• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probability of survival

Search Result 245, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Discrete-time Survival Analysis of Risk Factors for Early Menarche in Korean Schoolgirls

  • Yong Jin Gil;Jong Hyun Park;Joohon Sung
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.56 no.1
    • /
    • pp.59-66
    • /
    • 2023
  • Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of body weight status and sleep duration on the discrete-time hazard of menarche in Korean schoolgirls using multiple-point prospective panel data. Methods: The study included 914 girls in the 2010 Korean Children and Youth Panel Study who were in the elementary first-grader panel from 2010 until 2016. We used a Gompertz regression model to estimate the effects of weight status based on age-specific and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) percentile and sleep duration on an early schoolchild's conditional probability of menarche during a given time interval using general health condition and annual household income as covariates. Results: Gompertz regression of time to menarche data collected from the Korean Children and Youth Panel Study 2010 suggested that being overweight or sleeping less than the recommended duration was related to an increased hazard of menarche compared to being average weight and sleeping 9 hours to 11 hours, by 1.63 times and 1.38 times, respectively, while other covariates were fixed. In contrast, being underweight was associated with a 66% lower discrete-time hazard of menarche. Conclusions: Weight status based on BMI percentiles and sleep duration in the early school years affect the hazard of menarche.

The impact of hair coat color on longevity of Holstein cows in the tropics

  • Lee, C.N.;Baek, K.S.;Parkhurst, A.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.58 no.12
    • /
    • pp.41.1-41.7
    • /
    • 2016
  • Background: Over two decades of observations in the field in South East Asia and Hawai'i suggest that majority of the commercial dairy herds are of black hair coat. Hence a simple study to determine the accuracy of the observation was conducted with two large dairy herds in Hawaii in the mid-1990s. Methods: A retrospective study on longevity of Holstein cattle in the tropics was conducted using DairyComp-305 lactation information coupled with phenotypic evaluation of hair coat color in two large dairy farms. Cows were classified into 3 groups: a) black (B, >90%); b) black/white (BW, 50:50) and c) white (W, >90%). Cows with other hair coat distribution were excluded from the study. In farm A, 211 out of 970 cows were identified having 4 or more lactations. In farm B, 690 out of 1,350 cows were identified with 2 or more lactations for the study. Results: The regression analyses and the Wilcoxon-Log-rank test for survival probability showed that Holstein cattle with 90% black hair coat had greater longevity compared to Holstein cattle with 90% white hair coat. Conclusions: This study suggests that longevity of Holstein cattle in tropical regions was influenced by hair coat color and characteristics.

Probabilistic seismic performance evaluation of non-seismic RC frame buildings

  • Maniyar, M.M.;Khare, R.K.;Dhakal, R.P.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.33 no.6
    • /
    • pp.725-745
    • /
    • 2009
  • In this paper, probabilistic seismic performance assessment of a typical non-seismic RC frame building representative of a large inventory of existing buildings in developing countries is conducted. Nonlinear time-history analyses of the sample building are performed with 20 large-magnitude medium distance ground motions scaled to different levels of intensity represented by peak ground acceleration and 5% damped elastic spectral acceleration at the first mode period of the building. The hysteretic model used in the analyses accommodates stiffness degradation, ductility-based strength decay, hysteretic energy-based strength decay and pinching due to gap opening and closing. The maximum inter story drift ratios obtained from the time-history analyses are plotted against the ground motion intensities. A method is defined for obtaining the yielding and collapse capacity of the analyzed structure using these curves. The fragility curves for yielding and collapse damage levels are developed by statistically interpreting the results of the time-history analyses. Hazard-survival curves are generated by changing the horizontal axis of the fragility curves from ground motion intensities to their annual probability of exceedance using the log-log linear ground motion hazard model. The results express at a glance the probabilities of yielding and collapse against various levels of ground motion intensities.

Association between Urinary Cadmium and All Cause, All Cancer and Prostate Cancer Specific Mortalities for Men: an Analysis of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) Data

  • Cheung, Min Rex;Kang, Josephine;Ouyang, Daniel;Yeung, Vincent
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.483-488
    • /
    • 2014
  • Aim: This study employed public use National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) data to investigate the association between urinary cadmium (UDPSI) and all cause, all cancer and prostate cancer mortalities in men. Patients and Methods: NHANES III household adult, laboratory and mortality data were merged. The sampling weight used was WTPFEX6, with SDPPSU6 applied for the probability sampling unit and SDPSTRA6 to designate the strata for the survey analysis. Results: For prostate cancer death, the significant univariates were UDPSI, age, weight, and drinking. Under multivariate logistic regression, the significant covariates were age and weight. For all cause mortality in men, the significant covariates were UDPSI, age, and poverty income ratio. For all cancer mortality in men, the significant covariates were UDPSI, age, black and Mexican race. Conclusions: UDPSI was a predictor of all cause and all cancer mortalities in men as well as prostate cancer mortality.

Reliability-based approach for fragility assessment of bridges under floods

  • Raj Kamal Arora;Swagata Banerjee
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.88 no.4
    • /
    • pp.311-322
    • /
    • 2023
  • Riverine flood is one of the critical natural threats to river-crossing bridges. As floods are the most-occurred natural hazard worldwide, survival probability of bridges due to floods must be assessed in a speedy but precise manner. In this regard, the paper presents a reliability-based approach for a rapid assessment of failure probability of vulnerable bridge components under floods. This robust method is generic in nature and can be applied to both concrete and steel girder bridges. The developed methodology essentially utilizes limit state performance functions, expressed in terms of capacity and flood demand, for probable failure modes of various vulnerable components of bridges. Advanced First Order Reliability Method (AFORM), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) techniques are applied for the purpose of reliability assessment and developing flood fragility curves of bridges in which flow velocity and water height are taken as flood intensity measures. Upon validating the proposed method, it is applied to a case study bridge that experiences the flood scenario of a river in Gujarat, India. Research outcome portrays how effectively and efficiently the proposed reliability-based method can be applied for a quick assessment of flood vulnerability of bridges in any flood-prone region of interest.

