• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.684-690
• /
• 2007

We describe our method to predict the direction of conditional probabilistic dependencies between clusters of random variables. Selected variables called 'gateway variables' are used to predict the conditional probabilistic dependency relations between clusters. The direction of conditional probabilistic dependencies between clusters are predicted by finding directed acyclic graph (DAG)-shaped dependency structure between the gateway variables. We show that our method shows meaningful prediction results in determining directions of conditional probabilistic dependencies between clusters.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.17 no.11
• /
• pp.93-101
• /
• 2019

Purpose: Blockchain technology suggests ways to solve the problems in the existing industry. Among them, Cryptocurrency system, which is an element of Blockchain technology, is a very important factor for operating Blockchain. While Blockchain cryptocurrency has attracted attention, studies on cryptocurrency prices have been mainly conducted, however previous studies mainly conducted on Bitcoin prices. On the other hand, in the context of the creation and trading of various cryptocurrencies based on the Blockchain system, little research has been done on cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. Hence, this study attempts to find variables related to the prices of Dash, Litecoin, and Monero cryptocurrencies using machine learning techniques. We also attempt to find differences in the variables related to the prices for each cryptocurrencies and to examine machine learning techniques that can provide better performance. Research design, data, and methodology: This study performed Dash, Litecoin, and Monero price prediction analysis of cryptocurrency using Blockchain information and machine learning techniques. We employed number of transactions in Blockchain, amount of generated cryptocurrency, transaction fees, number of activity accounts in Blockchain, Block creation difficulty, block size, umber of created blocks as independent variables. This study tried to ensure the reliability of the analysis results through 10-fold cross validation. Blockchain information was hierarchically added for price prediction, and the analysis result was measured as RMSE and MAPE. Results: The analysis shows that the prices of Dash, Litecoin and Monero cryptocurrency are related to Blockchain information. Also, we found that different Blockchain information improves the analysis results for each cryptocurrency. In addition, this study found that the neural network machine learning technique provides better analysis results than support-vector machine in predicting cryptocurrency prices. Conclusion: This study concludes that the information of Blockchain should be considered for the prediction of the price of Dash, Litecoin, and Monero cryptocurrency. It also suggests that Blockchain information related to the price of cryptocurrency differs depending on the type of cryptocurrency. We suggest that future research on various types of cryptocurrencies is needed. The findings of this study can provide a theoretical basis for future cryptocurrency research in distribution management.

• KIEAE Journal
• /
• v.17 no.5
• /
• pp.69-76
• /
• 2017

Purpose: This study aimed at developing an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for predicting the amount of cooling energy consumption of the variable refrigerant flow (VRF) cooling system by the different set-points of the control variables, such as supply air temperature of air handling unit (AHU), condenser fluid temperature, condenser fluid pressure, and refrigerant evaporation temperature. Applying the predicted results for the different set-points, the control algorithm, which embedded the ANN model, will determine the most energy efficient control strategy. Method: The ANN model was developed and tested its prediction accuracy by using matrix laboratory (MATLAB) and its neural network toolbox. The field data sets were collected for the model training and performance evaluation. For completing the prediction model, three major steps were conducted - i) initial model development including input variable selection, ii) model optimization, and iii) performance evaluation. Result: Eight meaningful input variables were selected in the initial model development such as outdoor temperature, outdoor humidity, indoor temperature, cooling load of the previous cycle, supply air temperature of AHU, condenser fluid temperature, condenser fluid pressure, and refrigerant evaporation temperature. The initial model was optimized to have 2 hidden layers with 15 hidden neurons each, 0.3 learning rate, and 0.3 momentum. The optimized model proved its prediction accuracy with stable prediction results.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.24 no.6
• /
• pp.995-1006
• /
• 2011

A time series can be decomposed into simple components with a multiscale method. Empirical mode decomposition(EMD) is a recently invented multiscale method in Huang et al. (1998). It is natural to apply a classical prediction method such a vector autoregressive(AR) model to the obtained simple components instead of the original time series; in addition, a prediction procedure combining a classical prediction model to EMD and Hilbert spectrum is proposed in Kim et al. (2008). In this paper, we suggest to adopt principal component analysis(PCA) to the prediction procedure that enables the efficient selection of input variables among obtained components by EMD. We discuss the utility of adopting PCA in the prediction procedure based on EMD and Hilbert spectrum and analyze the daily worm account data by the proposed PCA adopted prediction method.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.17-36
• /
• 2021

Purpose - This study provides useful information to stakeholders by forecasting the tramp shipping market, which is a completely competitive market and has a huge fluctuation in freight rates due to low barriers to entry. Moreover, this study provides the most effective parameters for Baltic Dry Index (BDI) prediction and an optimal model by analyzing and comparing deep learning models such as the artificial neural network (ANN), recurrent neural network (RNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM). Design/methodology - This study uses various data models based on big data. The deep learning models considered are specialized for time series models. This study includes three perspectives to verify useful models in time series data by comparing prediction accuracy according to the selection of external variables and comparison between models. Findings - The BDI research reflecting the latest trends since 2015, using weekly data from 1995 to 2019 (25 years), is employed in this study. Additionally, we tried finding the best combination of BDI forecasts through the input of external factors such as supply, demand, raw materials, and economic aspects. Moreover, the combination of various unpredictable external variables and the fundamentals of supply and demand have sought to increase BDI prediction accuracy. Originality/value - Unlike previous studies, BDI forecasts reflect the latest stabilizing trends since 2015. Additionally, we look at the variation of the model's predictive accuracy according to the input of statistically validated variables. Moreover, we want to find the optimal model that minimizes the error value according to the parameter adjustment in the ANN model. Thus, this study helps future shipping stakeholders make decisions through BDI forecasts.

