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The Transmission of Foreign Disturbances into a Small Country (해외경제교란이 소국경제에 미치는 영향)

  • Son, Il-Tae
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.3-29
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    • 2010
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the transmission of domestic and foreign real and monetary disturbances into a small country with heavy imports of intermediate goods, and to analyze how the wage indexation in a small country affects the transmission of foreign disturbances into a small country. We consider the two countries, a small country and the rest of the world, two goods, and rational expectations world model under flexible exchange rate system with perfect capital mobility. We find out that foreign disturbances are transmitted into a small country through the price channel, the foreign output multiplier channel, and the nominal interest rate channel, and the foreign real balance channel. We have conducted an empirical investigation by using the Korean data for a small country and the U.S. data for a large country to see how real and monetary disturbances originating from the US affects the Korean economy with wage indexation.

LSTM-based Prediction Performance of COVID-19 Fear Index on Stock Prices: Untact Stocks versus Contact Stocks (LSTM 기반 COVID-19 공포지수의 주가 예측 성과: 언택트 주식과 콘택트 주식)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.329-338
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    • 2022
  • As the non-face-to-face economic situation developed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, untact stock groups appeared in the stock market. This study proposed the Korea COVID-19 fear index following the spread of infectious diseases in the COVID-19 pandemic situation and analyzed the influence on the untact stock and contact stock returns. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, as a result of the Granger causality analysis using the Korea COVID-19 fear index, significant causality was found in the return of contact stocks such as Korean Air, Hana Tour, CJ CGV, and Paradise. Second, as a result of stock price prediction based on the LSTM model, Kakao, Korean Air, and Naver's prediction performance was high. Third, the investment performances of the Alexander filter entry rule using the predicted stock price were high in Naver futures and Kakao futures. This study can find a difference from previous studies in that it analyzed the influence of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on untact and contact stocks in the COVID-19 situation where the non-face-to-face economy is in full swing.

Media-based Analysis of Gasoline Inventory with Korean Text Summarization (한국어 문서 요약 기법을 활용한 휘발유 재고량에 대한 미디어 분석)

  • Sungyeon Yoon;Minseo Park
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.509-515
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    • 2023
  • Despite the continued development of alternative energies, fuel consumption is increasing. In particular, the price of gasoline fluctuates greatly according to fluctuations in international oil prices. Gas stations adjust their gasoline inventory to respond to gasoline price fluctuations. In this study, news datasets is used to analyze the gasoline consumption patterns through fluctuations of the gasoline inventory. First, collecting news datasets with web crawling. Second, summarizing news datasets using KoBART, which summarizes the Korean text datasets. Finally, preprocessing and deriving the fluctuations factors through N-Gram Language Model and TF-IDF. Through this study, it is possible to analyze and predict gasoline consumption patterns.

Influencing Factors of Cross Border E-commerce Export: Focusing on Product Characteristic (전자상거래 수출 영향요인 연구: 품목별 특성을 중심으로)

  • Jin-Kyu Kim;Yoon Lee
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.199-216
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    • 2023
  • Rapidly growing cross-border e-commerce exhibits different characteristics from traditional trade. This paper empirically investigates influencing factors of CBEC trade between Korea and foreign countries including product characteristics, such as product type and unit price. We construct panel data based on Korea's e-commerce export data by country and product and analyze it by the OLS, fixed effect, and random effect estimation. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: geographical distance still remained as an obstacle to the CBEC trade, product unit price, and durable consumer goods dummy variables positively affect e-commerce export of Korea, and capital goods dummy variables negatively affect e-commerce export. This research can help us understand the characteristics of cross-border e-commerce and can be used as a basis for future research using product-specific data.

Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Predicting the Direction of KOSPI Securities (코스피 방향 예측을 위한 하이브리드 머신러닝 모델)

  • Hwang, Heesoo
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2021
  • In the past, there have been various studies on predicting the stock market by machine learning techniques using stock price data and financial big data. As stock index ETFs that can be traded through HTS and MTS are created, research on predicting stock indices has recently attracted attention. In this paper, machine learning models for KOSPI's up and down predictions are implemented separately. These models are optimized through a grid search of their control parameters. In addition, a hybrid machine learning model that combines individual models is proposed to improve the precision and increase the ETF trading return. The performance of the predictiion models is evaluated by the accuracy and the precision that determines the ETF trading return. The accuracy and precision of the hybrid up prediction model are 72.1 % and 63.8 %, and those of the down prediction model are 79.8% and 64.3%. The precision of the hybrid down prediction model is improved by at least 14.3 % and at most 20.5 %. The hybrid up and down prediction models show an ETF trading return of 10.49%, and 25.91%, respectively. Trading inverse×2 and leverage ETF can increase the return by 1.5 to 2 times. Further research on a down prediction machine learning model is expected to increase the rate of return.

