• Title/Summary/Keyword: Recommendation Decision Model

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Research on rapid source term estimation in nuclear accident emergency decision for pressurized water reactor based on Bayesian network

  • Wu, Guohua;Tong, Jiejuan;Zhang, Liguo;Yuan, Diping;Xiao, Yiqing
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.2534-2546
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    • 2021
  • Nuclear emergency preparedness and response is an essential part to ensure the safety of nuclear power plant (NPP). Key support technologies of nuclear emergency decision-making usually consist of accident diagnosis, source term estimation, accident consequence assessment, and protective action recommendation. Source term estimation is almost the most difficult part among them. For example, bad communication, incomplete information, as well as complicated accident scenario make it hard to determine the reactor status and estimate the source term timely in the Fukushima accident. Subsequently, it leads to the hard decision on how to take appropriate emergency response actions. Hence, this paper aims to develop a method for rapid source term estimation to support nuclear emergency decision making in pressurized water reactor NPP. The method aims to make our knowledge on NPP provide better support nuclear emergency. Firstly, this paper studies how to build a Bayesian network model for the NPP based on professional knowledge and engineering knowledge. This paper presents a method transforming the PRA model (event trees and fault trees) into a corresponding Bayesian network model. To solve the problem that some physical phenomena which are modeled as pivotal events in level 2 PRA, cannot find sensors associated directly with their occurrence, a weighted assignment approach based on expert assessment is proposed in this paper. Secondly, the monitoring data of NPP are provided to the Bayesian network model, the real-time status of pivotal events and initiating events can be determined based on the junction tree algorithm. Thirdly, since PRA knowledge can link the accident sequences to the possible release categories, the proposed method is capable to find the most likely release category for the candidate accidents scenarios, namely the source term. The probabilities of possible accident sequences and the source term are calculated. Finally, the prototype software is checked against several sets of accident scenario data which are generated by the simulator of AP1000-NPP, including large loss of coolant accident, loss of main feedwater, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture. The results show that the proposed method for rapid source term estimation under nuclear emergency decision making is promising.

A Study on the Effect of Network Centralities on Recommendation Performance (네트워크 중심성 척도가 추천 성능에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.23-46
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    • 2021
  • Collaborative filtering, which is often used in personalization recommendations, is recognized as a very useful technique to find similar customers and recommend products to them based on their purchase history. However, the traditional collaborative filtering technique has raised the question of having difficulty calculating the similarity for new customers or products due to the method of calculating similaritiesbased on direct connections and common features among customers. For this reason, a hybrid technique was designed to use content-based filtering techniques together. On the one hand, efforts have been made to solve these problems by applying the structural characteristics of social networks. This applies a method of indirectly calculating similarities through their similar customers placed between them. This means creating a customer's network based on purchasing data and calculating the similarity between the two based on the features of the network that indirectly connects the two customers within this network. Such similarity can be used as a measure to predict whether the target customer accepts recommendations. The centrality metrics of networks can be utilized for the calculation of these similarities. Different centrality metrics have important implications in that they may have different effects on recommended performance. In this study, furthermore, the effect of these centrality metrics on the performance of recommendation may vary depending on recommender algorithms. In addition, recommendation techniques using network analysis can be expected to contribute to increasing recommendation performance even if they apply not only to new customers or products but also to entire customers or products. By considering a customer's purchase of an item as a link generated between the customer and the item on the network, the prediction of user acceptance of recommendation is solved as a prediction of whether a new link will be created between them. As the classification models fit the purpose of solving the binary problem of whether the link is engaged or not, decision tree, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine (SVM) are selected in the research. The data for performance evaluation used order data collected from an online shopping mall over four years and two months. Among them, the previous three years and eight months constitute social networks composed of and the experiment was conducted by organizing the data collected into the social network. The next four months' records were used to train and evaluate recommender models. Experiments with the centrality metrics applied to each model show that the recommendation acceptance rates of the centrality metrics are different for each algorithm at a meaningful level. In this work, we analyzed only four commonly used centrality metrics: degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality. Eigenvector centrality records the lowest performance in all models except support vector machines. Closeness centrality and betweenness centrality show similar performance across all models. Degree centrality ranking moderate across overall models while betweenness centrality always ranking higher than degree centrality. Finally, closeness centrality is characterized by distinct differences in performance according to the model. It ranks first in logistic regression, artificial neural network, and decision tree withnumerically high performance. However, it only records very low rankings in support vector machine and K-neighborhood with low-performance levels. As the experiment results reveal, in a classification model, network centrality metrics over a subnetwork that connects the two nodes can effectively predict the connectivity between two nodes in a social network. Furthermore, each metric has a different performance depending on the classification model type. This result implies that choosing appropriate metrics for each algorithm can lead to achieving higher recommendation performance. In general, betweenness centrality can guarantee a high level of performance in any model. It would be possible to consider the introduction of proximity centrality to obtain higher performance for certain models.

