• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative-Risk-Analysis

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Community-Based Health Education and Communication Model Development for Opisthorchiasis Prevention in a High Risk Area, Khon Kaen Province, Thailand

  • Promthet, Paitoon;Kessomboon, Pattapong;Promthet, Supannee
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.17
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    • pp.7789-7794
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    • 2015
  • Background: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of a community-based health education and communication programme on reducing liver fluke infections caused by the consumption of uncooked fish among people in a high-risk area of Thailand. Materials and Methods: The study was quasi-experimental in nature, with three-stages. Stage 1 involved a situational and capacity analysis of designated communities in Khon Kaen province. This was followed by the development of a model for community-based health education and communication to prevent liver fluke infections among high-risk people, and, lastly, implementation and evaluation of the model were performed. Data were collected using both qualitative and quantitative methods. In total, 390 people were surveyed, and quasi-experimental and comparison groups, each with 90 people, were assessed between May 2011 and April 2012. Analysis was using statistical OR, 95 % CI, the Willcoxon matched pairs signed ranks test, the chi-square test, and the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: The findings showed that most respondents had a high level of knowledge and understanding of liver fluke disease (89.5%, 95% CI:86.0-92.4), and positive attitudes toward the prevention of the disease (94.4%, 95% CI:91.6-96.4). However, with regard to changes in consumption of uncooked fish, most respondents were still in the pre-contemplation phase (55.1%, 95% CI:50.0-60.1), followed by the contemplation phase, 22.6%. Furthermore, four factors were found to be associated with the consumption of uncooked fish - the consumption of alcohol (OR 4.16, 95% CI:1.79-9.65), gender (OR 3.17, 95% CI:1.53-6.54), smoking (OR 3.03, 95% CI:1.31-7.05), and age 40 years and above (OR 2.68, 95% CI:1.02-7.05). After nine months of the health education and communication programme using local media based on local wisdom, culture and persons, the results showed that, compared to the control group, members of the experimental group had a higher level of knowledge, a better attitude and lower levels of ill-advised consumption behaviour. Also, it was found that consumption of uncooked fish, by an assessment of the level of stage of change, was reduced. (p-value 0.002). Conclusions: The health education and communication programme developed as part of the study was effective in changing the consumption of uncooked fish. Therefore, this approach should be promoted in other high-risk areas in Thailand in the future.

Development of a Fire Human Reliability Analysis Procedure for Full Power Operation of the Korean Nuclear Power Plants (국내 전출력 원전 적용 화재 인간신뢰도분석 절차 개발)

  • Choi, Sun Yeong;Kang, Dae Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a fire HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) procedure for full power operation of domestic NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). For the development of fire HRA procedure, the recent research results of NUREG-1921 in an effort to meet the requirements of the ASME/ANS PRA Standard were reviewed. The K-HRA method, a standard method for HRA of a domestic level 1 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) and fire related procedures in domestic NPPs were reviewed. Based on the review, a procedure for the fire HRA required for a domestic fire PSA based on the K-HRA method was developed. To this end, HRA issues such as new operator actions required in the event of a fire and complexity of fire situations were considered. Based on the four kinds of HFE (Human Failure Event) developed for a fire HRA in this research, a qualitative analysis such as feasibility evaluation was suggested. And also a quantitative analysis process which consists of screening analysis and detailed analysis was proposed. For the qualitative analysis, a screening analysis by NUREG-1921 was used. In this research, the screening criteria for the screening analysis was modified to reduce vague description and to reflect recent experimental results. For a detailed analysis, the K-HRA method and scoping analysis by NUREG-1921 were adopted. To apply K-HRA to fire HRA for quantification, efforts to modify PSFs (Performance Shaping Factors) of K-HRA to reflect fire situation and effects were made. For example, an absence of STA (Shift Technical Advisor) to command a fire brigade at a fire area is considered and the absence time should be reflected for a HEP (Human Error Probability) quantification. Based on the fire HRA procedure developed in this paper, a case study for HEP quantification such as a screening analysis and detailed analysis with the modified K-HRA was performed. It is expected that the HRA procedure suggested in this paper will be utilized for fire PSA for domestic NPPs as it is the first attempt to establish an HRA process considering fire effects.

