• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.25 no.9
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• pp.463-472
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• 2022

In this study, a microbial risk assessment was performed for the bacteria Vibrio parahaemolyticus, which causes a foodborne illness following the consumption of Jeotgal, a fermented seafood in South Korea. The assessment comprised of six stages: product, market, home, consumption, dose-response, and risk. The initial contamination level (IC) was calculated based on the prevalence of V. parahaemolyticus in 90 Jeotgal samples. The kinetic behavior of V. parahaemolyticus was described using predictive models. The data on transportation conditions from manufacturer to market and home were collected through personal communication and from previous studies. Data for the Jeotgal consumption status were obtained, and an appropriate probability distribution was established. The simulation models responding to the scenario were analyzed using the @RISK program. The IC of V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using beta distribution [Beta (1, 91)]. The cell counts during transportation were estimated using Weibull and polynomial models [δ = 1 / (0.0718 - 0.0097 × T + 0.0005 × T²)], while the probability distributions for time and temperature were estimated using Pert, Weibull, Uniform, and LogLogistic distributions. Daily average consumption amounts were assessed using the Pareto distribution [0.60284,1.32,Risk Truncate(0,155)]. The results indicated that the risk of V. parahaemolyticus infection through Jeotgal consumption is low in South Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2023.11a
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• pp.265-266
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• 2023

Recently, many disasters have occurred due to poor management of construction site. In addition, as legal regulations on safety management at construction sites are strengthened, its importance is being further emphasized. In relation to smart safety management technology, a study was introduced to build an analysis model through various safety-related data collected within construction companies. This model derives quantitative disaster risk about the site level through information related to past disasters and near misses. However, construction work is performed separately by work group of each partner company. There is a limitation in that individual workers cannot directly experience this analysis information. In this study, we propose a method to derive the safety disaster risk of individual work units from disaster risk of the site level. We expect that this study to be helpful for smart safety management technology of construction sites.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.02a
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• pp.371-375
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• 2007

Due to the benefit of QRA(Quantitative Risk Analysis) method, we can evaluate the risk, and it helps us to make our safe. We also depend to some of correlation equations to assess the jet fire at high pressurized transmission line. However, we can evaluate the risk within limitations. After comparing the current model to investigation report of natural gas transmission line accident at EL-Paso in U.S., this study concludes that more research and study are required because currently developed model cannot expect factors of the fire risk such as flame configuration.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.1-6
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• 2022

Purpose: To overcome the question that depends too much on expert's subjective judgment in traditional risk identification, this paper structure the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model of the risk identification of project, to research the risk identification of the project. Research design, data and methodology: This paper constructs the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model. Through iterative algorithm of AHP analysis, make sure the important degree of the sub project in risk analysis, then combine expert's subjective judgment with objective quantitative analysis, and distinguish the risk through identification models. Meanwhile, the concrete method of multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is probed. Using the index weights to analyse project risks is discussed in detail. Results: The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm is proposed in the paper, at first the method of fuzzy sets core is used to optimize the fuzzy relation matrix. It improves the capability of the algorithm. Then, the method of entropy weight is used to establish weight vectors. This makes the computation process fair and open. And thereby, the uncertainty of the evaluation result brought by the subjectivity can be avoided effectively and the evaluation result becomes more objective and more reasonable. Conclusions: In this paper, we use an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate a railroad engineering project risk. It can give a more reliable result for a reference of decision making.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.95-101
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• 2013

This study tried to develop a basis for quantitative index of working postures associated with WMSDs(Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorders) that could overcome realistic restriction during application of typical checklists for WMSDs evaluation. The baseline data for this study was obtained from automobile manufacturing company(A total of 603 jobs were observed). Specifically, data for shoulder postures was analyzed to have a better and more objective method in terms of job relevance than typical methods such as OWAS, RULA, and REBA. Major statistical tools were Clustering, Logistic regression and so on. The main results in this study could be summarized as follows; 1) The relationships between working postures and WMSDs symptoms at shoulder were statistically significant based on the results from logistic regression. 2) Based on clustering analysis, three levels for WMSDs risk at shoulder were produced for both flexion and abduction were statistically significant. Specific results were as follows; Shoulder flexion: low risk(< $37.7^{\circ}$), medium risk($37.7^{\circ}{\sim}70.0^{\circ}$), high risk(> $70.0^{\circ}$) Shoulder abduction: low risk(< $26.5^{\circ}$), medium risk($26.5^{\circ}{\sim}56.8^{\circ}$), high risk(> $56.8^{\circ}$). 3) The sensitivities on risk levels of shoulder flexion and abduction were 64.0% and 20.6% respectively while the specificities on risk levels of shoulder flexion and abduction were 99.1% and 99.3% respectively. The results showed that the data associated with shoulder postures in this study could provide a good basis for job evaluation of WMSDs at shoulder. Specifically, this evaluation methodology was different from the methods usually used at WMSDs study since it tried to be based on direct job relevance from real working situation. Further evaluation for other body parts as well as shoulder would provide more stability and reliability in WMSDs evaluation study.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.579-592
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• 2017

