• Title/Summary/Keyword: Power Series

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Comparing Monthly Precipitation Predictions Using Time Series Analysis with Deep Learning Models (시계열 분석 및 딥러닝 모형을 활용한 월 강수량 예측 비교)

  • Chung, Yeon-Ji;Kim, Min-Ki;Um, Myoung-Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.443-463
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    • 2024
  • This study sought to improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction by utilizing monthly precipitation data for each region over the past 30 years. Using statistical models (ARIMA, SARIMA) and deep learning models (LSTM, GBM), we learned monthly precipitation data from 1983 to 2012 in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Jeju, and Chuncheon. Based on this, monthly precipitation was predicted for 10 years from 2013 to 2022. As a result of the prediction, most models accurately predicted the precipitation trend, but showed a tendency to underpredict the actual precipitation. To solve these problems, appropriate models were selected for each region and season. The LSTM model showed suitable results in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Busan, Seoul, Jeju, and Chuncheon. When comparing forecasting power by season, the SARIMA model showed particularly suitable forecasting performance in winter in Gangneung, Gwangju, Daegu, Daejeon, Seoul, and Chuncheon. Additionally, the LSTM model showed higher performance than other models in the summer when precipitation is concentrated. In conclusion, closely analyzing regional and seasonal precipitation patterns and selecting the optimal prediction model based on this plays a critical role in increasing the accuracy of precipitation prediction.

Effects on cooperative spirit of a cohort by instruction types of Taekwondo (태권도 지도자의 지도유형이 집단응집력에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeong, Chan-Sam
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.13
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    • pp.471-485
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    • 2007
  • This study is performed to find out what type instructions are produced to players by coaches and what effects are resulted in cooperative spirit of the concerned group. Furthermore the study has its aims at advancing instructors' skills by using finding of it. The study used 'SPSS 11.0 FOR WINDOW - Statistical Package' to analyze the collected samples and dealt with data of 174 individuals. Statistical analysis of the research for hypothesis verification was about frequency, trust level, mutual relationship, variables, and T-verification. The meaningful level for any result was ranged within 95%(p< .05), 99%(p<.01). The finding are as follows. Effects on pleasure, one of elements of team spirits taken by instructor's training style are analyzed as follows. It was proved to be meaningful in relation with a series of activities like training, democratic, social, compensatory aspects and showed also considerable relation with power based behaviors. That says, players are found to enjoy high pleasure when social and bureaucratic behaviors of instructors are very energetic. In addition to that, training, democratic, and compensatory activities didn't show any meaningful effect. Team spirit was found to play a main role between instructor's behaviors and training, democratic, social rewarding activities. Democratic and social acts influence on team spirit. Looking into the detailed aspects, team spirit was resulted very high in the individuals with low democratic mind and was shown high group spirit by groups with high sociable activities. Teamworks was found to be affected by relation between instructor's acts and training, democratic, social and compensatory aspects and it showed meaningful relations with training, social, bureaucratic behaviors. Low degree of training and bureaucratic activities are found to prefer for power team spirit, and high social activities led a strong teamworks. Group binding spirit was influenced by training, democratic, social compensatory, bureaucratic behaviors and it showed to give effects on democratic, social, and bureaucratic activities of instructors. Low degree of democratic and bureaucratic behaviors are found to produce strong team spirit. In contrast with that, strong social activities was found to be motive of powerful team spirit. Value of team spirit was found to play a main role between instructor's behaviors and training, democratic, social, rewarding activities. It didn't show any meaningful effect on behavior of instructors.

