• Title/Summary/Keyword: POISSON

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The Selection and Decision in R&D and Patents: A Hurdle Negative Binomial Approach (허들음이항모형을 이용한 기업의 혁신선택과 특허성과의 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jaemin
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.449-466
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    • 2014
  • There have been various researches on the relationship between a company's R&D investment and the outcome from innovation. However, these studies failed to effectively analyze the decision-making process followed by companies in relation to knowledge production. Especially, in analyzing the patent of companies, the Poisson model has been commonly used, but its limitations have been pointed out. In recent years, many studies have adopted negative binomial models, but they still pose limitations in analyzing the selection process. This paper proposed a hurdle negative binomial model to effectively reflect the company's decision embedded within patent information and conduct an empirical analysis on a survey of businesses' activities. In particular, the study analyzed the selection process of companies in determining the number of patents. As a result of estimation, the presence of over-dispersion was identified. In addition, the Wald-test confirmed that setting up of hurdles was valid, and there was a difference between the results of hurdle models and those of general negative binomial settings.

The Mechanical Properties of Rocks Distributed at a Metal Mine in Jeongseon (정선지역 철광산에 분포하는 암석의 역학적 특성)

  • Kim, Jong-Woo;Park, Chan;Kim, Ju-Hwan;Heo, Seok;Kim, Dong-Kyu;Lee, Dong-Kil;Jo, Young-Do;Park, Sam-Gyu
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.231-243
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    • 2015
  • In this study, both in-situ stress measurements and a lot of laboratory rock tests were conducted at a metal mine in Jeongseon, Korea. The stress ratio obtained from in-situ stress measurements showed a tendency to decrease according to depth below surface and its average value was 1.10. The mechanical properties such as unit weight, absorption ratio, porosity, elastic wave velocity, uniaxial compressive strength, Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, tensile strength, shore hardness, friction angle and cohesion were investigated for the four different rocks mainly distributed at a studied mine, which were dolomite, felsite, granite and magnetite. The mechanical properties of the four different rocks were compared by means of statistical analyses, whereupon the felsite and the granite turned out to have more strength characteristics than the magnetite. The correlation of mechanical properties was also investigated, whereupon a few results against the general correlation were found out. The failure criteria of the four different rocks were finally discussed by means of both Mohr-Coulomb criterion and Hoek-Brown criterion.

Accident Models of Circular Intersection by Cause Using ZAM (ZAM을 이용한 원형교차로 원인별 사고모형 개발)

  • Na, Hee;Park, Byung-Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2012
  • This study deals with the traffic accidents of circular intersections in Korea. The goal of this study is to develop the traffic accident models using ZAM. The main results are as follows. First, in the case of 'violating the operational method of intersection', ZINB(zero-inflatednegative binomial) models were analyzed to be the best fit to the data. Second, in the case of' no maintaining the safe distance', ZINB models were also analyzed to be the best fit to the data. Finally, such the common variables as traffic volume and width of circular roadway were selected as the independent variables. The more traffic volume and the less width of circulatory roadway were evaluated to make the more accidents. Such the specific variables as the number of approach lanes and speed reduction facilities were selected as the explanatory variables. The more approach lanes and the less speed reduction facilities were evaluated to give the more accidents. This study might be expected to give some implications to the accident research on the circular intersections.

Comparisons of Brittleness Indices of Shale and Correlation Analysis for the Application of Hydraulic Fracturing (수압파쇄 적용을 위한 셰일의 취성의 개념 고찰 및 취성도 간의 상관관계 분석)

  • Park, Jung-Ah;Park, Bona;Min, Ki-Bok
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.325-333
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    • 2014
  • Hydraulic fracturing is the key technology for production of shale gas, which is one of the major unconventional resources. Brittleness index is one of the most important mechanical properties which determine the efficiency of hydraulic fracturing. It was required that the production of shale gas increases with more brittle behavior. Confusingly, there are numerous definitions available for brittleness of rock. This paper summarizes various definitions of brittleness index, and presents correlation analysis of the brittleness indices by using the laboratory experimental results of 48 shale specimens in Korea. Generally, it shows a very weak positive correlation between the brittleness index ($B_1$) which is the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength to tensile strength and the brittleness index ($B_3$) which is calculated by using the Youngs modulus and Poisson's ratio. In addition, the role of Poissons ratio is not clear in defining brittleness indices. In conclusion, standardization of definition for brittleness index is required to apply it to hydraulic fracturing as a parameter for predicting the efficiency.

