• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative-Risk-Analysis

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Risk Assessment for Salmonellosis in Chicken in South Korea: The Effect of Salmonella Concentration in Chicken at Retail

  • Jeong, Jaewoon;Chon, Jung-Whan;Kim, Hyunsook;Song, Kwang-Young;Seo, Kun-Ho
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.1043-1054
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    • 2018
  • Salmonellosis caused by chicken consumption has been a critical issue in food safety worldwide, including in Korea. The probability of illness from consumption of chicken was simulated in study, based on the recipe of Dakgalbi, a commonly eaten chicken dish in Korea. Additionally, the processing stage at slaughterhouses to decrease Salmonella concentration in broilers was modeled to explore its effect on the likelihood of illness. A Monte Carlo simulation model was created using @RISK. Prevalence of Salmonella in chickens at the retail stage was found to be predominantly important in determining the probability of illness. Other than the prevalence, cooking temperature was found to have the largest impact on the probability of illness. The results also demonstrated that, although chlorination is a powerful tool for decreasing the Salmonella concentration in chicken, this effect did not last long and was negated by the following stages. This study analyzes the effects of variables of the retail-to-table pathway on the likelihood of salmonellosis in broiler consumption, and also evaluates the processing step used to decrease the contamination level of Salmonella in broilers at slaughterhouses. According to the results, we suggest that methods to decrease the contamination level of Salmonella such as chlorination had little effect on decreasing the probability of illness. Overall, these results suggest that preventing contamination of broiler with Salmonella must be a top priority and that methods to reduce the concentration of Salmonella in broilers at slaughterhouses hardly contribute to safe consumption of Salmonella-contaminated chicken.

Development of Korean Food-Chemical Ranking and Scoring System (Food-CRS-Korea) and Its Application to Prioritizing Food Toxic Chemicals Associated with Environmental Pollutants (환경유래 식품오염물질의 우선순위 선정 기법 (Food-CRS-Korea)의 개발과 적용)

  • Yang, Ji-Yeon;Jang, Ji-Young;Kim, Soo-Hwaun;Kim, Yoon-Kwan;Lee, Hyo-Min;Shin, Dong-Chun;Lim, Young-Wook
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2010
  • The aims of this study were to develop the suitable "system software" in chemical ranking and scoring (CRS) for the food hazardous chemicals associated with environmental emission and to suggest the priority lists of food contamination by environmental-origined pollutants. Study materials were selected with reference to the priority pollutants list for environment and food management from domestic and foreign research and the number of study materials is 103 pollutants (18 heavy metals, 10 PBTs, 10 EDs, and 65 organic compounds). The Food-CRS-Korea system consisted of the environmental fate model via multimedia, transfer environment to food model, and health risk assessment by contaminated food intake. We have established that health risks of excess cancer risks, hazard quotients (HQs) by chronic toxicity and HQs by reproductive toxicity convert to score, respectively. The creditable scoring system was designed to consider uncertainty of quantitative risk assessment based on VOI (Value-Of-Information). The predictability of the Food-CRS-Korea model was evaluated by comparing the presumable values and the measured ones of the environmental media and foodstuffs. The priority lists based on emissions with background-level-correction are 15 pollutants such as arsenic, cadmium, and etc. The priority lists based on environmental monitoring date are 17 pollutants including DEHP, TCDD, and so on. Consequently, we suggested the priority lists of 13 pollutants by considering the several emission and exposure scenarios. According to the Food-CRS-Korea system, arsenics, cadmium, chromes, DEHP, leads, and nickels have high health risk rates and reliable grades.

Oily Fish Consumption Modifies the Association between CD36 rs6969989 Polymorphism and Lipid Profiles in Korean Women

  • Shin, Yoonjin;Kim, Yangha
    • Preventive Nutrition and Food Science
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.202-207
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    • 2016
  • The aim of this study was to investigate the association of CD36, a class B scavenger receptor, rs6969989 polymorphism with the serum lipid profiles in Korean women, together with their modulation by oily fish consumption. Subjects were participants from the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study (KoGES), which was initiated in 2001 as a large-scale. A total of 4,210 women aged 39 to 70 were included in this study. Data were collected using self-administered questionnaires, anthropometric measurements, and blood chemical analysis. Dietary intake was analyzed using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. The minor allele frequency for rs6969989 was found in 12% of this population. Homozygotes minor G allele at the rs6868989 exhibited significantly higher high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) concentrations (P-trend=0.043) and lower fasting glucose (P-trend=0.013) than major allele A carriers. The risk of low HDL-C was significantly lower in homozygotes for the G allele than the A allele carriers (P-trend=0.032). Gene-diet interaction effects between rs6969989 and oily fish intake were significantly associated with the risk of dyslipidemia (P-interaction=0.004). Subjects with homozygotes minor G allele and high oily fish intake generally had a lower risk of dyslipidemia than did those with major allele homozygotes and low oily fish intake. These findings supported that oily fish consumption may modulate the contributions of CD36 rs6969989 on genetic predisposition to the risk of dyslipidemia.

