• Title/Summary/Keyword: Prediction Analysis

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A Prediction Model for Internet Game Addiction in Adolescents: Using a Decision Tree Analysis (의사결정나무 분석기법을 이용한 청소년의 인터넷게임 중독 영향 요인 예측 모형 구축)

  • Kim, Ki-Sook;Kim, Kyung-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.378-388
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: This study was designed to build a theoretical frame to provide practical help to prevent and manage adolescent internet game addiction by developing a prediction model through a comprehensive analysis of related factors. Methods: The participants were 1,318 students studying in elementary, middle, and high schools in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, Korea. Collected data were analyzed using the SPSS program. Decision Tree Analysis using the Clementine program was applied to build an optimum and significant prediction model to predict internet game addiction related to various factors, especially parent related factors. Results: From the data analyses, the prediction model for factors related to internet game addiction presented with 5 pathways. Causative factors included gender, type of school, siblings, economic status, religion, time spent alone, gaming place, payment to Internet cafe$\acute{e}$, frequency, duration, parent's ability to use internet, occupation (mother), trust (father), expectations regarding adolescent's study (mother), supervising (both parents), rearing attitude (both parents). Conclusion: The results suggest preventive and managerial nursing programs for specific groups by path. Use of this predictive model can expand the role of school nurses, not only in counseling addicted adolescents but also, in developing and carrying out programs with parents and approaching adolescents individually through databases and computer programming.

Prediction Models of Conflict and Intimacy in Teacher-Child Relationships: Investigation of Child Variables Based on Decision Tree Analysis (교사-유아 관계의 갈등 및 친밀감에 대한 예측 모형: 의사결정나무분석을 적용한 유아변인의 탐색)

  • Shin, Yoolim
    • Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.69-86
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    • 2020
  • Objective: The purpose of this research was to examine the prediction models of conflict and intimacy in teacher-child relationships based on decision tree analysis. Methods: The participants were 297 preschool children from ages three to five including 166 boys and 131 girls. Teacher-child relationships were measured by the Student-Teacher Relationship Scale(STRS). Physical aggression, relational aggression, social withdrawal, and prosocial behaviors were measured by teacher ratings. Moreover, ADHD-RS(Attentive Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Rating Scale) was used to measure ADHD. The data was analyzed with decision tree analysis. Results: According to the prediction model for teacher-child conflict, the significant predictors were physical aggression and social withdrawal. According to the prediction model for teacher-child intimacy, the significant predictors were prosocial behaviors and relational aggression. However, children's age, gender and ADHD were not significant predictors. Conclusion/Implications: The findings suggest that social behaviors may be closely related with teacher-child relationships for preschool children. Based on the results of this study, intervention suggestions were made.

Post-Examination Analysis on the Student Dropout Prediction Index (학생 중도탈락 예측지수에 관한 사후검증 연구)

  • Lee, Ji-Eun
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.175-183
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    • 2019
  • Drop-out issue is one of the challenges of cyber university. There are about 130,000 students enrolled in cyber universities, but the dropout rate is also very high. To lower the dropout rate, cyber universities invest heavily in learning analytics. Some cyber universities analyze the possibility of dropout and actively support students who are more likely to drop out. The purpose of this paper is to identify the learning data affecting the dropout prediction index. As a result of the analysis, it is confirmed that number of lessons(progress), credits, achievement and leave of absence have a significant effect on dropout rate. It is necessary to increase the accuracy of the prediction model through post-test on the student dropout prediction index.

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Development of Simple Prediction Model for Fillet Welding Deformation (필릿 용접변형에 대한 간이 예측 모델 개발)

  • 김상일
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2003
  • The welding deformation of a hull structure in the shipbuilding industry is Inevitable at each assembly stage. The geometric inaccuracy caused by the welding deformation tends to preclude the introduction of automation and mechanization and needs the additional man-hours for the adjusting work at the following assembly stage. To overcome this problem, a distortion control method should be applied. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop an accurateprediction method which can explicitly account for the influence of various factors on the welding deformation. The validity of the prediction method must be also clarified through experiments. This paper is aimed at deriving the simple prediction model for fillet welding deformations. For this purpose, the thermal elasto-plastic analysis varying the welding conditions and plate thickness has been performed. On the basis of numerical results, the formulae for angular distortion and transverse shrinkage have been derived through the regression analysis. Experimental work has been also carried out to clarify the validity of numerical results. It has been found that the numerical results show a good agreement with those of experiments

Prediction of Welding Imperfection with Idealization of Welding and Their Accuracy (용접이상화에 의한 용접부정의 예측과 정도)

  • Lee, Jae-Yik;Chang, Kyong-Ho;Kim, You-Chul
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.15-19
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    • 2013
  • In order to reduce a grand compute time in prediction of welding distortion and residual stress by 3D thermal elastic plastic analysis, idealization of welding that is methods to heat input simultaneously in all weld metal on the same welding direction is carried out on two weld joints(butt welding and fillet welding). Then, the accuracy of acquired results is investigated through the comparison of the high accuracy prediction results. The thermal conduction analysis results by idealization of welding, the temperature is raised accompany with beginning of heat input because all of weld metal is heated input at the same time. On the other side, the temperature witch predicted with high accuracy is raised at the moment heating source passes the measuring points. So, there is difference of time between idealization of welding and considering of moving heat source faithfully. However, temperature history by idealization of welding is well simulated a high accuracy prediction results.

