• Title/Summary/Keyword: Panel Cointegration Analysis

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The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Korea's Exports of Machinery Intermediate Goods to East Asian Countries: Around the Global Financial Crisis (환율변동성이 동아시아 국가에 대한 한국의 기계류 중간재 수출에 미치는 영향: 글로벌 금융위기 전후를 중심으로)

  • Jung, Moon-Hyun
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.169-198
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the export of Korean machinery intermediate goods to East Asian countries using the export demand model. In order to secure the validity of the estimation of the exchange rate volatility for the export of machinery intermediate goods, various methods of volatility measurement are used including the GARCH model, the moving average standard deviation and the 12-month fixed average standard deviation. The long-term relationship between variables was analyzed by applying the panel cointegration tests and DOLS & FMOLS panel estimations. Analysis results found that prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, the total exports of machinery and exchange rate volatility positively affect the exports of intermediate goods such as general machinery, electronic machinery and transportation equipment, but did not affect the exports of precision machinery intermediate goods. After the global financial crisis, however, exchange rate volatility negatively affected total exports and the exports of all machinery intermediate goods. When analyzing the period before and after the global financial crisis, it had a positive impact on exports of precision machinery intermediate goods and a negative effect on total exports and the exports of other machinery intermediate goods.

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Currency Valuation, Export Competitiveness, and Firm Profitability: Evidence from Bangladeshi Firm-Level Data

  • CHOI, Sunghee
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2021
  • The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate whether and how domestic currency valuation is related to firm-level export competitiveness and profitability by using the unique firm-specific dataset on Bangladeshi nonfinancial firms which have been listed continuously from 2010 to 2018. To achieve the aim of this paper, 63 exporting firms are extracted from a total of 125 firms which have been continuously listed during 2010-2018 and used as the final sample firms. The Pedroni cointegration test reveals that export and import prices of the exporting firms are cointegrated in the short-run as well as long-run. The panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) analysis finds that a firm's export competitiveness is maintained by high import inputs even in the presence of depreciation of Bangladeshi currency against the US dollar. Finally, the DuPont analysis finds that the depreciated Bangladeshi currency enhances an exporter's profitability. Conclusions based on the findings are consistent regardless of exchange rate types, such as, real bilateral exchange rate and nominal or real effective exchange rate indexes. Consequently, the firm-level findings of this investigation suggest that undervalution of home currency is essential for Bangaldesh which is one of the frontier markets in South Asia whose exporting firms are mostly price followers in global markets.

The Causal Relationship Test between Marine Business Cycle and Shipping Market Using Heterogeneous Mixed Panel Framework (해운경기변동과 선박시장에 대한 다차원 혼합 패널 인과성 분석)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sok;Chang, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2020
  • Using panel data on freight rates and ship prices in the dry freighter market from January 2015 to December 2019, this study investigates the characteristics of shipping industry fluctuations. The analysis aims at two aspects of academic contribution. First, this study analyzes the relationship between shipping indicators and ship price based on separate dry-bulk ships, while the previous research considered the overall shipping index and weighted average ship prices. Second, the VAR model for the causality test is extended to a heterogeneous mixed panel model capable of limiting coefficients. There is a peak estimated by removing the cross-correlation problem, which is mainly raised in panel data analysis, using bootstrap estimation and solving the problem of information loss due to differences in non-stationary data. An empirical investigation of the causal relationship between economic fluctuations and ship price shows that the effect on the ship price from the freight is significant at the 1% level. This implies that there is a one-way relationship with demand in the shipping industry rather than a bilateral relationship.

The Impact of Regional Economic Growth on Intraregional Disparities in Korea (지역경제 성장에 따른 지역 내부의 경제적 격차 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ju-Han;Kim, Donghyun
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.29-40
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    • 2020
  • The aims of this study to identify the relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional regional disparities. The 16 metropolitan area, the Capital region and the southeastern region of Korea were put in the spatial scope and the time range from 2005 to 2016. Regional gross domestic product data were used to show regional growth and intraregional disparity. Panel data for each spatial unit were established, panel unit root test and panel cointegration test were conducted to check the stability of the data. The DOLS method was used to identify relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, and the VECM model and Granger causality test was conducted to verify causality. The result of analysis of 16 metropolitan area units showed that the intraregional disparity increases as regional economic growth progresses. When the regional gross domestic product increased by 1%, the intraregional disparity increased by 1.258%, and there are short-term and long-term causality. Both the Capital region and the southeastern region had a mutual relationship between regional economic growth and intraregional disparity, but the disparity in the Capital region showed an increase and the southeastern region showed a decrease. The results of this study show that the regional disparity is increasing nationwide, but the Capital region and the southeastern region showed different stages of growth.

A Study on Changes in Industrial Value Added Response to Oil Prices in Korean (한국경제의 유가에 대한 산업부가가치 반응변화 연구)

  • Yoon Kyung Kim;Ji Whan Kim
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.447-456
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    • 2023
  • Even after 2000, oil prices rose enough to be comparable to the past, but the impact on economic variables was relatively stable. Therefore, this study tries to empirically examine that the response of the Korean economy to oil prices has changed since the 1998 financial crisis, when there was a structural change in the Korean economy. Through empirical analysis, it was tested that the influence of oil prices and producer prices on consumer prices had changed in the period before and after 1998, and that the influence of producer prices on the value-added ratio by industry sector also changed. This means that the transfer of the increase in production cost to consumer prices has been alleviated, and the impact on added value has also been alleviated. Various studies should be conducted to understand the causes of the empirical results, such as changes in the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices, factors in the industrial sector due to rising oil prices, and changes in products.