• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.61-84
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• 2023

In this paper, I tried to clarify the background of the strengthening of centralization in the central-local relations during the Xi Jinping period in terms of the institutional structure of elite politics through a comparative study of the composition of the provincial sector of the Politburo, the highest power body, during the time of Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping. Compared to the Hu Jintao period, it is judged that the strengthening of centralization in the Xi Jinping era is being implemented not through the neutralization of institutionalized formal construction norms, but through the expansion of control within the norms. In other words, the institutionalized frame itself was not broken in the composition of the provincial sector of the Politburo, and local compliance with the central government centered on the general secretary was increased by exercising the right to control personnel more strongly.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.105-138
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• 2011

The 11th Congress of the Vietnamese Communist Party(VCP) held in January 2011 was the forum to reconfirm the gradual reform. By analysing the documents submitted to the Congress, it can be realized that the VCP's reform policy reveals the compromise between conservative and progressive perspectives by "the Socialist-oriented Market Economy". The VCP proposes to proceed the balanced reform for the sustainable development by multi-sector economy to achieve the basis of the modern state by 2020 on the one hand and also urges to strive against "the peaceful evolution" to defend the socialist regime from abroad as well as within the party itself on the other hand. In personnel structure of the Central Committee and Politburo, this term of the Party still keeps the balance of the localities and sectors of the society. No big change was in the selection of top leaders, as almost of them were promoted slightly in the existing echelon of the Politburo. On the prospect of the reform process Vietnam will continue the reform as gradual as before.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.163-191
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• 2017

This article aims to review the recent, especially focusing on the year of 2016, situations and prospects of the Vietnamese politics, economy, and international relations. Politically, Vietnam completed the election of members for the National Assembly and organized new leadership at the 12th National Congress of the Vietnamese Communist Party in 2016. One characteristic of the new leadership is that the politicians, especially the members of politburo, from the North continue to occupy the position of majority. The other one is that the new leadership promised to carry out the restructuring of economy toward industries producing higher value-added commodities even though Vietnam industries admittedly need to accelerate present industrialization and modernization as a developing country under the seemingly contradictory slogan of "the development of market economy for socialism." The declared goals of the new leadership in Vietnam are inevitable in a sense since the development of Vietnamese economy has been heavily dependent upon Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) taking advantage of Vietnamese cheap labor and simultaneously it is evident that its future is unsecure if it maintains status quo. In fact, the Vietnamese economy has impressively showed high growth rate by the help of foreign capitals since 1990s despite the repetitive recessions of global economy but its growth is not likely to be sustainable anymore if it will not reduce foreign dependency and social economic inequality in a long term. In a short run, global economic recession, the financial and monetary policies of global powers, and recent protectionism and uncertainty of trade agreements will be three crucial variables to affect Vietnamese economy. In terms of international relations, Vietnam is continuously expected to practise the policy of checks and balances among the powerful countries. Vietnam has seriously disputed with China on islands sovereignty in the South China Sea and attempted to maintain close relationship with other powerful countries including especially America. However, mainly due to the new protectionism by the regime of American president Donald Trump, the Vietnamese government also need to keep close relationship with China increasingly for both economic and diplomatic security. Under the circumstances, Vietnam is expected to maintain more practical and balanced international relations.

• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.115-145
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• 2023

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (hereafter referred to as "the 20th National Congress") was under the global spotlight long before it was held for seven days from 16 to 22 October 2022. People wondered whether Xi Jinping would secure a third term as China's leader or whether he would lay the foundations to be in power forever during the third term. In Korea, the press and media questioned whether the event would become the "crowning of Emperor Xi (Xi Huangdi)," whose power rivaled that of the first emperor in China, Shi Hunagdi, and featured the scene where Hu Jintao was forced to leave the venue during the Congress. On the other hand, many Korean academics focused more on how Xi would organize the Politburo and its Standing Committee and whether the outline of his heirs would appear during the event. This tendency in academia in turn worsened the media's concerns. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the 20th National Congress Report, as opposed to an analysis of Xi's political intentions at the event. The National Congress Report outlines the Party's visions, goals, and strategies for the next five years in politics, economy, society, culture, foreign affairs, and relationship with Taiwan. The authoritative document is rich in narrative and logic and deserves academic study. This research analyzes the 18th, 19th, and 20th Reports by identifying their keywords and regular expressions and checking their frequency and percentage through text-mining methods. This approach enables the quantification and visualization of the significant changes in the Party's sovereign vision over the fifteen years of Xi's rule from 2013 to 2027.