• Title/Summary/Keyword: Program Simulation

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Future changes in runoff characteristics of an estuarine reservoir watershed using CMIP6 multi-GCMs (CMIP6 다중 GCMs을 적용한 담수호 유역의 미래 유출특성 변화)

  • Sinae Kim;Seokhyeon Kim;Hyunji Lee;Jihye Kwak;Jihye Kim;Moon-Seong Kang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.419-419
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    • 2023
  • 하천의 최종 유출부와 해양이 만나는 지점을 하구라고 하며, 우리나라는 주로 서해안 지역에 하구 방조제 건설에 따른 담수호가 조성되어 다양한 목적으로 수자원이 활용되고 있다. 이러한 하구 담수호는 바다로 유입되기 직전의 물을 저류시켜 수자원 확보에 긍정적이나, 일반적으로 유역의 최하류에 위치해 있어 오염물질 유입, 부영양화, 염분 침출로 인한 오염물질 용출 등에 취약하다. 따라서 담수호의 회복탄력성 향상과 지속가능한 수자원 관리를 위해서는 미래 기후변화에 따른 영향 분석이 필수적이다. 특히 기후변화는 거대규모의 홍수과 같은 자연재난, 농업가뭄 및 식생가뭄 등의 증가로 이어질 수 있으므로, 이에 효과적으로 대비하기 위해서는 미래 기후조건에 따른 하천의 미래 유출량 변화 예측이 수행되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 불확실한 미래 수문변화를 예측하기 위해 CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) GCMs(Global Climate Models)의 SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 시나리오를 유역 유출모델에 적용하여 기후변화에 따른 미래 유출특성의 변화를 예측하였다. 충청남도 서산시에 위치한 간월호 유역을 대상유역으로 선정하고, HSPF(Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN) 모형을 적용하여 상류유역의 과거 및 미래 장기유출량 모의를 수행하였다. 모의된 시나리오별 유출량을 기반으로 최빈유량곡선법을 적용하여 미래의 기준유량 발생시점 및 지속기간의 변화를 분석하였으며, CVDs(Center-of-volume dates)의 변화를 통해 기후변화에 따른 홍수기의 시기적 변화 양상을 파악하고자 하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 미래 유역 환경변화를 고려한 담수호의 수자원 보전관리계획 수립에 있어 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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Development and evaluation of watershed hybrid model using machine learning (머신러닝을 활용한 유역단위 하이브리드모델 개발 및 평가)

  • Sang Joon Bak;Gwan Jae Lee;Seo Ro Lee;Yeon Ji Jeong;Dong Hyuk Kum;Ji Chul Ryu;Woon JI Park;Kyoung Jae Lim
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.212-212
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    • 2023
  • 비점오염원관리와 같이 장기적인 유역 관리 계획에서 유역 내 오염원 평가는 정말 중요하다. 유역 내 오염원 평가는 강우 유출에 의한 비점오염 발생원이 어디서 얼마나 발생시키는지에 대한 정량적인 조사가 필요하다. 유역 내의 오염원에 대한 정량적인 조사는 많은 비용과 시간이 필요하다. 이러한 비용과 시간을 줄이기 위해 유역단위 수리 수문 모델을 사용하고 있다. 유역단위 수리수문 모델은 HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program in Fortran), SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), L-THIA ACN-WQ(The Long-term Hydrologic Impact Assessment Model with Asymptotic Curve Number Regression Equation and Water Quality model)등 다양한 모델이 사용되고 있다. 하지만 유역 모델을 통한 모의는 다양한 연산 과정을 진행하여 모의까지 많은 시간이 필요하다는 단점이 있다. 이에 따라 데이터 기반 모델링 기법(머신러닝/딥러닝)을 이용한 유출 및 수질 예측 연구가 많이 이루어지고 있다. 단순 머신러닝/딥러닝 기반 모델링 기법은 점(최종유출구)에서의 예측만 가능하여 최적관리 기법 적용 등과 같은 유역관리 방안을 적용하기 힘들다는 문제점이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서 머신러닝/딥러닝을 통해 일부 수문 프로세스를 대체하고 소유역별 하도추적 기법을 연계하여 유량 및 수질 항목들의 모의가 가능한 하이브리드 모델을 개발하였다. 이는 머신러닝/딥러닝이 유역 모델의 일부 연산 과정을 대체하여 모의시간이 빠르며, 기존 머신러닝/딥러닝 예측 모델에서 평가가 어려웠던 유역 관리 방안 및 최적관리기법 적용 평가에도 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단이 된다.

