• Title/Summary/Keyword: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

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Association between Age-Adjusted Endothelial Activation and Stress Index and Intensive Care Unit Mortality in Patients with Severe COVID-19

  • Jong Hwan Jeong;Manbong Heo;Sunghoon Park;Su Hwan Lee;Onyu Park;Taehwa Kim;Hye Ju Yeo;Jin Ho Jang;Woo Hyun Cho;Jung-Wan Yoo;Korean Intensive Care Study Group
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.87 no.4
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    • pp.524-531
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    • 2024
  • Background: Endothelial activation and stress index (EASIX) reflects endothelial dysfunction or damage. Because endothelial dysfunction is one of the key mechanisms, a few studies have shown the clinical usefulness of original and age-adjusted EASIX (age-EASIX) in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of age-EASIX in predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 in South Korea. Methods: Secondary analysis was performed using clinical data retrospectively collected from 22 nationwide hospitals in South Korea between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021. Patients were at least 19 years old and admitted to the ICU for severe COVID-19, demanding at least high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy. EASIX [lactate dehydrogenase (U/L)×creatinine (mg/dL)/platelet count (109 cells/L)] and age-EASIX (EASIX×age) were calculated and log2-transformed. Results: The mean age of 908 critically ill patients with COVID-19 was 67.4 years with 59.7% male sex. The mean log2 age-EASIX was 7.38±1.45. Non-survivors (n=222, 24.4%) in the ICU had a significantly higher log2 age-EASIX than of survivors (8.2±1.52 vs. 7.1±1.32, p<0.001). Log2 age-EASIX was significantly associated with ICU mortality (odds ratio, 1.541; 95% confidence interval, 1.322 to 1.796; p<0.001) and had a better area under the receiver operating characteristic curve than of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score in predicting ICU mortality (0.730 vs. 0.660, p=0.001). Conclusion: Age-EASIX is significantly associated with ICU mortality and has better discriminatory ability than the SOFA score in predicting ICU mortality.

Predicting 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma in Korea using machine learning algorithms: a retrospective study

  • Jonghee Han;Su Young Yoon;Junepill Seok;Jin Young Lee;Jin Suk Lee;Jin Bong Ye;Younghoon Sul;Se Heon Kim;Hong Rye Kim
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.201-208
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The number of elderly patients with trauma is increasing; therefore, precise models are necessary to estimate the mortality risk of elderly patients with trauma for informed clinical decision-making. This study aimed to develop machine learning based predictive models that predict 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma and to compare the predictive performance of various machine learning models. Methods: This study targeted patients aged ≥65 years with an Injury Severity Score of ≥15 who visited the regional trauma center at Chungbuk National University Hospital between 2016 and 2022. Four machine learning models-logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)-were developed to predict 30-day mortality. The models' performance was compared using metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, F1 score, as well as Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) values and learning curves. Results: The performance evaluation of the machine learning models for predicting mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma showed AUC values for logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and XGBoost of 0.938, 0.863, 0.919, and 0.934, respectively. Among the four models, XGBoost demonstrated superior accuracy, precision, recall, specificity, and F1 score of 0.91, 0.72, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.78, respectively. Analysis of important features of XGBoost using SHAP revealed associations such as a high Glasgow Coma Scale negatively impacting mortality probability, while higher counts of transfused red blood cells were positively correlated with mortality probability. The learning curves indicated increased generalization and robustness as training examples increased. Conclusions: We showed that machine learning models, especially XGBoost, can be used to predict 30-day mortality in severely injured elderly patients with trauma. Prognostic tools utilizing these models are helpful for physicians to evaluate the risk of mortality in elderly patients with severe trauma.

