• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제20권1호
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• pp.85-99
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• 1995

Increasingly, risk analysis is becoming important ingredients in achieving the successful implementation and application in the area of the project management. The project management system is designed to manage or control the project resources on a given activity within time, cost and performance so called TPPM (Total Productive Project Management). In this research, a risk analysis model misproposed to identify potential problem areas, quantify the risks, and generated the chice of the action that can be taken to reduce the risk. In addition two analysis models are proposed : 1) risk factor model and 2) network simulation model using VERT (Venture Evaluation and Review Technique ). The objective of the remodels is to estimate the schedule, cost performance risks. These proposed quantitative models for project risk analysis are proving its value for the project managers who need to assess the risk of changes in cost, schedule, or performance. The proposed models will be used in the area of project selection, evaluation and the allocation of project resources.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제14권23호
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• pp.57-64
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• 1991

The preliminary, advanced and final evaluation of R&D project is essential in order to reduce loss of resource and opportunity and to minimize uncertainty resulting from optimal selection and efficient progress of R&D project. This thesis examined characteristics of deterministic evaluation, economical evaluation, and OR-approach evaluation as theoretical methodology of evaluation of R&D project applicable to food industry in Korea by using scoring method, one of deterministic evaluations. In addition, this thesis divided the evaluation factors for preliminary evaluation of R&D project into 5 groups and 30 factors on basis of the environment of domestic companies and set up the standard of each evaluation factors and contains marking-selecting way. But, generally, the evaluation model by this thesis, as the conditions of the business company environment are different to each other, contents to be set up evaluation factors, evaluation standard and decision method conforming to each the environment of the business companies with referring to as one standard of evaluation project for selecting R&D project.

• 융합경영연구
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2022

Purpose: To overcome the question that depends too much on expert's subjective judgment in traditional risk identification, this paper structure the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model of the risk identification of project, to research the risk identification of the project. Research design, data and methodology: This paper constructs the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model. Through iterative algorithm of AHP analysis, make sure the important degree of the sub project in risk analysis, then combine expert's subjective judgment with objective quantitative analysis, and distinguish the risk through identification models. Meanwhile, the concrete method of multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is probed. Using the index weights to analyse project risks is discussed in detail. Results: The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm is proposed in the paper, at first the method of fuzzy sets core is used to optimize the fuzzy relation matrix. It improves the capability of the algorithm. Then, the method of entropy weight is used to establish weight vectors. This makes the computation process fair and open. And thereby, the uncertainty of the evaluation result brought by the subjectivity can be avoided effectively and the evaluation result becomes more objective and more reasonable. Conclusions: In this paper, we use an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate a railroad engineering project risk. It can give a more reliable result for a reference of decision making.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.171-199
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• 2023

본 연구는 K연구원의 상향식 R&D과제기획 차원의 신규 연구기획과제 선정평가를 위한 평가도구 개발에 목적을 두고 진행하였다. 이를 위해 CIPP모형과 연구기획평가를 위한 선정평가 및 평가지표에 관한 선행연구를 중심으로 R&D과제기획 선정평가 항목과 문항을 개발 한 후, 2회에 걸친 델파이 조사를 실시하였다. 개발된 평가도구는 13명의 전문가를 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하여 내용타당도, 합의도 및 수렴도를 검증하였다. 최종 선정된 R&D과제기획 선정평가 도구는 8개 항목에 총 21개 문항으로, 상황평가 5 문항, 투입평가 2문항, 과정평가 8문항, 산출평가 6문항으로 구성되었다. 개발된 평가 도구는 상향식 기획 과정상의 문제점을 해소하고 연구자들의 기획역량을 제고하는 데 기여할 것이다. 또한, 선정평가 시 평가에 대한 일관성과 효율성 제고에 기여할 것이다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.284-291
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• 2022

Historical data from comparable projects can serve as benchmarking data for an ongoing project's planning during the project scoping phase. As project owners typically store substantial amounts of data generated throughout project life cycles in digitized databases, they can capture appropriate data to support various project planning activities by accessing digital databases. One of the most important work tasks in this process is identifying one or more past projects comparable to a new project. The uniqueness and complexity of construction projects along with unorganized data, impede the reliable identification of comparable past projects. A project scope document provides the preliminary overview of a project in terms of the extent of the project and project requirements. However, narratives and free-formatted descriptions of project scopes are a significant and time-consuming barrier if a human needs to review them and determine similar projects. This study proposes an Artificial Intelligence-driven model for analyzing project scope descriptions and evaluating project similarity using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. The proposed algorithm can intelligently a) extract major work activities from unstructured descriptions held in a database and b) quantify similarities by considering the semantic features of texts representing work activities. The proposed model enhances historical comparable project identification by systematically analyzing project scopes.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2008년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.905-908
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• 2008