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A FRAMEWORK FOR ACTIVITY-BASED CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT SIMILATION

  • Boong Yeol Ryoo
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.732-737
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    • 2009
  • Due to various project delivery methods and the complexity of construction projects in the construction industry, developing the framework of construction management for critical, highly complex projects in the construction industry has become problematic. Currently, a set of construction manuals play a pivotal role in planning and managing construction projects as subcontractors try to complete their scope of work according to the instructions of a general contractor. It is challenging for general contractors to write a construction management procedure manual to cover various types of project delivery methods and construction projects. In construction, the construction procedure manuals describe specific actions to be taken through the project. In reality a few contactors own such manuals and their construction schedules include more construction operation activities. Thus, it is hard to estimate the workload and productivity of construction managers because the manual and the schedule do not present the amount of management efforts required to complete a project. This paper proposes a framework to present construction management tasks according to project delivery methods which can be applied to various construction projects. Actions for management tasks were mapped and were integrated with construction activities throughout the project life cycle. The framework can then be used to give specific instructions to project participants, collect management actions, and replicate management actions throughout the project life cycle. The framework can also be can used to visualize complete construction project to analyze and manage construction management activities in each phase of a project in order to enhance productivity and efficiency. The studies of existing construction manuals were carried out to identify construction managers' responsibilities. An artificial intelligence program, CLIPS (C-Language Integrated Production System) was used to search for appropriate actions for impending tasks from a set of predefined actions to be performed for a given situation. The framework would significantly help construction managers to understand interrelations among management tasks or actions within a project. Furthermore, the framework can be embedded into Building Information Modeling (BIM) or Facility Management Systems (FMS) so that designers and constructors would execute constructability review before construction begins.

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Development of Calculation Program for Thermophysical Properties of Synthetic Sand Mold (인공주물사의 열물성치 계산 프로그램 개발)

  • In-Sung Cho;Jeong-Ho Nam;K.D. Saveliyev;V.M. Golod;Hee-Soo Kim
    • Journal of Korea Foundry Society
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.194-200
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    • 2023
  • The heat transfer of the mold in the casting process has been calculated by considering the mold as a uniform isotropic material. Since the mold was not a uniform isotropic material, however, the calculation was performed with approximate values, and in particular, estimated values were used when considering compaction and the amount of added binder. In this study, a calculation algorithm of the thermal properties of the sand mold was developed. An algorithm for calculating the thermal conductivity and specific heat based on a thermal resistance model in the case of mono-dispersed sand grains was also developed and applied to sand molds with various size distributions. The thermal properties of sand were calculated for artificial sand, and relatively close values compared to the experimental values were obtained.

Application of rock mass index in the prediction of mine water inrush and grouting quantity

  • Zhao, Jinhai;Liu, Qi;Jiang, Changbao;Defeng, Wang
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.503-515
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    • 2022
  • The permeability coefficient is an essential parameter for the study of seepage flow in fractured rock mass. This paper discusses the feasibility and application value of using readily available RQD (rock quality index) data to estimate mine water inflow and grouting quantity. Firstly, the influence of different fracture frequencies on permeability in a unit area was explored by combining numerical simulation and experiment, and the relationship between fracture frequencies and pressure and flow velocity at the monitoring point in fractured rock mass was obtained. Then, the stochastic function generation program was used to establish the flow analysis model in fractured rock mass to explore the relationship between flow velocity, pressure and analyze the universal law between fracture frequency and permeability. The concepts of fracture width and connectivity are introduced to modify the permeability calculation formula and grouting formula. Finally, based on the on-site grouting water control example, the rock mass quality index is used to estimate the mine water inflow and the grouting quantity. The results show that it is feasible to estimate the fracture frequency and then calculate the permeability coefficient by RQD. The relationship between fracture frequency and RQD is in accordance with exponential function, and the relationship between structure surface frequency and permeability is also in accordance with exponential function. The calculation results are in good agreement with the field monitoring results, which verifies the rationality of the calculation method. The relationship between the rock mass RQD index and the rock mass permeability established in this paper can be used to invert the mechanical parameters of the rock mass or to judge the permeability and safety of the rock mass by using the mechanical parameters of the rock mass, which is of great significance to the prediction of mine water inflow and the safety evaluation of water inrush disaster management.

