• Title/Summary/Keyword: REGRESSION ANALYSIS

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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

Current status, perception and practicability of restaurant staffs related to reducing sodium use in Seongnam, Korea (성남 지역 외식업소의 나트륨 저감화 현황과 종사자의 저감화 실행에 대한 인식 및 실천용이도)

  • Ahn, So-Hyun;Kwon, Jong Sook;Kim, Kyungmin;Lee, Yoonna;Kim, Hye-Kyeong
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.475-487
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: With the increase of going out to eat, reducing the sodium in restaurant foods has a crucial impact on reducing sodium intake. This study aimed to assess the current status and perceptions of restaurant staffs related to reducing sodium use in restaurants. Methods: Restaurant managers and chefs (n = 312) in Seongnam area completed a questionnaire on the current status related to sodium use, the barriers to practice for reducing sodium use, support needs, and the practicability of methods for reducing sodium use in restaurants. Results: The percentage of restaurants in the preaction stage (including the precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation stages) for reducing sodium use was 79.7%. Logistic regression analysis showed that measuring salinity while cooking was associated with measuring seasoning (OR, 4.761; 95% CI, 2.325 ~ 9.751), action/maintenance stages of behavior change (OR, 2.829; 95% CI, 1.449 ~ 5.525) and providing salinity information of restaurant foods (OR, 6.314; 95% CI, 2.964 ~ 13.45). Maintaining taste and hindering the cooking process were the main barriers to reduce sodium use. The total practicability of actions for reducing sodium was higher in staffs who worked in restaurants that measured seasoning and salinity while cooking (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively). The hardest item to practice was 'purchase foods after comparing sodium content in the nutrition labeling'. 'Avoid serving salt-fermented foods as side dishes', 'serve small portions of kimchi and less salty kimchi', and 'put up promotional materials for reducing sodium intake' were selected as easy items to perform. The majority (82%) was willing to reduce sodium in restaurant foods under the support of local government and they desired the promotion of participating restaurants and education on cooking skills to reduce sodium. Conclusion: Measuring seasoning and salinity while cooking is a meaningful practice that is associated with stages of behavior change and the practicability of actions for reducing sodium. It is necessary to provide support and education with a gradual approach to staffs for reducing sodium in restaurant foods.

The Influence of Moral Distress and Moral Sensitivity on Moral Courage in Nursing Students (간호대학생의 도덕적 용기에 대한 도덕적 고뇌와 도덕적 민감성의 관계)

  • YUN, Hye-Young;KIM, Sun-Ki;JANG, Hyo-Eun;HWANG, Sin-Woo;KIM, Sang-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Medical Ethics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.360-376
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    • 2018
  • Nursing students experience ethical conflicts that lead to moral distress and moral sensitivity in clinical practice. Most nursing students have some difficulty in speaking up when faced with morally challenging situations. Hence, increasing moral courage of these students is important to improve the quality of practice, and carry out nursing responsibilities. However, research on the moral distress, moral sensitivity, and moral courage of nursing students has not been reported in South Korea. The purposes of this study were to (a) identify the levels of moral distress, moral sensitivity, and moral courage of nursing students and (b) examine the influence of moral distress and moral sensitivity on moral courage. Data were collected through a survey using self-reported questionnaires sent to senior nursing students at two nursing colleges in Seoul and Gyeonggido. A total of 138 senior nursing students participated in the survey. The data were analyzed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 23 program by Pearson's correlation coefficients and multiple regression analysis. The mean scores of the moral distress thermometer, moral distress, moral sensitivity, and moral courage were $3.53{\pm}2.18$, $57.33{\pm}43.35$, $134.98{\pm}13.98$, and $56.33{\pm}12.75$, respectively. The significant factors influencing moral courage were the moral distress thermometer and patient-centered nursing, which was a subcomponent of moral sensitivity. The explanatory power of the model was 5%. This study confirms that nursing students, like nurses, experience moral distress. It is therefore important to create organizational environments that support the moral courage of nursing students.