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Analysis of Actual Condition on Subcontracting System in Korean Automotive Industry (자동차산업(自動車産業)의 하도급제(下都給制) 실태분석(實態分析))

  • Kim, Joo-hoon;Cho, Kwan-haeng
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.69-96
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    • 1991
  • Economic circumstances of enterprise began to change after a series of democratization measures in 1987. Accompanied with it, competitive advantage of enterprise began to change as well. By that time Korean enterprises had a competitive advantage based on low wages of labor. Abrupt and steady upsurge in wage, however, weakened competitive advantage based on low wages, upward revaluation of won currency caused by surplus in BOP strengthened upward trend in price increase of export products. An urgent problem in Korea economy is, therefore, to find 'new' competitive advantage. For the time being preserving competitiveness based on cost advantage must inevitably remain our basic strategy in industrial policy. While cost advantage in the past referred to low wage level, this cost advantage must have foundation on the improvment in producing technology, which will increase labor productivity and decrease unit cost of products. Besides, other measure to improve competitiveness can be considered such as increasing the extent of production automation, self-development of new products, and spread and strengthening subcontracting system among various enterprises. In this paper we tried to perceive how subcontracting system as a form of intercompany division of labor operates and to which direction this system proceeds responding to the recent changes in economic circumstances. Speaking more concretly, we tried to perceive how large the gap of bargaining power between mother-company and subcontracting company is and how effectively subcontracting company's technical power contributes to mother-company. Facing up to weakeening of competitiveness, how stably is the partnership between mother-company and subcontracting company established and what measures are being prepared to retore the weakened competitiveness. In conclusion the result of investigation through the questionaire on subcontracting system is positive, from which we can infer the optimistic view of restoring Korean economy's competitiveness.

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Structure and Variation of Tidal Flat Temperature in Gomso Bay, West Coast of Korea (서해안 곰소만 갯벌 온도의 구조 및 변화)

  • Lee, Sang-Ho;Cho, Yang-Ki;You, Kwang-Woo;Kim, Young-Gon;Choi, Hyun-Yong
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.100-112
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    • 2005
  • Soil temperature was measured from the surface to 40 cm depth at three stations with different heights in tidal flat of Gomso Bay, west coast of Korea, for one month in every season 2004 to examine the thermal structure and the variation. Mean temperature in surface layer was higher in summer and lower in winter than in lower layer, reflecting the seasonal variation of vertically propagating structure of temperature by heating and cooling from the tidal flat surface. Standard deviation of temperature decreased from the surface to lower layer. Periodic variations of solar radiation energy and tide mainly caused short term variation of soil temperature, which was also intermittently influenced by precipitation and wind. Time series analysis showed the power spectral energy peaks at the periods of 24, 12 and 8 hours, and the strongest peak appeared at 24 hour period. These peaks can be interpreted as temperature waves forced by variations of solar radiation, diurnal tide and interaction of both variations, respectively. EOF analysis showed that the first and the second modes resolved 96% of variation of vertical temperature structure. The first mode was interpreted as the heating antl cooling from tidal flat surface and the second mode as the effect of phase lag produced by temperature wave propagation in the soil. The phase of heat transfer by 24 hour period wave, analyzed by cross spectrum, showed that mean phase difference of the temperature wave increased almost linearly with the soil depth. The time lags by the phase difference from surface to 10, 20 and 40cm were 3.2,6.5 and 9.8 hours, respectively. Vertical thermal diffusivity of temperature wave of 24 hour period was estimated using one dimensional thermal diffusion model. Average diffusivity over the soil depths and seasons resulted in $0.70{\times}10^{-6}m^2/s$ at the middle station and $0.57{\times}10^{-6}m^2/s$ at the lowest station. The depth-averaged diffusivity was large in spring and small in summer and the seasonal mean diffusivity vertically increased from 2 cm to 10 cm and decreased from 10 cm to 40 cm. Thermal propagation speeds were estimated by $8.75{\times}10^{-4}cm/s,\;3.8{\times}10{-4}cm/s,\;and\;1.7{\times}10^{-4}cm/s$ from 2 cm to 10 cm, 20 cm and 40 cm, respectively, indicating the speed reduction with depth increasing from the surface.