Differentiation of True Recurrence from Delayed Radiation Therapy-related Changes in Primary Brain Tumors Using Diffusion-weighted Imaging, Dynamic Susceptibility Contrast Perfusion Imaging, and Susceptibility-weighted Imaging (확산강조영상, 역동적조영관류영상, 자화율강조영상을 이용한 원발성 뇌종양환자에서의 종양재발과 지연성 방사선치료연관변화의 감별)

  • Kim, Dong Hyeon;Choi, Seung Hong;Ryoo, Inseon;Yoon, Tae Jin;Kim, Tae Min;Lee, Se-Hoon;Park, Chul-Kee;Kim, Ji-Hoon;Sohn, Chul-Ho;Park, Sung-Hye;Kim, Il Han
    • Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.120-132
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    • 2014
  • Purpose : To compare dynamic susceptibility contrast imaging, diffusion-weighted imaging, and susceptibility-weighted imaging (SWI) for the differentiation of tumor recurrence and delayed radiation therapy (RT)-related changes in patients treated with RT for primary brain tumors. Materials and Methods: We enrolled 24 patients treated with RT for various primary brain tumors, who showed newly appearing enhancing lesions more than one year after completion of RT on follow-up MRI. The enhancing-lesions were confirmed as recurrences (n=14) or RT-changes (n=10). We calculated the mean values of normalized cerebral blood volume (nCBV), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), and proportion of dark signal intensity on SWI (proSWI) for the enhancing-lesions. All the values between the two groups were compared using t-test. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to determine the best predictor of differential diagnosis. The cutoff value of the best predictor obtained from receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was applied to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for the diagnosis. Results: The mean nCBV value was significantly higher in the recurrence group than in the RT-change group (P=.004), and the mean proSWI was significantly lower in the recurrence group (P<.001). However, no significant difference was observed in the mean ADC values between the two groups. A multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that proSWI was the only independent variable for the differentiation; the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.6% (11 of 14), 100% (10 of 10), and 87.5% (21 of 24), respectively. Conclusion: The proSWI was the most promising parameter for the differentiation of newly developed enhancing-lesions more than one year after RT completion in brain tumor patients.

The Prognostic Role of B-type Natriuretic Peptide in Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (만성폐쇄성폐질환의 급성 악화시 예후 인자로서의 혈중 B-type Natriuretic Peptide의 역할)

  • Lee, Ji Hyun;Oh, So Yeon;Hwang, Iljun;Kim, Okjun;Kim, Hyun Kuk;Kim, Eun Kyung;Lee, Ji-Hyun
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.600-610
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    • 2004
  • Background : The plasma B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP) concentration increases with the degree of pulmonary hypertension in patients with chronic respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to examine the prognostic role of BNP in the acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD). Method : We selected 67 patients who were admitted our hospital because of an acute exacerbation of COPD. Their BNP levels were checked on admission at the Emergency Department. Their medical records were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were divided into two groups according to their in-hospital mortality. The patients' medical history, comobidity, exacerbation type, blood gas analysis, pulmonary function, APACHE II severity score and plasma BNP level were compared. Results : Multiple logistic regression analysis identified three independent predictors of mortality: $FEV_1$, APACHE II score and plasma BNP level. The decedents group showed a lower $FEV_1$($28{\pm}7$ vs. $37{\pm}15%$, p=0.005), a higher APACHE II score($22.4{\pm}6.1$ vs. $15.8{\pm}4.7$, p=0.000) and a higher BNP level ($201{\pm}116$ vs. $77{\pm}80pg/mL$, p=0.000) than the sSurvivors group. When the BNP cut-off level was set to 88pg/mL using the receiver operating characteristic curve, the sensitivity was 90% and the specificity was 75% in differentiating between the survivors and decedents. On Fisher's exact test, the odds ratio for mortality was 21.2 (95% CI 2.49 to 180.4) in the patients with a BNP level > 88pg/mL. Conclusion : The plasma BNP level might be a predictor of mortality in an acute exacerbation of COPD as well as the $FEV_1$ and APACHE II score.

