• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative risk

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A Study on the Safety Enhancement of Chemical Plants Using Risk Based Inspection Method (Risk Based Inspection 기법을 이용한 화학공장의 안전성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • 노용해;유진환;서재민;임차순;고재욱
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2002
  • The RBI technique proposed by API is composed of three steps. The qualitative RBI method can be used for the purpose of screening the components with high risk. And the quantitative RBI method employs complex risk evaluation model for predicting component risk in a quantitative manner. The inspection program can be optimized based on the results obtained by these RBI technique. The forementioned RBI technique has been applied to a common hydrodesulfurizer unit and the technique is critically evaluated for studying its benefits and limitations, which is the main issue of this thesis. It's conducted that the RBI method can provide a method for defining and measuring the component risk, and also provide a powerful tool for managing many of the important elements of a process plant.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Wastewater Reuse for Irrigation in Paddy Field (하수처리수의 논 관개용수 재이용을 위한 미생물 위해성 평가)

  • Yoon Chun-Gyeong;Han Jung-Yoon;Jung Kwang-Wook;Jang Jae-Ho
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 2006
  • The reuse of wastewater for agricultural irrigation may cause human health risk as a result of exposure to pathogens. This study conducted the quantitative microbial risk assessment in paddy field irrigated with treated wastewater. Six treatments were used to irrigate the paddy field from Year 2003 to Year 2005: biofilter-effluent, UV-disinfected water (6, 16, 40, 68 $mW s cm^{-2}$), pond-treated water, wetland-treated water, conventional irrigation water and tap water. Total coliforms, fecal coliforms and E. coli were monitored during rice growing period. Beta - Poisson model was employed to calculate the microbial risk of pathogens ingestion that may occur to farmers and neighbor children. Uncertainty of risk was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. In this study, the microbial risk was higher during initial cultivation (end of May$\sim$June), and it decreased with time. Biofilter effluent (secondary effluent) irrigation showed higher risk values than others (>$10^{-4}$) and irrigation with UV-disinfected water has the lowest risk range ($10^{-6}{\sim}10^{-5}$). The risk value estimated in 2005 was lower than risk value in 2003 and 2004, it is likely due to clean tap water irrigation in initial transplanting stage. It is suggested that irrigation with UV-disinfected water and pond-treated water would reduce the microbial risk associated with wastewater irrigation in paddy field. In addition, the first irrigation water quality significantly affected the subsequent microbial risk.

A Study on Quantitative Risk Assessment Method and Risk Reduction Measures for Rail Hazardous Material Transportation (철도위험물수송에 관한 위험도 정량화방안 및 경감대책 연구)

  • Lee, Sang Gon;Cho, Woncheol;Lee, Tae Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.1 no.3
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2008
  • The object of this study is to develop a tool for quantifying risks related to the rail transportation of hazardous commodities and to present mitigation measures. In this study, the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is used as a risk analysis tool. Based on the previous explosion history (Iri explosion) and consideration of its high risk, Iksan-si is selected as a model city. The result, expressed as average individual risk for exposed people with various distance, indicates that the model city is considered to be safe according to the nuclear energy standard. Also, the mitigation measures are provided since Societal risk of Iksan-si is set within ALARP. Risk reduction measures include rail car design, rail transportation operation, demage spread control as well as derail prevention and alternative routes for reducing accident frequencies. Finally, it is expected to achieve high level of public safety by appling the risk reduction measures.

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A Study on Implementation of Risk Based Inspection Procedures to a Petrochemical Plant (RBI 절차의 석유화학 플랜트 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jung-Soo;Shim, Sang-Hoon;Kim, Ji-Yoon;Yoon, Kee-Bong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.416-423
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    • 2003
  • During the last ten years, the need has been increased for reducing maintenance cost for aged equipments and ensuring safety, efficiency and profitability of petrochemical and refinery plants. RBI (Risk Based Inspection) methodology is one of the most promising technologies satisfying the need in the field of integrity management. In this study, a user-friendly software, realRBl for RBI based on the API 581 code was developed. This software has modules for evaluating qualitative and semi-quantitative risk level, analyzing quantitative risks using the potential consequences of a failure of the pressure boundary, and assessing the likelihood of failure. A quantitative analysis was performed for 16 columns in a domestic NCC (Naphtha Cracking Center) plant whose operating time reaches about 12 years. Each column was considered as two equipment parts by dividing into top and bottom. Generic column failure frequencies were adjusted based on likelihood data. After determining release rate, release duration and release mass for each failure scenario, flammable/explosive and toxic consequences were assessed. Current risks for 32 equipment parts were evaluated and risk based prioritization were determined as a final result.