Application of Indicator Geostatistics for Probabilistic Uncertainty and Risk Analyses of Geochemical Data (지화학 자료의 확률론적 불확실성 및 위험성 분석을 위한 지시자 지구통계학의 응용)

  • Park, No-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.301-312
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    • 2010
  • Geochemical data have been regarded as one of the important environmental variables in the environmental management. Since they are often sampled at sparse locations, it is important not only to predict attribute values at unsampled locations, but also to assess the uncertainty attached to the prediction for further analysis. The main objective of this paper is to exemplify how indicator geostatistics can be effectively applied to geochemical data processing for providing decision-supporting information as well as spatial distribution of the geochemical data. A whole geostatistical analysis framework, which includes probabilistic uncertainty modeling, classification and risk analysis, was illustrated through a case study of cadmium mapping. A conditional cumulative distribution function (ccdf) was first modeled by indicator kriging, and then e-type estimates and conditional variance were computed for spatial distribution of cadmium and quantitative uncertainty measures, respectively. Two different classification criteria such as a probability thresholding and an attribute thresholding were applied to delineate contaminated and safe areas. Finally, additional sampling locations were extracted from the coefficient of variation that accounts for both the conditional variance and the difference between attribute values and thresholding values. It is suggested that the indicator geostatistical framework illustrated in this study be a useful tool for analyzing any environmental variables including geochemical data for decision-making in the presence of uncertainty.

A Meta-Analysis of Influencing Soybean Food Interventions on the Metabolic Syndrome Risk Factors Utilizing Big Data (빅 데이터 분석을 활용한 콩 식품 중재가 대사증후군 위험요인에 미치는 영향 메타분석)

  • Yu, Ok-Kyeong;Cha, Youn-Soo;Jin, Chan-Yong;Nam, Soo-Tai
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.134-137
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    • 2016
  • Big data analysis refers the ability to store, manage and analyze collected data from an existing database management tool. In addition, extract value from large amounts of structured or unstructured data set and means the technology to analyze the results. Meta-analysis is a statistical integration method that delivers an opportunity to overview the entire result of integrating and analyzing many quantitative research results. Meta-analysis is sometimes expressed as an analysis of another analysis. Commonly, factors of metabolic syndrome can be defined as abdominal obesity, high triglycerides, low high density lipoprotein cholesterol, elevated blood pressure, and elevated fasting glucose. This study will find meaningful mediator variables for criterion variables that affect before and after the metabolic syndrome studies, on the basis of the results of a meta-analysis. We reviewed a total of 5 studies related to metabolic syndrome published in Korea between 2000 and 2016, where a cause and effect relationship is established between variables that are specified in the conceptual model of this study.

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Trends in Research Studies Published in Journal of Korean Academy of Fundamentals of Nursing: 2009-2011 (최근 3년간 기본간호학회지 게재 논문 분석)

  • Kim, Kyung-Hee;Chang, Sung-Ok;Kang, Hyun-Sook;Kim, Keum-Soon;Kim, Jong-Im;Kim, Hwa-Soon;Park, Jin-Hee;Eom, Mi-Ran;Won, Jong-Soon;Youn, Mi-Sun;Lee, Og-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Fundamentals of Nursing
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.383-391
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify the trends in research studies published in Journal of Korean Academy of Fundamentals of Nursing from 2009 to 2011. Methods: A total of 156 studies published between 2009 and 2011 were reviewed using analysis criteria developed by the researchers. Results: Quantitative studies accounted for 90.4% and qualitative studies, 8.3%. The research designs for the quantitative studies were experimental, 28.0% and survey, 63.8%. IRB approval was received for only 25.6% of the studies and 61.0% of studies presented participant criteria. Questionnaires were used for data collection in 90.8% of studies. Individual or group education was the most frequent intervention in the experimental studies. Conclusion: The results indicate that more randomized controlled trials with a low risk of bias are needed to support greater evidence-based nursing practice. Considering the low rate of ethical consideration, it is important that stricter application of research methods needs to be encouraged to improve the quality of Journal of Korean Academy of Fundamentals of Nursing.

