• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
• /
• 1991.10a
• /
• pp.57-62
• /
• 1991

For the purpose of developing the method for efficiently calculating the design sensitivity and the reliability for the complicated structure such as ship structure, the probabilistic finite element method is introduced to formulate the deterministic design sensitivity analysis method and incorporated with the second moment reliability methods such as MVFOSM, AFOSM and SORM. Also, the probabilistic design sensitivity analysis needed in the reliability-based design is performed. The reliability analysis is carried out for the initial yielding failure, in which the derivative derived in the deterministic desin sensitivity is used. The present PFEM-based reliability method shows good agreement with Monte Carlo method in terms with the variance of response and the associated probability of failure even at the first or first few iteration steps. The probabilistic design sensitivity analysis evaluates explicitly the contribution of each random variable to probability of failure. Further, the reliability index variation can be easily predicted by the variation of the mean and the variance of the random variables.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Machine Tool Engineers
• /
• v.15 no.5
• /
• pp.21-28
• /
• 2006

Vibration of a non-linear system with multiple degrees of freedom under random parametric excitations was evaluated by probabilistic method. The non-linear characteristic terms of system structure were quasi-linearized and excitation terms were remained as they were. An analytical method where the expectation values of square mean of error was minimized was used. The numerical results were compared with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation. A linear congruential generator and Box-Muller method were used in Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison showed the results by probabilistic method agreed well with those by Monte Carlo simulation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
• /
• 2006.03a
• /
• pp.1148-1154
• /
• 2006

Composite discharge capacity tests and smear effect tests are carried out to estimate the parameters for the reliability-based design of vertical drain method. Also the probabilistic and deterministic solutions of radial consolidation theory are presented. It compared to the result of reliability-based design and that of deterministic design using the tested and estimated parameters. The results indicated that the drain spacing is larger the deterministic method than the probabilistic method because the former is not considered the uncertainties in the properties of soil. The divergence of methods is dependent on the probability of achieving target degree of consolidation by a given time and the coefficient of variation(COV) of the coefficient of horizontal consolidation$(c_h)$.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
• /
• v.52 no.1
• /
• pp.9-16
• /
• 2003

In this paper, we propose a reliability evaluation method considering the momentary interruptions of power distribution systems. The results of research are concentrated on two parts. One is the analytic and probabilistic reliability evaluation of power distribution system considering the momentary interruptions and the other is the reliability cost evaluation that unifies the cost of sustained and momentary interruptions. This proposed reliability cost evaluation methodology is also divided into the analytic and probabilistic approach and the time sequential Monte Carlo method is used for the probabilistic method. The proposed methods are tested using the modified RBTS (Roy Billinton Test System) form and historical reliability data of KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) system. Through the case studies, it is verified that the proposed reliability evaluation and its cost/worth assessment methodologies can be applied to the actual reliability studies.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
• /
• 2005.06a
• /
• pp.1682-1685
• /
• 2005

System algorithms estimated by deterministic input may occur the error between predicted and actual output. Especially, actual system can't predict the exact outputs due to uncertainty and tolerance of input parameters. A single output to a set of inputs has a limited value without the variation. Hence, we should consider various scatters caused by the load assessment, material characteristics, stress analysis and manufacturing methods in order to perform the robust design or estimate the reliability of structure. The system design with uncertainty should perform the probabilistic structural optimization with the statistical response and the reliability. This method calculated the probability distributions of the characteristics such as stress by combining stress analysis, response surface methodology and Monte-Carlo Method and got the probabilistic sensitivity. The sensitivity of structural response with respect to inconstant design variables was estimated by fracture probability. Therefore, this paper proposed the probabilistic reliability design method for fracture of uncorved freight end beam and the design criteria by fracture probability.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.29 no.3
• /
• pp.41-50
• /
• 2013

