• 제목/요약/키워드: Quantitative-Risk-Analysis

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A Study on the Construction Cost Risk through Analyzing the Actual Cost of Public Apartment (공공주택 실적공사비 분석을 통한 공사비 리스크에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Woo-Sung;Go, Seong-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 2011
  • Construction business, which is complex and long-term business, requires accurate estimation and verification in construction costs and payment procedure from project planning to the completion of construction phase. And more importantly, it is necessary to investigate and determine the risk factors related to construction costs during the entire process including design planning, construction drawings, and quantity calculating. But, currently, it is not seem to be adequate to cope with the risk and increased construction costs against the operational budget in terms of actual costs when screening and estimating the bidding cost of public apartment. Therefore, this study selected and analyzed 40 sites' report of construction completion account from 2004 to 2010 focused on the adequacy on the modification of contract and design planning and on the complication of the budget in the beginning of the project. This study deducted various risk causes and results by analyzing actual costs according to year, architectural area, region, construction cost and sale/lease classification. We could find out construction risk according to annual variation of government policy and economy, and also deducted risk items by construction characteristic according to region and architectural area. Study result, we first found out the problems of lowest price award system according to the construction costs. The weight of the cost increase risk was analyzed that subcontract and material costs are very high. Roof and tile work were analyzed highly in subcontract cost risk and reinforcing bar and cement were analyzed highly in material cost risk, among direct construction cost. Finally, this study results could be used in comparing the categories of the construction costs made by specific construction process, belonging to the construction costs, with the operational budget made in the beginning of the project that can enable to grasp unpredictable risks over the construction costs and making quantitative analysis for it through analyzing the range of fluctuation and variations led by the fluctuations in the actual construction costs.

Meta-analysis on the Blood Lipids as Risk Factors of Coronary Heart Diseases in Koreans (한국인 관상동맥성 심질환의 위험요인으로서 혈청지질에 관한 메타분석)

  • Kim, Ki-Soon;Kim, Yang-Ok;Park, Jong;Park, Jong-Ku;Kim, Chun-Bae;Jee, Sun-Ha;Ryu, So-Yeon
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.491-498
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    • 1999
  • Objectives : To determine the relations between seven blood lipids such as total cholesterol(TC), triglyceride(TG), HDL-cholesterol(HDL), LDL-cholesterol(LDL), apolipoprotein A-1(Apo A1), apolipoprotein B(Apo B) and lipoprotein(a)(Lp(A)) and the coronary heart diseases(CHD), the quantitative techniques of meta-analysis were applied to studios of blood lipids and CHD in Koreans. Methods : We searched the Korean and the English literature published from 1980 to August, 1997 by manual search and bibliography review. Information on sample size, study design, participant characteristics(gender, age) and blood lipid levels were abstracted by reviewers using inclusion criteria. Estimates of the effect sizes of blood lipid levels on CHD in Koreans and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated using random-effect models. Results : We identified 16 case-control studies to apply meta-analysis. The overall effect sizes for CHD were 20.3(95% CI: 14.23-20.22) in TC, 24.8(95% CI: 12.6-36.86) in TG, 15.16(95% CI: 3.99-26.33) in LDL, -3.48(95% CI: -5.79 - -1.17) in HDL, -9.78(95% CI: -16.98 - -2.58) in Apo-a1, 17.88(95% CI: 9.72-26.05) in Apo B and 18.95(95% CI: 17.88-20.02) in Lp(a). Conclusions : Our results suggested that seven blood lipids were significantly associated with CHD in Koreans. Well-designed and prospective studies between blood lipids and CMD in Koreans should be peformed.

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A Study on Surveying Functions of RBI Software (RBI 소프트웨어의 기능에 관한 조사연구)

  • Song J S;Shim S H;No W H;Park J H;Choi S C;Kwon J R;Kim J Y;Yoon K B
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.5 no.4 s.16
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    • pp.56-61
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    • 2001
  • Recently RBI softwares have received widespread interests from various industries. The available RBI softwares have variety of levels of analysis, fields of applications and damage mechanisms considered, which depend on the software developing institutes. In this paper results of a GSP(Group Sponsored Project) entitled 'Study on Surveying Functions of Foreign RBI Softwares' are summarized. A part of the study is explained in detail as a sample case for showing the contents of the project. Based on the demo softwares as well as the open documents and contents obtained in the web pages of the developer critical comparisons of the well-known RBI softwares were made. The required functions of the optimal RBI software is also discussed from the review results of this study.