Nitroglycerin-Challenged Tc-99m MIBI Quantitative Gated SPECT to Predict Functional Recovery After Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery (니트로글리세린 투여 Tc-99m-MIBI 정량 게이트 심근SPECT를 이용한 관상동맥우회로술 후 심근 기능 회복 예측)

  • Lee, Dong-Soo;Kim, Yu-Kyeong;Cheon, Gi-Jeong;Paeng, Jin-Chul;Lee, Myoung-Mook;Kim, Ki-Bong;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.278-287
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The performance of nitroglycerin-challenged Tc-99m-MIBI quantitative gated SPECT for the detection of viable myocardium was compared with rest/24-hour redistribution Tl-201 SPECT Materials and Methods: In 22 patients with coronary artery disease, rest Tl-20l/ dipyridamole stress Tc-99m-MIBI gated/24-hour redistribution Tl-201 SPECT were peformed, and gated SPECT was repeated on-site after sublingual administration of nitroglycerin (0.6 mg). Follow-up gated SPECT was done 3 months after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. For 20 segments per patient, perfusion at rest and 24-hour redistribution, and wall motion and thickening at baseline and nitroglycerin-challenged state were quantified. Quantitative viability markers were evaluated and compared;(1) rest thallium uptake, (2) thallium uptake on 24-hour redistribution SPECT, (3) systolic wall thickening at baseline, and (4) systolic wall thickening with nitroglycerin-challenge. Results: Among 100 revascularized dysfunctional segments, wall motion improved in 66 segments (66%) on follow-up gated myocardial SPECT after bypass surgery. On receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the sensitivity and specificity of rest and 24-hour delayed redistribution Tl-201 SPECT were 79%, 44% and 82%, 44%, respectively, at the optimal cutoff value of 50% of Tl-201 uptake. The sensitivity and specificity of systolic wall thickening at baseline and nitroglycerin-challenge were 49%, 50% and 64%, 65% at the optimal cutoff value of 15% of systolic wall thickening. Area under the ROC curve of nitroglycerin-challenged systolic wall thickening was significantly larger than that of baseline systolic wall thickening (p=0.004). Conclusion: Nitroglycerin-challenged quantitative gated Tc-99m-MIBI SPECT was a useful method for predicting functional recovery of dysfunctional myocardium.

Diagnostic Value of Cyfra 21-1 in Differential Diagnosis of Pleural Effusion (흉수의 감별 전단으로 Cyfra 21-1의 진단적 가치)

  • Lee, Hak-Jun;Lee, Kwan-Ho;Shin, Kyeong-Cheol;Shin, Chang-Jin;Park, Hye-Jung;Mun, Yeung-Chul;Lee, Kyung-Hee;Chung, Jin-Hong;Hyun, Myung-Soo;Lee, Hyun-Woo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.50-56
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    • 1999
  • Background : Pleural effusion is a common clinical problem and many clinical and laboratory evaluations, such as tumor marks, have been studied to discriminate malignant pleural fluid from benign pleural fluid. However their usefulness in the diagnosis of pleural effusion is still not established fully. We studied the diagnostic value of cyfra 21-1 in diagnosis of malignant pleural effusion. Methods: Pleural fluid was obtained from 45 patients with malignant diseases(32 lung cancer patients, 13 metastatic malignant diseases) and 47 patients with benign diseases. The level of cyfra 21-1 in the pleural fluid and serum were determined using a CYFRA 21-1 enzyme immunoassay kit(Cis-Bio International Co.). The t-test was used for comparison between two diseases groups and receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves were constructed by calculating the sensitivities and specificities of the cyfra 21-1 at several points to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the cyfra 21-1. Results: In patients with primary lung cancer, the level of cyfra 21-1 in the pleural fluid was significantly higher than those of patients with benign diseases and had positive correlations between the level of cyfra 21-1 in the pleural fluid and serum levels. In the ROC curve analysis of the pleural fluid, the curve for primary lung cancer group was located closer to the left upper comer and the cut off value, sensitivity and specificity of the cyfra 21-1 of the primary lung cancer group was determined as 22.25ng/ml, 81.8% and 78.7% respectively. Conclusions: Our data indicates that the measurement of cyfra 21-1 level in pleural effusion has useful diagnostic value to discriminate malignant pleural effusion in primary lung cancer from benign pleural effusion.

