• 전기학회논문지
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• 제64권1호
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• pp.1-7
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• 2015

This paper proposes probabilistic reliability evaluation model of power system considering Wind Turbine Generator(WTG) integrated with Energy Storage System(ESS). Monte carlo sample state duration simulation method is used for the evaluation. Because the power output from WTG units usually fluctuates randomly, the power cannot be counted on to continuously satisfy the system load. Although the power output at any time is not controllable, the power output can be utilized by ESS. The ESS may make to smooth the fluctuation of the WTG power output. The detail process of power system reliability evaluation considering ESS cooperated WTG is presented using case study of Jeju island power system in the paper.

• 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국원자력학회 1997년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(1)
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• pp.611-616
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• 1997

The Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment(PSA) for Wolsong(WS) 2/3/4 nuclear power plant(NPPs) in design stage is performed using the methodologies being equivalent to PWR PSA. Accident sequence evaluation program(ASEP) human reliability analysis(HRA) procedure and technique for human error rate prediction(THERP) are used in HRA of WS 2/3/4 NPPs PSA. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the procedure and methodology of HRA in WS 2/3/4 NPPs PSA. Also, this paper describes the interim results of importance analysis for human actions modeled in WS 2/3/4 PSA and the findings and recommendations of administrative control of secondary control area from the view of human factors.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.1-11
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• 1988

층상구조(層狀構造)로 이루어진 아스팔트 포장도로(鋪裝道路)의 안전성(安全性)은 교통하중(交通荷重)과 아스팔트 콘크리트의 층별강도(層別觸强度)와의 함수관계(函數關係)에 의하여 평가된다. 본(本) 논문(論文)은 아스팔트 포장도로(鋪裝道路)의 신뢰도(信賴度)를 고찰(考察)하기 위하여 확률론적(確率論的) 방법(方法)을 적용시켰는데 이에 사용(使用)된 자료(資料)들은 현장(現場) 또는 문헌(文獻)으로부터 수집하였다. 각층(各層)의 임계인장강도(臨界引張强度)를 목표신뢰도(目標信賴度)에 근거(根據)하여 시뮬레이션 방법(方法)으로 산정(算定)하였는데 이 값을 실제로 표면(表面)에 손상(損傷)이 일어난 시료강도(試料强度)와 비교(比較), 고찰(考察)하였다. 확률론적방법(確率論的方法)으로 산정(算定)한 임계강도(臨界强度)는 현행(現行)의 도로조건(道路條件)에 적합(適合)한 값임을 알 수 있었다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권5호
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• pp.1901-1910
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• 2023

The safety-class (1E) digital control system (DCS) of nuclear power plant characterized structural multiple redundancies, therefore, it is important to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of DCS in different degree of backup loss. In this paper, a reliability evaluation model based on T-S fuzzy fault tree (FT) is proposed for 1E DCS of nuclear power plant, in which the connection relationship between components is described by T-S fuzzy gates. Specifically, an output rejection control system is chosen as an example, based on the T-S fuzzy FT model, the key indicators such as probabilistic importance are calculated, and for a further discussion, the T-S fuzzy FT model is transformed into Bayesian Network(BN) equivalently, and the fault diagnosis based on probabilistic analysis is accomplished. Combined with the analysis of actual objects, the effectiveness of proposed method is proved.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제67권5호
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• pp.601-610
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• 2018

The purpose of this paper is to establish a new optimum Generator Maintenance Scheduling(GMS) considering renewable energy generator. In this paper, the total renewable energy generation is estimated using hourly capacity factor of renewable energy generator. The GMS was optimized with the objective function of maximizing the minimum reserve rate, minimizing the probabilistic production cost, minimizing the loss of load expectation, and minimizing $CO_2$ emissions. In the case study of this paper, GMS considering renewable energy and GMS not considering renewable energy are shown by each objective function. And it shows scenarios of the reliability, the environmental and economical factors when two nuclear power plants inputted and ten coal thermal power plants shut downed respectively.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 논문집 전력기술부문
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• pp.27-29
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• 2006

This paper deals with the application of the concept of POM to analysis of power system behavior and describes a practical method of PRA for KEPCO system. This paper presents not only marginal power flow evaluation of KEPCO system in view point of physical and operation mode by using Physical and Operational Margins (POM Ver. 2.2), which is developed by V&R Energy System Research, but also by using Probabilistic Reliability Assessment (PRA Ver.3.1), which is developed by EPRI. The ability of the method to provide insights on root causes, weak points and regional causes and effects was shown. The approach offers fast and accurate determination of bottlenecks in the transmission network and optimal mitigation measures to alleviate the identified violations.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.95-101
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• 2016

This study proposes a multi-scale dynamic system reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this second paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the structure-level failure. Since the failure of one structural member does not necessarily cause the collapse of the structural system, we need to consider a set of failure scenarios of the structural system and compute the sum of the failure probabilities of the failure scenarios where the statistical dependence between the failure scenarios should be taken into account. Therefore, this computation requires additional system reliability analysis. As a result, the proposed approach takes a hierarchial framework where the failure probability of a structural member is computed using a lower-scale system reliability with the union set of time-sequential member failures and their statistical dependence, and the failure probability of the structural system is again computed using a higher-scale system reliability with the member failure probabilities obtained by the lower-scale system reliability and their statistical dependence. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide an accurate and stable reliability assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system on the system failure. Also, the parametric study of damper capacity on the seismic performance has been performed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach through the probabilistic assessment of the seismic performance improvement of the damper system.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.537-547
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• 2015

A Monte Carlo (MC) simulation was conducted to predict the reliability of a newly developed pyrotechnic pin puller. The reliability model is based on the stress-strength interference model that states that failure occurs if the stress exceeds the strength. In this study, the stress is considered to be the energy consumed by movement of a pin shaft, and the strength is considered to be the energy generated by pyrotechnic combustion for driving the pin shaft. Failure of the pin puller can thus be defined as the consumed energy being greater than the generated energy. These energies were calculated using a performance model formulated in the previous study of the present authors. The MC method was used to synthesize the probability densities of the two energies and evaluate the reliability of the pin puller. From a probabilistic perspective, the calculated reliability was compared to a deterministic safety factor. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine which design parameters most affect the reliability.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.154-159
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• 2004

In this study, in order to perform more efficiently reliability design and integrity assessment of structural members, the relational database management program on the engineering plastics was constructed. This program contained 476 grades for 14 kinds of the engineering plastics and was developed using MS-access and MS-visualbasic. This program consists of 3 modules; search condition, probabilistic characteristics of material property, evaluation of P-S-N curve. We perform fatigue test for probabilistic durability analysis and this results input the database program to estimate P-S-N.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제51권9호
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• pp.425-432
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• 2002

This Paper illustrates a method for evaluating nodal probabilistic production cost using the CMELDC. A new method for constructing CMELDC(CoMposite Power System Equivalent Load Duration Curve) has been developed by authors. The CMELDC can be obtained by convolution integral processing between the probability distribution functions of the fictitious generators outage capacity and the load duration curves at each load point. In general, if complex operating conditions are involved and/or the number of severe events is relatively large, Monte Carlo methods are more efficient. Because of that reason, Monte Carlo Methods are applied for the construction of CMELDC in this study. And IEEE-RTS 24 buses model is used as our case study with satisfactory results.