• Title/Summary/Keyword: Professional Forecasts

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Determinants of Inflation Expectations of South Korean Consumers (한국 소비자의 기대 인플레이션 결정요인)

  • Young-Bin Ahn
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.413-429
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of consumers' inflation expectations using consumers' inflation perceptions and the sub-components of consumer price index (CPI) basket in South Korea based on a consumer survey conducted by the Bank of Korea (BOK). Design/methodology/approach - Using Carroll's (2003) epidemiological model, we analyzed data from January 2013 to January 2023, resulting in a data set of 121 observations for both inflation perceptions and inflation expectations. This study focuses only on aggregate inflation expectations and perceptions because of data availability from the BOK. Findings - Professionals' forecasts play a major role in forming consumers' inflation expectations, whereas the actual headline CPI and consumers' inflation perceptions do not. These results remain robust when including the sub-components of the CPI basket in the analysis. Research implications or Originality - It would be the most efficient way to suppress professionals' expected inflation in fighting against a substantial spike in consumers' inflation expectations. To guide consumers' inflation expectations based on BOK's inflation targeting, the bank needs to consider professionals' forecasts in devising monetary policies.

The Outline of Han River Basin Environmental master Plan Project (한강유역 환경보전 종합계획 사업의 개요)

  • 이선환
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.46-50
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    • 1982
  • Following rapid industrial development and urbanization in Korea, there is a need for the Government to implement effective control of pollution and to undertake specific schemes in areas where pollution of the environment is severe. In response to this need, Government of Korea prepare Han River Basin Environmental Master Plan Project for water, air, solid waste to cover environmental protection of the Han River Basin. The Project area is approximately 27,000 sq. Km extending over Seoul, Kyunggi, Kwangwon, Chungbuk Province. The total population of Master Plan Project area is approximately 11.6 million, or one-third of the total population of Korea. There are about 8,000 industries, including those located in 16 industrial complexes, in the project area. The scope of work and terms of reference are the following: (1) A Summary of existing land use and forecasts for changes in land use by the year 2,000. (2) Emission inventories for air, waste water, and solid wastes. (3) Forecasts of future population growth patterns and pollution loadings. (4) Identification of specific projects needs to reduce pollution levels and satisfy the environmental quality standards. (5) A Program of enforcement to include (i) self monitoring, and (ii) governmental inspections and surveillance. (6) A program for quality improvement and quality assurance of environmental measurements. (7) Reports summarizing all data collected analyzed during the study. (8) Conceptual design and feasibility studies, including cost estimates, for needed pollution control projects. (9) A financial plan for future detailed design and construction of public facilities, for financial incentives to industry, and for user charges for industrial use of public treatment of disposal works.

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[Retracted] Novel Genotoxic Strategies for Efficiently Detect Chemicals' Carcinogenicity ([논문 철회] 노동자 건강보호를 위한 최신 유전독성학 연구전략)

  • Rim, Kyung-Taek
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: Effective genetic toxicology and molecular biology research techniques and strategies that are highly correlated with the carcinogenic inhalation toxicity test and related research are required. The aim of this study was to maximize the utilization of chemical substances to prevent workers' occupational diseases. Methods: We surveyed the literature, domestic and international references, and the status of relevant domestic and foreign professional organizations. Expert advisory opinions were reflected, and experts were consulted by participating in domestic and overseas academic conferences. Results: The current status of domestic and international genotoxic toxicity evaluation was examined through various documents from related organizations. Cell models for in vitro lung toxicology were investigated and summarized, and the human resources and performance results of genetic toxicity studies and pilot projects were compared and analyzed by holding an advisory meeting. We examined domestic and international genotoxicity guidelines and investigated new test methods for the development of genotoxicity and carcinogenicity. Ultimately, we described long-term future predictions, including the implementation of our researchers' recommendations and occupational genetic toxicology forecasts for future worker health protection. Conclusions: This research project aims to establish current genetic toxicology and molecular biology research techniques and strategies that can maximize the linkage with the carcinogenic inhalation toxicity test and research in the future. We expanded the study of genetic toxicity and establish a foundation forgenetic toxicity in accordance with research trends in Korea and abroad.