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The Study on the Reduction of Patient Surface Dose Through the use of Copper Filter in a Digital Chest Radiography (디지털 흉부 촬영에서 구리필터사용에 따른 환자 표면선량 감소효과에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Soo-In;Kim, Chong-Yeal;Kim, Sung-Chul
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.223-228
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    • 2008
  • The most critical point in the medical use of radiation is to minimize the patient's entrance dose while maintaining the diagnostic function. Low-energy photons (long wave X-ray) among diagnostic X-rays are unnecessary because they are mostly absorbed and contribute the increase of patient's entrance dose. The most effective method to eliminate the low-energy photons is to use the filtering plate. The experiments were performed by observing the image quality. The skin entrance dose was 0.3 mmCu (copper) filter. A total of 80 images were prepared as two sets of 40 cuts. In the first set (of 40 cuts), 20 cuts were prepared for the non-filter set and another 20 cuts for the Cu filter of signal + noise image set. In the second set of 40 cuts, 20 cuts were prepared for the non-filter set and another 20 cuts for the Cu filter of non-signal image (noisy image) with random location of diameter 4 mm and 3 mm thickness of acryl disc for ROC signal at the chest phantom. P(S/s) and P(S/n) were calculated and the ROC curve was described in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Accuracy were evaluated after reading by five radiologists. The number of optically observable lesions was counted through ANSI chest phantom and contrast-detail phantom by recommendation of AAPM when non-filter or Cu filter was used, and the skin entrance dose was also measured for both conditions. As the result of the study, when the Cu filter was applied, favorable outcomes were observed on, the ROC Curve was located on the upper left area, sensitivity, accuracy and the number of CD phantom lesions were reasonable. Furthermore, if skin entrance dose was reduced, the use of additional filtration may be required to be considered in many other cases.

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A Study on Clinical Variables Contributing to Differentiation of Delirium and Non-Delirium Patients in the ICU (중환자실 섬망 환자와 비섬망 환자 구분에 기여하는 임상 지표에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Chanyoung;Kim, Jae-Jin;Cho, Dongrae;Oh, Jooyoung;Park, Jin Young
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.101-110
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    • 2019
  • Objectives : It is not clear which clinical variables are most closely associated with delirium in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). By comparing clinical data of ICU delirium and non-delirium patients, we sought to identify variables that most effectively differentiate delirium from non-delirium. Methods : Medical records of 6,386 ICU patients were reviewed. Random Subset Feature Selection and Principal Component Analysis were utilized to select a set of clinical variables with the highest discriminatory capacity. Statistical analyses were employed to determine the separation capacity of two models-one using just the selected few clinical variables and the other using all clinical variables associated with delirium. Results : There was a significant difference between delirium and non-delirium individuals across 32 clinical variables. Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale (RASS), urinary catheterization, vascular catheterization, Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAM-A), Blood urea nitrogen, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination II most effectively differentiated delirium from non-delirium. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that, with the exception of vascular catheterization, these clinical variables were independent risk factors associated with delirium. Separation capacity of the logistic regression model using just 6 clinical variables was measured with Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.818. Same analyses were performed using all 32 clinical variables;the AUC was 0.881, denoting a very high separation capacity. Conclusions : The six aforementioned variables most effectively separate delirium from non-delirium. This highlights the importance of close monitoring of patients who received invasive medical procedures and were rated with very low RASS and HAM-A scores.

