• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction interval

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Predictions for Progressively Type-II Censored Failure Times from the Half Triangle Distribution

  • Seo, Jung-In;Kang, Suk-Bok
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.93-103
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    • 2014
  • This paper deals with the problem of predicting censored data in a half triangle distribution with an unknown parameter based on progressively Type-II censored samples. We derive maximum likelihood predictors and some approximate maximum likelihood predictors of censored failure times in a progressively Type-II censoring scheme. In addition, we construct the shortest-length predictive intervals for censored failure times. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the validity of the proposed methods.

A Novel extended Horizon Self-tuning Control Using Incremental Estimator (증분형 추정기를 사용한 새로운 장구간 예측 자기동조 제어)

  • 박정일;최계근
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.614-628
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    • 1988
  • In the original incremental Extended Horizon Control, the control inputs are computed recursively each step in the prediction horizon. But in this paper, we propose another incremental Extended Horizon Self-tuning Control version in which control inputs can be computed directly in any time interval. The effectiveness of this algorithm in a variable time delay or load disturbances environment is demonstrated by computer simulation. The controlled plant is a nonminimum phase system.

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Analysis of abnormal traffic controller based on prediction to improve network service survivability (네트워크 서비스의 생존성을 높이기 위한 예측기반 이상 트래픽 제어 방식 분석)

  • Kim Kwang sik
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.30 no.4C
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    • pp.296-304
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    • 2005
  • ATCoP(Abnormal traffic controller based on prediction) is presented to securely support reliable Internet service and to guarantee network survivability, which is deployed in Internet access point. ATCoP is a method to control abnormal traffic that is entering into the network When unknown attack generates excessive traffic, service survivability is guaranteed by giving the priority to normal traffic than abnormal traffic, that is reserving some channels for normal traffic. If the reserved channel number increases, abnormal traffic has lower quality service by ATCoP system and then its service survivability becomes worse. As an analytic result, the proposed scheme maintains the blocking probability of normal traffic on the predefined level in the specific interval of input traffic.

Age Prediction in the Chickens Using Telomere Quantity by Quantitative Fluorescence In situ Hybridization Technique

  • Kim, Y.J.;Subramani, V.K.;Sohn, S.H.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.603-609
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    • 2011
  • Telomeres are special structures at the ends of eukaryotic chromosomes. Vertebrate telomeres consist of tandem repeats of conserved TTAGGG sequence and associated proteins. Birds are interesting models for molecular studies on aging and cellular senescence because of their slow aging rates and longer life spans for their body size. In this longitudinal study, we explored the possibility of using telomeres as an age-marker to predict age in Single Comb White Leghorn layer chickens. We quantified the relative amount of telomeric DNA in isolated peripheral blood lymphocytes by the Quantitative Fluorescence in situ Hybridization technique on interphase nuclei (IQ FISH) using telomere-specific DNA probes. We found that the amount of telomeric DNA (ATD) reduced significantly with an increase in chronological age of the chicken. Especially, the telomere shortening rates are greatly increased in growing individuals compared to laying and old-aged individuals. Therefore, using the ATD values obtained by IQ FISH we established the possibility of age prediction in chickens based on the telomere theory of aging. By regression analysis of the ATD values at each age interval, we formulated an equation to predict the age of chickens. In conclusion, the telomeric DNA values by IQ FISH analyses can be used as an effective age-marker in predicting the chronological age of chickens. The study has implications in the breeding and population genetics of poultry, especially the reproductive potential.

A Study on the Machining of Sculptured Surfaces by 5-Axis CNC Milling (ll) The Prediction of Cusp Heights and Determination of Tool Path interval (5-축 CNC 밀링으로의 자유곡면 가공에 관한 연구 (II) 커섭 높이 예측과 공구경로 결정)

  • 조현덕;전용태;양민양
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.2012-2022
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    • 1993
  • For the machining of the sculptured surfaces on 5-axis CNC milling machine, the milling cutter direction vector was determined in the study (I) with 5-axis post-processing. Thus, it was possible to cut the sculptured surfaces on five-axis CNC milling machine with the end mill cutter. Then, for smooth machined surfaces in five-axis machining of free-from surfaces, this study develops an algorithm for prediction of cusp heights. Also, it generates tool path such that the cusp heights are constrained to a constant value or under a certain value. For prediction of the cusp height between two basis points, a common plane, containing the line crossing two basis points and the summation vector of two normal vectors at two basis points, is defined. The cusp height is the maximum value of scallops on the common plane after end mill cutter passes through the common plane. Sculptured surfaces were machined with CINCINNATI MILACRON 5-axis machining center, model 20V-80, using end mill cutter. Cusp heights were verified by 3-dimensional measuring machine with laser scanner, WEGU Messtechnik GmbH.

