• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• 제8권5호
• /
• pp.595-605
• /
• 2021

The objectives of this research are to see if the phenomena of "demand following" and "supply leading" exist in the business cycle, as well as to look at how liquidity and output react to changes in credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and growth rate of real national output. Employing quarterly data of Maluku and North Maluku (2008-2019), this study utilizes VAR/VECM for inferential analysis. This research found three important findings. First, liquidity and output growth influenced each other in the long run. Second, the determinants of output growth for Maluku are liquidity, investment-saving gap, and inflation, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, the gap of investment-saving, and inflation. Third, the determinants of output growth for North Maluku are liquidity, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and the national output-growth, while the determinants of liquidity are output-growth, credit risk, investment-saving gap, inflation, exchange rate, and national output-growth. The findings of this study supported the hypothesis of demand following and supply leading theory in the Maluku and North Maluku business cycles. This study concludes that economic development would improve if supported by liquidity adequacy through increased deposit growth.

• 무역학회지
• /
• 제46권1호
• /
• pp.83-111
• /
• 2021

This paper conducts a Structural Dcomposition Analysis on the structure of factors contributing to the output growth of Korean Maritime and Port Industry during year 2000~ year 2017. Some of results are as follows. The output growth rates of the industry (yearly average 4.3%) was far lower than the average growth rates of Service as well as of Manufacturing Industries (yearly average 9% and 6.8%, respectively) due to the lower output growth of Maritime Industry. Among the growth contributing factors, change in domestic demand for final goods is the first contributing factor, and then change in technology, change in export and import substitution for intermediate goods are followed in order, but import substitution for final goods decreased its output. However, in each respective sub-periods of pre-global financial crisis and post-global financial crisis, change in the export, especially change in the export of Maritime Industry is the dominant determinant of output change in the Maritime and Port Industry in opposite ways. In the periods of the former the increase in the export of Maritime Industry overwhelmingly led the output growth of the Maritime and Port industry, but in the periods of the latter the decrease in its export was the culprit of lower output growth of the industry. On the other hand, among all industries of service and manufacturing sectors, Wholesale and Retail industry is the leading industry in contributing to the output growth of the Maritime and Port Industry, and Transportation Equipment industry is the leading industry among all manufacturing industries.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• 제16권1호
• /
• pp.97-115
• /
• 2012

This paper investigates the relationship between financial markets and output growth for a panel of 27 Asian countries over 1960-2009. It utilizes the recently-developed panel cointegration techniques to test and estimate the long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP and financial development proxies. Real GDP and financial development variables are found to have unit roots and to be cointegrated, based on various panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests. We find that there is a statistically significant positive bi-directional cointegrating relationship between financial development and output growth by three distinct methods of panel cointegration estimation. Empirical findings suggest that financial market development promotes output growth and in turn output growth stimulates further financial development.

• 기술혁신학회지
• /
• 제6권3호
• /
• pp.328-344
• /
• 2003

This paper is aimed at analyzing the effect of Information Technology (IT) investment on the output growth and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of Korean stock industry. Data on 24 stock firms for the eleven years (1991-2001) are used for the analysis. It is identified that there are both direct and indirect impacts of IT investment of the Korean stock industry on output growth. The total effect on output growth is 1.34 percentage point per year, which divided into a direct effect of investment in IT on the output growth is 1.97 and an indirect effect on the TFP is -0.63 percentage points per year. Results show that IT investment cannot contribute to increased stock industry productivity. Therefore, the Korean stock industry has not benefited from increased investment on IT in increasing productivity, implying the so-called productivity paradox has existed during the period.

• 기술혁신학회지
• /
• 제7권2호
• /
• pp.283-304
• /
• 2004

Evaluating the sources of economic output is obviously important, and numerous attempts have been made to judge the impact of many different factors on economic output. It is widely accepted that high-technology(HT) is one of the important factors in economic output. This paper empirically explores the impacts of HT exports on economic output using a cross-county analysis based on data from 89 countries for the year 1988-2000. To this end, several versions of the neoclassical growth models, explicitly including HT exports, are estimated. Subject to the appropriate caveats, the results provide further support for several key conclusions of the former studies - investment in physical capital, population growth, and the human capital are important in accounting fer economic output across countries. More importantly, it is concluded that HT exports significantly contribute to economic output. Interestingly, the conclusion is valid f3r developing countries, but not far developed countries.

• 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국기술혁신학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회
• /
• pp.5-17
• /
• 2003

This paper examines the effects of IT technology capital and R&D stock's variation on the growth of Korea's industries with the empirical approaches. We analyze the Granger causality and Impulse response function analysis among the Korea's industrial real output, IT technology capital, and R&D stocks. When it comes to this research conclusion, we know that IT technology capital and R&D stock's shocks affect the growth of Korea's industrial sector in terms of increasing in the real output growth rate.

