• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Error Method

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Predicting the Popularity of Post Articles with Virtual Temperature in Web Bulletin (웹게시판에서 가상온도를 이용한 게시글의 인기 예측)

  • Kim, Su-Do;Kim, So-Ra;Cho, Hwan-Gue
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2011
  • A Blog provides commentary, news, or content on a particular subject. The important part of many blogs is interactive format. Sometimes, there is a heated debate on a topic and any article becomes a political or sociological issue. In this paper, we proposed a method to predict the popularity of an article in advance. First, we used hit count as a factor to predict the popularity of an article. We defined the saturation point and derived a model to predict the hit count of the saturation point by a correlation coefficient of the early hit count and hit count of the saturation point. Finally, we predicted the virtual temperature of an article using 4 types(explosive, hot, warm, cold). We can predict the virtual temperature of Internet discussion articles using the hit count of the saturation point with more than 70% accuracy, exploiting only the first 30 minutes' hit count. In the hot, warm, and cold categories, we can predict more than 86% accuracy from 30 minutes' hit count and more than 90% accuracy from 70 minutes' hit count.

Modeling Residual Chlorine and THMs in Water Distribution System (배급수계통에서 잔류염소 및 THMs 분포 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Jae-Chan;Lee, Su-Won;Rho, Bang-Sik;Choi, Young-Jun;Choi, Jae-Ho;Kim, Hyo-Il;Park, Tae-Jun;Park, Chang-Min;Park, Hyeon;Koo, Ja-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.706-714
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    • 2007
  • This study suggested a method for prediction of residual chlorine and THMs in water distribution system by measurement of residual chlorine, THMs, and other parameters, estimation of chlorine decay coefficients and THM formation coefficients, and simulation of water qualities using pipe network analysis. Bulk decay coefficients of parallel first-order were obtained by bottle tests, and pipe wall decay coefficients of first-order were estimated through evaluation of 5 models, which showed the lowest values of 0.03 for MAE(mean absolute error) and 0.037 MAE in comparison with the observed in field. And bottle tests were conducted to model first-order reaction of THM formation by nonlinear least square regression and the resultant coefficients were compared with the observed in field. As a result, the coefficients of determination$(R^2)$ for the observed and the predicted values were 0.98 in September and 0.82 in November, and the formation of THMs was predicted by modeling.

Application of the Onsite EEW Technology Using the P-Wave of Seismic Records in Korea (국내 지진관측기록의 P파를 이용한 지진현장경보기술 적용)

  • Lee, HoJun;Jeon, Inchan;Seo, JeongBeom;Lee, JinKoo
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.133-143
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study aims to derive a predictive empirical equation for PGV prediction from P-wave using earthquake records in Korea and to verify the reliability of Onsite EEW. Method: The noise of P wave is removed from the observations of 627 seismic events in Korea to derive an empirical equation with PGV on the base rock, and reliability of Onsite alarms is verified from comparing PGV's predictions and observations through simulation using the empirical equation. Result: P-waves were extracted using the Filter Picker from earthquake observation records that eliminated noises, a linear regression with PGV was used to derive a predictive empirical equation for Onsite EEW. Through the on-site warning simulation we could get a success rate of 80% within the MMI±1 error range above MMI IV or higher. Conclusion: Through this study, the design feasibility and performance of Onsite EEWS using domestic earthquake records were verified. In order to increase validity, additional medium-sized seismic observations from abroad are required, the mis-detection of P waves is controlled, and the effect of seismic amplification on the surface is required.

A $2{\times}2$ Microstrip Patch Antenna Array for Moisture Content Measurement of Paddy Rice (산물벼 함수율 측정을 위한 $2{\times}2$ 마이크로스트립 패치 안테나 개발)

  • 김기복;김종헌;노상하
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.97-106
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    • 2000
  • To develop the grain moisture meter using microwave free space transmission technique, a 10.5GHz microwave signal with the power of 11mW generated by an oscillar with a dielectric resonator is transmitted to an isolator and radiated from a transmitting $2{\times}2$ microstrip patch array antenna into the sample holder filled with the 12 to 26%w.b. of Korean Hwawung paddy rice. the microwave signal, attenuated through the grain with moisture, is collected by a receiving $2{\times}2$ microstrip patch array antenna and detected using a Shottky diode with excellent high frequency characteristic. A pair of light and simple microstrip patch array antenna for measurement of grain moisture content is designed and implemented on atenflon substrate with trleative dielectric constant of 2.6 and thickness of 0.54 by using Ensemble ver. 4.02 software. The aperture of microstrip patch arrays is 41 mm width and 24mm high. The characteristics of microstrip patch antenna such as grain. return loss, and bandwidth are 11.35dBi, -38dB and 0.35GHz($50^{\circ}$ at far-field pattern of E and H plane. The width of the sample holder is large enough to cover the signal between the antennas temperature and bulk density respectively. The calibration model for measurement of grain moisture content is proposed to reduce the effects of fluectuations in bulk density and temperature which give serious errors for the measurements . From the results of regression analysis using the statistically analysis method, the moisture content of grain samples (MC(%)) is expressed in terms of the output voltage(v), temperature (t), and bulk density of samples(${\rho}b$)as follows ;$$MC(%)\;=\;(-3.9838{\times}10^{-8}{\times}v^{3}+8.023{\times}10^{-6}{\times}v^{2}-0.0011{\times}v-0.0004{\times}t+0.1706){\frac{1}{{\rho}b}}{\times}100$ Its determination coefficient, standard error of prediction(SEP) and bias were found to be 0.9855, 0.479%w.b. and -0.0.369 %w.b. respectively between measured and predicted moisture contents of the grain samples.