Development of Korean Paddy Rice Yield Prediction Model (KRPM) using Meteorological Element and MODIS NDVI (기상요소와 MODIS NDVI를 이용한 한국형 논벼 생산량 예측모형 (KRPM)의 개발)

  • Na, Sang-Il;Park, Jong-Hwa;Park, Jin-Ki
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2012
  • Food policy is considered as the most basic and central issue for all countries, while making efforts to keep each country's food sovereignty and enhance food self-sufficiency. In the case of Korea where the staple food is rice, the rice yield prediction is regarded as a very important task to cope with unstable food supply at a national level. In this study, Korean paddy Rice yield Prediction Model (KRPM) developed to predict the paddy rice yield using meteorological element and MODIS NDVI. A multiple linear regression analysis was carried out by using the NDVI extracted from satellite image. Six meteorological elements include average temperature; maximum temperature; minimum temperature; rainfall; accumulated rainfall and duration of sunshine. Concerning the evaluation for the applicability of the KRPM, the accuracy assessment was carried out through correlation analysis between predicted and provided data by the National Statistical Office of paddy rice yield in 2011. The 2011 predicted yield of paddy rice by KRPM was 505 kg/10a at whole country level and 487 kg/10a by agroclimatic zones using stepwise regression while the predicted value by KOrea Statistical Information Service was 532 kg/10a. The characteristics of changes in paddy rice yield according to NDVI and other meteorological elements were well reflected by the KRPM.

A Development of Flash Fire Prediction Program for Combat System (전투 시스템의 순간 화재 예측 프로그램 개발)

  • Hwang, Hun-Gyu;Lee, Jang-Se;Lee, Seung-Chul;Park, Young-Ju;Lee, Hae-Pyeong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.255-261
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we developed and tested a program for prediction flash fire in a combat system. Purposes of the program are flash fire prediction of combat system for analysis vulnerability and survivability, and visualization for fire-related information. To do this, we defined critical components of the combat system which has probabilities of flash fire occurrence, and proposed Flash Fire Probability Tree which is based on Fault Tree Analysis(FTA). The program visualizes positions of critical components in combat system, positions of penetrated components, selected Flash Fire Probability Tree, temperature profile, and tables for properties of matters.

Relevance vector based approach for the prediction of stress intensity factor for the pipe with circumferential crack under cyclic loading

  • Ramachandra Murthy, A.;Vishnuvardhan, S.;Saravanan, M.;Gandhic, P.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.72 no.1
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2019
  • Structural integrity assessment of piping components is of paramount important for remaining life prediction, residual strength evaluation and for in-service inspection planning. For accurate prediction of these, a reliable fracture parameter is essential. One of the fracture parameters is stress intensity factor (SIF), which is generally preferred for high strength materials, can be evaluated by using linear elastic fracture mechanics principles. To employ available analytical and numerical procedures for fracture analysis of piping components, it takes considerable amount of time and effort. In view of this, an alternative approach to analytical and finite element analysis, a model based on relevance vector machine (RVM) is developed to predict SIF of part through crack of a piping component under fatigue loading. RVM is based on probabilistic approach and regression and it is established based on Bayesian formulation of a linear model with an appropriate prior that results in a sparse representation. Model for SIF prediction is developed by using MATLAB software wherein 70% of the data has been used for the development of RVM model and rest of the data is used for validation. The predicted SIF is found to be in good agreement with the corresponding analytical solution, and can be used for damage tolerant analysis of structural components.

A Study on the Development of Adaptive Learning System through EEG-based Learning Achievement Prediction

  • Jinwoo, KIM;Hosung, WOO
    • Fourth Industrial Review
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - By designing a PEF(Personalized Education Feedback) system for real-time prediction of learning achievement and motivation through real-time EEG analysis of learners, this system provides some modules of a personalized adaptive learning system. By applying these modules to e-learning and offline learning, they motivate learners and improve the quality of learning progress and effective learning outcomes can be achieved for immersive self-directed learning Research design, data, and methodology - EEG data were collected simultaneously as the English test was given to the experimenters, and the correlation between the correct answer result and the EEG data was learned with a machine learning algorithm and the predictive model was evaluated.. Result - In model performance evaluation, both artificial neural networks(ANNs) and support vector machines(SVMs) showed high accuracy of more than 91%. Conclusion - This research provides some modules of personalized adaptive learning systems that can more efficiently complete by designing a PEF system for real-time learning achievement prediction and learning motivation through an adaptive learning system based on real-time EEG analysis of learners. The implication of this initial research is to verify hypothetical situations for the development of an adaptive learning system through EEG analysis-based learning achievement prediction.

Life Prediction of Hydraulic Concrete Based on Grey Residual Markov Model

  • Gong, Li;Gong, Xuelei;Liang, Ying;Zhang, Bingzong;Yang, Yiqun
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.457-469
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    • 2022
  • Hydraulic concrete buildings in the northwest of China are often subject to the combined effects of low-temperature frost damage, during drying and wetting cycles, and salt erosion, so the study of concrete deterioration prediction is of major importance. The prediction model of the relative dynamic elastic modulus (RDEM) of four different kinds of modified concrete under the special environment in the northwest of China was established using Grey residual Markov theory. Based on the available test data, modified values of the dynamic elastic modulus were obtained based on the Grey GM(1,1) model and the residual GM(1,1) model, combined with the Markov sign correction, and the dynamic elastic modulus of concrete was predicted. The computational analysis showed that the maximum relative error of the corrected dynamic elastic modulus was significantly reduced, from 1.599% to 0.270% for the BS2 group. The analysis error showed that the model was more adjusted to the concrete mixed with fly ash and mineral powder, and its calculation error was significantly lower than that of the rest of the groups. The analysis of the data for each group proved that the model could predict the loss of dynamic elastic modulus of the deterioration of the concrete effectively, as well as the number of cycles when the concrete reached the damaged state.