Dynamic Behavior of Reactor Internals under Safe Shutdown Earthquake (안전정기지진하의 원자로내부구조물 거동분석)

  • 김일곤
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 1994
  • The safety related components in the nuclear power plant should be designed to withstand the seismic load. Among these components the integrity of reactor internals under earthquake load is important in stand points of safety and economics, because these are classified to Seismic Class I components. So far the modelling methods of reactor internals have been investigated by many authors. In this paper, the dynamic behaviour of reactor internals of Yong Gwang 1&2 nuclear power plants under SSE(Safe Shutdown Earthquake) load is analyzed by using of the simpled Global Beam Model. For this, as a first step, the characteristic analysis of reactor internal components are performed by using of the finite element code ANSYS. And the Global Beam Model for reactor internals which includes beam elements, nonlinear impact springs which have gaps in upper and lower positions, and hydrodynamical couplings which simulate the fluid-filled cylinders of reactor vessel and core barrel structures is established. And for the exciting external force the response spectrum which is applied to reactor support is converted to the time history input. With this excitation and the model the dynamic behaviour of reactor internals is obtained. As the results, the structural integrity of reactor internal components under seismic excitation is verified and the input for the detailed duel assembly series model could be obtained. And the simplicity and effectiveness of Global Beam Model and the economics of the explicit Runge-Kutta-Gills algorithm in impact problem of high frequency interface components are confirmed.

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Optimal Operation of Gas Engine for Biogas Plant in Sewage Treatment Plant (하수처리장 바이오가스 플랜트의 가스엔진 최적 운영 방안)

  • Kim, Gill Jung;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.18-35
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    • 2019
  • The Korea District Heating Corporation operates a gas engine generator with a capacity of $4500m^3 /day$ of biogas generated from the sewage treatment plant of the Nanji Water Recycling Center and 1,500 kW. However, the actual operation experience of the biogas power plant is insufficient, and due to lack of accumulated technology and know-how, frequent breakdown and stoppage of the gas engine causes a lot of economic loss. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare technical fundamental measures for stable operation of the power plant In this study, a series of process problems of the gas engine plant using the biogas generated in the sewage treatment plant of the Nanji Water Recovery Center were identified and the optimization of the actual operation was made by minimizing the problems in each step. In order to purify the gas, which is the main cause of the failure stop, the conditions for establishing the quality standard of the adsorption capacity of the activated carbon were established through the analysis of the components and the adsorption test for the active carbon being used at present. In addition, the system was applied to actual operation by applying standards for replacement cycle of activated carbon to minimize impurities, strengthening measurement period of hydrogen sulfide, localization of activated carbon, and strengthening and improving the operation standards of the plant. As a result, the operating performance of gas engine # 1 was increased by 530% and the operation of the second engine was increased by 250%. In addition, improvement of vent line equipment has reduced work process and increased normal operation time and operation rate. In terms of economic efficiency, it also showed a sales increase of KRW 77,000 / year. By applying the strengthening and improvement measures of operating standards, it is possible to reduce the stoppage of the biogas plant, increase the utilization rate, It is judged to be an operational plan.

Memorials to the King and the Intellectual history in the Late Joseon Dynasty (상소(上疏)를 통해 본 조선후기 지식인의 재편 - 이경석·박세당 평가와 관련한 노론계의 상소를 중심으로 -)

  • Song, Hyok Key
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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    • no.59
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    • pp.121-156
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    • 2015
  • Memorials in Joseon Dynasty created a arena where the intellectual and political power met. This thesis traces the process of a certain political faction's rebuilding of the political structure of the elite groups by leading the intellectual controversies through memorials, especially those about the evaluations of Pak Setang(朴世堂) and I Gyeongseok(李景奭). This is what happened: Song Siyeol(宋時烈) submitted a memorial which disputed I Gyeongseok's petition, which provoked complete controversies around the memorials between Noron(老論) and Soron(少論). This led to the academic censorship against Sabyeonrok written by Pak Setang. The analysis of act of writing and submission of memorials by Noron and the role of the Kim Family of An-dong(安東 金門) specifically is the main topic here. The members of Soron ceaselessly criticized Song Siyeol, while the Kim Family strongly defended him. The trigger of the strife was a letter written by Kim Chang-Heup(金昌翕), a member of the Kim Family and the Kims played a significant role in the background during the process of political fights using memorials. The series of memorials criticized or supported certain political figure or his writings, but the opinions of Noron and Soron were directly opposite to each other. Even though the expressed difference was the result of the existing political factions, however, it also caused the new power structure of elite groups. The expressions and logics used in the arguments also have its significance. The Noron's memorials evaluated the contemporary people and their writings based on Chu-Hsi and Song Siyeol, who was regarded as a identical figure of Chu-Hsi. The arguments and writing strategies in this regard gained political strength enough to reorganize the intellectual society by changing alignment of political parties, and this led to the rebuilding of academic environment afterward.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Extreme Job, How Will We Survive Since "Candlelight Protest"? -A Revival of Comic Mode and a Comedy Film in the Age of Self-Management (<극한직업>, '촛불혁명' 이후 어떻게 버티며 살아남을 것인가? -코믹 모드의 부활과 자기경영 시대의 코미디영화)