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Development of Bus Arrival Time Estimation Model by Unit of Route Group (노선그룹단위별 버스도착시간 추정모형 연구)

  • No, Chang-Gyun;Kim, Won-Gil;Son, Bong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 2010
  • The convenient techniques for predicting the bus arrival time have used the data obtained from the buses belong to the same company only. Consequently, the conventional techniques have often failed to predict the bus arrival time at the downstream bus stops due to the lack of the data during congestion time period. The primary objective of this study is to overcome the weakness of the conventional techniques. The estimation model developed based on the data obtained from Bus Information System(BIS) and Bus management System(BMS). The proposed model predicts the bus arrival time at bus stops by using the data of all buses travelling same roadway section during the same time period. In the tests, the proposed model had a good accuracy of predicting the bus arrival time at the bus stops in terms of statistical measurements (e.g., root mean square error). Overall, the empirical results were very encouraging: the model maintains a prediction job during the morning and evening peak periods and delivers excellent results for the severely congested roadways that are of the most practical interest.

Prediction of Chemical Composition and Fermentation Parameters in Forage Sorghum and Sudangrass Silage using Near Infrared Spectroscopy

  • Park, Hyung-Soo;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Choi, Ki-Choon;Kim, Ji-Hye;So, Min-Jeong;Kim, Hyeon-Seop
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.257-263
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    • 2015
  • This study was conducted to assess the potential of using NIRS to accurately determine the chemical composition and fermentation parameters in fresh coarse sorghum and sudangrass silage. Near Infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) has been increasingly used as a rapid and accurate method to analyze the quality of cereals and dried animal forage. However, silage analysis by NIRS has a limitation in analyzing dried and ground samples in farm-scale applications because the fermentative products are lost during the drying process. Fresh coarse silage samples were scanned at 1 nm intervals over the wavelength range of 680~2500 nm, and the optical data were obtained as log 1/Reflectance (log 1/R). The spectral data were regressed, using partial least squares (PLS) multivariate analysis in conjunction with first and second order derivatization, with a scatter correction procedure (standard normal variate and detrend (SNV&D)) to reduce the effect of extraneous noise. The optimum calibrations were selected on the basis of minimizing the standard error of cross validation (SECV). The results of this study showed that NIRS predicted the chemical constituents with a high degree of accuracy (i.e. the correlation coefficient of cross validation ($R^2{_{cv}}$) ranged from 0.86~0.96), except for crude ash which had an $R^2{_{cv}}$ of 0.68. Comparison of the mathematical treatments for raw spectra showed that the second-order derivatization procedure produced the best result for all the treatments, except for neutral detergent fiber (NDF). The best mathematical treatment for moisture, acid detergent fiber (ADF), crude protein (CP) and pH was 2,16,16 respectively while the best mathematical treatment for crude ash, lactic acid and total acid was 2,8,8 respectively. The calibrations of fermentation products produced poorer calibrations (RPD < 2.5) with acetic and butyric acid. The pH, lactic acid and total acids were predicted with considerable accuracy at $R^2{_{cv}}$ 0.72~0.77. This study indicated that NIRS calibrations based on fresh coarse sorghum and sudangrass silage spectra have the capability of assessing the forage quality control

Construction of High-Resolution Topographical Map of Macro-tidal Malipo beach through Integration of Terrestrial LiDAR Measurement and MBES Survey at inter-tidal zone (대조차 만리포 해안의 지상 LiDAR와 MBES를 이용한 정밀 지형/수심 측량 및 조간대 접합을 통한 정밀 지형도 작성)

  • Shim, Jae-Seol;Kim, Jin-Ah;Kim, Seon-Jeong;Kim, Sang-Ik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.58-66
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we have constructed high-resolution topographical map of macro-tidal Malipo beach through integration of terrestrial LiDAR measurement and MBES survey data at inter-tidal zone. To acquire the enough information of inter-tidal zone, we have done terrestrial LiDAR measurement mounted on the roof of vehicle with DGPS through go-stop-scan method at the ebb tide and MBES depth surveying with tide gauge and eye staff measurement for tide correction and MSL calculation at the high tide all together. To integrate two kinds of data, we have unified the vertical coordination standard to Incheon MSL. The mean error of overlapped inter-tidal zone is about 2~6 cm. To verify the accuracy of terrestrial LiDAR, RTK-DGPS measurement have done simultaneously and the difference of Z value RMSE is about 4~7 cm. The resolution of Malipo topographical map is 50 cm and it has constructed to DEM (Digital Elevation Model) based on GIS. Now it has used as an input topography information for the storm-surge inundation prediction models. Also it will be possible to use monitoring of beach process through the long-term periodic measurement and GIS-based 3D spatial analysis calculating the erosion and deposition considering with the artificial beach transition and coastal environmental parameters.