Development of High-frequency Data-based Inflow Water Temperature Prediction Model and Prediction of Changesin Stratification Strength of Daecheong Reservoir Due to Climate Change (고빈도 자료기반 유입 수온 예측모델 개발 및 기후변화에 따른 대청호 성층강도 변화 예측)

  • Han, Jongsu;Kim, Sungjin;Kim, Dongmin;Lee, Sawoo;Hwang, Sangchul;Kim, Jiwon;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.271-296
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    • 2021
  • Since the thermal stratification in a reservoir inhibits the vertical mixing of the upper and lower layers and causes the formation of a hypoxia layer and the enhancement of nutrients release from the sediment, changes in the stratification structure of the reservoir according to future climate change are very important in terms of water quality and aquatic ecology management. This study was aimed to develop a data-driven inflow water temperature prediction model for Daecheong Reservoir (DR), and to predict future inflow water temperature and the stratification structure of DR considering future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The random forest (RF)regression model (NSE 0.97, RMSE 1.86℃, MAPE 9.45%) developed to predict the inflow temperature of DR adequately reproduced the statistics and variability of the observed water temperature. Future meteorological data for each RCP scenario predicted by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) was input into RF model to predict the inflow water temperature, and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (AEM3D) was used to predict the change in the future (2018~2037, 2038~2057, 2058~2077, 2078~2097) stratification structure of DR due to climate change. As a result, the rates of increase in air temperature and inflow water temperature was 0.14~0.48℃/10year and 0.21~0.41℃/10year,respectively. As a result of seasonal analysis, in all scenarios except spring and winter in the RCP 2.6, the increase in inflow water temperature was statistically significant, and the increase rate was higher as the carbon reduction effort was weaker. The increase rate of the surface water temperature of the reservoir was in the range of 0.04~0.38℃/10year, and the stratification period was gradually increased in all scenarios. In particular, when the RCP 8.5 scenario is applied, the number of stratification days is expected to increase by about 24 days. These results were consistent with the results of previous studies that climate change strengthens the stratification intensity of lakes and reservoirs and prolonged the stratification period, and suggested that prolonged water temperature stratification could cause changes in the aquatic ecosystem, such as spatial expansion of the low-oxygen layer, an increase in sediment nutrient release, and changed in the dominant species of algae in the water body.

Needs and Related Factors for Return-to-Work Support in Cancer Survivors (암 경험자의 직장복귀지원에 대한 요구도 및 관련 요인)

  • Lee, Sungwon;Lee, Kwang-Min;Oh, Gyu-Han;Yeom, Chan-Woo;Jung, Sanghyup;Hahm, Bong-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.126-134
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    • 2020
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study was to investigate the needs for return-to-work support of cancer survivors and related factors in patients with cancer and their caregivers. Methods : 182 patients and 114 caregivers were recruited. Distress Thermometer and Problem List and scale ranging 0~10 measuring the degree of needs for return-to-work support were utilized. The needs for return-to-work support between the patient group and caregiver group (patient's needs evaluated by the caregiver) were compared, and related factors were investigated using logistic regression analysis. Results : 34.6% and 28.1% of patients and caregivers reported return-to-work support of cancer survivors is "very necessary". The degree of needs was 6.60±3.365 points in the patient group and 6.17±3.454 points in the caregiver group, with no significant difference (p=0.282). The needs for return-to-work support evaluated by patients was high when they underwent surgery (OR=2.592, p=0.007), has fertility problems (OR=6.137, p=0.025), has appearance problems (OR=2.081, p=0.041), or has fatigue (OR=2.330, p=0.020). The needs for return-to-work support of patients evaluated by caregivers was high when patients treated with breast cancer (vs respiratory cancer, OR=13.038, p=0.022 ; vs leukemia/lymphoma, OR=4.517, p=0.025 ; vs other cancer, OR=13.102, p=0.019), has work/school problems (OR=4.578, p=0.005), or has depression (OR=3.213, p=0.022). Conclusions : The degree of needs for return-to-work support of cancer survivors was high, and factors related to the needs were different between the two groups. This suggests that return-to-work support of cancer survivors is required, and clinical characteristics, the distress of patients, and differences between patients and their caregivers should be considered in establishing a support plan.

