• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제33권3호
• /
• pp.339-348
• /
• 2007

Since the 1980s, the marketing paradigm has rapidly changed from product-driven marketing to customer-driven marketing. Recently, due to an increase in the amount of information, customer-differentiation strategies have been emphasized more than product-differentiation strategies. This paper suggests a methodology for new customer segmentation and purchase forecasting using changes in customer behavior. This methodology includes a segmentation method for new customers using existing customer's characteristics and a purchase-forecasting system using the purchase-behavior patterns of existing customers. The proposed methodology not only provides differential services from a segmentation system but also recommends differential items from the purchase forecasting system for new and existing customers.

• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제14권1호
• /
• pp.103-117
• /
• 1988

Replacement demand plays an important role to forecast the total demand of durable goods, while most of the diffusion models deal with only adoption data, namely initial purchase demand. This paper presents replacement demand forecasting models incorporating repurchase rate, multi-ownership, and dynamic product life to complement the existing diffusion models. The performance of replacement demand forecasting models are analyzed and practical guidelines for the application of the models are suggested when life distribution data or adoption data are not available.

• 경영과학
• /
• 제27권2호
• /
• pp.31-44
• /
• 2010

It is very important to forecast demand and determine the optimal procurement quantities of spare parts. The Army has been forecasting demand not with actual usage of spare parts but with request quantities. However, the Army could not purchase all of forecasted demand quantities due to budget limit. Thus, the procurement quantities depend on the item managers' intuition and their meetings. The system currently used contains many problems. This study suggests a new determination procedure; 1) forecasting demand method based on actual usage, 2) determining procurement method through LP model with budge and other constraints. The newly determined quantities of spare parts is verified in the simulation model, that represents the real operational and maintenance situation to measure the operational availability. The result shows that the new forecasting method with actual usage improves the operational availability. Also, the procurement determination with LP improves the operational availability as well.

• 기술혁신연구
• /
• 제13권1호
• /
• pp.1-24
• /
• 2005

This paper applies a prelaunch forecasting model to the Home-Networking (HN) market of South Korea. The HN market of Korea is categorized into two distinctive markets. One HN market consists of new apartments in which builders install HN and the other HN market consists of existing houses in which residents purchase HN Among these markets, this paper focuses on existing houses as capturing consumers' choice. To forecast sales of HN for existing houses, we use a conjoint model based on our survey data of consumer preferences. By incorporating various indicators of HN technologies into our conjoint model, we also forecast diffusion of HN system embodied in PLC or Wireless Lan. We call this model Choice-Based Diffusion Model. In addition, based on the simulation experiments, we also identify important factors that affect the demands of HN system.

• 한국게임학회 논문지
• /
• 제4권1호
• /
• pp.34-40
• /
• 2004

본 연구는 새로운 게임제품을 시장에 출시하는 기업들의 수요예측에 도움을 줄 수 있는 Bass 모델을 소개하고 이의 타당성을 보여주고자 한다. 마케팅 분야에서 타당성을 인정받고 있는 Bass 모델을 게임제품의 수요예측에 적용해 본 결과 Bass모델을 응용한 게임제품의 수요예측은 아케이드 게임, 온라인 게임의 경우 수요예측에 있어서 정확도가 높은 것으로 분석되었다.

• 지능정보연구
• /
• 제8권2호
• /
• pp.159-175
• /
• 2002

웹 마이닝은 e-Business 환경하에서 존재하는 대량의 웹 데이터에 데이터 마이닝 기법을 적용하여 유용하고 이해 가능한 정보를 추출해내는 과정을 의미하는데, 성공적인 e-Business전개를 위한 핵심적인 기술이다. 본 논문은 인공지능 기법에 기반한 웹마이닝 기술을 활용하여 e-Business상의 온라인 고객의 특성을 분석할 수 있는 data visualization system과 구매 판매 예측시스템의 효과적인 구조와 핵심적인 분석절차를 제안하였다.