BS-PLC(Both Side-Packet Loss Concealment) for CELP Coder (CELP 부호화기를 위한 양방향 패킷 손실 은닉 알고리즘)

  • Lee In-Sung;Hwang Jeong-Joon;Jeong Gyu-Hyeok
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.42 no.12
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2005
  • Lost packet robustness is an most important quality measure for voice over IP networks(VoIP). Recovery of the lost packet from the received information is crucial to realize this robustness. So, this paper proposes the lost packet recovery method from the received information for real-time communication for CELP coder. The proposed BS-PLC (Both Side Packet Loss Concealment) based WSOLA(Waveform Shift OverLab Add) allow the lost packet to be recovered from both the 'previous' and 'next' good packet as the LP parameter and the excitation signal are respectively recovered. The burst of packet loss is modeled by Gilbert model. The proposed scheme is applied to G.729 most used in VoIP and is evaluated through the SNR(signal to noise) and the MOS(Mean Opinion Score) test. As a simulation result, The proposed scheme provide 0.3 higher in Mean Opinion Score and 2 dB higher in terms of SNR than an error concealment procedure in the decoder of G.729 at $20\%$ average packet loss rate.

CFD ANALYSIS OF TURBULENT JET BEHAVIOR INDUCED BY A STEAM JET DISCHARGED THROUGH A VERTICAL UPWARD SINGLE HOLE IN A SUBCOOLED WATER POOL

  • Kang, Hyung-Seok;Song, Chul-Hwa
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.382-393
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    • 2010
  • Thermal mixing by steam jets in a pool is dominantly influenced by a turbulent water jet generated by the condensing steam jets, and the proper prediction of this turbulent jet behavior is critical for the pool mixing analysis. A turbulent jet flow induced by a steam jet discharged through a vertical upward single hole into a subcooled water pool was subjected to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis. Based on the small-scale test data derived under a horizontal steam discharging condition, this analysis was performed to validate a CFD method of analysis previously developed for condensing jet-induced pool mixing phenomena. In previous validation work, the CFD results and the test data for a limited range of radial and axial directions were compared in terms of profiles of the turbulent jet velocity and temperature. Furthermore, the behavior of the turbulent jet induced by the steam jet through a horizontal single hole in a subcooled water pool failed to show the exact axisymmetric flow pattern with regards to an overall pool mixing, whereas the CFD analysis was done with an axisymmetric grid model. Therefore, another new small-scale test was conducted under a vertical upward steam discharging condition. The purpose of this test was to generate the velocity and temperature profiles of the turbulent jet by expanding the measurement ranges from the jet center to a location at about 5% of $U_m$ and 10 cm to 30 cm from the exit of the discharge nozzle. The results of the new CFD analysis show that the recommended CFD model of the high turbulent intensity of 40% for the turbulent jet and the fine mesh grid model can accurately predict the test results within an error rate of about 10%. In this work, the turbulent jet model, which is used to simply predict the temperature and velocity profiles along the axial and radial directions by means of the empirical correlations and Tollmien's theory was improved on the basis of the new test data. The results validate the CFD model of analysis. Furthermore, the turbulent jet model developed in this study can be used to analyze pool thermal mixing when an ellipsoidal steam jet is discharged under a high steam mass flux in a subcooled water pool.

Youtube Mukbang and Online Delivery Orders: Analysis of Impacts and Predictive Model (유튜브 먹방과 온라인 배달 주문: 영향력 분석과 예측 모형)

  • Choi, Sarah;Lee, Sang-Yong Tom
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2022
  • One of the most important current features of food related industry is the growth of food delivery service. Another notable food related culture is, with the advent of Youtube, the popularity of Mukbang, which refers to content that records eating. Based on these background, this study intended to focus on two things. First, we tried to see the impact of Youtube Mukbang and the sentiments of Mukbang comments on the number of related food deliveries. Next, we tried to set up the predictive modeling of chicken delivery order with machine learning method. We used Youtube Mukbang comments data as well as weather related data as main independent variables. The dependent variable used in this study is the number of delivery order of fried chicken. The period of data used in this study is from June 3, 2015 to September 30, 2019, and a total of 1,580 data were used. For the predictive modeling, we used machine learning methods such as linear regression, ridge, lasso, random forest, and gradient boost. We found that the sentiment of Youtube Mukbang and comments have impacts on the number of delivery orders. The prediction model with Mukban data we set up in this study had better performances than the existing models without Mukbang data. We also tried to suggest managerial implications to the food delivery service industry.