• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.457-493
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• 2009

This paper evaluates major issues of Post-Kyoto negotiation of UNFCCC and conducted economic analysis by utilizing a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model(GTEM-KOR). It points three major agendas of the negotiation to be settled : (1) return of the US to GHG abatement commitment; (2) participation of developing countries in GHG abatement commitment; and (3) development of a comprehensive approach for post-Kyoto period. It also emphasizes the differentiation of developing countries and the type and strength of commitment as the negotiation issues for settlement of those agendas. The analysis by using GTEM-KOR shows the differentiation between developing countries based on per capita GDP and/or per capita emissions is inefficient in terms of global GHG emission reduction and it will exposure Korea to strong pressure of commitment relative to other developing countries. It also shows that the participation of developing countries such as China and India is one of the most important factors for the environmental effectiveness of the Post-Kyoto regime. It emphasizes that the relative strength of commitment and the scope of country participation rather than type of commitment are major components determining the economic and environmental effectiveness of the Post-Kyoto regime.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.98 no.1
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• pp.55-65
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• 2009

Annex I parties continued its consideration of how to address, the definitions, modalities, rules and guidelines for the treatment of Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol by the year of 2009. In the AWG-KP conference held in Accra, Ghana in 2008, four alternatives (gross-net carbon accounting, net-net with base year or base period accounting, net-net with forward looking baseline accounting, and land-based accounting method) for negotiations were decided in order to revise gross-net accounting method applied during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, alternative scenarios are set in consideration with reporting system (voluntary or compulsory), discount factors and cap about these three alternatives except for the method of net-net with forward looking baseline accounting, and then estimates the Removal Unit (RMU) among the countries. In the case that article 3.4 activities under the Kyoto Protocol revises from voluntary reporting to mandatory reporting, it is estimated that the loss of RMU would be huge in Russia, Australia, New Zealand, as well as Canada potentially. Net-net with base year or base period carbon accounting and land-based carbon accounting method have big difference of RMU in accordance with the base year or the base period. So the more unfavorable the country with a lot of old-age forests was, the closer the base year or period comes to the commitment period in the context of RMU. If it is getting lowered for the current rate of 85% in discount factors, RMU is getting higher to the whole countries. Therefore in Korea with little potential for afforestation and reforestation, there was the most sensitive response to the change of discount factors. Post-2012 LULUCF hereafter, it is strongly expected for the succession of current carbon accounting system which is voluntary reporting of gross-net carbon accounting and the activity for article 3.4. Other carbon accounting method is hard to accept in aspect that there is big differentiated interests among the countries and it is required enormous cost and time to develop reliable method. Provide for Post-2012 mandatory greenhouse gas reduction, Korea needs to have a competitive negotiation strategies differentiated from Annex I countries. The most reliable alternative would be to lower the discounting factors about the activities for forest management.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.115-142
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• 2010

The voluntary mid-term greenhouse gas(GHG) emission reduction targets for 2020 among major developed and developing countries were evaluated by using the global computable general equilibrium(CGE) model. The GHG emissions of developed countries were estimated to be reduced by 14.0% from 1990 level, which implies that the GHG reduction targets of developed countries should be strengthened to reach agreement in future post-Kyoto negotiations. The voluntary participation of developing countries for GHG emissions reduction contributed to global GHG emissions reduction by 15.9% from 1990 levels, which were led by the participation of China and India. These outcomes imply that the reinforcement of GHG emission reduction targets in developed countries and the wider participation of developing countries will be necessary for the environmental effectiveness of the post-Kyoto regime. Emissions reduction based on voluntary targets will decrease the global real GDP by 1.18%.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.149-170
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• 2012

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, Durban 2011, ended on December 12, 2011, 36 hours over its schedule, delivering the Durban Package, which consisted of, inter alia, the extension of the period for Kyoto Protocol term and the launch of Ad-hoc working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action. Despite the positive progress made in Durban, the future of post-2012 climate regime still seems cloudy. Before the Durban conference, some of Annex I countries with emissions reduction commitment under the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period openly declared their intention not to participate in the second one, reducing the effectiveness of Durban agreement. Parties to the conference have a long list of difficult issues disturbing the materialization of the new legal agreement in 2020 such as level of mitigation targets of individual countries and legal nature of their commitment. Given this uncertainty, the Korean government should reinforce its domestic climate policies rather than settling in the fact that it remains as a non-Annex I county party under the Durban Agreement due to the extension of the Kyoto Protocol period. Domestically, it needs to continue to raise the public awareness for rigorous climate policies to transit its economy to low carbon pathway which reduces the country's dependency on fossil fuel in the long term. It is also important to implement cost effective climate policies to cope with domestic resistance and international competitiveness. Internationally, its priority would be working for trust-building in the on-going negotiation meetings to encourage meaningful participation of all parties.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.246-257
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• 2009

Regarding climate change, the most significant challenge the world faces is achieving the goal of stabilizing the global concentration of greenhouse gases. However, this cannot be accomplished by greenhouse gas reduction efforts of developed countries alone. In this context, a "sectoral approach" has been brought up as a way to overcome the limit of the Kyoto Protocol and induce the participation of developing countries. This paper focuses on the different types of sectoral approaches that have been suggested so far, and their criteria, scope and effectiveness. It therefore explores the potential each approach has as a policy alternative under the post-2012 scheme. On top of that, with the possibility of these sectoral approaches becoming strong future policy alternatives in mind, this paper also analyzes their applicability to the Korean industry. For the steel, petrochemical and oil industries - in which energy efficiency exceeds the world average- a technology-based approach is proposed as an alternative. For the cement, paper and power generation industries - in which energy efficiency is about the same as the global average - a sectoral crediting mechanism or an index-based approach or a sector-wide transnational approach are proposed as alternatives. Lastly, this paper suggests a future research direction for their adoption and implementation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.98 no.3
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• pp.263-271
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• 2009

This study aims to identify negotiation alternatives related to Post-2012 reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) and enhancement of forest carbon stock (EFCS) activities. It also aims to recommend a negotiation strategy considering environmental integrity and national interest on the basis of estimating reduction potentials of each alternative on the assumption that tradable carbon credits play an important role as positive incentives. In order to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potentials and income potential from RED and EFCS activities, 99 countries were selected by the Global Forest Resources Assessment of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. A 'baseline and credit' method was applied to estimate RED activities. Gross-net and net-net methods were applied for EFCS activities. According to the results, Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have more potential to get positive incentives through RED, while China, Chile, and the Republic of Korea have more potential to get positive incentives through EFCS. This study suggests including both RED and EFCS activities in the boundary of policy approaches and endowment of positive incentives to consider GHG reduction potentials in the global scale and equity among developing countries. Making a discount rate application of forest management activities can be also recommended to factor out the effects of human-induced activities by EFCS activities.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.55-81
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• 2007

Most studies on $CO_2$ abatement cost with a computational general equilibrium(CGE) model focus on a specific country. On the contrary, this study compares and analyses the $CO_2$ abatement cost functions across 20 countries, consisting of OECD countries, China and Brazil, with a CGE model. For this purpose, we estimate the GDP loss from $CO_2$ emission reduction, assuming the 4 sector model. Our findings show that those cost curves are convex but different among the countries. However, despite of the difference in the cost curios, we have found that one group of countries has the relatively constant average abatement cost and the other group has the increasing average cost. The reason why such a pattern occurs is explained in terms of the variations of value-added and $Co_2$ emission coefficient by sector across the countries. As an environmental policy implication, this study presents information about which country is similar to one another in terms of the abatement cost.