Effects of Service Quality on Customer Satisfaction, Brand Image, and Customer Loyalty of Female University Students in a Coffee Shop (여대생들의 커피 전문점 서비스 품질 인식이 고객 만족, 브랜드 이미지, 고객 충성도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Byoungsoo;Yoon, Jimi;Moon, Shin-Young
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.12
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    • pp.428-438
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    • 2013
  • In the highly competitive coffee market, each coffee shop is striving to improve customer loyalty by providing a high level of service quality. To deepen our understanding of service quality in the coffee shop market, this study identifies the key elements of service quality of coffee shops and investigates their impacts on decision-making processes of female university students. This study also investigates the effects of customer satisfaction and brand image on customer loyalty in a coffee shop market. Moreover, it considers the two critical customer loyalty: repurchasing intention and recommendation intention. Data collected from 206 female university students were empirically tested against a research model using partial least squares. Analysis results showed that service product and service delivery significantly affect customer satisfaction and brand image whereas service intangible and service environment do not significantly influence on them. Customer satisfaction and brand image play an important role on the formation of repurchasing and recommendation intention.

Clustering Algorithm using the DFP-Tree based on the MapReduce (맵리듀스 기반 DFP-Tree를 이용한 클러스터링 알고리즘)

  • Seo, Young-Won;Kim, Chang-soo
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2015
  • As BigData is issued, many applications that operate based on the results of data analysis have been developed, typically applications are products recommend service of e-commerce application service system, search service on the search engine service and friend list recommend system of social network service. In this paper, we suggests a decision frequent pattern tree that is combined the origin frequent pattern tree that is mining similar pattern to appear in the data set of the existing data mining techniques and decision tree based on the theory of computer science. The decision frequent pattern tree algorithm improves about problem of frequent pattern tree that have to make some a lot's pattern so it is to hard to analyze about data. We also proposes to model for a Mapredue framework that is a programming model to help to operate in distributed environment.

The Development of a Tool for Selection of LAN Switch with QoS (QoS를 고려한 LAN 스위치 선정 도구 개발)

  • Lee, Phil-Jai;Lee, Jong-Moo;Shin, In-Chul
    • The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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    • v.4 no.10
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    • pp.2533-2543
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    • 1997
  • It is necessary to understand and apply the concept of Quality of Service(QoS) for the objective selection among the computer network equipment. Because ITU-T E.800 recommendation covers the service quality of provider's viewpoint and the satisfaction of user, it can be used to evaluate and select the product of computer network systems. This paper is concerned with the development of an evaluation model using QoS and software tool for selection of the most suitable LAN switch. We apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) method of Saaty which has been in a multiple criteria framework for an effective group decision process to the selection of LAN switch. The sample data are collected and processed from a questionnaire of professionals in the network field. And we implement a prototype tool for the selection of LAN switch according to the suggested selection model and analyse the result. The result of our research is expected to be a useful tool for decision making to evaluate and select the LAN switch and also can be applied to the decision making of evaluation and selection related to the product of computer network with QoS.

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Research on Mining Technology for Explainable Decision Making (설명가능한 의사결정을 위한 마이닝 기술)

  • Kyungyong Chung
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.186-191
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    • 2023
  • Data processing techniques play a critical role in decision-making, including handling missing and outlier data, prediction, and recommendation models. This requires a clear explanation of the validity, reliability, and accuracy of all processes and results. In addition, it is necessary to solve data problems through explainable models using decision trees, inference, etc., and proceed with model lightweight by considering various types of learning. The multi-layer mining classification method that applies the sixth principle is a method that discovers multidimensional relationships between variables and attributes that occur frequently in transactions after data preprocessing. This explains how to discover significant relationships using mining on transactions and model the data through regression analysis. It develops scalable models and logistic regression models and proposes mining techniques to generate class labels through data cleansing, relevance analysis, data transformation, and data augmentation to make explanatory decisions.