• 융합경영연구
• /
• 제12권5호
• /
• pp.63-73
• /
• 2024

Purpose: Changes in energy prices can be considered as one of the factors of macroeconomic uncertainty. This study examines the impact of coal price shocks on Indonesian macroeconomic variables. Research design, data and methodology: The structural vector autoregressive model is used on monthly data from January 2010 to June 2023. Results: The impulse response functions indicate that coal price shocks have a negative impact on output and a positive impact on CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the effective real exchange rate. Following a shock in coal price growth, output growth takes twelve months, CPI growth takes fifteen months, and the effective real exchange rate takes seventeen months to reach equilibrium. Coal price growth shocks generally do not have a significant contribution to the variation in output, CPI growth and effective real exchange rate. On average over a twelve-month simulation, coal price growth shocks contribute 2.06 percent to output growth variation, 0.0042 percent to CPI growth variation, and 0.0046 percent to effective real exchange rate growth variation. Conclusions: This study finds that the impact of rising coal prices, as an energy source in Indonesia, can be offset by coal export revenues. This is possible considering that 70-80% of Indonesia's coal is exported.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• 제27권5호
• /
• pp.113-136
• /
• 2023

Purpose - Global production chains and their impacts on economic growth have drawn extensive attention from researchers. Close relationships among global production chains, export and economic growth have been illuminated, as evidenced by the fast and stable economic growth of East Asian economies. These economies perform various roles within global production chains using offshoring, in which the impact of import on domestic gross output is as strong as that of export. The impact of import on economic growth would depend on whether imported inputs substitute or complement domestic inputs production, which is likely to vary according to individual countries' functions within global production chains. The economic growth of concerned countries would also be diverse. However, little attention has been paid to the impact brought by imports compared to its significance. Design/methodology - The principal methodology used in this paper is structural decomposition analysis (SDA), widely chosen to elucidate the impact of various factors on domestic gross output using input-output tables. This paper extracts trade data of six Asian economies from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) 2016 release that covers 43 countries for the period 2000-2014. The extracted data is then categorised into 37 sectors. First, this paper calculates the Feenstra-Hanson Offshoring Index (OSI) of each country. It then applies SDA to measure the changes in each economy's gross output, export, import input coefficients, and domestic input coefficients. Finally, after taking the first difference from pooled time-series data, it estimates the correlations between imported input coefficients and OSI using the ordinary least square (OLS) method. Findings - The main findings of this paper can be summarised as follows. Firstly, all six countries have increasingly engaged in global production chains, as evidenced by the growing size of OSI. Secondly, there are negative correlations in five countries except Japan, with sectoral differences. Thirdly, changes in import input coefficients are not negative in all six countries, indicating that offshoring does not necessarily substitute for domestic inputs production but does complement it and, therefore, fosters their economic growth. This is observed in China, Indonesia, Korea and Taiwan. Offshoring has led to an increase in the use of imported inputs, which has, in turn, stimulated domestic inputs production in these countries. Originality/value - While existing studies focus on the role of export in evaluating the impact of participating global production chains, this paper explicitly examines the unexplored impact of import on domestic gross output by considering both the substitution and the complementary effect, using the WIOD. The findings of this paper suggest that Asian economies have achieved fast and stable economic growth not only through successful export management but also through effective import management within global production chains. This paper recommends that the Korean government and enterprises carefully choose offshoring strategies to minimise disruption to domestic production chains or foster them.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제61권3호
• /
• pp.407-412
• /
• 2012

This study investigated the process of thermal-induced growth of micro-crack developed at the crystalline solar cell using EL image, determined the output characteristic according to the pattern of micro-crack, analyzed the I-V characteristic according to the pattern of crack growth, and predicted the output value using simulation. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to investigate the process of thermal-induced growth of micro-crack developed at the early stage of PV module completion using EL image, to analyze the resulting decrement of output and predict the output value using simulation. It was observed that the crack grew increasingly by the thermal condition, and accordingly the lowering of output was accelerated. The output values of crack patterns with various direction were predicted using simulation, resulting in close I-V curve with only around 4% of error rate. It is considered that it is possible to predict the electric characteristic of solar cell module using only pattern of micro-crack occurred at solar cell based on our results.

• 대한기계학회논문집
• /
• 제16권9호
• /
• pp.1722-1727
• /
• 1992

본 연구에서는 이러한 불확실한 시스템에 대하여 정규화 형태의 추정기를 적 용한 적응 입출력 선형화 제어기의 설계에 대해 연구하였으며, 신호 성장속도(signal growth rates)의 개념을 도입하여 안정성을 해석하였다. 정규화 형태의 추정기를 적 용함으로써 큰 불확실성에 대해 보다 안정한 수렴 특성을 얻을 수 있음을 시뮬레이션 을 통해 보였다.