Torque Ripple Reduction of Interior Permanent-Magnet Synchronous Motors Driven by Torque Predictive Control (토크예측제어를 이용한 매입형 영구자석 동기전동기의 토크리플저감기법)

  • Kim, Hyunseob;Han, Jungho;Song, Joong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.102-109
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, a new torque predictive control method of interior permanent magnet synchronous motor is developed based on an extended rotor flux. Also, a duty ratio prediction method is proposed and allows the duty ratio of the active stator voltage vector to be continuously calculated. The proposed method makes it possible to relatively reduce the torque ripple under the steady state as well as to remain the good dynamic response in the transient state. With the duty ratio prediction method, the magnitude and time interval of the active stator voltage vector applied can be continuously controlled against the varying operation conditions. This paper shows a comparative study among the switching table direct torque control(DTC), the SVM-DTC, conventional torque predictive control, and the proposed torque predictive control. Simulation results show validity and effectiveness of this work.

Genetic Risk Prediction for Normal-Karyotype Acute Myeloid Leukemia Using Whole-Exome Sequencing

  • Heo, Seong Gu;Hong, Eun Pyo;Park, Ji Wan
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.46-51
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    • 2013
  • Normal-karyotype acute myeloid leukemia (NK-AML) is a highly malignant and cytogenetically heterogeneous hematologic cancer. We searched for somatic mutations from 10 pairs of tumor and normal cells by using a highly efficient and reliable analysis workflow for whole-exome sequencing data and performed association tests between the NK-AML and somatic mutations. We identified 21 nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants (SNVs) located in a coding region of 18 genes. Among them, the SNVs of three leukemia-related genes (MUC4, CNTNAP2, and GNAS) reported in previous studies were replicated in this study. We conducted stepwise genetic risk score (GRS) models composed of the NK-AML susceptible variants and evaluated the prediction accuracy of each GRS model by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The GRS model that was composed of five SNVs (rs75156964, rs56213454, rs6604516, rs10888338, and rs2443878) showed 100% prediction accuracy, and the combined effect of the three reported genes was validated in the current study (AUC, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.92 to 1.00). Further study with large sample sizes is warranted to validate the combined effect of these somatic point mutations, and the discovery of novel markers may provide an opportunity to develop novel diagnostic and therapeutic targets for NK-AML.

Partial AUC maximization for essential gene prediction using genetic algorithms

  • Hwang, Kyu-Baek;Ha, Beom-Yong;Ju, Sanghun;Kim, Sangsoo
    • BMB Reports
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2013
  • Identifying genes indispensable for an organism's life and their characteristics is one of the central questions in current biological research, and hence it would be helpful to develop computational approaches towards the prediction of essential genes. The performance of a predictor is usually measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We propose a novel method by implementing genetic algorithms to maximize the partial AUC that is restricted to a specific interval of lower false positive rate (FPR), the region relevant to follow-up experimental validation. Our predictor uses various features based on sequence information, protein-protein interaction network topology, and gene expression profiles. A feature selection wrapper was developed to alleviate the over-fitting problem and to weigh each feature's relevance to prediction. We evaluated our method using the proteome of budding yeast. Our implementation of genetic algorithms maximizing the partial AUC below 0.05 or 0.10 of FPR outperformed other popular classification methods.

Design of Multiple Model Fuzzy Predictors using Data Preprocessing and its Application (데이터 전처리를 이용한 다중 모델 퍼지 예측기의 설계 및 응용)

  • Bang, Young-Keun;Lee, Chul-Heui
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.1
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2009
  • It is difficult to predict non-stationary or chaotic time series which includes the drift and/or the non-linearity as well as uncertainty. To solve it, we propose an effective prediction method which adopts data preprocessing and multiple model TS fuzzy predictors combined with model selection mechanism. In data preprocessing procedure, the candidates of the optimal difference interval are determined based on the correlation analysis, and corresponding difference data sets are generated in order to use them as predictor input instead of the original ones because the difference data can stabilize the statistical characteristics of those time series and better reveals their implicit properties. Then, TS fuzzy predictors are constructed for multiple model bank, where k-means clustering algorithm is used for fuzzy partition of input space, and the least squares method is applied to parameter identification of fuzzy rules. Among the predictors in the model bank, the one which best minimizes the performance index is selected, and it is used for prediction thereafter. Finally, the error compensation procedure based on correlation analysis is added to improve the prediction accuracy. Some computer simulations are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Big Data Based Urban Transportation Analysis for Smart Cities - Machine Learning Based Traffic Prediction by Using Urban Environment Data - (도시 빅데이터를 활용한 스마트시티의 교통 예측 모델 - 환경 데이터와의 상관관계 기계 학습을 통한 예측 모델의 구축 및 검증 -)

  • Jang, Sun-Young;Shin, Dong-Youn
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.12-19
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    • 2018
  • The research aims to find implications of machine learning and urban big data as a way to construct the flexible transportation network system of smart city by responding the urban context changes. This research deals with a problem that existing a bus headway model is difficult to respond urban situations in real-time. Therefore, utilizing the urban big data and machine learning prototyping tool in weathers, traffics, and bus statues, this research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data is gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is implemented by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted several tests for bus delays prediction according to specific circumstances. As a result, possibilities of transportation system are discussed for promoting the urban efficiency and the citizens' convenience by responding to urban conditions.