• The Journal of Bigdata
• /
• v.3 no.2
• /
• pp.101-112
• /
• 2018

The purpose of the study is to predict the number of police calls using neural network which is one of the machine learning and negative binomial regression, by using the data of 112 police calls received from Chungnam Provincial Police Agency from June 2016 to May 2017. The variables which may affect the police calls have been selected for developing the prediction model : time, holiday, the day before holiday, season, temperature, precipitation, wind speed, jurisdictional area, population, the number of foreigners, single house rate and other house rate. Some variables show positive correlation, and others negative one. The comparison of the methods can be summarized as follows. Neural network has correlation coefficient of 0.7702 between predicted and actual values with RMSE 2.557. Negative binomial regression on the other hand shows correlation coefficient of 0.7158 with RMSE 2.831. Neural network has low interpretability, but an excellent predictability compared with the negative binomial regression. Based on the prediction model, the police agency can do the optimal manpower allocation for given values in the selected variables.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
• /
• v.19 no.2
• /
• pp.383-388
• /
• 2024

This paper is a study to derive the predicted value of power generation based on the photovoltaic power generation data measured in Jeollanam-do, South Korea. Multivariate variables such as direct current, alternating current, and environmental data were measured in the inverter to measure the amount of power generation, and pre-processing was performed to ensure the stability and reliability of the measured values. Correlation analysis used only data with high correlation with power generation in time series data for prediction using partial autocorrelation function (PACF). Deep learning models were used to measure the amount of power generation to predict the amount of photovoltaic power generation, and the results of correlation analysis of each multivariate variable were used to increase the prediction accuracy. Learning using refined data was more stable than when existing data were used as it was, and the solar power generation prediction algorithm was improved by using only highly correlated variables among multivariate variables by reflecting the correlation analysis results.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.19-29
• /
• 2008

The main purpose of this study is to introduce Hauer's(2004) approach that overcomes current accident prediction models' limitation and to apply this approach to Korean situation using fatal accident data on motorways. After developing accident prediction models according to this approach, it is found that AADT and vertical grade could improve fitness of the model, whereas a radius of roads is not related to the number of accidents. The advantage of Hauer's approach is to reduce possibility to eliminate critical variables and to keep uncritical variables when we consider many variables to develop accident prediction models.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2020

In this study, study on the internal ballistic analysis method for single-chamber dual-thrust rocket motors meeting a dual-thrust profile requirement by tailoring the grain burning area is presented. The analysis method, which can acquire variables required for the performance prediction, considering gradual change of burning rate correction factor and specific impulse in the transition phase, is proposed. Improvements compared to the analysis method in the previous study, which do not consider change in the transition phase, are verified through comparison between the newly proposed method and the method in the previous study. Internal ballistic variables are obtained for four different ground firing test conditions using the proposed method, and the performance prediction for each condition is conducted using these variables. These prediction results and the ground test data are in good agreement, so it is confirmed that the performance prediction of dual-thrust motors with same design geometries based on the proposed analysis method is available.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
• /
• v.13 no.2
• /
• pp.1-21
• /
• 1983

The purposes of this study were to(a) develop theoretical modifications of the extended gate control theory of pain using Fishbein's model and（b) test the efficacy of these modifications. Attitude, social subjective norm, personal subjective norm, habit and state anxiety were operationalized to represent internal stimuli for the cognitive-evaluative and motivational-affective dimensions of the theory. Pain expression was operationalized as sensory and affective responses to pain, and pain endurance. Sixty-two female nurses from 20 to 50 years of age participated. A semantic differential scale measured attitude and motivations to comply; a Likerty-type scale measured personal and social norms and habit. Spielberger's STAI measured state anxiety, Pain was produced using a modified submaximum effort tourniquet technique. Pair expression was measured using ratio scales of sensory intensity and unpleasantness developed by Gracely and his associates. Pain endurance was measured by subtracting time of pain threshold from pain tolerance. The first hypothesis examining whether pain endurance would be more significantly related to the affective response than to the sensory response was net rejected. Four remaining hypotheses, testing the ability of the five variables to predict the sensory and affective responses were not rejected. However, the habit of pain expression and the attitude toward pain expression contributed to the prediction of both sensory and affective responses to pain. The interaction between the cognitive-evaluative and the sensory-discriminative dimensions and the interaction between the cognitive-evaluative and motivational-affective dimensions were partially supported by the data from these two variables. The interaction between the motivational-affective and the sensory-discriminative dimensions was also supported by the relationship of sensory to affective responses. The variables which did not significantly predict pain expression appeared to have potential for prediction. Revision and testing of the tools for better reliability, validity, and clinical usuability are needed. The study contributed to theory building. The identification of variables which pre-dict pain behavior must occur before effective nursing interventions can be developed.