • /
    • pp.471-478
    • /
    • 2003
  • Traditionally,, analysis, simulation and measurement have all been used to evaluate the performance of network protocols and functional entities that support mobile wireless service. Simulation methods are useful for testing the complex systems which have the very complicate interactions between components. To develop a mobile call simulator which is used to examine, validate, and predict the performance of mobile wireless call procedures must have the teletraffic model, which is to describe the mobile communication environments. Mobile teletraffic model is consists of 2 sub-models, traffic source and network traffic model. In this paper, we analyzed the network traffic data which are gathered from selected Base Stations (BSs) to define the mobile teletraffic model. We defined 4 types of cell location-Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Afforest zone. We selected some Base Stations (BSs) which are represented cell location types in Seoul city, and gathered real data from them And then, we present the call rate per hour, cail distribution pattern per day, busy hours, loose hours, the maximum number of call, and the minimum number of calls based on defined cell location types. Those parameters are very important to test the mobile communication system´s performance and reliability and are very useful for defining the mobile network traffic model or for working the existed mobile simulation programs as input parameters.

A Evaluation Model of AHP Results Using Monte Carlo Simulation (Depending on the Case Studies of Road and Rail) (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 통한 AHP결과 해석모형개발 (도로 및 철도부문 사례를 중심으로))

  • Sul, You-Jin;Chung, Sung-Bong;Song, Ki-Han;Chon, Kyung-Soo;Rhee, Sung-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.195-204
    • /
    • 2008
  • Multi-Criteria Analysis is one method for optimizing decisions that include numerous characteristics and objective functions. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used as a general Multi-Criteria Analysis considering many critical issues. However, since validation procedures for the decision reliability of AHP valuers had been left off existing methodologies, a new methodology including such validation procedures is required to make more reliable decisions. In this research, idea decision results are derived using Monte Carlo Simulation in cases where AHP valuers do not have expertise in the specific project, and these results are compared with the results derived from experts to develop a new analysis model to make more reliable decisions. Finally, this new analysis is applied to various field case studies of road and rail carried out by the Korea Development Institute (KDI) between 2003 and 2006 to validate the new analysis model. The study found that approximately 20% of decisions resulting from the existing methodology are considered prudent. In future studies, the authors suggest analyzing the correlation between initial weights and final results since final results are enormously influenced by the initial weight.