Latent class model for mixed variables with applications to text data (혼합모드 잠재범주모형을 통한 텍스트 자료의 분석)

  • Shin, Hyun Soo;Seo, Byungtae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.837-849
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    • 2019
  • Latent class models (LCM) are useful tools to draw hidden information from categorical data. This model can also be interpreted as a mixture model with multinomial component distributions. In some cases, however, an available dataset may contain both categorical and count or continuous data. For such cases, we can extend the LCM to a mixture model with both multinomial and other component distributions such as normal and Poisson distributions. In this paper, we consider a LCM for the data containing categorical and count data to analyze the Drug Review dataset which contains categorical responses and text review. From this data analysis, we show that we can obtain more specific hidden inforamtion than those from the LCM only with categorical responses.

Spatial Analysis of Air Pollution and Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality in 7 Metropolitan Cities in Korea. (7대 광역시에서 대기오염과 폐암 발생 및 사망에 대한 공간 분석)

  • Hwang, Seung-Sik;Lee, Jin-Hee;Jung, Gyu-Won;Lim, Jeong-Hun;Kwon, Ho-Jang
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.233-238
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    • 2007
  • Objectives : We aimed to assess the relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and lung cancer in the Republic of Korea. Methods : Using the Annual Report of Ambient Air Quality in Korea, Annual Report of National Cancer Registration, and Annual Report on the Cause of Death Statistics, we calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of lung cancer for both sexes in 74 areas from 7 Korean metropolitan cities. We performed random intercept, Poisson regression using empirical Bayes method. Results : Both SMRs and SIRs in the 7 metropolitan cities were higher in women than in men. Mean SIRs were 99.0 for males and 107.0 for females. The association between $PM_{10}$ and lung cancer risk differed according to gender. $PM_{10}$ was not associated with the risk of lung cancer in males, but both incidence and mortality of lung cancer were positively associated with $PM_{10}$ in females. The estimated percentage increases in the rate of female lung cancer mortality and incidence were 27% and 65% at the highest $PM_{10}$ category $({\geq}70\;{\mu}g/m^3)$, compared to the referent category $({\geq}50\;{\mu}g/m^3)$. Conclusions : Long-term exposure to $PM_{10}$ was significantly associated with female lung cancer incidence in 7 Korean metropolitan cities. Further study is undergoing to estimate the relative risk of $PM_{10}$ using multi-level analysis for controlling individual and regional confounders such as smoking and socioeconomic position.

Impact of the Outpatient Prescription Incentive Program on Reduction of Pharmaceutical Costs of Clinics in South Korea

  • Kwon, Seong Hee;Han, Kyu-Tae;Park, Sohee;Moon, Ki Tae;Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.247-255
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    • 2017
  • Background: South Korea has experienced problems with excessive pharmaceutical expenditures. In 2010, the South Korean government introduced an outpatient prescription incentive program to effectively manage pharmaceutical expenditures. Therefore, we examined the relationship between the outpatient prescription incentive program and pharmaceutical expenditures. Methods: We used data from the Korean National Health Insurance claims database, which included medical claims filed for 22,732 clinics from 2011-2014 to evaluate associated pharmaceutical expenditures. We performed multiple regression analysis and Poisson regression analysis using generalized estimating equation models to examine the associations between outpatient prescription incentives and the outcome variables. Results: The data used in this study consisted of 123,392 cases from 22,372 clinics (average 5.4 periods follow-up). Clinics that had received outpatient prescription incentives in the last period had better cost saving and Outpatient Prescribing Costliness Index (OPCI) (received: proportion of cost saving, ${\beta}=6.8179$; p-value < 0.0001; OPCI, ${\beta}=-0.0227$; p-value < 0.0001; reference = non-received). Moreover, these clinics had higher risk in the provision of outpatient prescription incentive (relative risk, 2.772; 95% confidence interval, 2.720 to 2.824). The associations were higher in clinics that had separate prescribing and dispensing programs, or had professional staff. Conclusion: The introduction of an outpatient prescription incentive program for clinics effectively managed problems with rapid increases of pharmaceutical expenditures in South Korea. However, the pharmaceutical expenditures still increased in spite of the positive impact of the outpatient prescription incentive program. Therefore, healthcare professionals and health policy makers should develop more effective alternatives (i.e., for clinics without separate prescribing and dispensing programs) based on our results.

