Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회논문집)

Korean Geotechnical Society (한국지반공학회)
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A Study on the Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Slopes

확률론적 사면안정 해석기법에 관한 연구

  • Published : 2006.11.30
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Abstract

Slope stability analysis is a geotechnical engineering problem characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of them are connected to the variability of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure of probabilistic analysis of slope stability is presented based on Spencer's method of slices. The deterministic analysis is extended to a probabilistic approach that accounts fur the uncertainties and spatial variation of the soil parameters. The procedure is based on the first-order reliability method to compute the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte-Carlo Simulation. A probabilistic stability assessment was performed to obtain the variation of failure probability with the variation of soil parameters in homogeneous and layered slopes as an example. The examples give insight into the application of uncertainty treatment to the slope stability and show the impact of the spatial variability of soil properties on the outcome of a probabilistic assessment.

사면안정해석은 많은 불확실한 요인을 내포하는 지반공학적 문제이다. 이러한 불확실성 중 일부는 해석 수행과정에 필요한 지반 물성의 변동성과관련이 있다 본 연구에서는 확률론적 사면안정 해석기법을 개발하기 위하여 절편법의 일종인 Spencer의 방법을 바탕으로 한 결정론적 해석방법을 지반정수의 불확실성과 공간적 변동성을 고려할 수 있도록 확장하였다. 제안된 방법은 Hasofer-Lind의 신뢰지수를 구하는 일차신뢰도법과 Monte-Carlo Simulation을 바탕으로 한다. 지반정수의 변화에 따른 파괴확률의 변화를 구하기 위해 단일지층과 2층 지반의 사면에 대한 확률론적 사면안정 해석을 수행하였다. 예제의 결과는 사면안정해석에 대한 지반의 불확실성을 고려할 수 있는 관점을 제시하며 확률론적 해석결과에 미치는 지반정수의 공간적 변동성의 영향을 보여준다.

Keywords

References

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