Performance effectiveness of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatricrisk of mortality III (PRISM III) in pediatric patients with intensive care in single institution: Retrospective study (단일 병원에서 소아 중환자의 예후인자 예측을 위한 PIM2 (pediatric index of mortality 2)와 PRIMS III (pediatric risk of mortality)의 유효성 평가 - 후향적 조사 -)

  • Hwang, Hui Seung;Lee, Na Young;Han, Seung Beom;Kwak, Ga Young;Lee, Soo Young;Chung, Seung Yun;Kang, Jin Han;Jeong, Dae Chul
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.11
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    • pp.1158-1164
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : To investigate the discriminative ability of pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM2) and pediatric risk of mortality III (PRISM III) in predicting mortality in children admitted into the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods : We retrospectively analyzed variables of PIM2 and PRISM III based on medical records with children cared for in a single hospital ICU from January 2003 to December 2007. Exclusions were children who died within 2 h of admission into ICU or hopeless discharge. We used Students t test and ANOVA for general characteristics and for correlation between survivors and non-survivors for variables of PIM2 and PRISM III. In addition, we performed multiple logistic regression analysis for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for discrimination, and calculated standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for estimation of prediction. Results : We collected 193 medical records but analyzed 190 events because three children died within 2 h of ICU admission. The variables of PIM2 correlated with survival, except for the presence of post-procedure and low risk. In PRISM III, there was a significant correlation for cardiovascular/neurologic signs, arterial blood gas analysis but not for biochemical and hematologic data. Discriminatory performance by ROC showed an area under the curve 0.858 (95% confidence interval; 0.779-0.938) for PIM2, 0.798 (95% CI; 0.686-0.891) for PRISM III, respectively. Further, SMR was calculated approximately as 1 for the 2 systems, and multiple logistic regression analysis showed ${\chi}^2(13)=14.986$, P=0.308 for PIM2, ${\chi}^2(13)=12.899$, P=0.456 for PRISM III in Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. However, PIM2 was significant for PRISM III in the likelihood ratio test (${\chi}^2(4)=55.3$, P<0.01). Conclusion : We identified two acceptable scoring systems (PRISM III, PIM2) for the prediction of mortality in children admitted into the ICU. PIM2 was more accurate and had a better fit than PRISM III on the model tested.

Assessment of Quantitative Analysis Methods for Lung F-18-Fluorodeoxyglucose PET (폐 종양 FDG PET 영상의 다양한 추적자 역학 분석 방법 개발과 유용성 고찰)

  • Kim, Joon-Young;Choi, Yong;Choi, Joon-Young;Lee, Kyung-Han;Kim, Sang-Eun;Choe, Yearn-Seong;Kim, Yong-Jin;Kim, Byung-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.332-343
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    • 1998
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of various quantitation methods using F-18-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) in patients with malignant or benign lung lesion. Materials and Methods: 22 patients (13 malignant including 5 bronchoalverolar cell cancer; 9 benign lesions including 1 hamartoma and 8 active inflammation) were studied after overnight fasting. We performed dynamic PET imaging for 56 min after injection of 370 MBq (10 mCi) of FDG. Standardized uptake values normalized to patient's body weight and plasma glucose concentration (SUVglu) were calculated. The uptake rate constant of FDG and glucose metabolic rate were quantified using Patlak graphical analysis (Kpat and MRpat), three compartment-five parameter model (K5p, MR5p), and six parameter model taking into account heterogeneity of tumor tissue (K6p, MR6p). Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were calculated for each method. Results: There was no significant difference of rate constant or glucose metabolic rate measured by various quantitation methods between malignant and benign lesions. The area under ROC curve were 0.73 for SUVglu, 0.66 for Kpat, 0.77 for MRpat, 0.71 for K5p, 0.73 for MR5p, 0.70 for K6p, and 0.78 for MR6p. No significant difference of area under the ROC curve between these methods was observed except the area between Kpat vs. MRpat (p<0.05). Conclusion: Quantitative methods did not improve diagnostic accuracy in comparison with nonkinetic methods. However, the clinical utility of these methods needs to be evaluated further in patients with low pretest likelihood of active inflammation or bronchoalveolar cell carcinoma.

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