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System Dynamics Analysis for Human Factors of Ship's Collision (SD법에 의한 선박충돌사고의 인적요인 분석)

  • Jang Woon Jae;Keum Jong Soo
    • Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.7-11
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    • 2003
  • Ship is being operated under a highly dynamic environments and many factors are related with ship's collision and those factors are interacting. So, an analysis on the ship's collision causes is very important to prepare countermeasures which will ensure the safe navigation. And the analysis confirmed that ship's collision is occurred most frequently and the cause is closely related with human factor. The main purpose of this study is to build a model of human factors in ship's collision cause using SD(System Dynamics} approach and to measure a effect which is risk control countermeasures of ship's collision. To achieve this aim, the structure analysis on the causes of ship's collision using FSM are performed, and the structure was changed by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops in casual map. This model was performed over 20 years(1993-2012) in a standard simulation model and 8 policy simulation models.

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A Study on the System Dynamics Analysis for Human Factors in Ship′s Collision Accidents (시스템 다이내믹스에 의한 선박충돌사고의 인적요인 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Keum, Jong-Soo;Yang, Weon-Jae;Jang, Woon-Jae
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.493-498
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    • 2003
  • Ship is being operated under a highly dynamic environments and many factors are related with ship's collision and those factors are interacting. So, An analysis on the ship's collision muses is very important to prepare countermeasures which will ensure the safe navigation. And the analysis confirmed that ship's collision is occurred most frequently and the muse is closely related with human factor. The main purpose of this study is to build a model of human factors in ship's collision muse using SD(System Dynamics} approach and to measure a effect which is risk control countermeasures of ship's collision. To achieve this aim, the structure analysis on the muses of ship's collision using FSM are performed, and the structure was changed by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops in casual map. This model was performed over 20 years(1993-2012) in a standard simulation model and 8 policy simulation models.

The Setting of Restoration Priority and Assessment for Mountain Range Fragmented Points in Daegu : Focused on the Ecological Aspect (생태적 측면에서의 대구광역시 산줄기 단절지점 평가 및 복원우선순위 설정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hyo;Ra, Jung-Hwa;Kwon, Oh-Sung;Cho, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the fragmented points of mountain ranges in Daegu metropolitan city using New Sangyeongpyo (Chart of Mountain Ranges), road system map and GIS spatial analysis, and to prioritize the identified fragmented points for restoration based on quantitative assessment. Moreover, this study proposes restoration plans reflecting the assessment results and characteristics of each fragmented point. The results of this study are summarized as follows: First of all, analysis of the distribution of mountain ranges in Daegu metropolitan city showed that jimaek and semaek in Daegu account for 2% of all mountain ranges in the country, implying that the mountain ranges of Daegu do not hold significant ranking on a national level. However, it was found that numerous fragmented points are appearing due to roads. According to the analysis, 35 fragmented points were identified, of which 15 were found to be restorable. In terms of restoration potential and involved risks, assessment results of the 15 fragmented points indicated that 6 points are at Grade I, 3 points are at Grade II and 6 points are at Grade III. Therefore, a methodology of restoring fragmented mountain ranges was proposed through three suggestions of restoration plans that consider the characteristics of each fragmented points. The results of this study are expected to be highly useful as basic data for effective restoration of mountain ranges in connection with mountain range restorations and relevant projects implemented on a national level in the future.

Research on System Architecture and Methodology based on MITRE ATT&CK for Experiment Analysis on Cyber Warfare Simulation

  • Ahn, Myung Kil;Lee, Jung-Ryun
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.8
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we propose a system architecture and methodology based on cyber kill chain and MITRE ATT&CK for experiment analysis on cyber warfare simulation. Threat analysis is possible by applying various attacks that have actually occurred with continuous updates to reflect newly emerging attacks. In terms of cyber attack and defense, the current system(AS-IS) and the new system(TO-BE) are analyzed for effectiveness and quantitative results are presented. It can be used to establish proactive cyber COA(Course of Action) strategy, and also for strategic decision making. Through a case study, we presented the usability of the system architecture and methodology proposed in this paper. The proposed method will contribute to strengthening cyber warfare capabilities by increasing the level of technology for cyber warfare experiments.

