• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.11
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• pp.877-886
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• 2022

This study was carried out to analyze how the flow and water quality of the Sangsa Lake (juam control basin) change according to future climate change and what countermeasures are needed. Aquatic Ecosystem Model) was used in conjunction. As climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of AR5 (5th Assessment Report) according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used. For the climate change scenario, detailed data on the Sangsa Lake basin were used by the Korea Meteorological Administration, and after being evaluated as a correction and verification process for the 10-year period from 2012 to 2021, the present, 2025-2036, 2045- The summer period from June to August and the winter period from December to February were analyzed separately for each year by dividing it into 2056 and 2075-2086. RCP 8.5 was higher than RCP 4.5 as an arithmetic mean for the flow rate of the watershed of the superior lake for the entire simulation period, and TN and TP also showed a tendency to be higher at RCP 4.5. However, in RCP 8.5, the outflow of pollutants decreased during the dry season and the outflow of pollutants increased during the summer, indicating that the annual pollutant outflow was concentrated during the flood season, and it is analyzed that countermeasures are needed.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.25-36
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• 2013

This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.86-86
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• 2017

기후변화에 따른 다양한 형태의 자연재해로 인하여 기존 설계기준을 능가하는 홍수가 발생하고, 막대한 국가적 손실이 발생하고 있다. 이러한 기후변화의 영향에 대비하기 위하여 IPCC(Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change) 5차 평가보고서 ($5^{th}$ Assessment Report, AR5)를 근간으로 국내 외에서 많은 연구들이 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 낙동강 유역을 대상으로 기후변화 시나리오 기반의 미래 강우자료를 이용하여 홍수 유출량을 산정하고, 이를 기존의 설계홍수량과 비교 분석하였다. 기상청은 IPCC 5차 평가보고서에 따른 국가표준 기후변화 시나리오를 산출하여 제공하고 있으며, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 시나리오 중 온실가스 저감 정책이 실현되지 않는 RCP 8.5 시나리오를 이용하여 연구를 수행하였다. 낙동강 유역에서 설계홍수량 산정에 사용한 연최대 강우자료와 기후변화 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 생산되는 강우자료를 이용하여 확률강우량을 추정하였고, 강우-유출 모형을 이용하여 홍수량을 산정하여 비교 분석하였다. 현재의 설계기준과 시나리오 기반의 미래 홍수 유출량의 비교 분석 결과는 기후변화 위험에 능동적으로 대응하고 보다 안정적인 수공구조물 설계를 위하여 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.65-73
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• 2016

We estimated the averaged maximum incidences of bacterial canker at suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s and 2050s using D-PSA-K model with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Though there was a little difference between the estimation using RCP4.5 and that using RCP8.5, the estimated maximum disease incidences were more than 75% at all the suitable sites in Korea except for some southern coastal areas and Jeju island under the assumption that there are a plenty of infections to cause the symptoms. We also analyzed the intermediate and final outputs of D-PSA-K model to find out the trends on the change in disease incidence affected by climate change. Whereas increase of damage to kiwifruit canes in a non-frozen environment caused by bacterial canker was estimated at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios, rate of necrosis increase caused by the bacterial canker pathogen in a frozen environment during the last overwintering season was predicted to be reduced at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios. Directions of change in estimated maximum incidence varied with sites and scenarios. Whereas the maximum disease incidence at 3.14% of suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to increase by 10% or more in 2050s, the maximum disease incidence at 25.41% of the suitable sites under RCP8.5 scenario was estimated so.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.178-178
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• 2017

기후변화 및 지구온난화로 인하여 가뭄의 피해가 증가하는 현상을 보이고 있다. 본 연구는 연구유역인 청미천 유역을 대상으로 하여 유지유량 확보를 위한 수자원관리 사업의 효과를 분석하였다. 분석방법은 청미천 유역의 원부, 용평, 성호조절지에 용수를 공급하는 사업이 설치 전후로, 원부교 지점에서의 유지유량인 0.96 m s을 만족하는 일수의 변화에 대하여 평가하였다. 평가기 간은 1986년부터 2015년과 RCP 4.5 & 8.5 시나리오(2011년~2100년)에 대해 평가하였다. 이때, 평가를 위한 하천유량은 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형을 이용하여 모의한 결과를 토대로 산정하였다. 평가 결과 과거의 경우 사업 적용 전에는 0.96을 만족하지 못하는 일수가 전체대비 15.3%였지만 사업적용 후에는 12.73%로 2.56% 감소하였다. RCP 4.5의 경우 2011년부터 2040년은 2.77%가, 2041년부터 2070년은 2.65%, 2071년부터 2100년은 3.95%가 감소함을 확인 하였다. RCP 4.5의 경우 점점 감소율이 증가하는 추세였지만, RCP 8.5는 2011년부터 2040년은 2.95%, 2041년부터 2070년은 2.58%, 2071년부터 2100년은 2.39%의 구간별 부족일수 감소율을 보이고 있다. RCP 8.5의 경우는 RCP 4.5와 반대로 미래로 갈수록 부족일수 감소율이 점점 감소하는 추세를 보이고 있다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.505-517
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• 2013