Market Expansion Strategies for Small or Medium-sized Construction Companies by Developing Quantitative Risk Assessment Model

  • Yoo, Jinhyuk;Koh, Seungyoon;Seo, Induck;Cha, Heesung
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.742-743
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    • 2015
  • Korean construction industry has developed with national economy growth for a couple of decades. However, because of slump of real estate, the domestic construction industry was intimidated. In this situation, many construction company has no choice but to go abroad to find construction projects. However, almost small or medium-sized construction companies are very hard to operate their business because they have small funding ability and weak labor power. Therefore, this study aims to propose an assessment tool through analyzing risk factors of overseas construction projects for small or medium-sized companies by examining preceding research and interviewing industry experts. Weights of the risk factors are determined through the surveys of the industry practitioners. All of the data is configured into the assessment tool and this converts the quantitative information which leads to the optimal of strategies choice. This paper provides a quantitative measurement of possible performance and detailed assessment of each itemized risk factors. This assessment tool is qualified for industry experts so that it can safely be applied to the future projects. Ultimately, many small or medium sized construction companies will benefit from the tool proposed in this study to examine the potential of the overseas market expansion.

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Two-layer Investment Decision-making Using Knowledge about Investor′s Risk-preference: Model and Empirical Testing.

  • Won, Chaehwan;Kim, Chulsoo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.25-41
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    • 2004
  • There have been many studies to build a model that can help investors construct optimal portfolio. Most of the previous models, however, are based upon the path-breaking Markowitz model (1959) which is a quantitative model. One of the most important problems with that kind of quantitative model is that, in reality, most of the investors use not only quantitative, but also qualitative information when they select their optimal portfolio. Since collecting both types of information from the markets are time consuming and expensive, making a set of target assets smaller, without suffering heavy loss in the rate of return, would attract investors. To extract only desired assets among all available assets, we need knowledge that identifies investors' preference for the risk of the assets. This study suggests two-layer decision-making rules capable of identifying an investor's risk preference and an architecture applying them to a quantitative portfolio model based on risk and expected return. Our knowledge-based portfolio system is to build an investor's preference-oriented portfolio. The empirical tests using the data from Korean capital markets show the results that our model contributes significantly to the construction of a better portfolio in the perspective of an investor's benefit/cost ratio than that produced by the existing portfolio models.

Applicability of FDS for the Fire Hazard Analysis of the Fire Zone at Nuclear Power Plants (원전 화재방호구역의 화재위험 분석을 위한 FDS 적용성)

  • Jee, Moon-Hak;Lee, Byung-Kon
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4 s.64
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    • pp.13-18
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    • 2006
  • The fire protection regulation for the nuclear power plants is based on the qualitative fire hazard assessment and the quantitative fire risk analysis, and the fire risk is managed by the fire protection plan with the appropriate balance among the fire prevention, fire suppression and the minimization of the fire effect. In these days, the zone model or the field model is generally used for the detail evaluation for the fire risk. At this paper, with consideration of the present trend, we evaluate whether the quantitative fire risk analysis and the assessment of fire result for fire areas at nuclear power plants can be possible by use of Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) that is the state-of-the-art fire modeling tool. Consequently, it is expected that the quantitative fire risk evaluation propelled by the fire modeling can be available as an applicable tool to improve the core damage frequency as well as the quantitative fire risk analysis.

Quantitative Fire Risk Assesment for the Subway Platform Types (지하철 승강장 형식에 따른 정량적 화재 위험성 평가)

  • Rie, Dong-Ho;Kim, Ha-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.21 no.6 s.78
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2006
  • Subway platform is divided into Side-platform type and Center-platform type. In this study does quantitative fire risk assesment of subway platform types in numerical analysis by using CFD model. From the result of this study, 1) All exhaust mode was low-end result it seems most fire risk at Side-platform station. 2) All exhaust mode was low-end result it seems most fire risk at Center-Platform station. 3) When comparing same type exhaust mode of Side-platform and Center-platform that last thing was visible $9.1{\sim}72.34%$ low-end fire risk. Center-platform is more opera-tive than Side-platform that reduce fire risk when that was same dimension and external environment. Designer look upon a fire characteristic of subway platform types when he make smoke control air volume and platform area design.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Techniques for the Risk Analysis of Construction Projects (건설공사의 위험도분석을 위한 확률적 위험도 평가)

  • 조효남;임종권;박영빈
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1997.04a
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, systematic and comprehensive approaches are suggested for the application of quantitative PRA techniques especially for those risk events that cannot be easily evaluated quantitatively In addition, dominant risk events are identified based on their occurrence frequency assessed by both actual survey of construction site conditions and the statistical data related with the probable accidents. Practical FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) models are used for the assessment of the identified risks. When the risk events are lack of statistical data, appropriate Bayesian models incorporating engineering judgement and test results are also introduced in this paper. Moreover, a fuzzy probability technique is used for the quantitative risk assessment of those risk components which are difficult to evaluate quantitatively.

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Cost-Benefit Analysis for Safety Management Cost using Quantitative Risk Analysis (정량적 위험성 평가에 의한 안전관리 투자의 비용-편익분석)

  • 장서일;조지훈;김태옥
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2002
  • The quantitative evaluation method of the safety management cost was suggested to prevent a gas accident as a major industrial accident. In a gas governor station, process risk assessments such as the fault tree analysis(FTA) and the consequence analysis were performed. Based on process risk assessments, potential accident costs were estimated and the cost-benefit analysis(CBA) was performed. From the cost-benefit analysis for five classification items of safety management cost, the order of the cost/benefit ratio was estimated.