• Title/Summary/Keyword: Probabilistic reliability evaluation

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Incorporating Station Related Aging Failures in Bulk System Reliability Analysis

  • Billinton Roy;Yang Hua
    • KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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    • v.5A no.4
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    • pp.322-330
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    • 2005
  • This paper proposes methods to incorporate station related aging failures in composite system reliability assessment. Aging failures of station components, such as circuit breakers and bus bars, are a major concern in composite power system planning and operation as an increasing number of station components approach the wear-out phase. This paper presents probabilistic models for circuit breakers involving aging failures and relevant evaluation techniques to examine the effects of station related aging outages. The technique developed to incorporate station related aging failures are illustrated by application to a small composite test system. The paper illustrates the effects of circuit breaker aging outages on bulk system reliability evaluation and examines the relative effects of variations in component age. System sensitivity analysis is illustrated by varying selected component parameters. The results show the implications of including component aging failure considerations in the overall analysis of a composite system.

A Study on Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation of Power System Considering Wind Turbine Generators (풍력발전기를 고려한 전력계통의 확률론적인 신뢰도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jeong-Je;Wu, Liang;Choi, Jae-Seok;Moon, Seung-Il
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.9
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    • pp.1491-1499
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents a study on reliability evaluation of a power system considering wind turbine generators (WTG) with multi-state. Renewable energy resources such as wind, wave, solar, micro hydro, tidal and biomass etc. are becoming importance stage by stage because of considering effect of the environment. Wind energy is one of the most successful sources of renewable energy for the production of electrical energy. But, reliability evaluation of generating system with wind energy resources is a complex process. While the wind turbine generators can not modelled as two-state model as like as conventional generators, they should be modelled as multi-state model due to wind speed random variation. The methodology for obtaining reliability evaluation index of wind turbine generators is different from it of the conventional generators. A method for making outage capacity probability table of WTG for reliability is proposed in this paper. The detail process is presented using case study of simple system.

A Basic Study on Reliability Evaluation using METRIS for Long Term Expansion Planning of Transmission System (송전개통망의 장기확충계획수립을 위한 METRIS를 이용한 신뢰도 평가에 관한 기초연구)

  • Kang, Sung-Rok;Tinh, Tran Trung;Chei, Jae-Seok;Cha, Jun-Min;Choo, Jin-Boo;Jeon, Dong-Hun;Moon, Seung-Pil
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2002.11b
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    • pp.361-364
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    • 2002
  • The paper presents a basic study on reliability evaluation using METRIS for long term expansion planning of transmission system. The main frame of methodelogy of the reliability evaluation of a transmission system in the METRIS is based on evaluation philosophy that the reliability level of a transmission system is equal to difference between the reliability level of HLII and that of HLI. While basic general theory of probabilistic reliability evaluation of transmission system has been presented, the GUI characteristics of input/out data system of METRIS have been demonstrated by the RBTS case study on METRIS.

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A Study on Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation of Transmission System (송전계통의 확률론적 신뢰도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, S.R.;Kim, K.H.;Tinh, T.T.;Choi, J.S.;Jeon, D.H.;Lee, Y.T.;Moon, S.P.;Choo, J.B.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.07a
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    • pp.42-45
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents a method for assessing reliability indices of transmission system. Because successful operation of electric power under the deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management, quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important. The key point idea is based on that the reliability level of transmission system is equal to reliability level difference of between composite power system(HLII) and generation system(HLI). It is the reason that composite power system includes uncertainties and capacity limit of transmission lines. The practicality and effectiveness of this methodology are illustrated by the case study using the KEPCO size system.

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Derating Design for Improving System Reliability by Using a Probabilistic Approach (시스템 신뢰성 향상을 위한 확률적 부하경감설계)

  • Son, Young-Kap
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.743-749
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    • 2010
  • This paper proposes a derating design method for improving system reliability by using a probabilistic approach. In the proposed design, the focus is upon system levels in determining derated levels of stresses such as temperature and current, unlike recent design approaches that focus on component levels. System reliability is evaluated using component reliability metrics that are given as functions of time and unknown stresses; this evaluation is based on a series system-reliability model. The variation in stress, which was not considered in previous derating designs, is introduced in the present design to account for the uncertainty in both environmental and operating conditions at the customer' hands. Optimization problems for system reliability improvement are formulated and solved using FORM to determine the best derating design. An example of a derating design for an electrical system shows the details of the proposed method and its applicability to systems design for reliability improvement.

Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Cable-Stayed Bridge Using Measured Data (계측데이터를 이용한 사장교의 확률적 안전도 분석)

  • Yoon, Man-Geun;Cho, Hyo-Nam
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, through the study and consideration of the recently prominent monitoring of cable stayed-bridge, practical but reasonable suggested for the evaluation of the probabilistic safety of the bridges using probable measured data from monitoring measurement system. It is shown in the paper that the live load effects can be evaluated using measured data of cable-stayed bridge and this the realistic probabilistic safety of the cable-stayed bridge could be assessed in term of element reliability and system reliability. As a practical method for the evalution of the system reliability of system cable-stayed bridges partial ETA method is uesd, which can find the critical failure path including combined failure modes of cable, deck and pylon. Compared with the conventional safety analysis method, the propsed approach may be considered as the practical method that shows the considerably actual and reasonable results the system redundancy of the structure.

