• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.13-24
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• 2013

Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agricultural reservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation Earth System Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated using frequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected considering geographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought return period (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2~5 DRP) DRC was decreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteria considering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.10
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• pp.817-830
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• 2015

This study performed prediction of extreme rainfall uncertainty and its frequency analysis based on climate change scenarios by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the selected nine-General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the near future (2011-2040) over the Korean Peninsula (KP). We analysed uncertainty of scenarios by multiple model ensemble (MME) technique using non-parametric quantile mapping method and bias correction method in the basin scale of the KP. During the near future, the extreme rainfall shows a significant gradually increasing tendency with the annual variability and uncertainty of extreme ainfall in the RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition to the probability rainfall frequency (such as 50 and 100-year return periods) has increased by 4.2% to 10.9% during the near future in 2040. Therefore, in the longer-term water resources master plan, based on the various climate change scenarios (such as CMIP5 GCMs) and its uncertainty can be considered for utilizing of the support tool for decision-makers in water-related disasters management.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.379-392
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• 2014

This study was performed to predict the future climate envelope of Pinus pumila, a subalpine plant and a Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species (CBIS) of Korea. P. pumila is distributed at Mt. seorak in South Korea. Suitable habitat were predicted under two alternative RCPscenarios (IPCC AR5). The SDM used for future prediction was a Maxent model, and the total number of environmental variables for Maxent was 8. It was found that the distribution range of P. pumila in the South Korean was $38^{\circ}7^{\prime}8^{{\prime}{\prime}}N{\sim}38^{\circ}7^{\prime}14^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$ and $128^{\circ}28^{\prime}2^{{\prime}{\prime}}E{\sim}128^{\circ}27^{\prime}38^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$ and 1,586m~1,688m in altitude. The variables that contribute the most to define the climate envelope are altitude. Climate envelope simulation accuracy was evaluated using the ROC's AUC. The P. pumila model's 5-cv AUC was found to be 0.99966. which showed that model accuracy was very high. Under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate envelope for P. pumila is predicted to decrease in South Korea. According to the results of the maxent model has been applied in the current climate, suitable habitat is $790.78km^2$. The suitable habitats, are distributed in the region of over 1,400m. Further, in comparison with the suitable habitat of applying RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 suitable habitat current, reduction of area RCP8.5 was greater than RCP4.5. Thus, climate change will affect the distribution of P. pumila. Therefore, governmental measures to conserve this species will be necessary. Additionally, for CBIS vulnerability analysis and studies using sampling techniques to monitor areas based on the outcomes of this study, future study designs should incorporate the use of climatic predictions derived from multiple GCMs, especially GCMs that were not the one used in this study. Furthermore, if environmental variables directly relevant to CBIS distribution other than climate variables, such as the Bioclim parameters, are ever identified, more accurate prediction than in this study will be possible.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.106 no.2
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• pp.249-257
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• 2017

