• 농촌계획
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.149-164
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• 2012

The purpose of the present study is to construct a rural development strategy from the nexus between spatial changes in specialized crops and suitable cultivation area of the crops. This paper pays particular attention to identify product life cycle of specialized crops in rural areas and estimate the impact of climate change on alterations in spatial distribution of the crops. In order to do so, first of all, this study applies multi-level model (Random coefficient model) to estimate the regional coefficient of five orchard crops. It utilizes the data 1995 to 2010 Korea Agricultural Census. Futhermore, it also adopts overlay analysis by ArcGIS to identify the development path of the crops and the relationship with climate change. Based on the results, it suggests a mechanism activating regional agriculture. The findings propose re-searching and relocating specialized regions of the crops. Especially, it proves each rural area can drive the new agricultural strategy to strengthen regional agriculture by estimating the relationship between development of specialized crops and suitable cultivation areas. For instance, shifting specialized crops in particular regions and enriching genetic or species varieties can be primary measures and it will contribute to improve the reliable base for income sources in the rural communities. This paper also offers specific policy implications regarding rural development plans in response to crops' life cycle and climate changes.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.189-200
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• 2014

The tropical wet evergreen, tropical semi evergreen and moist deciduous forest types are projected to be impacted by climate change. In the Western Ghats region, a biodiversity hotspot, evergreen forests including semi evergreen account for 30% of the forest area and according to climate change impact model projections, nearly a third of these forest types are likely to undergo vegetation type change. Similarly, tropical moist deciduous forests which account for about 28% of the forest area are likely to experience change in about 20% of the area. Thus climate change could adversely impact forest biodiversity and product flow to the forest dependent households and communities in Uttara Kannada district of the Western Ghats. This study analyses the distribution of non-timber forest product yielding tree species through a network of twelve 1-ha permanent plots established in the district. Further, the extent of dependence of communities on forests is ascertained through questionnaire surveys. On an average 21% and 28% of the tree species in evergreen and deciduous forest types, respectively are, non-timber forest product yielding tree species, indicating potential high levels of supply of products to communities. Community dependence on non-timber forest products is significant, and it contributes to Rs. 1199 and Rs. 3561/household in the evergreen and deciduous zones, respectively. Given that the bulk of the forest grids in Uttara Kannada district are projected to undergo change, bulk of the species which provide multiple forest products are projected to experience die back and even mortality. Incorporation of climate change projections and impacts in forest planning and management is necessary to enable forest ecosystems to enhance resilience.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.431-444
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• 2012

We simulated and compared present and future ocean circulation in the East China Sea using an East Asia Regional Ocean model. Mean climate states for 1990~1999 and 2030~2039 were used as surface conditions for simulations of present and future ocean circulation, which were derived from the simulations of three different global climate models, ECHAM5-MPI, GFDL-CM2.0 and MIROC3.2_hires, for the 20th century and those of 21st century as projected by the IPCC SRES A1B. East Asia Regional Ocean model simulated the detailed patterns of temperature, salinity and current fields under present and future climate conditions and their changes instead of the simple structures of global climate models. To some extent, there are consistent ocean circulation changes derived from the three pairs corresponding to the global climate model in so much as the temperature increases not only in winter but summer at both the surface and bottom and that temperature and salinity changes are prominent near the Chinese coast and in the Changjiang bank. However, the simulated circulations are different among each other depending on the prescribed atmospheric conditions not only under present climate but also with regard to future climate conditions. There is not a coincident tendency in ocean circulation changes between present and future simulations derived from the three pairs. This suggests that more simulations with different pairs are needed.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.315-324
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• 2016

The relevant ministries, including the Ministry of Environment in Korea, provided Post-2020 Long-term Mitigation Target and Implementation Plan. The plan consisted of four Business As Usual (BAU) reduction levels by 14.7%, 19.2%, 25.7%, and 31.3% until 2030. The Korean government finalized the mitigation target of 37%. But all the initial alternatives were below the goal, 30% from BAU, that has been promised to the international community as well as set out in the Framework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth. In order to achieve a specific goal, performance management should pursue "Justify doing the right things." Otherwise, performance management would not work properly. According to Kingdon's Policy Stream Framework, abnormal alternatives are difficult to be presented as scenarios because alternative building should focus on the role of the need to adhere to the basic principles and professionals. Such a result is possible only when the policy actors does not balance themselves. Performance management statistics has been analyzed by 6 years CCPI data since 2011, taking into account the impact after enactment. This study also has been complemented by a variety of sources, including the media, documents, and artifacts during the period. As a result, raising awareness about climate change was analyzed as one of the solutions because the climate change issue affects the normal performance management throughout the life of the people to stay linked to the environment.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국농림기상학회 2013년도 추계 학술발표논문집
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• pp.60-66
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• 2013