A Study on the Improvement of Recommendation Accuracy by Using Category Association Rule Mining (카테고리 연관 규칙 마이닝을 활용한 추천 정확도 향상 기법)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.27-42
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    • 2020
  • Traditional companies with offline stores were unable to secure large display space due to the problems of cost. This limitation inevitably allowed limited kinds of products to be displayed on the shelves, which resulted in consumers being deprived of the opportunity to experience various items. Taking advantage of the virtual space called the Internet, online shopping goes beyond the limits of limitations in physical space of offline shopping and is now able to display numerous products on web pages that can satisfy consumers with a variety of needs. Paradoxically, however, this can also cause consumers to experience the difficulty of comparing and evaluating too many alternatives in their purchase decision-making process. As an effort to address this side effect, various kinds of consumer's purchase decision support systems have been studied, such as keyword-based item search service and recommender systems. These systems can reduce search time for items, prevent consumer from leaving while browsing, and contribute to the seller's increased sales. Among those systems, recommender systems based on association rule mining techniques can effectively detect interrelated products from transaction data such as orders. The association between products obtained by statistical analysis provides clues to predicting how interested consumers will be in another product. However, since its algorithm is based on the number of transactions, products not sold enough so far in the early days of launch may not be included in the list of recommendations even though they are highly likely to be sold. Such missing items may not have sufficient opportunities to be exposed to consumers to record sufficient sales, and then fall into a vicious cycle of a vicious cycle of declining sales and omission in the recommendation list. This situation is an inevitable outcome in situations in which recommendations are made based on past transaction histories, rather than on determining potential future sales possibilities. This study started with the idea that reflecting the means by which this potential possibility can be identified indirectly would help to select highly recommended products. In the light of the fact that the attributes of a product affect the consumer's purchasing decisions, this study was conducted to reflect them in the recommender systems. In other words, consumers who visit a product page have shown interest in the attributes of the product and would be also interested in other products with the same attributes. On such assumption, based on these attributes, the recommender system can select recommended products that can show a higher acceptance rate. Given that a category is one of the main attributes of a product, it can be a good indicator of not only direct associations between two items but also potential associations that have yet to be revealed. Based on this idea, the study devised a recommender system that reflects not only associations between products but also categories. Through regression analysis, two kinds of associations were combined to form a model that could predict the hit rate of recommendation. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, another regression model was also developed based only on associations between products. Comparative experiments were designed to be similar to the environment in which products are actually recommended in online shopping malls. First, the association rules for all possible combinations of antecedent and consequent items were generated from the order data. Then, hit rates for each of the associated rules were predicted from the support and confidence that are calculated by each of the models. The comparative experiments using order data collected from an online shopping mall show that the recommendation accuracy can be improved by further reflecting not only the association between products but also categories in the recommendation of related products. The proposed model showed a 2 to 3 percent improvement in hit rates compared to the existing model. From a practical point of view, it is expected to have a positive effect on improving consumers' purchasing satisfaction and increasing sellers' sales.

FRM: Foundation-policy Recommendation Model to Improve the Performance of NAND Flash Memory

  • Won Ho Lee;Jun-Hyeong Choi;Jong Wook Kwak
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.8
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2023
  • Recently, NAND flash memories have replaced magnetic disks due to non-volatility, high capacity and high resistance, in various computer systems but it has disadvantages which are the limited lifespan and imbalanced operation latency. Therefore, many page replacement policies have been studied to overcome the disadvantages of NAND flash memories. Although it is clear that these policies reflect execution characteristics of various environments and applications, researches on the foundation-policy decision for disk buffer management are insufficient. Thus, in this paper, we propose a foundation-policy recommendation model, called FRM for effectively utilizing NAND flash memories. FRM proposes a suitable page replacement policy by classifying and analyzing characteristics of workloads through machine learning. As an implementation case, we introduce FRM with a disk buffer management policy and in experiment results, prediction accuracy and weighted average of FRM shows 92.85% and 88.97%, by training dataset and validation dataset for foundation disk buffer management policy, respectively.