KOREAN CONSTRUCTION JOB MARKET FORECAST FOR CIVIL/ARCHITECTURAL ENGINEERS

  • Hwan Pyo Park;Myung Jin Chae;Minwoo Lee
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.952-955
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    • 2005
  • In the early 90's, we had serious shortage of construction engineers in Korea. The shortage was acute especially in construction quality control and supervision area, which were gaining social attention due to the road bridge and the department store collapse that took the hundreds of lives in the early 90's in Seoul, Korea. In order to meet the high demand of construction engineers, the engineering license regulations were changed in 1995. Engineers who did not pass the written exam but have equivalent working experience are given engineering license to practice engineering legally. Since year 2000, while the severe engineer-shortage has been resolved, the opposite situation has occurred: there is serious over-supply of construction engineers. Policy makers and engineering practitioners are agreed to bring back the old-fashioned written exam engineer licensing system like before 1995, i.e., no more written exam exemption. However, the engineers who obtained license without taking written exam may not want to go back to old policy which would take their license. It is required to provide appropriate grace period before the new policy takes effect to minimize the impact of the changes. This paper forecasts the supply-demand of construction engineers providing the basis for the most appropriate policy changes.

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A Study on the Stereoscopic 3D Filmmaking Curriculum in the Film and Image Major (영화 영상 전공에서의 스테레오스코픽 3D 제작 교육 과정 연구)

  • Lee, Chan-Bok
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.222-235
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    • 2010
  • After its remarkable success, "Avatar" brought another way of creating cinematic story; the stereoscopic 3-D cinema. Comparing conventional 2-D filmmaking, you need twice as much of budget and manpower in 3-D filmmaking because of the complicated process and slow production speed. The 3-D hardware like 3-D TV and 3-D projector are already showing at the retail stores while 3-D filmmaking is still in veil, and no major educational institution is yet to start 3-D related education. As 3-D movies get popular and demand more 3-D filmmaking professional crew, educating 3-D filmmaking to 2-D based film students will improve their hiring rate in the market. The successful result of the box office showing 3-D films like "Alice in Wonderland 3D" and "Titan 3D" forecasts that there will be more demand on 3-D related jobs very soon.

Flood Response Disaster Prevention Facility Simulator Design and Prototype Development Using Spill and Inundation Model (유출·침수모델을 이용한 홍수대응 방재시설 시뮬레이터 설계 및 프로토타입 개발)

  • Seo, Sung Chul;Kim, Ui Hwan;Park, Hyung Keun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.259-266
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    • 2023
  • Global climate change is increasing, and the damage and scale of localized torrential rains are increasing. Pre-flood analysis simulation results should be derived from rainfall data through rainfall forecasts to prevent flood damage. In addition, it is necessary to control the use and management of flood response disaster prevention facilities through immediate decision-making. However, methods using spills and flood models such as XPSWMM and GATE2018 are limited due to professional usability and complex analytical procedures. Prototype (flood disaster prevention facility simulator) of this study is developed by calculating rainfall (short-term and long-term) using CBD software development methods. It is also expected to construct administrator and user-centric interfaces and provide GIS and visible data (graphs, charts, etc.).

Matching prediction on Korean professional volleyball league (한국 프로배구 연맹의 경기 예측 및 영향요인 분석)

  • Heesook Kim;Nakyung Lee;Jiyoon Lee;Jongwoo Song
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.323-338
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    • 2024
  • This study analyzes the Korean professional volleyball league and predict match outcomes using popular machine learning classification methods. Match data from the 2012/2013 to 2022/2023 seasons for both male and female leagues were collected, including match details. Two different data structures were applied to the models: Separating matches results into two teams and performance differentials between the home and away teams. These two data structures were applied to construct a total of four predictive models, encompassing both male and female leagues. As specific variable values used in the models are unavailable before the end of matches, the results of the most recent 3 to 4 matches, up until just before today's match, were preprocessed and utilized as variables. Logistc Regrssion, Decision Tree, Bagging, Random Forest, Xgboost, Adaboost, and Light GBM, were employed for classification, and the model employing Random Forest showed the highest predictive performance. The results indicated that while significant variables varied by gender and data structure, set success rate, blocking points scored, and the number of faults were consistently crucial. Notably, our win-loss prediction model's distinctiveness lies in its ability to provide pre-match forecasts rather than post-event predictions.

