• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.443-461
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• 2009

In order to overcome the lack of Korean credit rating migration data, we consider an empirical Bayes procedure to estimate credit rating migration matrices. We derive the posterior probabilities of Korean credit rating transitions by utilizing the Moody's rating migration data and the credit rating assignments from Korean rating agency as prior information and likelihood, respectively. Metrics based upon the average transition probability are developed to characterize the migration matrices and compare our Bayesian migration matrices with some given matrices. Time series data for the metrics show that our Bayesian matrices are stable, while the matrices based on Korean data have large variation in time. The bootstrap tests demonstrate that the results from the three estimation methods are significantly different and the Bayesian matrices are more affected by Korean data than the Moody's data. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations for computing the values of a portfolio and its credit VaRs are performed to compare these migration matrices.

• The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.1-17
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to suggest an efficient way for ventures to achieve innovation performance through R&D cooperative arrangements. Achieving innovation is one of the critical factors for the survival of ventures. Unlike established firms, ventures often do not have the specialized assets necessary to take technological developments to the product and market stages. Young and resource-constrained firms can achieve innovation by finding and accessing to the complementary resources from R&D cooperation. In the current business environment, many firms are likely to engage in multiple simultaneous R&D cooperations with different partners. Recent research stream addresses the importance of efficient cooperation management from the holistic portfolio perspective. Since maintaining the multiple cooperative relations require substantial amount of time and effort, managing cooperative relationships play a more important role to resource-constrained firms. In order to find an efficient composition of R&D cooperative partners, we mainly focus on the diversity of partner type and dependence level in partnership. We analyze the data on Korean manufacturing ventures collected in the Korean Innovation Survey (KIS) which was conducted by the Science and Technology Policy Institute (STEPI). The KIS questionnaire assesses the existence of cooperative relationships with different types of partners respectively. The types of cooperating partners are affiliated companies, suppliers, clients & customers, competitors or other firms in the same industry, consulting firms, universities, and research institutes. We confirm that ventures obtain relatively higher benefits from R&D cooperation compared with established firms in terms of innovation performance. The results show that a moderate level of diversity in cooperative partner type composition increases innovation. Moreover, diversity of cooperation dependency among the partners enhances innovation performance. Likewise, concentrating on the quality aspects of cooperative composition, such as diversity of partners and degree of dependencies, this study offers some implications for ventures in managing partners from an integrative perspective.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.620-627
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• 2003

The real option pricing theory has emerged as the new investment decision-making techniques superceding the traditional discounted cash flow techniques and thus has greatly received muck attention from academics and practitioners in these days the theory has been widely applied to a variety of corporate strategic projects such as a new drug R&D, an internet start-up. an advanced manufacturing system. and so on A lot of people who are interested in the real option pricing theory complain that it is difficult to understand the true meaning of the real option value. though. One of the most conspicuous reasons for the complaint may be due to the fact that there exit many different ways to calculate the real options value in this paper, we will present a replicating portfolio method. a risk-neutral probability method. a risk-adjusted discount rate method (quasi capital asset pricing method). and an opportunity cost concept-based method under the conditions of a binomial lattice option pricing theory.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2015.07a
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• pp.455-456
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• 2015

2010년 민간 기업의 1,000 MW 규모 석탄 화력 발전소가 전력수급 기본계획에 최초로 반영된 이래로 이들이 해결해야 하는 가장 큰 난제는 RPS 제도 도입과 그에 따른 REC 공급의무이다. 만약 민간 석탄 발전소들이 REC 공급의무를 불이행하게 된다면, 막대한 과징금이 부과되기 때문에 이들의 전력생산 비용함수는 이를 반영하여 수정되어야 한다. 더 나아가 REC 공급의무는 발전량에 따라 결정되기 때문에, 민간 발전사업자가 자신의 REC 공급의무 이행능력이 부족하다고 판단할 경우 자체적으로 발전량을 감축하여 과징금을 낮추는 전략을 선택할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 RPS 제도 도입에 따른 민간 석탄 발전소의 비용함수 변화와 이윤(수익) 극대화를 위하여 발전량을 감소시키는 메커니즘을 분석하였다.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.49-61
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• 2014

We investigate the hedging effectiveness of incorporating single-stock futures into the corresponding stocks. Investing in only stocks frequently causes too much risk when market volatility suddenly rises. We found that single-stock futures help reduce the variance and risk levels of the corresponding stocks invested. We use daily prices of Korean stocks and their corresponding futures for the time period from December 2009 to August 2013 to test the hedging effect. We also use system trading technique that uses automatic trading program which also has several simulation functions. Moving average strategy, Stochastic's strategy, Larry William's %R strategy have been considered for hedging strategy of the futures. Hedging effectiveness of each strategy was analyzed by percent reduction in the variance between the hedged and the unhedged variance. The results clearly showed that examined hedging strategies reduce price volatility risk compared to unhedged portfolio.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.1201-1210
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• 2019

