• Title/Summary/Keyword: Out of distribution

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Estimation of Car Insurance Loss Ratio Using the Peaks over Threshold Method (POT방법론을 이용한 자동차보험 손해율 추정)

  • Kim, S.Y.;Song, J.
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.101-114
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    • 2012
  • In car insurance, the loss ratio is the ratio of total losses paid out in claims divided by the total earned premiums. In order to minimize the loss to the insurance company, estimating extreme quantiles of loss ratio distribution is necessary because the loss ratio has essential prot and loss information. Like other types of insurance related datasets, the distribution of the loss ratio has heavy-tailed distribution. The Peaks over Threshold(POT) and the Hill estimator are commonly used to estimate extreme quantiles for heavy-tailed distribution. This article compares and analyzes the performances of various kinds of parameter estimating methods by using a simulation and the real loss ratio of car insurance data. In addition, we estimate extreme quantiles using the Hill estimator. As a result, the simulation and the loss ratio data applications demonstrate that the POT method estimates quantiles more accurately than the Hill estimation method in most cases. Moreover, MLE, Zhang, NLS-2 methods show the best performances among the methods of the GPD parameters estimation.

Integrated Korean Flora Database: A versatile web-based database for dissecting flora investigations with climate data

  • Yeon, Jihun;Kim, Yongsung;Kim, Hyejeong;Kim, Juhyun;Park, Jongsun
    • Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2018.10a
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    • pp.32-32
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    • 2018
  • Flora investigations in Korea have been conducted by many researchers for diverse purposes. Accumulated flora investigation data has not been utilized efficiently because there is no accessible database for comparison. To overcome this shortcoming, we constructed web-based database of flora investigation, named as the Integrated Korean Flora Database (IKFD; http://www.floradb.net/intro.php). Until now, 284 flora references (263 papers, 14 reports and books, and 7 unpublished papers written in between 1962 and 2017) were digitalized into the database. From 134,711 records, 4,301 species belonging to 228 families and 1,079 genera were identified via mapping with two major Korean plant species lists. Polygon areas originated from references were used for distribution of plant species, identifying precise distribution area. It will be a better index to show plant ecological characteristics. Collected micro-climate data provided by Korea Meteorology Administration were also integrated in IFKD for understanding correlation between distribution of plants and micro-climate. Cold hardiness zone which has been utilized for classifying climate zones. 12 out of 26 zones identified based on micro-climate data in Korea were mapped with distribution of plants. More than half species were appeared in zone 6a, 6b, 7a, and 7b. Taken together with these results, IKFD will be a fundamental platform for understanding plants in Korea flora investigation as well as a new standard for classifying distribution of plants. Moreover, Biodiversity Observation Database (BODB; http://www.biodiversitydb.info/intro.php) which integrates plant distribution data was also integrated for further studies.

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Influence of Endurance tests on Space Charge Distribution of 160kV HVDC XLPE Cable

  • Liu, Yun-Peng;Liu, He-Chen
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.302-309
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    • 2017
  • The ageing of XLPE cable insulation will lead to the accelerating accumulation of space charge, which will greatly affect the safe operation of the HVDC cable. In order to investigate the influence of different ageing modes on the space charge distribution of the HVDC cable, thermal stressed, electrical stressed and electro-thermal stressed endurance tests were carried out on the XLPE peelings. The tested XLPE peelings were obtained from 160kV HVDC cable insulation. The endurance tests were carried at thermal stress of 363K, electrical stress of 20kV/mm DC and a combination of both. The Pulsed Electro-Acoustic (PEA) method was used to measure the space charge distribution of the samples. The influences of ageing on the trap energy distribution were analyzed based on the isothermal relaxation theory and the decay characteristics of the space charge. The results showed that thermal ageing would help to improve the crystalline morphologies of the XLPE at the early stage. The total amount of space charge decreased compared to the ones before thermal ageing. The long term of electrical stress would result in the cleavage of polymer molecule chains which would intensify the accumulation of space charge and increase the density and depth of electron traps. With a combination of electrical and thermal stress, the injection and migration of space charge were more significant. Besides, the depth and density of electron traps increased rapidly with the increase of endurance time.

A Study on Competitive Power and Effective Distribution Structure of Korean Fisheries (우리나라 수산업의 경쟁력 분석 및 유통구조 선진화 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Cheong-Yeoul
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.283-302
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    • 2009
  • This study analyses the current status of trade in Korean fisheries and competitive power in export to China in the era of actual open-door policy, aiming to figure out problems in distribution Structure of fisheries and suggest directions for further development in this area. Political efforts have been consistently made to change distribution system of our fisheries into low-cost and high-efficiency system, but continuous contradictions occur in actual distribution. In this reality, we need a new perspective to reorganize distribution markets according to real conditions. To improve distribution Structures for fisheries, political focus should be given on reorganization of the entire structure. And to develop political directions for fisheries, we should evaluate its competitive powers and based on the results, we should develop efficient measures to use limited political resources.