This study was conducted to analyze the relationship between tree-ring growth of Pinus densiflora and climate factors based on national forest inventory(NFI) data. Annual tree-ring growth data of P. densiflora collected by the $5^{th}$ NFI were first organized to analyze yearly growth patterns of the species. Yearly growing degree days and standard precipitation index based on daily mean temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2010 were calculated. Using the information, yearly temperature effect index(TEI) and precipitation effect index(PEI) were estimated to analyze the effect of climate conditions on the tree-ring growth of the species. A tree-ring growth estimation equation appropriate for P. densiflora was then developed by using the TEI and PEI as independent variables. The tree-ring growth estimation equation was finally applied to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for predicting the changes in tree-ring growth of P. densiflora from 2011 to 2100. The results indicate that tree-ring growth of P. densiflora is predicted to be decreased over time when the tree-ring growth estimation equation is applied to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It is predicted that the decrease of tree-ring growth over time is relatively small when RCP 4.5 is applied. On the other hand, the steep decrease of tree-ring growth was found in the application of RCP 8.5, especially after the year of 2050. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics of P. densiflora and for predicting changes in tree-ring growth patterns caused by climates change.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.31-44
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to analyze the climate change exposure of fisheries and fish species in the southern sea of Korea under the RCP climate change scenarios. The extent of exposure was calculated through weighted sum of the sea temperature forecasted by National Institute of Fisheries Science, and the weight were obtained from the time-space distribution of each fisheries or species, based on the micro-data for the fishing information reported by each fisherman. Results show that all the exposed sea temperature of RCP8.5 is higher than that of RCP4.5 in year 2100 as well as in near 2030, therefore it is thought to be very important to reduce the GHG emission even in the short term. The extent of exposure was analyzed to be comparatively high especially in the fisheries such as anchovy drag nets and species like cod, anchovy and squid. Meanwhile the method of this study is considered to be excellent to obtain the accurate extent of exposure under RCP scenarios, and therefore it is applicable on assessing the vulnerability of climate change in fisheries.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.459-459
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 순물소모량 개념의 농업용수 수요량 추정방법을 적용하여 기후변화에 따른 제주도의 미래 수요량 변화를 추정 분석하였다. 지하수를 주 수원으로 하고 관정에 의한 밭작물 위주의 작물재배와, 일정 규모 이상의 강우시에만 유출이 발생하며, 유출량의 대부분이 지하수로 침투되는 물순환 특성 등을 고려할 수 있는 제주도 지역에 적합한 순물소모량 산정방법을 적용하였다. 순물소모량 산정에 필요한 실제증발산량 및 잠재증발산량 등은 유역모형인 SWAT을 이용하여 산정하였다. SWAT 모형의 구동에 필요한 미래 기후자료는 10개의 대표적인 대순환모델(General Circulation Model, GCM) 결과로부터 상세화(Downscaling) 기법을 통해 적용하였으며, RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 중심으로 미래 기후변화에 따른 영향을 분석하였다. 미래(2010-2099)의 수문성분별 변화를 살펴본 결과, 연도별 증감과 GCM 모델별 차이는 있으나, 평균적으로 강수량, 잠재증발산량, 실제증발산량, 함양량 등이 점차 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, RCP 4.5보다는 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 증가현상이 좀 더 크게 나타났다. 순물소모량 또한 2010년에 비해 2099년을 기준으로 약 100~200mm 정도 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 증가폭이 크게 나타났다. 그러나 이는 자연적인 기후변화에 따른 단위면적당 순물소모량으로서, 인위적인 요인인 농업형태의 변화(관개면적의 증감, 작물품종의 변화, 인위적 용수절감 등)에 따라 실제 지역별 농업용수 수요량은 다른 경향을 나타낼 수도 있다. 특히 농업용수는 계절별, 지역별 편차가 크게 나타나므로, 자연적 조건에 의한 가용수자원량과 지역별 공급시설에 의한 용수공급량 및 수요예측량의 상호분석을 통해 안정적 물수급을 위한 대응책 마련이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.235-243
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• 2018

Loss of favorable habitats for species due to temperature increase is one of the main concerns of climate change on the ecosystem, and endangered species might be much more sensitive to such unfavorable changes. This study aimed to analyze the impact of future climate change on endangered wild animals in South Korea by investigating thermal sensitivity and vulnerability to temperature increase. We determined thermal sensitivity by testing normality in species distribution according to temperature. Then, we defined the vulnerability when the future temperature range of South Korea completely deviate from the current temperature range of species distribution. We identified 13 species with higher thermal sensitivity. Based on IPCC future scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, the number of species vulnerable to future warming doubled from 3 under RCP4.5 to 7 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The species anticipated to be at risk under RCP 8.5 are flying squirrel (Pteromys volans aluco), ural owl (Pteromys volans aluco), black woodpecker (Dryocopus martius), tawny owl (Strix aluco), watercock (Gallicrex cinerea), schrenck?s bittern (Ixobrychus eurhythmus), and fairy pitta (Pitta nympha). The other 10 species showing very narrow temperature ranges even without normal distributions and out of the future temperature range may also need to be treated as vulnerable species, considering the inevitable observation scarcity of such endangered species.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.187-187
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• 2018