Assessing the Unit Load Reduction Equation of Drainage Outlet Raising Management in Paddy Fields (논 물꼬관리 기법 적용에 따른 원단위 삭감부하량 산정식 평가)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyeon;Oh, Heung-Keun;Jang, Taeil;Ham, Jong-Hwa
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.65 no.2
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2023
  • The DOR (Drainage outlet raising) in the paddy field has been suggested as one of the most important best management practices for the TMDL (Total maximum daily load) management in the technical guidelines by the NIER (National institute of environmental research). However, this method is underestimated and is not well adopted by local governments for the TMDL. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the unit load reduction equation according to the application of DOR in order to expand this equation. The original equation in the guideline was derived using the HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) model for 1 year in Changnyeong. We analyzed the reduction effect of the original equation application by collecting additional long-term monitoring data from the Buan, Icheon, Iksan, and Jeonju. When comparing the reduction loads between the original equation and monitoring results, the evaluation results of the original equation were 11% of the monitoring analysis results, which was underestimated. This means that the original equation needs to be improved. For assessing the equation, the HSPF Paddy-RCH model was established according to the NI ER guideline and evaluated for applicability. The performance results of the model showed a reasonable range by the statistical criteria. Modified equations 1 and 2 were proposed based on the monitoring and modeling results. Modified equation 1 was the method of modifying the original equation's main factors, and modified equation 2 was the method of applying the non-point pollution reduction efficiency according to the rainfall class using the long-term modeling results. At the level of 58.6~64.6% of monitoring data, the difference between them could be further reduced compared to the original equation. The suggested approach will be more reasonable and practicable for decision-makers and will contribute to the TMDL management plans.

Numerical Simulation of Standing Column Well Ground Heat Pump System Part 1: Validation of the Numerical Model (단일심정 지열히트펌프의 수치적 모델링 Part I: 수치해석 모델 검증)

  • Park, Du-Hee;Kim, Kwang-Kyun;Kwak, Dong-Yeop;Chang, Jae-Hoon;Park, Si-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2010
  • Geothermal energy is gaining wide attention as a highly efficient renewable energy and being increasingly used for heating/cooling systems of buildings. The standing column well (SCW) is especially efficient, cost-effective, and suitable for Korean geological and hydrological conditions. However, a numerical model that simulates the SCW has not yet been developed and applied in Korea. This paper describes the development of the SCW numerical model using a finite-volume analysis program. The model, through hydro-thermal coupled analyses, simulates heat transfer through advection, convection, and conduction. The accuracy of the model was verified through comparisons with field data measured at SCWs in the U.S. and Korea. Comparisons indicated that the SCW numerical model can closely predict the performance of a SCW. The numerical model was used to perform a comprehensive parametric study in the companion paper.

RSM-based Probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Axial Single Pile Structure (축하중 단말뚝구조물의 RSM기반 확률론적 신뢰성해석)

  • Huh Jung-Won;Kwak Ki-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2006
  • An efficient and accurate hybrid reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper to quantify the risk of an axially loaded single pile considering pile-soil interaction behavior and uncertainties in various design variables. The proposed method intelligently integrates the concepts of the response surface method, the finite difference method, the first-order reliability method, and the iterative linear interpolation scheme. The load transfer method is incorporated into the finite difference method for the deterministic analysis of a single pile-soil system. The uncertainties associated with load conditions, material and section properties of a pile and soil properties are explicitly considered. The risk corresponding to both serviceability limit state and strength limit state of the pile and soil is estimated. Applicability, accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in the safety assessment of a realistic pile-soil system subjected to axial loads are verified by comparing it with the results of the Monte Carlo simulation technique.

