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Prediction of HIV and AIDS Incidence Using a Back-calculation Model in Korea (후향연산 모형 (Back-calculation model)을 이용한 국내 HIV 감염자와 AIDS 환자의 추계)

  • Lee, Ju-Young;Goh, Un-Yeong;Kee, Mee-Kyung;Kim, Jee-Yun;Hwang, Jin-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.65-71
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    • 2002
  • Objective : To estimate the status of HIV infection and AIDS incidence using a back-calculation model in Korea. Methods : Back-calculation is a method for estimating the past infection rate using AIDS incidence data. The method has been useful for obtaining short-term projections of AIDS incidence and estimating previous HIV prevalence. If the density of the incubation periods is known, together with the AIDS incidence, we can estimate historical HIV infections and forecast AIDS incidence in any time period up to time t. In this paper, we estimated the number of HIV infections and AIDS incidence according to the distribution of various incubation periods Results : The cumulative numbers of HIV infection from 1991 to 1996 were $708{\sim}1,426$ in Weibull distribution and $918{\sim}1,980$ in Gamma distribution. The projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was $16{\sim}25$ in Weibull distribution and $13{\sim}26$ in Gamma distribution. Conclusions : The estimated cumulative HIV infections from 1991 to 1996 were $1.4{\sim}4.0$ times more than notified cumulative HIV infections. Additionally, the projected AIDS incidence in 1997 was less than the notified AIDS cases. The reason for this underestimation derives from the very low level of HIV prevalence in Korea, further research is required for the distribution of the incubation period of HIV infection in Korea, particularly for the effects of combination treatments.

Sex Differences Associated With Hepatitis B Virus Surface Antigen Seropositivity Unwareness in Hepatitis B Virus Surface Antigen-positive Adults: 2007-2012 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

  • Jang, Suk-Yong;Jang, Sung-In;Bae, Hong-Chul;Shin, Jaeyong;Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.74-83
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: To examine the sex-specific factors associated with being unaware of one's hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) seropositivity status in a large, HBsAg-positive population of Koreans. Methods: In total, 1197 subjects aged 19 years or older who were HBsAg-positive according to data from the 2007-2012 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were included. Subjects were considered unaware of their HBsAg seropositivity status if they answered that they had no knowledge of being previously infected by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) or diagnosed with HBV hepatitis. Multivariate Poisson regression models with robust variance estimate were used to assess the significance of the variables using weighted frequencies. Results: The majority (77.8%) of HbsAg-positive Korean adults (females, 81.9%; males, 74.6%) were unaware of their HBsAg seropositivity status. We found that sex (female: prevalence ratio [PR] 1.19), household income (low: PR, 1.15), marital status (never married: PR, 1.18), self-rated health (moderate: PR, 1.14; good: PR, 1.12), and alcohol use (at least 2-3 times/wk: PR, 1.21) were associated with being unaware. In females, age (50 to 59 years: PR, 1.29; ${\geq}70$ years: PR, 1.30), household income (low: PR, 1.37; middle-low: PR, 1.24), and marital status (never married: PR, 1.33) were associated with being unaware. In males, self-rated health (moderate: PR, 1.14; good: PR, 1.21) and alcohol use (at least 2-3 times/wk: PR, 1.21) were associated with being unaware. Conclusions: Factors related to the socioeconomic status of females and the health-related behaviors of males were found to be associated with being unaware of one's HBsAg seropositivity status.

Development of Severity Model for Rural Unsignalized Intersection Crashes (지방부 비신호 교차로 교통사고 심각도 예측모형 개발 - 수도권 주변 및 전라북도 지역의 3지 비신호 교차로를 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Dong-Min;Kim, Eung-Cheol;Sung, Nak-Moon;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2008
  • Generally, accident exposure at intersections is relatively higher than that at roadway segments due to more possibility of merging, diverging, turning, crossing, and weaving maneuver. Furthermore, the traffic accident rate at intersections has been rapidly increasing since 1990's. Since there is more opportunity of conflict at unsignalized intersection, frequency and severity of traffic accident are more severe than signalized intersections. The purpose of the study is to analyze factors causing vehicle crashes and provide intersection design guidelines to improve intersection safety. For this study, vehicle to vehicle crash data of 116 rural 3 legs unsignalized were collected and field surveys were conducted for traffic and geometric conditions. Ordered probit models were developed to analyze the severity of crashes. It was found that weather, obstacles in minor roadsides, presence of major exclusive right lane, presence of major road crosswalk, difference between posted speed of major road and minor road, land-use around intersections, shoulder width of major road, ADT of major road are significant factors for intersection safety.