A Research on Consumer Preference for a Forest based Korean Medical Healing Tourism Product (산림기반형 한방치유 관광상품의 선호도에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jeong-Min
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.463-471
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    • 2012
  • Objective of this study is to provide basic information for developing more differentiated and targeted forest healing policy and Korean medical healing programs grounded on consumer preference for forest based Korean medical healing tourism products. The internet survey(CAWI) by percentage quota sampling with 400 Seoulite ages over 30 by the age, area, and gender was conducted, and 317 samples were used for a final analysis. 61.5% of the Seoulite associated 'forest bath/walking in the woods/tree' with an image of a forest based Korean medical healing tourism product, and preference for the product and the intention to use were positive at the percentages of 72.9% and 67.5%, respectively. Preferred areas were Seoul/Gyeonggi-do(53.5%) and Gangwon-do(38.8%). 'Stress solving and refreshment', 'taking a forest bath and a walk', and 'maintaining and promoting health' were the main purposes of the use. As for a therapy, 'walking therapy' was most preferred, and 'ergotherapy' was the next. First priority as for a use facility was 'healing trail', and 'professional medical facility' ranked second. Although important decision attributes were ' cost of use', 'food', and 'friendliness of medical staff', all the other sets of attributes related to use convenience, quality of medical service and tourism activities also recorded high, which forecasts higher consumer expectation for the product. As the result showing differences in consumer preference by the demographic segmentation, differentiated and segmented consumer needs should be considered when planing and managing a product. The scope of the study is limited to a demographic segmentation which is a basic stage of understanding consumer preference, therefore more detailed future researches on complicated and multi-dimensional consumer needs are required.

Labor market forecasts for Information and communication construction business (정보통신공사업 인력수급차 분석 및 전망)

  • Kwak, Jeong Ho;Kwun, Tae Hee;Oh, Dong-Suk;Kim, Jung-Woo
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2015
  • In this era of smart convergent environment wherein all industries are converged on ICT infrastructure and industries and cultures come together, the information and communication construction business is becoming more important. For the information and communication construction business to continue growing, it is very important to ensure that technical manpower is stably supplied. To date, however, there has been no theoretically methodical analysis of manpower supply and demand in the information and communications construction business. The need for the analysis of manpower supply and demand has become even more important after the government announced the road map for the development of construction business in December 2014 to seek measures to strengthen the human resources capacity based on the mid- to long-term manpower supply and demand analysis. As such, this study developed the manpower supply and demand forecast model for the information and communications construction business and presented the result of manpower supply and demand analysis. The analysis suggested that an overdemand situation would arise since the number of graduates of technical colleges decreased beginning 2007 because of fewer students entering technical colleges and due to the restructuring and reform of departments. In conclusion, it cited the need for the reeducation of existing manpower, continuous upgrading of professional development in the information and communications construction business, and provision of various policy incentives.

A Study on Trend Forecasting of the Ethnic Theme-Concentrating on Los Angels Market in '97 F/W- (에스닉 테마를 주제로 한 유행경향 예측에 관한 연구-‘97 F/W 로스엔젤레스 시장을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Hye-Young
    • The Journal of Natural Sciences
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.199-208
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    • 1998
  • This study forecasts the trend of ethnic theme through market survey, concentrating on Los Angeles market. First, the background of ethnic theme was examined, and the present situation of shops, department sores, and headquarter was also surveyed. After that, fashion trend suitable for market was suggested by analyzing the life style of consumers through zip code. The results of the study are as follows. The conspicuous trend of '97 F/W retail stores is ethnic. This reaction to complicated modern life, and symbolizes the desirable evaluation on the simpleness of basic life and nature. The model of ethnic design is identified in natural clothing, primitive arts, ethnic culture and African theme. In short, this ethnic fashion is expressed as simpleness, naturalism convenience and freedom. On the other hand, the standard of general department stores such as Broadway and Robinson May which are the headquarter of this trend is to satisfy various consumers with various styles. Ethnic goods from Broadway has not arrived at the top for its introducing step. To elevate sales of these goods, promotion through VMD and suggesting various ethnic goods should be done. Besides, when analyzing the consumers of Beverly center Broadway, the target of these goods are mostly professional young people in their 25-34 and 35-44. The life style of these people emphasizes sophisticated life in aspects such as job-oriented activities, and up-to-date fashion. Especially, image is very important. They want individuality different from others. These images are diversified from simpleness, naiveness to sexy character. Accordingly, suggesting fashion trend satisfying the demand of consumers through market survey will make fashion market create infinite possibilities.

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