Development of Marine Casualty Forecasting System (I). Construction and Analysis of Marine Casualty Numerical D/B (해양사고 예보 시스템 개발(I): 해양사고 수량화 D/B구축과 분석)

  • Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.359-366
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    • 2003
  • The paper describes on the construction and analysis of marine casualty numerical D/B (N-D/B) to implement Korean MArine Casualty Forecasting System (K-MACFOS). The main target of K-MACFOS is to broadcast the prediction number and risk level of marine casualties as like daily weather forecasting. The data relating to a total of 724 ship casualties in the west-southern sea area (33oN∼35oN, 124oE∼127oE) of Korean peninsula for 11 years (1990∼2000) have been compiled and converted into quantitative data with 14 numeric conversion scales. Through the statistical analysis using contour-map visualization, the usability of N-D/B and the casualty features of the target sea areas are discussed. In addition, the optimum year-band selection method is also proposed to provide correct N-D/B analysis and precise prediction of the number of marine casualties.

Association between dietary flavanones intake and lipid profiles according to the presence of metabolic syndrome in Korean women with type 2 diabetes mellitus

  • Oh, Ji Soo;Kim, Hyesook;Vijayakumar, Aswathy;Kwon, Oran;Choi, Young Ju;Huh, Kap Bum;Chang, Namsoo
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2016
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: This study was aimed at examining the association between dietary flavanones intake and lipid profiles according to the presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in Korean women with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). SUBJECTS/METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was performed among 502 female T2DM patients (non-MetS group; n = 129, MetS group; n = 373) who were recruited from the Huh's Diabetes Clinic in Seoul, Korea between 2005 and 2011. The dietary intake was assessed by a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and the data was analyzed using the Computer Aided Nutritional Analysis program (CAN-Pro) version 4.0 software. The intake of flavanones was estimated on the basis of the flavonoid database. RESULTS: In the multiple linear regression analysis after adjustment for confounding factors, daily flavanones intake was negatively associated with CVD risk factors such as total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and apoB and apoB/apoA1 ratio only in the MetS group but not in the non-MetS group. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the odds ratio for a higher apoB/apoA1 ratio above the median (${\geq}0.74$) was significantly low in the $4^{th}$ quartile compared to that in the $1^{st}$ quartile of dietary flavanones intake [OR: 0.477, 95% CI: 0.255-0.894, P for trend = 0.0377] in the MetS group. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary flavanones intake was inversely associated with the apoB/apoA1 ratio, suggesting a potential protective effect of flavanones against CVD in T2DM women with MetS.

Efficacy of Acupuncture for Parkinson's Disease over the Last Decade: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

  • Yeonju Kim;Yigun Lim;Subin Ahn;Junyeop Oh;Yoonbyeong Chae;Yoomin Choi;Jong Uk Kim
    • Journal of Acupuncture Research
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.29-52
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    • 2024
  • The aim of this review is to consolidate findings from clinical investigations spanning the past decade regarding the impact of acupuncture on Parkinson's disease (PD). The objective is to assess the efficacy of acupuncture as a therapeutic approach to PD, with the intention of informing future clinical practices and advancing the foundation for subsequent research endeavors in this area. A comprehensive literature search was conducted to identify clinical trials exploring the effects of acupuncture on PD between January 2014 and August 2023. Databases search included PubMed, EMBASE, CNKI, OASIS, KISS, KMBASE, RISS, and ScienceON. Quantitative evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was systematically reviewed, and the methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using Cochrane's risk of bias tool. Meta-analysis was performed using Review Manager (RevMan) 5.4.1 software. The systematic review encompassed a total of 38 RCTs involving 2,786 participants. Meta-analysis of 12 studies revealed that individuals treated with a combination of acupuncture and Western medicine exhibited notable improvements compared to those receiving Western medicine alone or sham acupuncture alongside Western medicine. However, the overall quality of the RCTs was deemed low, and no serious adverse events were reported. Across clinical investigations conducted in the past decade, acupuncture appears to hold promise as a complementary treatment for PD patients when administered alongside Western medicine. Nevertheless, this study identifies certain limitations that warrant consideration in future research endeavors. Enhanced emphasis on conducting high-quality RCTs is imperative to comprehensively evaluate the efficacy of acupuncture in managing PD.