Analysis of the Longitudinal Relationship between Recovery and Adaptation Factors According to Types of School Violence Exposure in Youth: Focusing on Resilience and Social Support (청소년의 학교폭력노출 유형에 따른 회복과 적응을 위한 요인 간의 종단적 관계 분석: 사회적지지와 회복탄력성을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dongil;lee, hye eun;Keum, ChangMin;Park, Altteuri;Oh, Jiwon
    • (The) Korean Journal of Educational Psychology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.99-130
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the longitudinal relationship between resilience and social support of school violence exposure types including school bullying, victimization, and dual experience. The study used data obtained from the third year (2012) of the Seoul Education Longitudinal Study of 1,137 elementary school students in grade 6 who reported experiencing school violence. The results of the autoregressive cross-lagged model are as follows. First, as a result of measuring the self-regression coefficients of resilience and social support of the youth exposed to school violence at 3 time points (2012, 2014, and 2016), it was found for all types of violence that resilience and social support at the previous time point showed a signigicant positive effect on the same variable at the next time point. Second, in the case of the cross-lagged effects of resilience and social support, the effect of previous social support on resilience at the next time point was statistically significant for the victimization group, but not for the bullying or dual experience groups. Third, considering the opposite path from resilience to social support, resilience at the previous time point had a significant influence on the social support at the next time point for both the bullying and victimization groups. This result is new and can be complementary to the cross-sectional studies so far using a longitudinal view. The results of this study suggest that the bullying and victimized students who are relatively more resilient are less likely to perceive social support than those who are not resilient. Finally, we discuss the longitudinal relationship between resilience and social support, the limitations of this study, and implications for future research.

Evaluation on the Effects of Deicing Salts on Crop using Seedling Emergence Assay of Oilseed Rape (Brassica napus) (유채의 출아 검정을 통한 제설제의 작물 영향 평가)

  • Lim, Soo-Hyun;Yu, Hyejin;Lee, Chan-Young;Gong, Yu-Seok;Lee, Byung-Duk;Kim, Do-Soon
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.72-79
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    • 2021
  • The increasing use of deicing salts has caused various environmental problems, including crop damage along the motorway where deicing salts are sprayed during winter. Deicing salts used on roads have been reported to negatively affect crops, but little information is known about their impact on crops. A seedling emergence assay was conducted to evaluate the effects of deicing salts on crops using oilseed rape (Brassica napus) as a model plant. We tested five chloride deicing salts consisting of NaCl, CaCl2, or MgCl2 and 1 non-chloride deicing salt (SM-3) at a range of concentrations (25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 mM), and untreated control. Regardless of deicing salts, they significantly delayed and reduced seedling emergence of oilseed rape with increasing salt concentration. Non-linear regression analysis of seedling emergence with a range of salt concentrations by fitting to the log-logistic model revealed that the chloride deicing salts reduced seedling emergence more than the non-chloride deicing salt SM-3. The GR50 value, the concentration causing 50% seedling emergence, of SM-3 was 47.1 mM, while those of the chloride deicing salts ranged from 30.7 mM (PC-10) to 37.5 mM (ES-1), showing approximately 10 mM difference between non-chloride and chloride deicing salts. Our findings suggest that seedling emergence assay is a useful tool to estimate the potential damage caused by deicing salts on crops.

Multi-Institute, Single Group, Prospective Observational Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Mucomyst® in Relieving Symptoms of Globus Pharyngeus Refractory to Proton Pump Inhibitor (양성자펌프억제제에 반응하지 않는 인두이물감 환자에서 "뮤코미스트Mucomyst®" 객담제거 및 상기도 염증치료를 통한 증상개선효과 평가 다기관, 단일군, 전향적 관찰 연구)

  • Park, Hannah;Park, Il-Seok;Lee, Sang Hyuk;Lee, Seung-Won;Lee, Sang Joon;Lee, Byung-Joo;Cheon, Yong-Il;Park, Jun-Ook;Oh, Kyoung Ho;Shin, Yoo Seob
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Laryngology, Phoniatrics and Logopedics
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.20-25
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    • 2022
  • Background and Objectives Globus pharyngeus is one of the most common symptoms of patients visiting otorhinolaryngology out-patient clinic, and usually long-lasting, difficult to treat, and frequently recurrent. Mucomyst®, N-acetyl cysteine is an inhalation agent mainly used for mucolysis and reducing inflammation in airway via antioxidative effect. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of inhaled Mucomyst® treatment in patients with globus pharyngeus refractory to proton pump inhibitor (PPI). Materials and Method We prospectively evaluated the efficacy of Mucomyst® in relieving symptoms of globus pharyngeus refractory to PPI in nine medical centers. Three hundred and three patients enrolled and finally 229 patients finished the inhaled Mucomyst® therapy for 8 weeks. We analyzed the change of Reflux Symptom Index (RSI), Reflux Finding Score (RFS), Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for globus, and Globus Pharyngeus Symptom Scale (GPS) after use of Mucomyst® for 4 and 8 weeks. Results The GPS, RSI, RFS, and VAS score significantly decreased serially in patients who finished 8 week-inhalation treatment. The GPS improvement gap was significantly correlated with initial GPS (p<0.001) in multiple regression analysis. Conclusion Inhaled Mucomyst® therapy was effective for the reduction of both subjective and objective findings in refractory globus patients. This study might suggest new treatment option for patients with globus. However, further thorough studies would be needed to assess the real effect of inhaled Mucomyst® treatment as a standard treatment for globus.

