• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.12-17
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• 2017

Manned aircraft structural design is based on structural safety factor of 1.5, and this safety factor is equivalent to a probability of failure of between 10-2 and 10-3. The target failure probability of FARs is between 10-6 and 10-9 per flight according to aircraft type. NATO released STANAG 4703 to established the airworthiness requirements for small UAV which is less than 150kg. STANAG 4703 requires the Target Level of Safety according to MTOW. The requirements of failure probability for small UAV is between 10-4 and 10-5. In this paper, requirements of airworthiness certification for small UAV were investigated and the relationship of safety factors to the probability of structural failure is analyzed to reduce measure of safety factor and structural weight of unmanned aircraft.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제24권4호
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• pp.53-58
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• 2009

The importance of process for repair and reinforcement of the bridge is increasing because of the lack of the fatigue load and stress, a lowering of the bridge load carrying capacity owing to impact and oscillation, deterioration on cultivation periods of the bridge, etc. Typically the experimenter values the bridge load carrying capacity by the real rating factor and response modification factor in bridge load rating through static load test and dynamic load test. But the error occurred in reliability of response modification factor in bridge load rating according to experience of experimenter. so tests of connecting probability theory and valuation of the bridge recently. The study is to compute the real load carrying capacity of the bridge and the rating factor and response modification factor on grade of the bridge, and calculate the probability of over-loaded truck load from Weigh In Motion(WIM) Data in FORTRAN programming applying to Monte-Carlo Simulation. At the result of this study, it is acquired that the new grade is computed for the probability of over-loaded truck load and surface inspection. The A grade is over 1.95, B grade is $1.55{\sim}1.94$, C grade is $1.26{\sim}1.54$, D grade is $1.14{\sim}1.25$, E grade is under 1.13 of rating factor, respectively.

• 논리연구
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.115-131
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• 2002

The problem of disjunctive causal factors is generalized as follows. Suppose that there are no factors of the kind considered so far that need to be held fixed in background contexts. Nevertheless, it is still possible that within the background contexts, each disjunct of a disjunctive causal factor X v W confers a different probability on an effect factor in Question. So a problem arises of how we identify a single causally significant probability of the effect factor in the presence of the disjunctive causal factor, assuming that each disjunct of the disjunctive causal factor confers a different probability on the effect factor. In this paper, I first introduce an experiment in which disjunctive causal factors seem to pose a problem for the theory of probabilistic causation. Second, I show how Eells' solution to the problem of disjunctive causal factors meets the problem that arises in the experiment. Third, I examine Hitchcock's arguments against Eells' solution, arguing that Hitchcock misconstrues Eells' solution, and disregards the feature of the theory of probabilistic causation such that a factor is a causal factor for another factor relative to a population P of a population type Q.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제3권
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• pp.53-63
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• 1983

The probability of failure is used to analyze the reliability of three dimensional slope failure, instead of conventional factor of safety. The strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated. These are interval estimated under the specified confidence level and maximum likelihood estimation. The pseudonormal and beta random variables are generated using the uniform probability transformation method according to central limit theorem and rejection method. By means of a Monte-Carlo Simulation, the probability of failure is defined as; Pf=M/N N : Total number of trials M : Total number of failures Some of the conclusions derived from the case study include; 1. Three dimensional factors of safety are generally much higher than 2-D factors of safety. However situations appear to exist where the 3-D factor of safety can be lower than the 2-D factor of safety. 2. The F3/F2 ratio appears to be quite sensitive to c and ${\phi}$ and to the shape of the 3-D shear surface and the slope but not to be to the unit weight of soil. 3. In cases that strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated, the relationships between safety factor and the probability of failure are fairly consistent, regardless of the shape of the 3-D shear surface and the slope. 4. As the c-value is increased, the probability of failure for the same safety factor is increased and as the ${\phi}-value$ is increased, the probability of failure for the same safety factor is decreased.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.125-134
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• 2003

교량의 현 내하력을 평가하기 위해서 사용되는 방법으로 허용응력 평가법(ASR), 하중계수평가법 (LFR) 등의 방법 등이 사용되고 있다. 현재, 교랑 평가 값을 이용하여 이 값을 확률이론에 연결시키려는 시도들이 많이 연구되고 있다. 본 논문의 주목적은 교량의 내하력 평가값 (Rating Factor)과 확률이론을 이용하여, 과하중 확률을 구하는데 있습니다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 평가 방법들을 요약 설명하고, Weigh-in-Motion에 의해 얻은 활하중 모델을 도입하여, 교량 평가 값을 확률이론에 연결 시켰다. 활하중 모델과 교량 내하력 값을 토대로, 초과 하중 확률을 계산하고, 그 방법을 설명하였다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.249-261
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• 2023

