Economic and Environmental Geology (자원환경지질)

The Korean Society of Economic and Environmental Geology (대한자원환경지질학회)
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A Study on Changes in Industrial Value Added Response to Oil Prices in Korean

한국경제의 유가에 대한 산업부가가치 반응변화 연구

  • Yoon Kyung Kim (Department of Economics, Ewha Womans University) ;
  • Ji Whan Kim (Future Geo-Strategy Research Center, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources)
  • 김윤경 (이화여자대학교 경제학과) ;
  • 김지환 (한국지질자원연구원 미래전략연구센터)
  • Received : 2023.04.28
  • Accepted : 2023.07.04
  • Published : 2023.08.30
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Abstract

Even after 2000, oil prices rose enough to be comparable to the past, but the impact on economic variables was relatively stable. Therefore, this study tries to empirically examine that the response of the Korean economy to oil prices has changed since the 1998 financial crisis, when there was a structural change in the Korean economy. Through empirical analysis, it was tested that the influence of oil prices and producer prices on consumer prices had changed in the period before and after 1998, and that the influence of producer prices on the value-added ratio by industry sector also changed. This means that the transfer of the increase in production cost to consumer prices has been alleviated, and the impact on added value has also been alleviated. Various studies should be conducted to understand the causes of the empirical results, such as changes in the relationship between producer prices and consumer prices, factors in the industrial sector due to rising oil prices, and changes in products.

2000년 이후에도 유가상승은 과거에 비견될 수 있을 만큼 상승하였으나 경제성장, 소비 등 경제변수들에 미치는 영향은 상대적으로 안정적인 모습을 보였다. 이에 본 연구는 우리 경제에 구조변화가 있었던 1998년 외환위기 시점을 기준으로 유가에 대한 우리 경제의 반응이 변화하였음을 실증적으로 보이고자 한다. 실증분석을 통해 1998년을 기준으로 전후 기간에 대해 유가 및 생산자물가가 소비자물가에 미치는 영향이 변화하였음을 확인하였고, 이어 산업부문별 부가가치율에 생산자물가가 미치는 영향도 변화하였음을 확인하였다. 이는 생산비용 상승의 소비자 가격에 전가가 완화되었으며 부가가치에도 영향이 완화되었음을 의미한다. 실증분석 결과의 원인에 대해서는 생산자물가와 소비자물가 간의 관계변화 및 그 원인, 유가상승에 따른 산업부문의 요소투입 및 생산품 변화 등 다양한 접근의 연구가 수행되어야 할 것이다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 한국지질자원연구원 기본사업(GP2020-05; 23-3214)의 재원으로 수행되었습니다.

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