The Association Between Socioeconomic Changes and Adolescent Mental Health After COVID-19 Pandemic (코로나19이후 사회 경제적 변화와 청소년 정신건강의 연관성)

  • Kim, Hi-Ju;Kim, Min-Hyuk;Min, Seongho;Lee, Jinhee
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.16-21
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    • 2022
  • Objectives : The purpose of this study is to investigate depression and suicide ideation according to socioeconomic changes after COVID-19 among Korean adolescent. Methods : Data on the study population were obtained from the 16th Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBS). The KYRBS is a nationally representative sample of Korean adolescents (aged 12-18 years) that originally included over 103 questions in 15 domains of health-risk behaviors. In the 16th KYRBS, a total 54,948 students from 793 schools responded to the survey. Chi-square test and logistic regression analysis were conducted regarding depression and suicide ideation. Results : This study suggests that changes in the family household before and after COVID-19 pandemic are also affecting the mental health of the adolescents. The study shows that worse change of family household is significant associations with suicidal ideation and depression. Adolescents reporting worse (AOR 1.38; 95% CI 1.38-1.57) and much worse (AOR 2.07; 95% CI 1.87-2.29) were significantly more likely to report depression. Adolescents reporting worse (AOR 1.34; 95% CI 1.34-1.60) and much worse (AOR 2.01; 95% CI 1.76-2.29) were significantly more likely to report suicide ideation. Conclusions : In this study, it was confirmed that young people from socially disadvantaged backgrounds are at high risk of suicide ideation and more depression. The results of this study suggest that we should consider improving the screening and prevention of mental health problems for adolescents with poor socioeconomic changes of COVID-19.

Perceived Social Support Among the Elderly People Living Alone and Their Preference for Institutional Care: Analysis of the Mediator Effect in the Perception of the Probability of Lonely Death (독거노인의 지각된 사회적 지지와 시설 돌봄 선호: 고독사 가능성 인식의 매개 효과 분석)

  • Cho, Hye Jin;Lee, Jun Young
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.707-727
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to empirically analyze the role that perception of the probability of lonely death among the elderly people living alone plays in the relationship between perceived social support and preference for institutional care based on Andersen's expanded Behavioral Model (2002). The subjects (n=676) of this study were the elderly people living alone, extracted from the "2018 Seoul Aging Survey." With "perceived social support" as an independent variable, "preference for institutional care" as a dependent variable, and "perception of the probability of lonely death" as a mediator variable, we conducted a Binary Logistic Regression to follow the three steps of analyzing mediation effect, as suggested by Baron and Kenny (1986). The results showed that perceived social support has a negative effect on the preference for institutional care and perception of the probability of lonely death among the elderly people living alone; at the same time, perception of the probability of lonely death was found to have a positive effect on their preference for institutional care. Lastly, perception of the probability of lonely death was found to partially mediate the effect of perceived social support among the elderly people living alone in terms of their preference for institutional care. Based on these findings, the practical implications of this study can be summarized as follows. First, various programs and support should be provided to the elderly people living alone in order to enhance the level of perceived social support, a factor that has been confirmed to increase preference for institutional care among the elderly people living alone. Second, as the perception of the probability of lonely death was confirmed to be a psychosocial factor of the preference for institutional care, we need to promote education and support for older people living alone to prepare them for lonely death. These efforts are expected to form a foundations for implementing a community-based integrated care system, "Aging in Place," which is the policy direction required for older people care.