최근 우리나라에서는 기후변화에 따른 이상기후로 인하여 홍수와 가뭄 등 자연 재해의 빈도가 증가하는 등 사회, 경제, 환경 등 다양한 분야에 영향을 받고 있다. 또한 우리나라는 기후변화와 더불어 강우의 계절적 특징상 강우량의 편중현상이 발생하므로 물 관리의 어려움이 크다. 이러한 상황에서 수자원의 미래 변화에 관한 연구는 필수적이며, 본 연구에서는 안동댐 유역을 대상 유역으로 하여 댐유입량과 유사량의 RCP 시나리오에 따른 변화 분석을 실시하였다. 댐유입량은 수자원의 이용에 있어서 직접적인 연관이 있는 중요한 요소이며, 유사량 또한 수자원의 효용가치를 증가시키기 위해 제어해야할 중요한 요소이다. 경상북도 안동시에 위치한 다목적댐인 안동댐은 유역면적이 $1,584km^2$이고, 총 저수용량은 $1,248\;10^6m^3$으로 용수공급 및 발전, 관광지 등으로 이용되고 있다. 안동댐 유역의 RCP 시나리오에 따른 변화 분석을 실시하기 위해, 분포형 수문모형인 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형을 이용하였다. RCP 시나리오를 적용하기 전, ASOS 관측자료를 이용하여 2010-2017 기간을 모의하고 2010년을 모형의 안정화 기간으로 두고, 2011-2017년에 대해 검보정을 실시한 후, RCP 시나리오에 따른 모의를 실시하였다. RCP 시나리오는 기후변화센터에서 제공하는 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 이용하였으며, 2010-2099 기간에 관하여 SWAT 모형을 모의하고, 2010년을 모형의 안정화 기간, 2011-2040 기간을 2025s, 2041-2070 기간을 2055s, 2071-2099 기간을 2085s로 두어 결과를 ASOS 관측자료를 이용한 결과와 비교 분석하였다.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.59 no.3
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• pp.41-50
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• 2017

The purpose of this study were to evaluate the effect of best management practices (BMPs) of Haean highland agricultural catchment ($62.8km^2$) under future climate change using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Before future evaluation, the SWAT was setup using 3 years (2009~2011) of observed daily streamflow, suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) data at three locations of the catchment. The SWAT was calibrated with average 0.74 Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency for streamflow, and 0.78, 0.63, and 0.79 determination coefficient ($R^2$) for SS, T-N, and T-P respectively. Under the HadGEM-RA RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the future precipitation and maximum temperature showed maximum increases of 8.3 % and $4.2^{\circ}C$ respectively based on the baseline (1981~2005). The future 2040s and 2080s hydrological components of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and streamflow showed changes of +3.2~+17.2 %, -0.1~-0.7 %, and -9.1~+8.1 % respectively. The future stream water quality of suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) showed changes of -5.8~+29.0 %, -4.5~+2.3 %, and +3.7~+17.4 % respectively. The future SS showed wide range according to streamflow from minus to plus range. We can infer that this was from the increase of long-term rainfall variability in 2040s less rainfalls and 2080s much rainfalls. However, the results showed that the T-P was the future target to manage stream water quality even in 2040s period.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.419-435
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to understand meteorological and climatological factors that have influence on the garlic product in Seosan and Taean, and to analyze the economic value according to the use of climatical information data for garlic farmers. The climatological characteristics and trends in this area are analyzed using the meteorological data at the Seosan local meteorological agency from 1984 to 2013, the national statistical data for the product of garlic from 1989 to 2013, and the scenario data for climate change (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for the period from 2001 to 2100. The results are as follows. First, the condition of lower temperature for garlic growth in winter season is satisfied with the mean air temperature. The wind speed are lower and stronger in Seosan and Taean than other garlic area. The suitable condition for the growth of northern type of garlic shows the decreasing trend in the accumulated precipitation in May. However, the area of growing the northern type garlic in the future is likely diminished because mean air temperature, accumulated precipitation, and mean wind speed are strong in the harvest time of garlic. Second, the seedtime of the northern and southern type of garlic using climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5, 8.5) in Seosan and Taean is getting late as time passes. and the harvest time gets faster, which indicates s that the period of garlic cultivation becomes shorter from 50 days to around 90 in the next 100 years. Third, the beginning days of white rot and delia platura of garlic are estimated by applying to the meteorological algorithm using mean air temperature and soil humidity. Especially, the beginning day of white rot garlic is shown to be faster according to the scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Fourth, the product of garlic (kg/10a) shows a high correlation with the minimum air temperature of a wintering time, the mean wind speed of a wintering time, the accumulated precipitation of a corpulent time, and the mean relative humidity of corpulent time of garlic. On the other hand, the analysis of garlic product when using the meteorological information data in cultivating garlic in Seosan and Taean reveals that the economic value increases up to 9% in total.