This study assessed the quantitative microbial risk of non-enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC). For hazard identification, hazards of non-EHEC E. coli in natural and processed cheeses were identified by research papers. Regarding exposure assessment, non-EHEC E. coli cell counts in cheese were enumerated, and the developed predictive models were used to describe the fates of non-EHEC E. coli strains in cheese during distribution and storage. In addition, data on the amounts and frequency of cheese consumption were collected from the research report of the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety. For hazard characterization, a doseresponse model for non-EHEC E. coli was used. Using the collected data, simulation models were constructed, using software @RISK to calculate the risk of illness per person per day. Non-EHEC E. coli cells in natural- (n=90) and processed-cheese samples (n=308) from factories and markets were not detected. Thus, we estimated the initial levels of contamination by Uniform distribution ${\times}$ Beta distribution, and the levels were -2.35 and -2.73 Log CFU/g for natural and processed cheese, respectively. The proposed predictive models described properly the fates of non-EHEC E. coli during distribution and storage of cheese. For hazard characterization, we used the Beta-Poisson model (${\alpha}=2.21{\times}10^{-1}$, $N_{50}=6.85{\times}10^7$). The results of risk characterization for non-EHEC E. coli in natural and processed cheese were $1.36{\times}10^{-7}$ and $2.12{\times}10^{-10}$ (the mean probability of illness per person per day), respectively. These results indicate that the risk of non-EHEC E. coli foodborne illness can be considered low in present conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.10 no.3 s.32
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• pp.48-53
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• 2006

In case of fire and explosion which resulted from LP gas release of LPG vessel retail store, the populated area such as apartment complex is supposed to be damaged either partially or totally. To estimate the damage of LP gas explosion, we conducted quantitative risk analysis procedure as has been recommended by AIChE/CCPS. For incident scenario selection, event tree analysis was proposed. TNT equivalent method, SAFER Trace v.8.0 and probit model were also used for consequence analysis. The various methods and analyses which were performed in this study are presented with the effect zones in the layout.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.79-84
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• 2014

Human error is one of the major contributors to the accidents. A lot of risk assessment techniques have been developed for prevention of accidents. Nevertheless, most of them were interested in physical factors, because quantitative evaluation of human errors was difficult quantitatively. According to lack of risk assessment techniques about human errors, most of industrial risk assessment for human errors were based on data of accident analysis. In order to develop an effective countermeasure to reduce the risk caused by human errors, a systematic analysis is needed. Generally, risk assessment system is composed of 5 step(classification of work activity, identification of hazards, risk estimation, evaluation and improvement). This study aimed to develop a risk identification technique for human errors that could mainly be applied to industrial fields. In this study, Ergo-HAZOP and Comprehensive Human Error Analysis Technique were used for developing the risk identification technique. In the proposed risk identification technique, Ergo-HAZOP was used for broad-brush risk identification. More critical risks were analysed by Comprehensive Human Error Analysis Technique. In order to verify applicability, the proposed risk identification technique was applied to the work of pile head cutting. As a consequence, extensive hazards were identified and fundamental countermeasures were established. It is expected that much attention would be paid to prevent accidents by human error in industrial fields since safety personnel can easily fint out hazards of human factors if utilizing the proposed risk identification technique.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• v.65 no.5
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• pp.1024-1039
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• 2023

In this study, we performed a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) of Salmonella through intake of egg consumption after cooking (dry-heat, moist-heat, and raw consumption). Egg samples (n = 201) from retail markets were analyzed for the presence of Salmonella. In addition, temperature and time were investigated during egg transit, storage, and display. A predictive model was developed to characterize the kinetic behavior of Salmonella in eggs, and data on egg consumption and frequency were collected. Eventually, the data was simulated to estimate egg-related foodborne illnesses. Salmonella was not found in any of the 201 egg samples. Thus, the estimated initial contamination level was -4.0 Log CFU/g. With R² values of 0.898 and 0.922, the constructed predictive models were adequate for describing the fate of Salmonella in eggs throughout distribution and storage. Eggs were consumed raw (1.5%, 39.2 g), dry-heated (57.5%, 43.0 g), and moist-heated (41%, 36.1 g). The probability of foodborne Salmonella illness from the consumption of cooked eggs was evaluated to be 6.8×10^-10. Additionally, the probability of foodborne illness not applied cooking methods was 1.9×10^-7, indicating that Salmonella can be reduced by cooking. Therefore, the risk of Salmonella infection through consumption of eggs after cooking might be low in S. Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.369-389
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• 2011

Changes in ecosystem risks were evaluated using the ecosystem-based fisheries assessment (EBFA) approach of Zhang et al. (2009, 2010) and the comprehensive ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) plan was made for the southern sea of Korea in this study. The risk assessment of the southern sea ecosystem was conducted by establishing ecosystem management objectives and by estimating risk scores (RS) for indicators. To conduct this analysis a number of indicators and their reference points for assessing these risk scores were developed in this study. The number of indicators in the risk analysis was 28 for the quantitative tier 1 analysis and 30 for the qualitative tier 2 analysis. The objective risk index (ORI), species risk index (SRI) and fisheries risk index (FRI) were calculated from the risk scores. Comparing the past (1988) and the current (2008) status of fisheries resources, management implications were discussed. The fishery risk index (FRI) of large purse seine fishery in the southern sea of Korea decreased substantially from 0.972 in 1988 to 0.883 in 2008, and improvement in the management of fisheries operated in the southern sea of Korea.