• 경영과학
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 2006년도 춘계공동학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1079-1084
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• 2006

Since the focus of QFD is placed on the early stage of product development, the uncertainty in the input information of QFD is inevitable. If the uncertainty is neglected, the QFD analysis results can be misleading. This paper proposes an extended version of the QFD methodology, called Robust QFD, which is capable of considering the uncertainty of the input information and the resulting variability of the output. The proposed framework aims to model, analyze, and dampen the effects of the uncertainty and variability in a systematic manner. The proposed framework is demonstrated through a case study on the ADSL-based high-speed internet service.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전기기기및에너지변환시스템부문B
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.219-225
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• 2000

This paper presents the shape optimization considering the uncertainty of design variable to find robust optimal solution that has insensitive performance to its change of design variable. Stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is used to treat input data as stochastic variables. It is method that the potential values are series form for the expectation and small variation. Using correlation function of their variables, the statistics of output obtained form the input data distributed. From this, design considering uncertainty of design variables.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.93-102
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• 2005

The Nyquist robust stability margin is proposed as a measure of robust stability for systems with Affine TFM(Transfer Function Matrix) parametric uncertainty. The parametric uncertainty is modeled through a Affine TFM MIMO (Multi-Input Multi-Output) description with dead-time, and the unstructured uncertainty through a bounded perturbation of Affine polynomials. Gershgorin's theorem and concepts of diagonal dominance and GB(Gershgorin Bands) are extended to include model uncertainty. Multiloop PI/PID controllers can be tuned by using a modified version of the Ziegler-Nichols (ZN) relations. Consequently, this paper provides sufficient conditions for the robustness of Affine TFM MIMO uncertain systems with dead-time based on Rosenbrock's DNA. Simulation examples show the performance and efficiency of the proposed multiloop design method for Affine uncertain systems with dead-time.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제58권3호
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• pp.241-250
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• 2022

This paper describes the design of H-infinity controller for robust control of a DC motor system. The suggested controller can ensure robustness against disturbance and model uncertainty by minimizing H-infinity norm of the transfer function from exogenous input to performance output and applying the small gain theorem. In particular, the controller was designed to reduce the effects of disturbance and model uncertainty simultaneously by formalizing these problems as a mixed sensitivity problem. The validity of the proposed controller was demonstrated by computer simulations and real experiments. Moreover, the effectiveness of the proposed controller was confirmed by comparing its performance with PI controller, which was tested under the same experimental condition as the H-infinity controller.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.163-174
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• 2010

As pointed out in the OECD BEMUSE Program, when a high computation time is taken to obtain the relevant output values of a complex physical model (or code), the number of statistical samples that must be evaluated through it is a critical factor for the sampling-based uncertainty analysis. Two alternative methods have been utilized to avoid the problem associated with the size of these statistical samples: one is based on Wilks' formula, which is based on simple random sampling, and the other is based on the conventional nonlinear regression approach. While both approaches provide a useful means for drawing conclusions on the resultant uncertainty with a limited number of code runs, there are also some unique corresponding limitations. For example, a conclusion based on the Wilks' formula can be highly affected by the sampled values themselves, while the conventional regression approach requires an a priori estimate on the functional forms of a regression model. The main objective of this paper is to assess the feasibility of the ACE-RSM approach as a complementary method to the Wilks' formula and the conventional regression-based uncertainty analysis. This feasibility was assessed through a practical application of the ACE-RSM approach to the LOFT L2-5 LBLOCA PCT uncertainty analysis, which was implemented as a part of the OECD BEMUSE Phase III program.

• 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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• 제5권8호
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• pp.923-931
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• 1999

In this paper, a modeling and a robust time-delay control for the reclaimer are investigated. Supplying the same amount of a raw material throughout the reclamation process from the raw yard to a sinter plant is important to keep the quality of the molten steel uniform in blast furnaces. As the actual parameter values of the reclaimer are not available, the boom rotational dynamics are modeled as a second order differential equation with unknown coefficients. The unknown parameters in the nominal model are estimated using a recursive estimation method. Another important factor in the control design of the reclaimer is the large time-delay in output measurement. Assuming a multiplicative uncertainty, that accounts for both the unstructured uncertainty neglected in the modeling and the structured uncertainty contained in the parameter estimation, a robust Smith predictor is designed. A robust stability criterion for the multiplicative uncertainty is also derived. Following the work of Goodwin et al. [4], a quantifying procedure of the multiplicative uncertainty bound, through experiments , is described. Experimental and simulation results are provided.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.529-536
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• 2001

We investigate a surface-micromachined capacitive accelerometer with the grid-type electrodes surrounded by a perforated proof-mass frame. An electromechanical analysis of the microaccelerometer has been performed to obtain analytical formulae for natural frequency and output sensitivity response estimation. A set of prototype devices has been designed and fabricated based on a 4-mask surface-micromachining process. The resonant frequency of 5.8$\pm$0.17kHz and the detection sensitivity of 0.28$\pm$0.03mV/g have been measured from the fabricated devices. The parasitic capacitance of the detection circuit with a charge amplifier has been measured as 3.34$\pm$1.16pF. From the uncertainty analysis, we find that the major uncertainty in the natural frequency of the accelerometer comes from the micromachining error in the beam width patterning process. The major source of the sensitivity uncertainty includes uncertainty of the parasitic capacitance, the inter-electrode gap and the resonant frequency, contributing to the overall sensitivity uncertainty in the portions of 75%, 14% and 11%, respectively.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.39-45
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• 2007

In this paper, we analyzed the elements of measurement uncertainty on electrical performance test which are the most important things in photovoltaic module performance test. Repeating the performance test by 6 men, the measurement uncertainty could be calculated. In this experiment, Solar Simulator (A-Class pulse type) used for domestic certificate test of PV module is Pasan IIIb (Balval, Switzerland). The possible elements of the measurement uncertain that could effect electrical performance test of PV module are reference cell, spectrum correction, error from measurement repetition, test condition, stability and uniformity of artificial solar simulator. To find the measurement uncertainty, 6 men repeated the test by 10 times. And the results were that numerical average value was 124.44W and measurement uncertainty was $124.44W{\pm}0.36W$ with 95% confidence level for 125W PV module(KD-5125).

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.331-343
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• 2019

Dynamic thermal rating of the overhead transmission lines is affected by many uncertain factors. The ambient temperature, wind speed and wind direction are the main sources of uncertainty. Measurement uncertainty is an important parameter to evaluate the reliability of measurement results. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo. On the basis of establishing the mathematical model and setting the probability density function of the input parameter value, the probability density function of the output value is determined by probability distribution random sampling. Through the calculation and analysis of the transient thermal balance equation and the steady- state thermal balance equation, the steady-state current carrying capacity, the transient current carrying capacity, the standard uncertainty and the probability distribution of the minimum and maximum values of the conductor under 95% confidence interval are obtained. The simulation results indicate that Monte Carlo method can decrease the computational complexity, speed up the calculation, and increase the validity and reliability of the uncertainty evaluation.