Micro-Grids Reliability Enhancement Under Different Penetration Levels of Hybrid DG Units

  • Essam, M.;Atwa, Y.M.;El-Saadany, Ehab F.;Conti, Stefania;Rizzo, Santi Agatino
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.1407-1418
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    • 2018
  • Novel mechanism of customized adequacy formulation is proposed in order to enhance micro grids system reliability. The mechanism accounts for 2-levles of load curtailment, and is mainly based on probabilistic load profile and hybrid Distributed Generation (DG) units modeling. The two load curtailments are needed in order to ensure adequate technical constraints at steady state condition during islanding mode of operation. The effectiveness of the proposed formulation has been verified using system independent analytical expressions for the evaluation of both reliability and Expected Energy Not Served (EENS) indices. The evaluation has examined the impact of different penetration levels of Hybrid DG Units in case study islands. Results show the enhancement of the overall distribution system reliability and the recommended conditions for successful islanding mode of operation.

Development of Methods to lmprove the Reliability of ELECTRE (복합기준 평가방법 ELECTRE의 신뢰도 증진을 위한 방안 연구)

  • 이인성
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.23-38
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    • 1995
  • ELEECTRE is a less demanding and potentially Bffective multiattribute evaluation method for pre-editing proeedure. The method, however, was developed based on probabilistic mathematicsand its reliability has never'been emprieally tested. This article examined the reliability of ELECTRo under various conditions of linear and non-linear utility func- tions using a Monte-Carlo shnulation, and found the method eausea a considerably high rate of error. To enhance the reliability of ELECTRE, two ways of modi(ication - adjust- ment of threshold values of concordance and discordance matrices, and adjustment of the required nunlber of probably-dominant alternatives to eliminate a probably-dominated alternative - were suggested, and their effctiveness was also tesed by a Monte-Carlo simulation. The simulation result chows that these modifications cponsiderably improve the reliability of ELECTRE, and yet maintain a reasonably high level of efficiency. Through these modifications, ELECTRE can be used as an efficient and feliable pre-editing method. Ways to implement ELECTRE in the construction of plainning decision support systens were discussed. The impli(els combination of this method and other multiattribute evaluation methods will help to create more effective decision suport systems.

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Sensitivity Analysis of Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation of KEPCO System Using TRELSS (TRELSS를 이용한 한전계통의 확률론적 신뢰도 평가의 감도해석)

  • Tran, T.T.;Kwon, J.J.;Choi, J.S.;Jeon, D.H.;Park, Y.S.;Han, G.N.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.11b
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    • pp.234-236
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    • 2005
  • The importance and necessity conducting studios on grid reliability evaluation have been increasingly important In recent years due to the number of black-out events occurring through in the world. Quantity evaluation of transmission system reliability is very important in a competitive electricity environment. The reason is that the successful operation of electric power under a deregulated electricity market depends on transmission system reliability management. Also in Korea it takes places. The results of many case studios fer the KEPCO system using the Transmission Reliability Evaluation for Large-Scale Systems (TRELSS) Version 6_2, a program developed by EPRI are introduced in this paper. Some sensitivity analysis has been Included in case study. This paper suggests that the some Important input parameters of the TRELSS can be determined optimally from this sensitivity analysis fer high reliability level operation of a system.

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SYSTEM RELIABILITY-BASED EVALUATION OF BRIDGE SYSTEM REDUNDANCY AND STRENGTH (체계신뢰성에 기초한 교량의 시스템여용성 및 저항강도 평가)

  • 조효남;이승재;임종권
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1993.10a
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    • pp.240-247
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    • 1993
  • The precise prediction of reserved carrying capacity of bridge as a system is extremely difficult especially when the bridges are highly redundant and significantly deteriorated or damaged. This paper is intended to propose a new approach for the evaluation of reserved system carrying capacity of bridges in terms of equivalent system-strength, which may be defined as a bridge system-strength corresponding to the system reliability of the bridge. This can be derived from an inverse process based on the concept of FOSM form of system reliability index. It may be emphasized that this approach is very useful for the evaluation of the deterministic system redundancy and reserve strength which are measured in terms of either probabilistic system redundancy factor and reserve factor or deterministic system redundancy factor and reserve factor. The system reliability of bridges is formulated as a parallel-series model obtained from the FAM(Failure Mode Approach) based on the major failure mechanisms. AFOSM and IST methods are used for the reliability analysis of the proposed models. The proposed approach and method for the system redundancy and reserve safety/strength are applied to the safety assessment of actual RC and steel box-girder bridges. The results of the evaluation of reserved system safety or bridge system-strength in terms of the system redundancy and the system safety/strength are significantly different from those of element reliability-based or conventional methods.

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