There always exists uncertainty which is mainly due to uncertainty of the evaluation of a geotechnical structure at a site. The uncertainty in the geotechnical analysis can be considered in the probabilistic analysis using the Monte Carlo Simulation. It needs various soil profiles which could be possible at the target site. In this study, a new method is proposed to generate soil profiles which are probable at the site. The proposed method analyzes a structure of a site and generates one dimensional soil profiles for a probabilistic analysis. Through the field application, the applicability of the prosed method was shown.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
• /
• v.22 no.10 s.175
• /
• pp.137-143
• /
• 2005

The integrity of steam generator tubes in nuclear power plant should be maintained sufficiently during operation. For sake of this, complicated assessment procedures are required such as fracture mechanics analysis, etc. The integrity assessment of tubes has been performed by using conventional deterministic approaches while there are many uncertainties to carry out a rational evaluation. In this respect, probabilistic integrity assessment is considered as an alternative method for integrity assessment. The objectives of this study are to develop an integrity assessment system based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and to predict the failure probability of steam generator tubes containing an axial through-wall crack. The developed integrity assessment system consists of three evaluation modules, which apply first order reliability method, second order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method, respectively. The system has been applied to predict failure probability of steam generator tubes and the estimation results showed a promising applicability of the probabilistic integrity assessment system.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• v.50 no.8
• /
• pp.1234-1245
• /
• 2018

The risk of multi-unit nuclear power plants (NPPs) at a site has received considerable critical attention recently. However, current probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) procedures and computer code do not support multi-unit PSA because the traditional PSA structure is mostly used for the quantification of single-unit NPP risk. In this study, the main purpose is to develop a multi-unit Level 2 PSA method and apply it to full-power operating six-unit OPR1000. Multi-unit Level 2 PSA method consists of three steps: (1) development of single-unit Level 2 PSA; (2) extracting the mapping data from plant damage state to source term category; and (3) combining multi-unit Level 1 PSA results and mapping fractions. By applying developed multi-unit Level 2 PSA method into six-unit OPR1000, site containment failure probabilities in case of loss of ultimate heat sink, loss of off-site power, tsunami, and seismic event were quantified.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
• /
• v.89 no.3
• /
• pp.309-321
• /
• 2024

In this paper, the effect of semi-rigid connections on the stability bearing capacity of cross-bracings in steel tubular transmission towers is investigated. Herein, a prediction method based on the hybrid model which is a combination of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and backpropagation neural network (BPNN) is proposed to accurately predict the stability bearing capacity of cross-bracings with semi-rigid connections and to efficiently conduct its probabilistic assessment. Firstly, the establishment of the finite element (FE) model of cross-bracings with semi-rigid connections is developed on the basis of the development of the mechanical model. Then, a dataset of 7425 samples generated by the FE model is used to train and test the PSO-BPNN model, and the accuracy of the proposed method is evaluated. Finally, the probabilistic assessment for the stability bearing capacity of cross-bracings with semi-rigid connections is conducted based on the proposed method and the Monte Carlo simulation, in which the geometric and material properties including the outer diameter and thickness of cross-sections and the yield strength of steel are considered as random variables. The results indicate that the proposed method based on the PSO-BPNN model has high accuracy in predicting the stability bearing capacity of cross-bracings with semi-rigid connections. Meanwhile, the semi-rigid connections could enhance the stability bearing capacity of cross-bracings and the reliability of cross-bracings would significantly increase after considering semi-rigid connections.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.22 no.11
• /
• pp.101-111
• /
• 2006

Slope stability analysis is a geotechnical engineering problem characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of them are connected to the variability of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure of probabilistic analysis of slope stability is presented based on Spencer's method of slices. The deterministic analysis is extended to a probabilistic approach that accounts fur the uncertainties and spatial variation of the soil parameters. The procedure is based on the first-order reliability method to compute the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte-Carlo Simulation. A probabilistic stability assessment was performed to obtain the variation of failure probability with the variation of soil parameters in homogeneous and layered slopes as an example. The examples give insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to the slope stability and show the impact of the spatial variability of soil properties on the outcome of a probabilistic assessment.