Quantitative Analysis of Cancer-associated Gene Methylation Connected to Risk Factors in Korean Colorectal Cancer Patients

  • Kang, Ho-Jin;Kim, Eun-Jeong;Kim, Byoung-Gwon;You, Chang-Hun;Lee, Sang-Yong;Kim, Dong-Il;Hong, Young-Seoub
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.251-258
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: The purpose of this paper was to elucidate the potential methylation levels of adjacent normal and cancer tissues by comparing them with normal colorectal tissues, and to describe the correlations between the methylation and clinical parameters in Korean colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Methods: Hypermethylation profiles of nine genes (RASSF1, APC, $p16^{INK4a}$, Twist1, E-cadherin, TIMP3, Smad4, COX2, and ABCB1) were examined with 100 sets of cancer tissues and 14 normal colorectal tissues. We determined the hypermethylation at a given level by a percent of methylation ratio value of 10 using quantitative methylation real-time polymerase chain reaction. Results: Nine genes' hypermethylation levels in Korean CRC patient tissues were increased more higher than normal colorectal tissues. However, the amounts of $p16^{INK4a}$ and E-cadherin gene hypermethylation in normal and CRC tissues were not significantly different nor did TIMP3 gene hypermethylation in adjacent normal and cancer tissues differ significantly. The hypermethylation of TIMP3, Ecadherin, ABCB1, and COX2 genes among other genes were abundantly found in normal colorectal tissues. The hypermethylation of nine genes' methylation in cancer tissues was not significantly associated with any clinical parameters. In Cohen's kappa test, it was moderately observed that RASSF1 was related with E-cadherin, and Smad4 with ABCB1 and COX2. Conclusions: This study provides evidence for different hypermethylation patterns of cancer-associated genes in normal and CRC tissues, which may serve as useful information on CRC cancer progression.

A Study on the Probabilistic Vulnerability Assessment of COTS O/S based I&C System (상용 OS기반 제어시스템 확률론적 취약점 평가 방안 연구)

  • Euom, Ieck-Chae
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to find out quantitative vulnerability assessment about COTS(Commercial Off The Shelf) O/S based I&C System. This paper analyzed vulnerability's lifecycle and it's impact. this paper is to develop a quantitative assessment of overall cyber security risks and vulnerabilities I&C System by studying the vulnerability analysis and prediction method. The probabilistic vulnerability assessment method proposed in this study suggests a modeling method that enables setting priority of patches, threshold setting of vulnerable size, and attack path in a commercial OS-based measurement control system that is difficult to patch an immediate vulnerability.

A Study on the Quantitative Evaluation of Outdoor-Recreational Function and User Satisfaction with Urban Park and Open Space (도시공원녹지에 대한 실외위락기능과 만족도의 계량적 평가에 관한 연구)