Quantitative Risk Assessment on a Decentralized Cryptocurrency Wallet with a Bayesian Network (베이즈 네트워크를 이용한 탈중앙화 암호화폐 지갑의 정량적 위험성 평가)

  • Yoo, Byeongcheol;Kim, Seungjoo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.637-659
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    • 2021
  • Since the creation of the first Bitcoin blockchain in 2009, the number of cryptocurrency users has steadily increased. However, the number of hacking attacks targeting assets stored in these users' cryptocurrency wallets is also increasing. Therefore, we evaluate the security of the wallets currently on the market to ensure that they are safe. We first conduct threat modeling to identify threats to cryptocurrency wallets and identify the security requirements. Second, based on the derived security requirements, we utilize attack trees and Bayesian network analysis to quantitatively measure the risks inherent in each wallet and compare them. According to the results, the average total risk in software wallets is 1.22 times greater than that in hardware wallets. In the comparison of different hardware wallets, we found that the total risk inherent to the Trezor One wallet, which has a general-purpose MCU, is 1.11 times greater than that of the Ledger Nano S wallet, which has a secure element. However, use of a secure element in a cryptocurrency wallet has been shown to be less effective at reducing risks.

Effect of Change of Reactor Coolant Injection Method on Risk at Loss of Coolant Accident due to Beam Tube Rupture (빔튜브파단 냉각재상실사고시 원자로냉각수 보충방법 변경이 리스크에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Yoon-Hwan;Lee, Byeonghee;Jang, Seung-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2022
  • A new method for injecting cooling water into the Korean research reactor (KRR) in the event of beam tube rupture is proposed in this paper. Moreover, the research evaluates the risk to the reactor core in terms of core damage frequency (CDF). The proposed method maintains the cooling water in the chimney at a certain level in the tank to prevent nuclear fuel damage solely by gravitational coolant feeding from the emergency water supply system (EWSS). This technique does not require sump recirculation operations described in the current procedure for resolving beam tube accidents. The reduction in the risk to the core in the event of beam tube rupture that can be achieved by the proposed change in the cooling water injection design is quantified as follows. 1) The total CDF of the KRR for the proposed design change is approximately 4.17E-06/yr, which is 8.4% lower than the CDF of the current design (4.55E-06/yr). 2) The CDF for beam tube rupture is 7.10E-08/yr, which represents an 84.1% decrease compared with that of the current design (4.49E-07/yr). In addition to this quantitative reduction in risk, the modified cooling water injection design maintains a supply of pure coolant to the EWSS tank. This means that the reactor does not require decontamination after an accident. Thermal hydraulic analysis proves that the water level in the reactor pool does not cause damage to the nuclear fuel cladding after beam tube rupture. This is because the amount of water in the chimney can be regulated by the EWSS function. The EWSS supplies emergency water to the reactor core to compensate for the evaporation of coolant in the core, thus allowing water to cover the fuel assemblies in the reactor core over a sufficient amount of time.

Revision of Feasibility Evaluation Guideline for Agricultural Infrastructure Improvement Project Using AHP Approach (AHP를 이용한 농업생산기반정비사업 타당성평가 개선방안)

  • Yun, Sung-wuk;Lee, Seok-joo;Lee, Han-sung;Chung, Won-ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2019
  • This study revises current feasibility evaluation guideline for agricultural infrastructure improvement project considering recent changes in social and economic environment in rural area. We use an AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) approach to consider qualitative evaluation items in policy enforcement and balanced regional development as well as quantitative items in current economic analysis in the process of feasibility evaluation and decision making. The criteria system is composed of three level hierarchy. In the first level which consists of economic analysis, policy analysis, and regional development analysis, economic analysis was ranked top with relative weight of 0.45 and regional development analysis the lowest with 0.22. In the second level which consists of three evaluation items under policy analysis, consistency in policy enforcement, risk factors, and special evaluation factors, consistency in policy enforcement was ranked top. Finally, 13 detailed evaluation items in the third level were surveyed and ranked by using a comprehensive criticality vector. The result shows that the three most important evaluation items are 'degree of underdevelopment', 'spill-over effect of regional economy' and 'consistency with related planning and policy direction'.