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Analysis of Rear-End Accidents at 4-legged Signalized Intersections in Cheongju (청주시 4지 신호교차로의 후미추돌사고 분석)

  • Park, Byeong-Ho;Park, Jeong-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2007
  • This study deals with the rear-end accidents of 4-legged signalized intersections in Cheongju. The objectives are to analyze the characteristics of the accidents and to develop the models which explain the relations among the accidents, traffic volumes and geometric structures. In pursuing the above, the study uses the data 308 rear-end accidents occurred at the 106 intersections (2004). The main results analyzed are as follows. First, the rear-end accidents were analyzed to be serious. because the ratio of severe accidents is 77.6%. Second, the more accidents were occurred of in the night than the daytime and in the approaching sections of intersections. In particular, the accidents of large-size struck vehicles were analyzed to be more serious. Finally, the multiple and Poission regression models developed in this study are all analyzed to be statistically significant.

Shoot multiplication kinetics and hyperhydric status of regenerated shoots of gladiolus in agar-solidified and matrix-supported liquid cultures

  • Gupta, S. Dutta;Prasad, V.S.S.
    • Plant Biotechnology Reports
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2010
  • In vitro shoot regeneration of gladiolus in three different culture systems, viz., semi-solid agar (AS), membrane raft (MR), and duroplast foam liquid (DF) cultures was evaluated following the kinetics of shoot multiplication and hyperhydricity at optimized growth regulator combinations. Compared to the AS system, matrixsupported liquid cultures enhanced shoot multiplication. The peak of shoot multiplication rate was attained at 18 days of incubation in the MR and DF systems, whereas the maximum rate in the AS system was attained at 21 days. An early decline in acceleration trend was observed in liquid cultures than the AS culture. The hyperhydric status of the regenerated shoots in the different culture systems was assessed in terms of stomatal attributes and antioxidative status. Stomatal behavior appeared to be normal in the AS and MR systems. However, structural anomaly of stomata such as large, round shaped guard cells with damage in bordering regions of stomatal pores was pronounced in the DF system along with a relatively higher $K^+$ ion concentration than in the AS and MR systems. Antioxidative status of regenerated shoots was comparable in the AS and MR systems, while a higher incidence of oxidative damages of lipid membrane as evidenced from malondialdehyde and ascorbate content was observed in the DF system. Higher oxidative stress in the DF system was also apparent by elevated activities of superoxide dismutase, ascorbate peroxidase, and catalase. Among the three culture systems, liquid culture with MR resulted in maximum shoot multiplication with little or no symptoms of hyperhydricity. Shoots in the DF system were more prone to hyperhydricity than those in the AS and MR systems. The use of matrix support such as membrane raft as an interface between liquid medium and propagating tissue could be an effective means for rapid and efficient mass propagation with little or no symptoms of hyperhydricity.

Creep Behavior of Plastics Used in Automobile Instrument Panels (자동차 인스트루먼트 패널에 사용되는 플라스틱의 크리프 거동)

  • Kim, Young-Sam;Jeon, Chi-Hoon;Tumur-Ochir, Erdenebat;Yum, Young-Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.12
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    • pp.1549-1556
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    • 2011
  • Tensile and creep tests were performed at various temperatures to investigate the mechanical properties of plastics used in automotive instrument panels. Mechanical properties such as Young's modulus and Poisson's ratios changed markedly with the test temperature. Three-point bending creep tests were performed for three kinds of plastics under four loading conditions. Coefficients in the time-hardening power law creep equation were obtained from the experiment, and the creep behavior was represented by a simple expression. The results of finite element creep analysis showed good agreement with the experimental results, while the difference between the numerical and experimental results increased with the load.

Evaluation of Major Storm Events Both Measured by Chukwooki and Recorded in Annals of Chosun Dynasty: 2. Quantitative Approach (조선왕조실록 및 측우기 기록에 나타난 주요호우사상의 평가: 2. 정량적 평가)

  • Kim, Dae-Ha;Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Hyeon-Jun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.7
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    • pp.545-554
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    • 2007
  • This study characterized the storm events recorded in the Annals of Chosun Dynasty and evaluated them using a simple rectangular pulses Poisson process model. Storm events without in detail explanation like Keun-Bi (big rain) were found to have rather short return periods compared to the storm events with lengthy explanation about damages like Keun-Mul (high water), Hong-Soo (flood), and Pok-Woo (torrential rain). Not all storm events recorded were the size of annual maxima, so their return periods were found not to be higher than a certain level. Another noticeable fact is that these storm events recorded seem more sensitive to the storm duration rather than the storm intensity. That is, most storms recorded seem to be focused on long durations rather than high intensities. Those storm events with long durations must have caused serious flood damages, which maybe the critical reason why they were recorded.