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제21권spc호
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• pp.51-60
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 이용하여 지점빈도해석(At-site Frequency Analysis, AFA)과 지역빈도해석(Regional Frequency Analysis, RFA) 등을 수행하였고, Monte Carlo simulation을 통한 RRMSE(relative root mean squared error) 값을 비교·분석함으로써 각 빈도해석 방법에 따른 성능을 평가하고자 하였다. 확률강우량 산정을 위하여 기상청에서 국가표준시나리오로 제공하는 RCM(Regional Climate Model) 자료 중 하나인 HadGEM3-RA(12.5km) 기후모델 자료로부터 우리나라 615개 지점에 대한 일 강우 자료를 추출하였고, 자료의 편의보정(bias correction)과 공간상세화(spatial disaggregation)를 위하여 분위사상법(quantile mapping)과 역거리제곱법(inverse distance squared method)을 적용하였다. 분석 결과 지역빈도해석 방법이 지점빈도해석보다 정확하게 확률강우량을 산정하는 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 기후변화 시나리오 기반의 확률강우량 산정시 지역빈도해석의 결과가 보다 합리적인 전망 결과를 도출할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제51권4호
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• pp.7-13
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• 2009

The paddy irrigation demand for Nakdong river basin in Korea due to the climate change have been analyzed using regional climate model outputs. High-resolution (27 ${\times}$ 27 km) climate data for SRES A2 scenario produced by the Meteorological Research Institute (METRI), South Korea, and the observed baseline climatology dataset (1971-2000) were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by METRI. Maps showing the predicted spatial variations of changes in climate parameters and paddy irrigation requirements have been produced using the geographic information system. The results of this study showed that the average growing season temperature will increase steadily by 1.5 $^{\circ}C$ (2020s A2), 3.2 $^{\circ}C$ (2050s A2) and 5.2 $^{\circ}C$ (2080s A2) from the baseline (1971-2000) 19.8 $^{\circ}C$. The average growing season rainfall will change by -3.4 % (2020s A2), 0.0 % (2050s A2) and +16.5 % (2080s A2) from the baseline value 886 mm. Assuming paddy area and cropping pattern remain unchanged the average volumetric irrigation demands were predicted to increase by 5.3 % (2020s A2), 8.1 % (2050s A2) and 2.2 % (2080s A2) from the baseline value 1.159 ${\times}$ $10^6\; m^3$. These projections are different from the previous study by Chung (2009) which used a different GCM and downscaling method and projected decreasing irrigation demands. This indicates that one should be careful in interpreting the results of similar studies.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.125-137
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• 2013

기후변화에 따른 기상변화로 인하여 집중호우 및 돌발홍수 등의 빈도가 증가하고 있다. IPCC 4차 보고서(2007)는 21세기 후반까지 온도상승으로 인한 폭우 및 태풍이 점차 강력해질 것이라는 예측을 하고 있다. 영국에서 발간한 Flood Estimation Handbook(Institute of Hydrology, 1999)에 의하면 대상자료의 기간이 구하려는 재현기간보다 작은 경우에는 지점빈도해석은 적절하지 않으므로, 지역빈도해석을 추천하고 있다. 이에 본 논문은 기후변화를 고려한 빈도해석을 수행하였으며, 이에 앞서 세계기상기구에서 제시한 기후지수를 이용하여 기후변화를 평가하고, 기상청 지역기후모델(KMA-RegCM3)의 강우 자료를 이용하여 기상청 산하 58개 관측소에 대하여 지역빈도해석을 실시하였다. Hosking와 wallis(1993)이 제안한 L-moment 알고리즘을 이용하여 지역빈도해석을 수행하였으며, 그 결과 일부지역을 제외한 대부분의 지역에서 강수량이 증가하였으며, 현재 기간 대비 7~10%의 증가율을 나타내었다. 미래 기후변화의 영향으로 중 남부지방은 상대적으로 강우량이 증가할 것으로 보이며, 미래 강우량에 따른 설계빈도를 재설정 및 강수량이 증가하는 지역에 대한 확률수문량의 적용이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.31-41
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• 2011

This study was conducted to predict future land-cover changes under climate change scenarios and to cluster analysis of regional land-cover characteristics. To simulate the future land-cover according to climate change scenarios - A1B, A2, and B1 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation with socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. Gyeonggi-do were selected as study areas. The simulation results from 2010 to 2040 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. All scenarios resulted in a gradual decrease in paddy area, while upland area continuously increased. A1B scenario showed the highest increase in built-up area, but all scenarios showed only slight changes in forest area. As a result of cluster analysis with the land-cover component scores, 31 si/gun in Gyeonggi-do were classified into three clusters. This approach is expected to be useful for evaluating and simulating land-use changes in relation to development constraints and scenarios. The results could be used as fundamental basis for providing policy direction by considering regional land-cover characteristics.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2015

Whilst it is clear that increasing temperatures from global environmental change will impact the positions of alpine treelines, it is likely that a range of regional and local scaled factors will mediate the overall impact of global scale climate drivers. We summarized 12 categories of abiotic and biotic factors as 4 groups determining treeline positions. First, there are global factors related to climate-induced growth limitation and carbon limitation. Second, there are seven regional and local factors related to treeline dynamics including frost stress, topography, water stress, snow, wind, fire and non-fire disturbance. Third, species-specific factors can control treeline dynamics through their influence on reproduction and life history traits. Fourth, there are positive feedbacks in structuring the dynamics of treelines. Globally, the commonly accepted growth limitation hypothesis is that growth at a treeline is limited by temperature. Meanwhile, positive feedbacks between canopy cover and tree establishment are likely to control the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of many treelines. The presence of non-linear dynamics at treelines has implications for the use of treelines as barometers of climate change because the lagged responses and abrupt shifts inherent in non-equilibrium systems may combine to mask the overall climate trend.