Acceleration Amplification Analysis according to Changes in Laminar Shear Box Boundary Conditions (연성토조의 경계조건 변화에 따른 가속도 증폭 분석)

  • Jeong, Sugeun;Jin, Yong;Park, Kyungho;Kim, Daehyeon
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2022
  • In this study, the response acceleration amplification according to different conditions was analyzed by changing the boundary condition of the soil called LSB (Laminar Shear Box), which is placed on a 1 g shaking table for earthquake simulation experiments. Experiments were carried out with different boundary conditions by fixing both sides of the LSB, and two samples were tested by installing an accelerometer at the same location. In addition, using DEEPSOIL v7 program, a one-dimensional ground response analysis was performed to compare and analyze with the free field condition. As a result, it was confirmed that the acceleration was amplified as it went from the lower layer to the upper layer, and as a result of comparing it with the ground response analysis, it was confirmed that it appeared similar to the analysis under the free field condition. As a result of the SA (Spectrum acceleration) analysis, a result similar to that of the ground response analysis was obtained, and in the case of fixing, it was confirmed that the PSA (Peak Spectral Acceleration) was further amplified.

Assessment of Uncertainty in SWAT Model Derived from Parameter Estimation Using SWAT-CUP (SWAT-CUP 매개변수 추정에 따른 SWAT 모형 불확실성 평가)

  • Yu, Jisoo;Noh, Joonwoo;Cho, Younghyun;Hur, Youngteck;Kim, Yeonsu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.314-314
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    • 2020
  • SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)은 미국 농무성 농업연구소에서 개발된 준분포형(semi-distributed) 수문 모형으로 복합토지이용유역에서 장기간에 걸친 다양한 종류의 토양, 토지이용 및 토지관리 상태의 변화에 따른 유역의 유출량, 유사량 및 영양물질의 영향을 예측하기 위해 개발되었다. SWAT은 기본적으로 다양한 매개변수에 대한 수동 보정 기능을 제공하고 있지만 매개변수 보정에 따른 모의결과의 불확실성을 수반하게 된다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 자동보정 기능을 제공하는 SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program)이 개발되었다. SWAT-CUP에서 제공하는 매개변수의 최적화 과정에서 유사한 모의 결과를 산출하는 수천 개의 매개변수조합이 존재하기 때문에 보정기법의 선택에 따라 최종 매개변수의 값이 달라질 수 있다. 불확실성을 발생시키는 요인으로 (1) 매개변수의 선택, (2) 보정 기법, (3) 목적함수, (4) 매개변수의 초기 범위, (5) 모의(simulation)의 실행(run) 및 반복(iteration) 횟수, (6) 위치, 개수 등 보정 자료의 선택 등이 주로 지목된다. 이러한 요인으로 발생하는 불확실성은 SWAT 모형의 구조 및 입력 자료에서 기인하는 것으로, 사용자의 설정에 따라 크게 좌우된다. 본 연구에서는 SWAT 매개변수 보정 과정에서 발생할 수 있는 불확실성을 평가하고, 효율적인 보정 방안을 제시하기 위해 수행되었다. 낙동강 권역의 내성천 유역을 대상으로 SWAT 모형을 구축하였으며, 내성천 본류에 위치한 수위(유량) 관측소의 자료를 활용하여 검·보정을 수행하였다. 모의 결과는 유량의 크기 뿐 아니라 유량의 발생 시기, 유역의 반응 및 증가·감소 경향성을 함께 고려하여 평가하였다. 그 결과 모형 구조에 따른 불확실성의 전이과정을 정확하게 파악하는 것은 불가능하지만 SWAT 모형의 비고유성(non-uniqueness)에 의한 불확실성을 정량화하여 나타내었다.

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