Stock price is characterized as being mutable, non-linear and stochastic. These key characteristics are known to have a direct influence on the stock markets globally. Given that the stock price data often contain both linear and non-linear patterns, no single model can be adequate in modelling and predicting time series data. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model cannot deal with non-linear relationships, however, it provides an accurate and effective way to process autocorrelation and non-stationary data in time series forecasting. On the other hand, the neural network provides an effective prediction of non-linear sequences. As a result, in this study, we used a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model to forecast the monthly closing price of the Shanghai composite index and Shenzhen component index.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.513-521
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• 2020

In this paper, we have developed a Fama - French five factor model (FF5 model) from Fama & French (2015) by using concept of time-varying coefficient. For a data set, we have used monthly data form Kenneth R. French home page, it include Japan portfolios (classified by using size and book-to-market) and 5 factors from July 1990 to April 2020. The first analysis, we used Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF test) for the stationary test, from the result, all Japan portfolios and 5 factors are stationary. Next analysis, we estimated a coefficient of Fama - French five factor model by using a generalized additive model with a thin-plate spline to create the time-varying coefficient Fama - French five factor model (TV-FF5 model). The benefit of this study is TV-FF5 model which can capture a different effect at different times of 5 factors but the traditional FF5 model can't do it. From the result, we can show a time-varying coefficient in all factors and in all portfolios, for time-varying coefficients of Rm-Rf, SMB, and HML are significant for all Japan portfolios, time-varying coefficients of RMW are positively significant for SM, and SH portfolio and time-varying coefficients of CMA are significant for SM, SH, and BM portfolio.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.137-148
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to implement variable selection algorithm which helps construct a reliable linear regression model. If we use all candidate variables to construct a linear regression model, the significance of the model will be decreased and it will cause 'Curse of Dimensionality'. And if the number of data is less than the number of variables (dimension), we cannot construct the regression model. Due to these problems, we consider the variable selection problem as a combinatorial optimization problem, and apply GA (Genetic Algorithm) to the problem. Typical measures of estimating statistical significance are $R^2$, F-value of regression model, t-value of regression coefficients, and standard error of estimates. We design GA to solve multi-objective functions, because statistical significance of model is not to be estimated by a single measure. We perform experiments using simulation data, designed to consider various kinds of situations. As a result, it shows better performance than LARS (Least Angle Regression) which is an algorithm to solve variable selection problems. We modify algorithm to solve portfolio selection problem which construct portfolio by selecting stocks. We conclude that the algorithm is able to solve real problems.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.9
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• pp.356-365
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• 2017

Most studies of the effects of corporate patents on managerial performance conducted to date have been based on internally-generated patents. However, global pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies acquire patents not only from internal research and development (R&D), but also through university-industry collaboration and purchase. Focusing on this issue, our study collected patents from various sources, including internal R&D, purchased patents, and university-industry collaboration, to examine the real effects more accurately. Additionally, our study used a finite time lag model to consider the time lag between patent and corporate performance. The results of the quantitative analysis of the relationship between patents and corporate financial performance revealed that patent quantitative levels had less impact on sales than other types. However, quantitative patents levels appeared to have a significant impact on market value. Moreover, quantitative patent levels appeared to moderate impact on corporate profit. Patents acquired by internal R&D had the greatest impact on market value, while purchased patents had the greatest impact on corporate profit and sales. The purchased patents had a significant effect on financial performance in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies because of the long time required and expense associated with R&D. Overall, the results of this study provide the basis for global pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies to configure an optimal patent portfolio.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.12
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• pp.473-484
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• 2017

This study analyzed collaborative R&D projects funded by the Korean government from 2013-2015. For this analysis, input and output variables of projects were considered, and a combination of those variables was itemized. The output-oriented variable return to scale (VRS) model extended from the DEA methodology was adopted to evaluate the cooperation efficiency of the types of R&D collaboration, which were classified according to the project leader's organizations. In addition, hierarchical cluster analysis was conducted using the efficiency results of the scientific, technical, and economical outcome models. The results showed that cooperation efficiency between large companies and public research institutions was relatively high. Conversely, cooperation among medium-sized companies, small businesses and universities was particularly inefficient. The clustering results demonstrated the various strengths and weaknesses of the types depending on publications, patents, technical loyalties and the number of commercialization. In conclusion, this study suggests differentiated investment portfolios and strategies based on the efficiency results of diverse cooperation types among industries, universities and public research institutions.