시행 4년차를 맞이하는 BTL사업은 평가부문에서 일본의 PFI사업을 벤치마킹하여 도입되었는데 우선협상대상자 선정평가단계를 살펴보면, 기술적 요소는 시설사업별로 수정 보완되어 고시되는 반면 가격요소 부문은 여전히 최저가 낙찰제가 시행되고 있다. BTL사업의 가격부문은 임대형 사업이라는 특성을 감안해 볼 때 우선협상대상자 선정 방식에 대한 문제 제기와 더불어 향후 운영관리기간 동안 사업비 운용에 대한 우려가 높아지고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 계층분석기법을 활용하여 사업초기 우선협상 대상자 선정을 위한 우선순위 결정방법과 사업수행과정에서의 BTL사업비용 타당성 평가를 위한 평가모형을 정립하고자 한다. BTL사업 참여 경험이 있는 전문가 집단을 대상으로 평가 요소를 추출하였으며 평가요소 Levelling과 항목에 대한 Grouping을 통하여 3단계 평가모형을 정립하였다 ; 1단계 - LCC분석과 정부지급금 산출, 2단계 - 1단계 요인에 더하여 각각 분석기준 및 방법의 적정성, RFP요구조건 반영, 비용관련계획의 적정성, 산출비용의 적정성, 3단계 - 각각의 2단계 요인에 대하여 3개-5개의 요소.

• 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건설관리학회 2007년도 정기학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.41-47
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• 2007

최적 발주방식을 선정하는 것은 해당 사업의 성공적 수행을 위한 것이며, 이는 곧 사업의 목표를 달성시키는 것이다. 또한 사업특성에 적합한 발주방식의 선정과 사업의 성과는 밀접한 연관성을 갖는다. 이러한 취지에서 재정경제부는 2007년 10월 국가계약법시행령 개정을 통해 "기술제안입찰", "설계공모${\cdot}$기술제안입찰"이라는 발주제도를 새로이 도입하였다. 다양해진 발주제도를 효율적으로 운영할 수 있도록 하기 위해 본 연구는 공공건설사업의 특성을 정량적, 정성적으로 평가하여 해당 사업에 가장 적합한 발주방식을 선정할 수 있도록 하는 발주방식 선정모델을 제시하였다. 그리고 발주방식 성과평가 모델을 함께 제시하여 발주방식 선정 및 운영의 결과를 후속 사업의 피드백 할 수 있도록 하였다. 이와 같은 표준적인 모델은 공공발주기관의 의사결정을 지원하는 도구로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 4th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Organized by the University of New South Wales
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• pp.534-541
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• 2011

Risk evaluation approaches for bidding on international construction projects are typically partitioned into three stages: country selection, project classification, and bid-cost evaluation. However, previous studies are frequently under attack in that they have several crucial limitations: 1) a dearth of studies about country selection risk tailored for the overseas construction market at a corporate level; 2) no consideration of uncertainties for input variable per se; 3) less probabilistic approaches in estimating a range of cost variance; and 4) less inclusion of covariance impacts. This study thus suggests a three-staged risk evaluation model to resolve these inherent problems. In the first stage, a country portfolio model that maximizes the expected construction market growth rate and profit rate while decreasing market uncertainty is formulated using multi-objective genetic analysis. Following this, probabilistic approaches for screening bad projects are suggested through applying various data mining methods such as discriminant logistic regression, neural network, C5.0, and support vector machine. For the last stage, the cost overrun prediction model is simulated for determining a reasonable bid cost, while considering non-parametric distribution, effects of systematic risks, and the firm's specific capability accrued in a given country. Through the three consecutive models, this study verifies that international construction risk can be allocated, reduced, and projected to some degree, thereby contributing to sustaining stable profits and revenues in both the short-term and the long-term perspective.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.22-31
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• 2010

In R&D project evaluation, we consider the technical couple. And we set technology modular alternatives, after evaluating technical group based on technical couple. So we solve the problem extracted from existing research of R&D project evaluation. We use Conjoint Analysis(CA) for this research. CA is usually used for confirming customers' preference. However we use it for researchers' preference in the side of technology. This research is followed by the next 4 steps. (1) Hierarchical model of goal technology (2) Composition model of modular alternatives (3) Evaluation model of modular alternatives (4) Setting model of technology modular alternatives.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 1th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.347-352
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• 2005

This paper presents an evaluation model for the performance of Value Engineering Study (VES) for construction projects. The proposed model consists of 6 PEGs and 32 PEIs. The expertise of the proposed model was collected from VE experts in Taiwan using two-phase questionnaire survey. One real-life VES of construction projects was used to demonstrate how the proposed model works. The proposed model not only can be used by project owners to appraise the performance of VES team but also be used by the VES teams to conduct self-diagnosis, improvement, and motivation for achieving better performance. Additionally, the proposed model is capable of: (1) clarifying the defects of VES and avoiding committing same mistakes, (2) assisting inexperience team members to implement VES and catch the critical issues of a VES.