In this study, water supply for Geum River Basin was calculated by regulating the future water supply of Dam with the future expected discharges. HadGEM2-AO, which is the climate change prediction model that KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) recently introduced was used for this study. The data of weather stations within the Geum River basin was extracted with the new Greenhouse Gas RCP scenario. The runoff of Geum river basin was simulated using the ArcSWAT for the 1988~2010 period. After validating the model, the similarity of results between simulation and observation at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was 92.25% and 95.40%, respectively, which shows a good agreement with observed data. As the result of analysis for the discharges, the discharges would increase 47.76% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 36.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water balance analysis was conducted by the KModSim for predicting the water supply under the runoff variation. We analyzed the volume of water intake with national standard of water supply 95% by Dam Operation Manual. By the analysis under RCP4.5 scenario, $9.41m^3/s$, $24.82m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam. By the analysis under the RCP8.5 scenario, $6.48m^3/s$, $21.08m^3/s$ of additional water supply is available on Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.53-62
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• 2013

Land-use/cover changes not only amplify or alleviate influence of climate changes but also they are representative factors to affect environmental change along with climate changes. Thus, the use of land-use/cover changes scenario, consistent climate change scenario is very important to evaluate reliable influences by climate change. The purpose for this study is to predict and analyze the future urban growth considering social and economic scenario from RCP scenario suggested by the 5th evaluation report of IPCC. This study sets land-use/cover changes scenario based on storyline from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenario. Urban growth rate for each scenario is calculated by urban area per person and GDP for the last 25 years and regression formula based on double logarithmic model. In addition, the urban demand is predicted by the future population and GDP suggested by the government. This predicted demand is spatially distributed by the urban growth probability map made by logistic regression. As a result, the accuracy of urban growth probability map is appeared to be 89.3~90.3% high and the prediction accuracy for RCP 4.5 showed higher value than that of RCP 8.5. Urban areas from 2020 to 2050 showed consistent growth while the rate of increasing urban areas for RCP 8.5 scenario showed higher value than that of RCP 4.5 scenario. Increase of urban areas is predicted by the fact that famlands are damaged. Especially RCP 8.5 scenario indicated more increase not only farmland but also forest than RCP 4.5 scenario. In addition, the decrease of farmland and forest showed higher level from metropolitan cities than province cities. The results of this study is believed to be used for basic data to clarify complex two-way effects quantitatively for future climate change, land-use/cover changes.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.247-247
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• 2015

Global Climate Model (GCM) is too coarse to apply at a basin scale. The spatial downcsaling is needed to used to permit the assessment of the hydrological changes of a basin. Furthermore, temporal downscaling is required to obtain hourly precipitation to analyze a small or medium basin because only few or several hours are used to determine the peak flows after it rains. In the current study, the spariotemporal distribution of downscaled hourly precipitation for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over South Korea is presented as well as its implications over hydrologica responses. Mean hourly precipitation significantly increases over the southern part of South Korea, especially during the morning time, and its increase becomes lower at later times of day in the RCP8.5 scenario. However, this increase cannot be propagated to the mainland due to the mountainous areas in the southern part of the country. Furthermore, the hydrological responses employing a distributed rainfall-runoff model show that there is a significant increase in the peak flow for the RCP8.5 scenario with a slight decrease for the RCP4.5 scenario. The current study concludes that the employed temporal downscaling method is suitable for obtaining the hourly precipitation data from daily GCM scenarios. In addition, the rainfall runoff simulation through the downscaled hourly precipitation is useful for investigating variations in the hydrological responses as related to future scenarios.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.561-568
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• 2019

Recently, Korea has suffered from severe droughts due to climate change. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the change of drought risk to develop appropriate drought mitigation measures. In this study, we investigated the changes of hydrologic risk of extreme drought using the current observed data and the projected data according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The bivariate frequency analysis was performed for the paired data of drought duration and severity extracted by the threshold level method and by eliminating pooling and minor droughts. Based on the hydrologic risk of extreme drought events Jeonbuk showed the highest risk and increased by 51 % than the past for the RCP 4.5 scenario, while Gangwon showed the highest risk and increased by 47 % than the past for the RCP 8.5 scenario.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.185-196
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• 2015

A conceptual watershed model HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) was applied to the Hwangryong river watershed to evaluate climate change effects on pollution loads of the river. For modeling purposes, the Hwangryong river watershed was divided into 7 sub-watersheds. The model was calibrated and validated for the river discharges against the data observed in 2011 at several monitoring stations. The RCP scenarios were set up for the model simulations after being corrected by change factor method. The simulation results of the RCP 4.5 scenario indicate that the annual river discharge and concentrations of BOD, TN, TP of the Hwangryong river will continually increase during the second-half of the 21st century. As for the RCP 8.5 scenario, the simulations results imply that the pollution loads will increase during the middle of the 21st century reflecting the pattern of precipitation. Monthly distributions of the pollution loads for the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 scenarios show it will increase the most in September and February, respectively.