An Analysis on the Determinants of Mountainous and Coastal Area's Housing Value Caused by the Characteristics of the Natural Environment (자연환경 특성에 따른 산지형 및 해안형 아파트의 주거가치 상승 결정요인 비교 분석)

  • Choi, Yeol;Kim, Hyeong Jun;Kim, Su Jin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.811-819
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to analyze determinants of mountainous and coastal area's housing value caused by the characteristics of the natural environment. As the current issue of housing value is throwing the spotlight on the climate change recently, environmental features are significantly important than before. There were a lot of studies on the influence of environmental characteristics to the housing price but these studies were mostly dealing with the housing price in especially apartments nearby Han-river in Seoul, South Korea. To have differences with existing studies, environmental characteristics estimating housing value are classified as 8 elements including the view, the wind speed, and the humidity. The result of this study is in following; there were few significant environmental variables in mountainous housing value growth model. This means people living in mountainous area recognize on environmental factors more such as housing or complex characteristics. People living in coastal area are much more sensitive environment variables in their residence value than mountainous area. Especially, the view for the ocean is the most important variable in housing value, and wind speed is second positively significant. Humidity and safety of disaster are negatively significant variables.

Risk Spillover between Shipping Company's Stock Price and Marine Freight Index (해운선사 주가와 해상운임지수 사이의 위험 전이효과)

  • Choi Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the risk spillover of BDI on shipping company stock prices through the Copula-CoVaR method based on daily data from January 4, 2010, to October 31, 2022. The main empirical analysis results and policy implications are as follows. First, copula results showed that there was a weak dependence between BDI and shipping company stock prices, and PAN, KOR, and YEN were selected as the most fitting model for dynamic Student-t copula, HMM was selected as the rotated Gumbel copula, and KSS was selected as the best model. Second, in the results of CoVaR, it was confirmed that the upside (downside) CoVaR was significantly different from the upside (downside) VaR in all shipping companies. This means that BDI has a significant risk spillover on shipping companies. In addition, as for the risk spillover, the downside risk is generally lower than the upside risk, so the downside and upside risk spillover were found to be asymmetrical. Therefore, policymakers should strengthen external risk supervision and establish differentiated policies suitable for domestic conditions to prevent systematic risks from BDI shocks. And investors should reflect external risks from BDI fluctuations in their investment decisions and construct optimal investment portfolios to avoid risks. On the other hand, investors propose that the investment portfolio should be adjusted in consideration of the asymmetric characteristics of up and down risks when making investment decisions.

Assessment of Carsington Dam Failure by Slope Stability and Dam Behavior Analyses (사면안정 해석과 댐 거동분석을 통한 Carsington Dam 파괴의 고찰)

  • 송정락;김성인
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 1991.10a
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    • pp.87-102
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    • 1991
  • It has been reported that the failure of Carsington Dam in Eng1and occured due to the existence of a thin yellow clay layer which was not identified during the design work, and due to pre-existing shears of the clay layer. The slope stability analyses during the design work, which utilized traditional circular arc type failure method and neglected the existence of the clay layer, showed a safety factor of 1.4. However, the post-failure analyses which utilized translational failure mode considering the clay layer and the pre-existing shear deformation revealed the reduction of safety factor to unity. The post-failure analysis assumed 10。 inclination of the horizontal forces onto each slice based on the results of finite element analyses. In this paper, Bishop's simplified method, Janbu method, and Morgenstern-Price method were used for the comparison of both circular and translational failure analysis methods. The effects of the pre-existing shears and subsquent movement were also considered by varying the soil strength parameters and the pore pressure ratio according to the given soi1 parameters. The results showed factor of safefy 1.387 by Bishop's simplified method(STABL) which assumed circular arc failure surface and disregarding yellow clay layer and pre-failure material properties. Also the results showed factor of safety 1.093 by Janbu method(STABL) and 0.969 by Morgenstern-Price method(MALE) which assumed wedge failure surface and considerd yellow clay layer using post failure material properties. In addition, dam behavior was simulated by Cam-Clay model FEM program. The effects of pore pressure changes with loading and consolidation, and strength reduction near or at failure were also considered based on properly assumed stress-strain relationship and pore pressure characteristics. The results showed that the failure was initiated at the yellow clay layer and propagated through other zones by showing that stress and displacement were concentrated at the yel1ow clay layer.