A basic study on control factor for the marine casualties of fishing vessel in Korea (우리나라 어선 해양사고 제어 요소에 관한 기초 연구)

  • Kim, Wook-Sung;Lee, Ju-Hee;Kim, Seok-Jae;Kim, Hyung-Suk;Lee, Yoo-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2013
  • This study is aimed to find a control factor for the marine casualty of fishing vessel by using the risk quantitative method of marine casualty, and sequentially timed event analysis for the reason finding. The result is that collision, sinking, and capsizing took high risk need to be strongly controlled. And the accident reason and control factors distinguished are as follows. The 82.2% of collided fishing vessels have negligence of look out as a immediate cause, while it was judged that underlying causes were the characteristics of vessels and fishing method, lack of suitable complement, fatigue, the prejudice or ignorance on steering and sailing rules. So the control factors are; firstly needs educational control measures and in terms of systemic control approach expand the range of the certificate of competency more smaller tonnage.

Statistics and Probability Distribution of Total Coliforms in Wastewater (하수에서의 대장균수 확률분포 특성 분석)

  • Jun, Sang Min;Song, Inhong;Jeong, Han Seok;Kang, Moon Seong;Park, Seung Woo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.105-111
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    • 2013
  • Probability distribution of microbes in wastewater is a crucial factor to be determined for microbial risk assessment associated with its reuse. The objective of this study was to investigate probability distribution of an indicator microorganism in wastewater. Daily total coliform counts measured from nationwide wastewater treatment plants in 2010 by the Ministry of Environment were used for statistical analysis. Basic statistics and probability distributions were estimated in the three different spatial scales using the MS Excel software and FARD2006 model. Overall, wastewater from manure and livestock treatment plants demonstrated greater median coliform counts than from sewage and village treatment plants. Generalized logistic (GLO) and 2-parameter Weibull (WBU2) appeared to be the two probability distributions that fitted best for total coliform numbers in wastewater. The study results of microbial statistics and probability distributions would provide useful data for quantitative assessment of microbial risk from agricultural wastewater reuse.

Systematic Review of Herbal Medicine Fumigation Treatment for Mycotic Vaginitis (Candida Vaginitis) (진균성 질염의 한약 훈증 치료에 대한 체계적 문헌 고찰)

  • Park, Kyung-Dug;Bae, Ju-Eun;Yoon, Young-Jin
    • The Journal of Korean Obstetrics and Gynecology
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.20-32
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to identify the effectiveness of fumigation treatment, provide a clinical basis for fumigation therapy, and develop treatment protocols through consideration of treatment methods and herbal medicines. Methods: We searched for randomized controlled clinical trials using fumigation treatment on mycotic vaginitis in 8 electronic databases such as EMBASE, Pubmed, and CNKI. The results of the studies were analyzed and the risk of bias was assessed by using Cochrane risk of bias tool. A meta-analysis was performed to reveal the effectiveness of fumigation compared to control treatments. Results: We finally selected 5 studies among 54 articles according to inclusion criteria and exclusion criteria. In all selected studies, herbal fumigation was more effective than any control treatment and all the studies were statistically significant. Conclusions: The study provides a basis for applying fumigation treatment to patients with mycotic vaginitis and helps developing a treatment protocol of caring patients of mycotic vaginitis. But the limitation of this study is that the number of studies included is small and quantitative synthesis of all results has not been achieved.

Acupoint Sticking Therapy for Endometriosis ; Systematic Review (자궁내막증의 혈위 첩부 치료에 대한 체계적 문헌고찰)

  • Bae, Ju-Eun;Park, Kyung-Dug;Yoon, Young-Jin
    • The Journal of Korean Obstetrics and Gynecology
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.162-173
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    • 2019
  • Objectives: The purpose of this review was to overview and evaluate the efficacy of acupoint sticking therapy for women with endometriosis. Methods: We searched for randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) using acupoint sticking therapy on endometriosis in 5 electronic databases such as EMBASE, Pubmed, and CAJ. The results of the studies were analyzed and the risk of bias was assessed by using Cochrane risk of bias tool. Results: Two RCTs were included for analysis. In the selected studies, Treatment group was higher effective cure rate than any control group. In one RCT, Acupoint sticking therapy was only used, but the other RCT was treated acupoint sticking therapy combined with acupuncture. So, Interventions in 2 studies were not same, Quantitative synthesis was impossible. Conclusion: The limitation of this review is that the number of studies included is small. However, our systematic review provides a basis for acupoint sticking therapy for endometriosis. Acupoint sticking therapy was considered as one of external treatment method for patients with endometriosis.