• 지능정보연구
• /
• 제16권4호
• /
• pp.213-225
• /
• 2010

본 연구에서는 기업의 마케팅 프로모션에 따른 반응고객의 구매액 예측을 위한 방법을 제시하고 SVR의 효과적인 학습방법을 제시하였다. 프로모션에 의한 고객의 구매액을 기반으로 고객을 5등급으로 등급화하고 각 등급 내에서 SVR을 적용하여 고객의 구매액을 예측하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 예측된 고객의 등급 내에서 고객 구매액을 예측하는 분리데이터 학습법이 프로모션에 반응한 모든 고객을 대상으로 구매액을 예측하는 전체데이터 학습법보다 높은 예측성과를 보여주었다. 일반적으로 세분화된 고객집단을 하나의 집단으로 보고 동일한 마케팅 전략을 제시하나 본 연구를 통해 구매액에 따라 등급화 된 고객의 등급 내에서 다시 고객의 거래 구매액을 예측하여 동일한 집단 내에서도 차별화된 마케팅 전략을 제시할 수 있는 기반을 제시하였다. 즉 동일한 등급에서도 고객 구매액에 따라 고객의 우선순위를 정할 수 있으며, 이는 마케팅 담당자가 프로모션을 제시할 고객을 선정할 때 유용한 정보로 활용될 수 있다.

• 경영과학
• /
• 제32권4호
• /
• pp.209-236
• /
• 2015

This study focuses on the network externality effect related to the platform supplementary services. This study designs the network externality of platform and suggests a supplementary service adoption model. Additionally, this study examines the moderating effect of demand forecasting for the platform. Using AMOS program, a structural equation modeling has been used to analyze the research model. The findings can be summarized as follows : First, we find out the structural relationship among the factors (usefulness, perceived value, purchase intention) affecting adoption of the supplementary services. Second, positive perception of platform flow can promote the platform interaction. Third, positive perception of present users based on platform can arouse friendly evaluation in the platform interaction. Fourth, loyalty to the platform brand can improve the perceived usefulness of supplementary services, but cannot lessen the resistance to supplementary service cost. In addition, the moderating effects of demand forecasting for the platform in the path leading from platform factors to supplementary service factors were identified. In conclusion, traditional brand strategy may be effective in platform marketing activities but the extent of performance in the strategy can appear to be quite different. Therefore, taking the relationship with network externality into consideration should be involved in the marketing strategy in platform.

• 농업과학연구
• /
• 제47권4호
• /
• pp.769-782
• /
• 2020

Interest in fruit and vegetables has increased due to changes in consumer consumption patterns, socioeconomic status, and family structure. This study determined the factors influencing the demand for fruit and vegetables (strawberries, paprika, tomatoes and cherry tomatoes) using a panel of Rural Development Administration household-level purchases from 2010 to 2018 and compared the ability to the prediction performance. An artificial neural network model was constructed, linking household characteristics with final food expenditure. Comparing the analysis results of the artificial neural network with the results of the panel model showed that the artificial neural network accurately predicted the pattern of the consumer panel data rather than the fixed effect model. In addition, the prediction for strawberries was found to be heavily affected by the number of families, retail places and income, while the prediction for paprika was largely affected by income, age and retail conditions. In the case of the prediction for tomatoes, they were greatly affected by age, income and place of purchase, and the prediction for cherry tomatoes was found to be affected by age, number of families and retail conditions. Therefore, a more accurate analysis of the consumer consumption pattern was possible through the artificial neural network model, which could be used as basic data for decision making.

• 한국경영과학회지
• /
• 제30권4호
• /
• pp.117-130
• /
• 2005

It is effective and desirable for a proper customer relationship management or marketing to focus on the specific customers rather than a number of non specific customers. This study forecasts the prospective purchasers with high probability to purchase a specific product. Artificial Neural Network( ANN) can classily the characteristics of the prospective purchasers but ANN has a limitation in comprehending of outputs. ANN is integrated into IRANN with IR of decision tree program C5.0 to comprehend and analyze the outputs of ANN. We compare and analyze the accuracy of ANN, IR, and IRANN each other.