  • 박승범
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.127-140
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    • 1991
  • The Primary purpose of this study is to investigate factors and variables which have significant effects on user satisfaction with recreational facilities in Taejong-Dae recreational complex, thereby establishing indices of planning and development of urban parks and open space. To test the causal models of this research, the date were gathered by self-administered questionnaires from 967 households in Pusan City which were selected by the multi-stage probability sampling methood. The analysis of the multi-stage primarily consists of two phase : The first analysis dealt exploratory factor analysis which identified major factors involved in satisfaction with recreational activities and facilities in Taejong-Dae recreational complex and the second analysis tested the fit of the causal models of this research by employing LISREL methodology. There are three advantages of using LISREL over other multivariate analysis methods : First, measurement error is allowed and calculated in LISREL, otherwise there is a risk of seriously misleading estimates of coefficients ; Second, LISREL deals with latent variables or unmeasured variables ; Third, it enables to test causal relations among variables. The factors analysis identified that five factors are involved in satisfaction with recreational facilities. The five factors of satisfaction with recreational facilities are space for repose and relaxation, active recreation facilities such as pool and zoo, physical exercise facility, convenience and maintenance facility, and linear facility, and linear facility for walking. The second phase analysis tested the fit of the causal models for satisfaction with recreational facilities to the data and identified statistically significant causal linkage among overall satisfaction with Taejong-Dae recreational complex, other endogenous factors and exogenous variables. Overall fits of both causal models were very good. Among endogenous factors, facility for repose and relaxation. linear facility for walking, active recreation facility, facility for convenience and maintenance were identified as having significant effects on overall satisfaction. Exogenous variables which have significant effects on endogenous variables wer also identified. These significant relationships indicate important factors and variables that should be considered in planning and development of the recreational complex. On the basis of these significant causal relationships, implications for planning and the delovepment of Taejong-Dae recreational complex were suggested.

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Investigating the Effect of Prior Damage on the Post-earthquake Fire Resistance of Reinforced Concrete Portal Frames

  • Ronagh, Hamid Reza;Behnam, Behrouz
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.209-220
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    • 2012
  • Post-earthquake fire (PEF) can lead to a rapid collapse of buildings that have been partially damaged as a result of a prior earthquake. Almost all standards and codes for the design of structures against earthquake ignore the risk of PEF, and thus buildings designed using those codes could be too weak when subjected to a fire after an earthquake. An investigation based on sequential analysis inspired by FEMA356 is performed here on the immediate occupancy (IO), life safety (LS) and collapse prevention (CP) performance levels of two portal frames, after they are pushed to arrive at a certain level of displacement corresponding to the mentioned performance level. This investigation is followed by a fire analysis of the damaged frames, examining the time taken for the damaged frames to collapse. As a point of reference, a fire analysis is also performed for undamaged frames and before the occurrence of earthquake. The results indicate that while there is minor difference between the fire resistances of the fire-alone situation and the frames pushed to the IO level of performance, a notable difference is observed between the fire-alone analysis and the frames pushed to arrive at LS and CP levels of performance and exposed to PEF. The results also show that exposing only the beams to fire results in a higher decline of the fire resistance, compared to exposing only the columns to fire. Furthermore, the results show that the frames pushed to arrive at LS and CP levels of performance collapse in a global collapse mode laterally, whereas at the IO level of performance and fire-alone situation, the collapse mechanism is mostly local through the collapse of beams. Whilst the investigation is conducted for a certain class of portal frames, the results confirm the need for the incorporation of PEF into the process of analysis and design, and provide some quantitative measures on the level of associated effects.

Semiquantitative Failure Mode, Effect and Criticality Analysis for Reliability Analysis of Solid Rocket Propulsion System (고체 로켓 추진 기관의 신뢰성 분석을 위한 준-정량적 FMECA)

  • Moon, Keun Hwan;Kim, Jin Kon;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.631-638
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    • 2015
  • In this study, semiquantitative failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) for the reliability analysis of a solid rocket propulsion system is performed. The semiquantitative FMECA is composed of failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and criticality analysis (CA). To perform FMECA, the structure of the solid rocket propulsion system is divided into 43 parts down to the component level, and FMEA is conducted at the design stage considering 137 potential failure modes. CA is then conducted for each failure mode, during which the criticality number is estimated using the failure rate databases. The results demonstrate the relationship between potential failure modes, causes, and effects, and their risk priorities are evaluated qualitatively. Additionally, several failure modes with higher criticality and severity values are selected for high-priority improvement.