Lifetime Assessments on 154 kV Transmission Porcelain Insulators with a Bayesian Approach (베이지안 방법론을 적용한 154 kV 송전용 자기애자의 수명 평가 개발)

  • Choi, In-Hyuk;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Yoon, Yong-Beum;Yi, Junsin;Kim, Seong Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
    • /
    • v.30 no.9
    • /
    • pp.551-557
    • /
    • 2017
  • It is extremely important to improve methodologies for the lifetime assessment of porcelain insulators. While there has been a considerable amount of work regarding the phenomena of lifetime distributions, most of the studies assume that aging distributions follow the Weibull distribution. However, the true underlying distribution is unknown, giving rise to unrealistic inferences, such as parameter estimations. In this article, we review several distributions that are commonly used in reliability and survival analysis, such as the exponential, Weibull, log-normal, and gamma distributions. Some properties, including the characteristics of failure rates of these distributions, are presented. We use a Bayesian approach for model selection and parameter estimation procedures. A well-known measure, called the Bayes factor, is used to find the most plausible model among several contending models. The posterior mean can be used as a parameter estimate for unknown parameters, once a model with the highest posterior probability is selected. Extensive simulation studies are performed to demonstrate our methodologies.

What Exacerbates the Probability of Business Closure in the Private Sector During the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from World Bank Enterprise Survey Data

  • PHAM, Thi Bich Duyen;NGUYEN, Hoang Phong
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.9 no.6
    • /
    • pp.69-79
    • /
    • 2022
  • The purpose of the study is to look into the likelihood of private sector enterprises going bankrupt due to COVID-19 pandemic-related issues. The data for this study was taken from the World Bank's Enterprise Survey, which was intended to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the business sector. This study uses the Ordinal Logit Method to analyze the model with dependent variables having ordinal values. The determinants reflect business performance, innovation, business relationships, and government support. According to the estimation results, a lower probability of business closures, illiquidity, and payment delays are found in businesses that maintain sales growth, operating hours, temporary workers, product portfolio, consumer demand, and input supply. Meanwhile, the increase in online business activities and receiving support from financial institutions and the government do not help businesses reduce the risk. Moreover, higher survival is found in manufacturing and developing countries. This implies the fragility of businesses in the retail and service sectors, especially for mega-enterprises in developed countries. In addition, the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses in Europe and West Asia is less severe than in other regions. The results imply policies to support the private sector during the pandemic, such as increasing labor market flexibility or rapidly implementing supportive policies.

Maximum Kill Selection Algorithm for Weapon Target Assignment (WTA) Problem (무기 목표물 배정 문제의 최대 치사인원 선택 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Sang-Un
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.221-227
    • /
    • 2019
  • It has long been known that weapon target assignment (WTA) problem is NP-hard. Nonetheless, an exact solution can be found using Brute-Force or branch-and bound method which utilize approximation. Many heuristic algorithms, genetic algorithm particle swarm optimization, etc., have been proposed which provide near-optimal solutions in polynomial time. This paper suggests polynomial time algorithm that can be obtain the optimal solution of WTA problem for the number of total weapons k, the number of weapon types m, and the number of targets n. This algorithm performs k times for O(mn) so the algorithm complexity is O(kmn). The proposed algorithm can be minimize the number of trials than brute-force method and can be obtain the optimal solution.

Feedback Semi-Definite Relaxation for near-Maximum Likelihood Detection in MIMO Systems (MIMO 시스템에서 최적 검출 기법을 위한 궤환 Semi-Definite Relaxation 검출기)

  • Park, Su-Bin;Lee, Dong-Jin;Byun, Youn-Shik
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.33 no.12C
    • /
    • pp.1082-1087
    • /
    • 2008
  • Maximum Likelihood (ML) detection is well known to exhibit better bit-error-rate (BER) than many other detectors for multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channel. However, ML detection has been shown a difficult problem due to its NP-hard problem. It means that there is no known algorithm which can find the optimal solution in polynomial-time. In this paper, Semi-Definite relaxation (SDR) is iteratively applied to ML detection problem. The probability distribution can be obtained by survival eigenvector out of the dominant eigenvalue term of the optimal solution. The probability distribution which is yielded by SDR is recurred to the received signal. Our approach can reach to nearly ML performance.

A Study of the Disposal Maneuver Planning for LEO Satellite (저궤도 위성의 폐기기동 계획 연구)

  • Seong, Jae-Dong;Kim, Hae-Dong;Choi, Ha-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.44 no.4
    • /
    • pp.352-362
    • /
    • 2016
  • In this paper, a disposal maneuver which complies the space debris mitigation guideline was analysed for KOMPSAT-2 as an example of LEO satellite. Definition of disposal altitude which comply the '25 year rule', re-entry survivability analysis of KOMPSAT-2 parts inside and casualty area analysis were performed using STK and ESA's DRAMA. Finally, assuming that there were several survival objects during uncontrolled re-entry stage, the re-entry initial orbit elements which show the low casualty probability were found even if there were various uncertainties about the initial orbit. As a result, KOMPSAT-2 should be descended its altitude at least 43km or up to 105km to comply '25 year rule' and there were heavy or heat resistant survival objects which generated $4.3141m^2$ casualty area. And if RAAN of re-entry initial orbit was 129 degree, total casualty probability was lower than standard value of space debris mitigation guideline even if there were uncertainties about the initial orbit.