A Study on Development of Functional Recommendation for Planning Emergency Response Using Model-Based Approach (모델링 기반 사고 대응 절차 수립 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Seol, Ji Woo;Chae, Chung Keon;Lee, Kyung Jin;Moon, Myong Hwan;Ko, Jae Wook
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.195-200
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    • 2017
  • Emergency response guidelines play an important role which reduce consequence of accident. For development of useful emergency response guidelines, engineering methodology should be applied to the development procedures. In this study accident propagation model, bow-tie methods, emergency response decision methods were applied to existing emergency response guideline develop procedure. In this way, this study suggest generalized emergency response guideline develop procedures. Also a sheet was developed using suggested procedures to make sample guidelines for a case.

Product Recommender Systems using Multi-Model Ensemble Techniques (다중모형조합기법을 이용한 상품추천시스템)

  • Lee, Yeonjeong;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2013
  • Recent explosive increase of electronic commerce provides many advantageous purchase opportunities to customers. In this situation, customers who do not have enough knowledge about their purchases, may accept product recommendations. Product recommender systems automatically reflect user's preference and provide recommendation list to the users. Thus, product recommender system in online shopping store has been known as one of the most popular tools for one-to-one marketing. However, recommender systems which do not properly reflect user's preference cause user's disappointment and waste of time. In this study, we propose a novel recommender system which uses data mining and multi-model ensemble techniques to enhance the recommendation performance through reflecting the precise user's preference. The research data is collected from the real-world online shopping store, which deals products from famous art galleries and museums in Korea. The data initially contain 5759 transaction data, but finally remain 3167 transaction data after deletion of null data. In this study, we transform the categorical variables into dummy variables and exclude outlier data. The proposed model consists of two steps. The first step predicts customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in the online shopping store. In this step, we first use logistic regression, decision trees, and artificial neural networks to predict customers who have high likelihood to purchase products in each product group. We perform above data mining techniques using SAS E-Miner software. In this study, we partition datasets into two sets as modeling and validation sets for the logistic regression and decision trees. We also partition datasets into three sets as training, test, and validation sets for the artificial neural network model. The validation dataset is equal for the all experiments. Then we composite the results of each predictor using the multi-model ensemble techniques such as bagging and bumping. Bagging is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Aggregation" and it composite outputs from several machine learning techniques for raising the performance and stability of prediction or classification. This technique is special form of the averaging method. Bumping is the abbreviation of "Bootstrap Umbrella of Model Parameter," and it only considers the model which has the lowest error value. The results show that bumping outperforms bagging and the other predictors except for "Poster" product group. For the "Poster" product group, artificial neural network model performs better than the other models. In the second step, we use the market basket analysis to extract association rules for co-purchased products. We can extract thirty one association rules according to values of Lift, Support, and Confidence measure. We set the minimum transaction frequency to support associations as 5%, maximum number of items in an association as 4, and minimum confidence for rule generation as 10%. This study also excludes the extracted association rules below 1 of lift value. We finally get fifteen association rules by excluding duplicate rules. Among the fifteen association rules, eleven rules contain association between products in "Office Supplies" product group, one rules include the association between "Office Supplies" and "Fashion" product groups, and other three rules contain association between "Office Supplies" and "Home Decoration" product groups. Finally, the proposed product recommender systems provides list of recommendations to the proper customers. We test the usability of the proposed system by using prototype and real-world transaction and profile data. For this end, we construct the prototype system by using the ASP, Java Script and Microsoft Access. In addition, we survey about user satisfaction for the recommended product list from the proposed system and the randomly selected product lists. The participants for the survey are 173 persons who use MSN Messenger, Daum Caf$\acute{e}$, and P2P services. We evaluate the user satisfaction using five-scale Likert measure. This study also performs "Paired Sample T-test" for the results of the survey. The results show that the proposed model outperforms the random selection model with 1% statistical significance level. It means that the users satisfied the recommended product list significantly. The results also show that the proposed system may be useful in real-world online shopping store.