An Analysis on the Climate Change Exposure of Fisheries and Fish Species in the Southern Sea under the RCP Scenarios: Focused on Sea Temperature Variation

RCP 시나리오에 따른 남해안 어업 및 어종의 기후변화 노출 분석 : 수온 변동을 대상으로

  • Kim, Bong-Tae (Fisheries Policy Research Division, Korea Maritime Institute) ;
  • Lee, Joon-Soo (Climate Change Research Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science) ;
  • Suh, Young-Sang (Climate Change Research Division, National Institute of Fisheries Science)
  • 김봉태 (한국해양수산개발원 수산연구본부) ;
  • 이준수 (국립수산과학원 기후변화연구과) ;
  • 서영상 (국립수산과학원 기후변화연구과)
  • Received : 2016.11.08
  • Accepted : 2016.11.25
  • Published : 2016.12.31


The purpose of this study is to analyze the climate change exposure of fisheries and fish species in the southern sea of Korea under the RCP climate change scenarios. The extent of exposure was calculated through weighted sum of the sea temperature forecasted by National Institute of Fisheries Science, and the weight were obtained from the time-space distribution of each fisheries or species, based on the micro-data for the fishing information reported by each fisherman. Results show that all the exposed sea temperature of RCP8.5 is higher than that of RCP4.5 in year 2100 as well as in near 2030, therefore it is thought to be very important to reduce the GHG emission even in the short term. The extent of exposure was analyzed to be comparatively high especially in the fisheries such as anchovy drag nets and species like cod, anchovy and squid. Meanwhile the method of this study is considered to be excellent to obtain the accurate extent of exposure under RCP scenarios, and therefore it is applicable on assessing the vulnerability of climate change in fisheries.


Supported by : 국립수산과학원


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