• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.263-269
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• 2017

'Goal Model' is core knowledge of 'Autonomic Control System' suggested to minimize human interference in system management. 'Autonomic Control System' performs 'Monitoring-Analysis-Plan-Execution', that is the four step of 'Autonomic Control', based on 'Goal Model'. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify achievement ratio of 'Goal Model' of target system. Thus, this paper present 'Probabilistic Evaluation of Goal Model' for methodology how to quantify achievement ratio of 'Goal Model'. It comprises 3-steps including 'Goal modeling and weighting', 'Goal model monitoring', 'Goal model evaluation and analysis'. Through these research, we provide core knowledge for 'Autonomic Control system' and it is possible to increase the reliability of system by evaluating 'Goal model' with applying weight. As case study, we apply 'Goal model' to a 'Smart IoT Kit' and we demonstrate the validity of the suggested research.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.54-59
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• 2007

Recently, Apartment Reconstruction Projects are performing only with the basis of profitability without establishing either certain criteria or standard guideline. In addition, the profitability information contained in a disposal plan tends to be considered as a fixed value, and it is frequently changeable because reconstruction projects have such a long time to complete and many participants with respective interests. As mentioned above, the new approach needs to be developed which covers the limitation of the unvaried one. Consequently, this study focuses on the probability approach considering not only variances that affect the profit, but the relationship between profit and risk, and then is modeling. This study is anticipated to improve the reliability and accuracy of expected value as well as apply to the decision making criteria quantitively about potentially hidden risks in that projects.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.66 no.1
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• pp.49-66
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• 2024

Extreme rainfall will become intense due to climate change, increasing inundation risk to agricultural land. Hydrological and hydraulic simulations for the entire watershed were conducted to analyze the impact of climate change. Rainfall data was collected based on past weather observation and SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway)5-8.5 climate change scenarios. Simulation for flood volume, reservoir operation, river level, and inundation of agricultural land was conducted through K-HAS (KRC Hydraulics & Hydrology Analysis System) and HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System). Various scenarios were selected, encompassing different periods of rainfall data, including the observed period (1973-2022), near-term future (2021-2050), mid-term future (2051-2080), and long-term future (2081-2100), in addition to probabilistic precipitation events with return periods of 20 years and 100 years. The inundation area of the Aho-Buin district was visualized through GIS (Geographic Information System) based on the results of the flooding analysis. The probabilistic precipitation of climate change scenarios was calculated higher than that of past observations, which affected the increase in reservoir inflow, river level, inundation time, and inundation area. The inundation area and inundation time were higher in the 100-year frequency. Inundation risk was high in the order of long-term future, near-term future, mid-term future, and observed period. It was also shown that the Aho and Buin districts were vulnerable to inundation. These results are expected to be used as fundamental data for assessing the risk of flooding for agricultural land and downstream watersheds under climate change, guiding drainage improvement projects, and making flood risk maps.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.67 no.1
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• pp.8-15
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• 2018

New methodology for probabilistic reliability based grid expansion planning of HVDC in power system including Wind Turbine Generators(WTG) is developed in this paper. This problem is focused on scenario based optimal selection technique to decide best connection bus of new transmission lines of HVDC in view point of adequacy reliability in power system including WTG. This requires two kinds of modeling and simulation for reliability evaluation. One is how is reliability evaluation model and simulation of WTG. Another is to develop a failure model of HVDC. First, reliability evaluation of power system including WTG needs multi-state simulation methodology because of intermittent characteristics of wind speed and nonlinear generation curve of WTG. Reliability methodology of power system including WTG has already been developed with considering multi-state simulation over the years in the world. The multi-state model already developed by authors is used for WTG reliability simulation in this study. Second, the power system including HVDC includes AC/DC converter and DC/AC inverter substation. The substation is composed of a lot of thyristor devices, in which devices have possibility of failure occurrence in potential. Failure model of AC/DC converter and DC/AC inverter substation in order to simulate HVDC reliability is newly proposed in this paper. Furthermore, this problem should be formulated in hierarchical level II(HLII) reliability evaluation because of best bus choice problem for connecting new HVDC and transmission lines consideration. HLII reliability simulation technique is not simple but difficult and complex. CmRel program, which is adequacy reliability evaluation program developed by authors, is extended and developed for this study. Using proposed method, new HVDC connected bus point is able to be decided at best reliability level successfully. Methodology proposed in this paper is applied to small sized model power system.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.535-544
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• 2017

This paper analyzes the relations between design errors, prevented by building information modeling (BIM)-based design validation, and their impacts in order to identify critical consideration factors for implementing BIM-based design validation in architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) projects. More than 800 design errors detected by BIM-based design validation in two BIM-based projects in South Korea are categorized according to their causes (illogical error, discrepancy, and missing item) and work types (structure, architecture, and mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP)). The probabilistic relations among the independent variables, including the causes and work types of design errors, and the dependent variables, including the project delays, cost overruns, low quality, and rework generation that can be caused by these errors, are analyzed using logistic regression. The characteristics of each design error are analyzed by means of face-to-face interviews with practitioners. According to the results, the impacts of design error causes in predicting the probability values of project delays, cost overruns, low quality, and rework generation were statistically meaningful.