  • Chung, Young-Kwon
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.221-254
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    • 2020
  • This paper finds a solution in the social context which cannot be explained thoroughly by well-timed release date, revival of comedy films, and the attraction of Lee Byeong-heon's comedy etc. while it throws question of how the film, Extreme Job captivated 16 million audience. The incredible hits of Extreme Job cannot be explained by analyzing the text alone. After this essay investigates a function and a role of comedy as a public sphere, it examines people's desires and wishes in the comedy and other genres since 2008 when the conservative government has seized power. Since 2008 a series of dark tone's action thriller, social problem film, and disaster film have emerged, these genres showed absence of public security, crisis of democracy and criticism against rulling class. On the other hand, hit comedy films have showed escapism such as weepie, nostalgia, and fantasy at the same time, generally. Although Veteran (2015) is not full-blown comedy, after this film's big success, "comic mode" has gradually revived. A light tone's films which are truer to genre rules has started representing the wishes of people toward social reforms and changes. Meanwhile, "Candlelight Protest" served as a momentum to recover the democracy which has been in crisis, but it could not lead changes in economic and daily lives. Exreme Job can be read as a question how we will survive since "Candlight Protest." The lives of detectives as self-employed workers who has taken over a fried chicken restaurant for going undercover are appearances of ordinary persons who must survive in the edless conpetition. Furthermore, this film shows a dream of a "great success myth" which becomes well-known as a famous restaurant and a self-management such as brand-naming and an exapansion of franchise business. We can read ganster's chicken franchises as a huge distribution industry which disturbs market system by delivering drugs secretly. While applauses that we give to the police having identities of self-employed workers which sweeps the ganster are giving support to oridinary neighborhood like us, they are also wishes of people who long for the restoration of publicness of police in the market which is becoming increasingly privatized today. A significance of this essay is to examine Extreme Job in terms of the geography of film genres and the revival of comic mode sicne 2008 at the macro level, and is to read the film in the perspective of the problems of economic and daily lives which has been still unsolved since "Candlelight Protest" at the micro level.

Mechanical and Operational Factors Affecting the Efficiency of Rice Polishing Machines (정미기의 능률에 미치는 기계적 요인및 작동조건에 관한 연구)