Aerodynamic force coefficients are generally prescribed by an ensemble average of ten and/or twenty 10-minute samples. However, this makes it difficult to identify the exact probability distribution and exceedance probability of the prescribed values. In this study, 12,600 10-minute samples on three tall buildings were measured, and the probability distributions were first identified and the aerodynamic force coefficients corresponding to the specific non-exceedance probabilities (cumulative probabilities) of wind load were then evaluated. It was found that the probability distributions of the mean and fluctuating aerodynamic force coefficients followed a normal distribution. The ratios of aerodynamic force coefficients corresponding to the specific non-exceedance probabilities (C_f,Non) to the ensemble average of 12,600 samples (C_f,Ens), which was defined as an adjusting factor (C_f,Non/C_f,Ens), were less than 2%. The effect of coefficient of variation of wind speed on the adjusting factor is larger than that of the annual non-exceedance probability of wind load. The non-exceedance probabilities of the aerodynamic force coefficient is between P_C,nonex = 50% and 60% regardless of force components and aspect ratios. The adjusting factors from the Gumbel distribution were larger than those from the normal distribution.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2007년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.1798-1802
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• 2007

The practice of business estimate flood discharge by rainfall-flow relation that is easy collection of observation data. The important factor is rainfall, coefficient of runoff, and drainage area for analysis of runoff-flow relation.The practice of business usually use probability rainfall that use a weighted average value after each observation post estimate probability of non-same time. It has more error than same time probability rainfall, and it can excess of estimation because it can't consider space distribution of rainfall.The study of result showed similar aspect with existing ARF but width of coefficient become smaller. And the comparison of peak flow did not different what used by ARF and same time probability rainfall(A group). But non-same time probability rainfall is bigger 25% more than another(B group). Between A group and B group of the difference increased with the lapse of time.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제27권A호
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• pp.95-102
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• 2007

The practice of business estimate flood discharge by rainfall-flow relation that is easy collection of observation data. The important factor is rainfall, coefficient of runoff, and drainage area for analysis of runoff-flow relation. The practice of business usually use probability rainfall that use a weighted average value after each observation post estimate probability of non-same time. It has more error than same time probability rainfall, and it can excess of estimation because it can't consider space distribution of rainfall. The study of result showed similar aspect with existing ARF but width of coefficient become smaller. And the comparison of peak flow did not different what used by ARF and same time probability rainfall(A group). But non-same time probability rainfall is bigger 25% more than another(B group). Between A group and B group of the difference increased with the lapse of time.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제21권B호
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• pp.163-174
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• 2001

A dynamic reliability model for analyzing the stability of armor units on rubble-mound breakwater is mathematically developed by using Hudson's formula and definition of single-failure mode. The probability density functions of resistance and loading functions are defined properly, the related parameters to those probability density functions are also estimated straightforwardly by the first-order analysis. It is found that probabilities of failure for the stability of armor units on rubble-mound breakwater are continuously increased as the service periods are elapsed, because of the occurrence of repeated loading of random magnitude by which the resistance may be deteriorated. In particular, the factor of safety is incorporated into the dynamic reliability model in order to evaluate the probability of failure as a function of factor of safety. It may thus be possible to take some informations for optimal design as well as managements and repairs of armor units on rubble-mound breakwater from the dynamic reliability analyses.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.1183-1191
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• 2018

Reliability analysis is generally regarded as the most appropriate method when uncertainties are taken into account in slope designs. With the help of limit analysis, probability evaluation for three-dimensional rock slope stability was conducted based upon the Mote Carlo method. The nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion was employed to reflect the practical strength characteristics of rock mass. A form of stability factor is used to perform reliability analysis for rock slopes. Results show that the variation of strength uncertainties has significant influence on probability of failure for rock slopes, as well as strength constants. It is found that the relationship between probability of failure and mean safety factor is independent of the magnitudes of input parameters but relative to the variability of variables. Due to the phenomenon, curves displaying this relationship can provide guidance for designers to obtain factor of safety according to required failure probability.