• 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.02a
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• pp.173-177
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• 2009

With the advent of light-weight daily physiological signal monitoring sensors, intelligent inference and analysis method for physiological signal monitoring application, commercialized products and services are released. However, practical constraints still remain for daily physiological signal monitoring. Most devices provide rough health check function and analyze with randomly sampled measurements. In this work, we propose the probabilistic modeling of physiological signal analysis. This model represent the relationship between previous user measurement (history), other group`s type, model and current observation. From the experiment, we found that the personalized analysis with long term regular data shows reliable result and reduces the analyzing errors. In addition, participants agree that the personalized analysis shows reliable and adaptive information than other standard analysis method.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.69-87
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• 2014

This paper suggests a conditional simulation framework based on multiple data transformations for geostatistical simulation of compositional data. First, log-ratio transformation is applied to original compositional data in order to apply conventional statistical methodologies. As for the next transformations that follow, minimum/maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF) and indicator transformations are sequentially applied. MAF transformation is applied to generate independent new variables and as a result, an independent simulation of individual variables can be applied. Indicator transformation is also applied to non-parametric conditional cumulative distribution function modeling of variables that do not follow multi-Gaussian random function models. Finally, inverse transformations are applied in the reverse order of those transformations that are applied. A case study with surface sediment compositions in tidal flats is carried out to illustrate the applicability of the presented simulation framework. All simulation results satisfied the constraints of compositional data and reproduced well the statistical characteristics of the sample data. Through surface sediment classification based on multiple simulation results of compositions, the probabilistic evaluation of classification results was possible, an evaluation unavailable in a conventional kriging approach. Therefore, it is expected that the presented simulation framework can be effectively applied to geostatistical simulation of various compositional data.

• The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.207-214
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• 2020

Nowadays, the use of smart phones and various electronic devices is increasing, the Internet and SNS are activated, and we live in the flood of information. The amount of information has grown exponentially, making it difficult to look at a lot of information, and more and more people want to see only key keywords in a document, and the importance of research to extract topics that are the core of information is increasing. In addition, it is also an important issue to extract the topic and compare it with the past to infer the current trend. Topic modeling techniques can be used to extract topics from a large volume of documents, and these extracted topics can be used in various fields such as trend prediction and data analysis. In this paper, we inquire the topic of the three-year papers of 2016, 2017, and 2018 in the field of computing using the LDA algorithm, one of Probabilistic Topic Model Techniques, in order to analyze the rapidly changing trends and keep pace with the times. Then we analyze trends and flows of research.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.11 no.8
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• pp.3984-4005
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• 2017

Image recognition has become an increasingly important topic for its wide application. It is highly challenging when facing to large-scale database with large variance. The recognition systems rely on a key component, i.e. the low-level feature or the learned mid-level feature. The recognition performance can be potentially improved if the data distribution information is exploited using a more sophisticated way, which usually a function over hidden variable, model parameter and observed data. These methods are called generative score space. In this paper, we propose a discriminative extension for the existing generative score space methods, which exploits class label when deriving score functions for image recognition task. Specifically, we first extend the regular generative models to class conditional models over both observed variable and class label. Then, we derive the mid-level feature mapping from the extended models. At last, the derived feature mapping is embedded into a discriminative classifier for image recognition. The advantages of our proposed approach are two folds. First, the resulted methods take simple and intuitive forms which are weighted versions of existing methods, benefitting from the Bayesian inference of class label. Second, the probabilistic generative modeling allows us to exploit hidden information and is well adapt to data distribution. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we cooperate our discriminative extension with three generative models for image recognition task. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.55-63
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• 2019

In engineering problems, many random variables have correlation, and the correlation of input random variables has a great influence on reliability analysis results of the mechanical systems. However, correlated variables are often treated as independent variables or modeled by specific parametric joint distributions due to difficulty in modeling joint distributions. Especially, when there are insufficient correlated data, it becomes more difficult to correctly model the joint distribution. In this study, multivariate kernel density estimation with bounded data is proposed to estimate various types of joint distributions with highly nonlinearity. Since it combines given data with bounded data, which are generated from confidence intervals of uniform distribution parameters for given data, it is less sensitive to data quality and number of data. Thus, it yields conservative statistical modeling and reliability analysis results, and its performance is verified through statistical simulation and engineering examples.