  • No, Sang-Ha
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.15-15
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    • 1976
  • In analyzing the operational characteristics of a rice whitening machine, the internal radial pressure of the machine was measured using strain gage equipment. Changes in cylinder and feed screw configurations, screen type, cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels were examined to determine their impact on the quality and quantity of milled rice and the performance of the machine. The results are summarized as follows: 1. The internal radial pressure in the whitening chamber varied with the surface condition of the grain being processed. During the first or second pass through the machine, pressure was relatively low, reached a maximum after two to three passes with combinations I and II, three to six with combination III and then began to fall. 2. The pitch of the feed screw and the size of the feed gate opening which determine the rate of entry of grain into the whitening chamber, appeared to be the most important factor aff-::cting the degree of radial pressure, quality and quantity of milled rice and the efficiency of the machine. Using a feed screw with a wide pitch (4.8cm), radial pressure was relatively high and head rice recovery ratio \vere quite low. In this case capacity and machine effic?iency were much higher than obtained when using a feed screw with a narrow pitch (2.3cm). Very significant responses in radial pressure, head rice recovery rates and machine capacity were observed with changes in cylinder speed and counter-pressure levels when using the wide pitch feed screw. 3. The characteristics of the screen which surrounds the whitening chamber had an important effect on whitening efficiency. The existence of small protuberances on the original screen resulted in significant increases in both machine capacity and efficiency but without a significant decrease in head rice recovery or development of excessive radial pressure. Further work is required to determine the effects of screen surface conditions and the shape of the cylinderical steel roller on the rate of bran removal, machine efficiency and recovery rates. The size of the slotted perforations 0:1 the screen affects total milled rice recovery. The opening size on the original screen was fabricated to accommodate the round shape of Japonica rice varieties but was not suitable for the more slender Indica type. Milling Indica varieties with this screen resulted in a reduction in total milled rice recovery. 4. An increase in cylinder speed from 380 to 820 rpm produced a positive effect on head rice recovery for all machine combinations at every level of counter-pressure used in the tests. Head rice recovery was considerably lower at 380rpm using a wide screw pitch when compared to the results obtained at speeds from 600 to 820 r.p.m. The effects of cylinder speed On radial pressure, capacity and machine efficiency showed contrasting results, depending on the width of the feed screw pitch. With a narrow feed screw pitch (2.3cm), a direct proportional relationship was observed bet?ween cylinder speed and both radial pressure and machine efficiency. In contrast, using a 4.8 centimeter pitch feed roller produced a series of inverse relationships between the above variables. Based on the results of this study it is recommended when milling Indica type long grain rice varieties that the cylinder speed of the original machine be increased from 500-600 rmp up to a minimum of 800 rpm to obtain a greater abrasive effect between the grain and the screen. The pitch of the feed screw should be also reduced to decr?ease the level of internal radial pressure and to obtain higher machine efficiency and increased quality of milled rice with increased cylinder speeds. Further study on the interaction between cylinder speed and feed screw pitch is recommended. 5. An increase in the counter pressure level produced a negative effect On the head rice recovery with an increase in radial pressure, capacity, and machine efficiency over all combinations and at every level of cylinder speed. 6. Head rice recovery rates were conditioned primarily by the pressure inside the whitening chamber. According to the empirical cha racteristics curve developed in this study, the relationships of head rice recovery ($Y_h$) and machine capacity ($Y_c$/TEX>) to internal radial pressure ($X_p$) followed an inverse quadratic function and a linear function respectively: $$Y_h^\Delta=\frac{1}{{1.4383-0.2951X_p^\ast+0.1425X_p^{\ast\ast}}^2} , (R^2=0.98)$$$$Y_c^\Delta=-305.83+374.37X_p^{\ast\ast}, (R^2=0.88)$$The correlation between capacity and power consumption per unit of brown rice expressed in the following exponential function: $$Y_c^\Delta=1.63Y_c^{-0.7786^\{\ast\ast}, (R^2=0.94)$$These relationships indicate that when radial pressure increases above a certain range (1. 6 to 2.0 kg/$cm^2$ based On the results of the experiment) head ricerecovery decrea?ses in a quadratic relation with a inear increase in capacity but without any decrease in power consump tion per unit of brown rice. On the other hand, if radial pressure is below the range shown above, power consumption increases dramatically with a lin?ear decrease in capacity but without significant increases in head rice recovery. During the operation of a given whitening machine, the optimum radial pressure range or the correct capacity range should be selected by controlling the feed rate and/or counter-pressure keeping in mind the condition of the grain, particulary the hardness. It was observed that the total number of passes is related to radial pessure level, feed rate and counter-pressure level. The higher theradial pressure the fewer num?ber of pass required but with decreased head rice recovery. In particular, when using high feed rates, the total number of passes should be increased to more than three by reducing the counter-pressure level to avoid decreaseases in head rice recovery (less than 65 percent head rice recovery on the basis of brown rice) at every cylinder speed. 7. A rapid rise in grain temperature seemed to have a close relationship with the pressure generated inside the whitening chamber and, subsequently with head rice reco?very rates. The higher the rate of increase, the lower were the resulting head rice recoveries.