Connectivity Analysis of Cognitive Radio Ad-hoc Networks with Shadow Fading

  • Dung, Le The;An, Beongku
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.3335-3356
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we analyze the connectivity of cognitive radio ad-hoc networks in a log-normal shadow fading environment. Considering secondary user and primary user's locations and primary user's active state are randomly distributed according to a homogeneous Poisson process and taking into account the spectrum sensing efficiency of secondary user, we derive mathematical models to investigate the connectivity of cognitive radio ad-hoc networks in three aspects and compare with the connectivity of ad-hoc networks. First, from the viewpoint of a secondary user, we study the communication probability of that secondary user. Second, we examine the possibility that two secondary users can establish a direct communication link between them. Finally, we extend to the case of finding the probability that two arbitrary secondary users can communicate via multi-hop path. We verify the correctness of our analytical approach by comparing with simulations. The numerical results show that in cognitive radio ad-hoc networks, high fading variance helps to remarkably improve connectivity behavior in the same condition of secondary user's density and primary user's average active rate. Furthermore, the impact of shadowing on wireless connection probability dominates that of primary user's average active rate. Finally, the spectrum sensing efficiency of secondary user significantly impacts the connectivity features. The analysis in this paper provides an efficient way for system designers to characterize and optimize the connectivity of cognitive radio ad-hoc networks in practical wireless environment.

Accuracy Assessment of the Upward Continuation using the Gravity Model from Ultra-high Degree Spherical Harmonics (초 고차항 구 조화 중력모델링에 의한 상향 연속의 정확도 검증)

  • Kwon Jay-Hyoun;Lee Jong-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.183-191
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    • 2006
  • The accuracy of the upward continuation is assessed through the gravity modeling using an ultra-high degree spherical harmonic expansion. The difficulties in the numerical calculation of Legendre function with ultra-high degree, underflow and/or overflow, is successfully resolved in 128 bit calculation scheme. Using the generated Legendre function, the gravity anomaly with spatial resolution of $1'{\times}1'$ on the geoid is calculated. The generated gravity anomaly is degraded and extracted with various noise levels and data intervals, then upward continuation is applied to each data sets. The comparison between the upward continued gravity disturbances and the directly calculated from the spherical harmonics showed that the accuracy on the direct method was significantly better than that of Poisson method. In addition, it is verified that the denser and less noised gravity data on the geoid generates better gravity disturbance vectors at an altitude. Especially, it is found that the gravity noise level less than 5mGal, and the data interval less than 2arcmin is necessary for next generation precision INS navigation which requires the accuracy of 5mGal or better at an altitude.

Microbial Risk Assessment of Non-Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli in Natural and Processed Cheeses in Korea

  • Kim, Kyungmi;Lee, Heeyoung;Lee, Soomin;Kim, Sejeong;Lee, Jeeyeon;Ha, Jimyeong;Yoon, Yohan
    • Food Science of Animal Resources
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.579-592
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    • 2017
  • This study assessed the quantitative microbial risk of non-enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC). For hazard identification, hazards of non-EHEC E. coli in natural and processed cheeses were identified by research papers. Regarding exposure assessment, non-EHEC E. coli cell counts in cheese were enumerated, and the developed predictive models were used to describe the fates of non-EHEC E. coli strains in cheese during distribution and storage. In addition, data on the amounts and frequency of cheese consumption were collected from the research report of the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety. For hazard characterization, a doseresponse model for non-EHEC E. coli was used. Using the collected data, simulation models were constructed, using software @RISK to calculate the risk of illness per person per day. Non-EHEC E. coli cells in natural- (n=90) and processed-cheese samples (n=308) from factories and markets were not detected. Thus, we estimated the initial levels of contamination by Uniform distribution ${\times}$ Beta distribution, and the levels were -2.35 and -2.73 Log CFU/g for natural and processed cheese, respectively. The proposed predictive models described properly the fates of non-EHEC E. coli during distribution and storage of cheese. For hazard characterization, we used the Beta-Poisson model (${\alpha}=2.21{\times}10^{-1}$, $N_{50}=6.85{\times}10^7$). The results of risk characterization for non-EHEC E. coli in natural and processed cheese were $1.36{\times}10^{-7}$ and $2.12{\times}10^{-10}$ (the mean probability of illness per person per day), respectively. These results indicate that the risk of non-EHEC E. coli foodborne illness can be considered low in present conditions.