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Omnichannel's Perception Effect on Omnichannel Use and Customer-Brand Relationship (옴니채널의 지각된 편리성과 유용성이 옴니채널 사용과 소비자-브랜드 관계에 미치는 영향)

  • Yim, Duk-Soon;Han, Sang-Seol
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - This study focuses on new type distribution channel that named as Omnichannel. Omnichannel is developed from Multichannel which is used in many distribution channels to buy or selling goods. Omnichannel basically needs an Information and Communications Technologies(ICT) to use, so researcher conduct a Technology Acceptance Model(TAM) to research model. Customer-brand relationship was used as dependent variable to focus on the role of Omnichannel. Research design, data, and methodology - The subject of this study is customer who purchase goods or service through omnichannel. Based on the literature from the preceding research analysis of TAM and customer-brand relationship, this study was constructed by the reference to previous studies, final research model design for figure out casual relationship among perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, omnichannel use and customer-brand relationship. From 2016 February 3 to March 17, questionnaire survey targeted customers who use online and offline channels. 273 questionnaire survey had conducted, then, 252 survey data were available for empirical analysis. Researcher provide descriptive statistics for checking generality. Cronbach's alpha value was used to check the reliability of data. Exploratory factor analysis was used for purification of values and eigenvalue checking. After EFA, Confirmatory factor analysis was used to prepare structural equation modeling with executing structural equation modeling for confirming hypothesis which developed by researcher. Results - The main results of this empirical study are as follows. First, omnichannel's perceived ease of use has positive significant effect on perceived usefulness(estimate: 0.579). Moreover, omnichannel's perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness has positive significant effect on omnichannel use(estimate: 0.325,0.648). Second, using omnichannel has positive significant effect on brand-customer relationship(estimate: 0.521). Every hypothesis adopted as researcher designed. This study found out the intermediate relationship between perceived ease of use and omnichannel use by investigating hypothesis. Conclusions - Base on the empirical result, this study confirmed that TAM theory perceived has relation with omnichannel. First, factors of TAM has positive effect on omnichannel use, so it highlights the important role of customer based interface and usefulness. Especially, perceived usefulness has high indirect influence on ease of use and use of omnichannel. It seems that when customers try to decide use or not use omnichannel, customers focus on percept benefits from omnichannel. Thus, a provider should applicate attractive price table, accurate product or service information and high switching cost strategy to emphasize the usefulness of omnichannel. Second, using omnichannel enhances the relationship between customers and brand, because there are more time and frequency to serve customers. It is important because good relationship between customers can increase the future's financial performance through word of mouse, positive brand image and loyalty to brand or company. Finally, despite of empirical result and implications, this study has limitations. First, there are only a few previous studies about omnicahnnel, so literature reviews are restricted. While set up the factors which can affect the use of omnichannel, next study should be considered with broader theories or models(ex: contingency theory). Second, omnichannel has developed from multichannel, so comparative analysis is needed between these methods because there is a possibility about different forte character of each distribution system on customer's consuming patterns.

Research about muscle ache curer design development for hospital (병원용 근육통증 치료기 디자인 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sung-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.856-859
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    • 2006
  • Patient's position who muscle ache curer for hospital undergoes person entrance and treatment that take advantage of biological, physical force of low frequency and it is equipment that treat body muscle ache, but use equipment when use patient into compensation in hospital specially, that consider everybody is important first of all. This research question investigation with market survey of old product enforce because preference degree reflected officer a result and apply opinion tuned with product development connection engineers on DESIGN direction via typical product design development process close. This curer development research analyzed data involved directly taking advantage of FGI techniques with literature investigation collection. Investigation examined laying stress on muscle ache curer for hospital and a nurse than a doctor answered on question and purchase selection criterion or price portion to user focus. Direct market survey research that see item indicated by competition four provision shortcomings consequently in NEW MODEL development hereafter supplement and expectation. by contributing greatly in M/S security strategy hereafter because design development consisted for side that improve.

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