Development of Constitutive Equation for Soils Under Cyclic Loading Conditions (反復荷重을 받는 흙의 構成關係式 開發)

  • Jang, Byeong-Uk;Song, Chang-Seop
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 1992
  • Various soil behaviors usually occurring in the geotechnical problems, such as, cutting and embankments, stability of slope, seepage, consolidations, shearing failures and liquefaction, should be predicted and analyzed in any way. An approach of these predictions may be followed by the development of the constitutive equations as first and subsequently solved by numerical methods. The purpose of this paper is develop the constitutive equation of sands uder monotonic or cyclic loadings. The constitutive equation which is based on elasto-plastic theory, modified anisotropic consolidated stress parameter by Sekiguchi et al and Pender's theory is derived. And the equation is included a new stress parameter, hardening function, Bauschinger's effects and Pender's theory. The model is later evaluated and confirmed the validity by the test data of Ottawa sand, Banwol sand Hongseong sand. The following conclustions may be drawn: 1. The consititutive equation which is based on elasto-plastic theory, modified anisotropic consolidated stress parpameter by Sekiguchi et al and Pender's theory is derived. The equation in included a new stress parameter, hardening function, Bauschinger's effect and Pender's theory. 2. For Ottawa sand, the result of the constitutive equation shows a better agreement than that of Oka et al. The result of axial strain agrees well with the tested data. However, the result of horizontal strain is little bit off for the cyclic loadings or large stress. It is thought that the deviation may be improved by considering Poisson's ratio and precise measurement of shear modulus. 3. Banwol sand is used for the strain and stress tests with different relative densitites and confining pressures. The predeicted result shows a good agreement with the tested data because the required material parameters were directly measurd and determined form this laboratory. 4. For Hongseong sand, the tests under same amplitude of cyclic deviatoric stress shows a similar result with the tested data in absolute strain. It shows the acute shape of turning point because the sine wave of input is used in the test but the serrated wave in prediction.

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Strength Characteristics in Drained Triaxial Tests on Granular Materials (사질토의 배수삼축압축시험에서의 강도특성)

  • 장병유;송창섭
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.33-42
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    • 1992
  • The shear strength of cohesionless Soils results from particle-to-particle friction and structural resistance by interlocking. And, the shear strength of soils is subjected to vary depending on the internal states and external condtions. If the volume change occurring in the soils and stress-strain relationships under the internal and external changes can accrurately he described, it is possible to predict the behaviors of soils. To accomplish these objectives a series of drained triaxial compression tests and isotropic compression test was performed on the Banwol sand at different relative densities ranging from 20% to 80% and different confining pressures ranging from 0.4kgf/cm$^2$ to l2kgf/cm$^2$. The results and main conclusions of the study are summarized as follows; 1.When the relative density or the confining pressure is increased, the maximum deviator stress is increased. The ratio of the maximum deviator stress and the confining pressure is linearly proportional to the relative density. 2.It is observed that the dilatancy depends not only upon its relative density but also the confining stress, and that the maximum deviator stress is obtained after the diatancy occurs. 3.The volume of sands undergoes initial contraction prior to the dilatancy occurred by strain softening. The dilatancy rate eventually approaches the critical state or a constant volume. 4.At lower strains, Poisson's ratio approaches a certain minimum value regadless of the state of materials. At larger strains, however, the ratio is increased as the relative density is increased. 5.It is observed that the modulus of elasticity is linearly proportional to the relative density and the pressure. 6.When the relative density is increased, the friction angle of sands is linearly increased. 7.When the relative density is increased, the expansion index and the compression index are linearly decreased, and the ratio of the two is about 1/3.

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Data Analysis of Suspension P-S Velocity Logging in Banded Gneiss Area around Hanam, Gyeonggi Province (경기도 하남시 인근 호상편마암 지역에서 Suspension P-S 속도검층 자료분석)

  • Yu, Young-Chul;Song, Moo-Young;Leem, Kook-Mook
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.623-631
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, dynamic elastic module of banded gneiss were calculated on the basis of SPS velocity logging data obtained from a geotechnical test-hole in Pungsan-dong, Hanam, Gyeonggi Province, Korea. This study mainly focuses on the velocity analysis, Q factor calculation relative to attenuation factor, and generation of crack information and its relation with seismic velocity. As a result, P-wave and S-wave velocity of fresh hard rock was 5,559m/s and 3,063m/s, respectively, with Poisson's ratio being 0.28. With these results, dynamic modules were prepared, and crack information analyzed by acoustic televiewer was incorporated to identify the correlation among and between delay of first arrival by crack amplitude ratio, and velocity. The results of this study revealed that the analyzed logging hole mainly consisted of micro crack and a number of cracks and the size of crack aperture, functioned as a variable to seismic velocity in the micro crack area of this type of hard rock.