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The Effects of Moon's Uneven Mass Distribution on the Critical Inclinations of a Lunar Orbiter

  • Rahoma, Walid A.;Abd El-Salam, Fawzy A.
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2014
  • The uneven mass distribution of the Moon highly perturbs the lunar spacecrafts. This uneven mass distribution leads to peculiar dynamical features of the lunar orbiters. The critical inclination is the value of inclination which keeps the deviation of the argument of pericentre from the initial values to be zero. Considerable investigations have been performed for critical inclination when the gravity field is assumed to be symmetric around the equator, namely for oblate gravity field to which Earth's satellites are most likely to be subjected. But in the case of a lunar orbiter, the gravity field of mass distribution is rather asymmetric, that is, sectorial, and tesseral, harmonic coefficients are big enough so they can't be neglected. In the present work, the effects of the first sectorial and tesseral harmonic coefficients in addition to the first zonal harmonic coefficients on the critical inclination of a lunar artificial satellite are investigated. The study is carried out using the Hamiltonian framework. The Hamiltonian of the problem is cconstructed and the short periodic terms are eliminated using Delaunay canonical variables. Considering the above perturbations, numerical simulations for a hypothetical lunar orbiter are presented. Finally, this study reveals that the critical inclination is quite different from the critical inclination of traditional sense and/or even has multiple solutions. Consequently, different families of critical inclination are obtained and analyzed.

Degradation reliability modeling of plain concrete for pavement under flexural fatigue loading

  • Jia, Yanshun;Liu, Guoqiang;Yang, Yunmeng;Gao, Ying;Yang, Tao;Tang, Fanlong
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.469-478
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to establish a new methodological framework for the evaluation of the evolution of the reliability of plain concrete for pavement vs number of cycles under flexural fatigue loading. According to the framework, a new method calculating the reliability was proposed through probability simulation in order to describe a random accumulation of fatigue damage, which combines reliability theory, one-to-one probability density functions transformation technique, cumulative fatigue damage theory and Weibull distribution theory. Then the statistical analysis of flexural fatigue performance of cement concrete tested was carried out utilizing Weibull distribution. Ultimately, the reliability for the tested cement concrete was obtained by the proposed method. Results indicate that the stochastic evolution behavior of concrete materials under fatigue loading can be captured by the established framework. The flexural fatigue life data of concrete at different stress levels is well described utilizing the two-parameter Weibull distribution. The evolution of reliability for concrete materials tested in this study develops by three stages and may corresponds to develop stages of cracking. The proposed method may also be available for the analysis of degradation behaviors under non-fatigue conditions.

Studies on the Stochastic Generation of Long Term Runoff (2) (장기유출량의 추계학적 모의 발생에 관한 연구 (II))

  • 이순혁;맹승진;박종국
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.117-129
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    • 1993
  • This study was conducted to get reasonable and abundant hydrological time series of monthly flows simulated by a best fitting stochastic simulation model for the establishment of rational design and the rationalization of management for agricultural hydraulic structures including reservoirs. Comparative analysis carried out for both statistical characteristics and synthetic monthly flows simulated by the multi-season first order Markov model based on Gamma distribution which is confirmed as good one in the first report of this study and by Harmonic synthetic model analyzed in this report for the six watersheds of Yeong San and Seom Jin river systems. 1.Arithmetic mean values of synthetic monthly flows simulated by Gamma distribution are much closer to the results of the observed data than those of Harmonic synthetic model in the applied watersheds. 2.In comparison with the coefficients of variation, index of fluctuation for monthly flows simulated by two kinds of synthetic models, those based on Gamma distribution are appeared closer to the observed data than those of Harmonic synthetic model both in Yeong San and Seom Jin river systems. 3.It was found that synthetic monthly flows based on Gamma distribution are considered to give better results than those of Harmonic synthetic model in the applied watersheds. 4.Continuation studies by comparison with other simulation techniques are to be desired for getting reasonable generation technique of synthetic monthly flows for the various river systems in Korea.

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Accelerated Sequential Procedure to Estimate the Mean of Unknown Distribution

  • Son, M.S.;Hamdy, H.I.
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.367-376
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    • 1997
  • Consider the accelerated sequential procedure of Hall(1983). Second order asymptotic expression of well behaved functions of the stopping variable. The results is demonstrated by working out several point and interval estimation problems.

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A Change and Distribution in Pinus densiflora Forest of Mt. Hallasan (한라산 소나무림의 분포와 변화)

  • Song, Kuk-Man;Kim, Chan-Soo;Moon, Myong-Ok;Kim, Moon-Hong
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2012
  • This study was carried out to investigate the distribution and their change of Pinus densiflora forests by climate change in Mt. Hallasan. The results showed that the areas of P. densiflora forests of Mt. Hallasan varied by region, with a total area of 1,324.3 ha, concentrated mostly in the region 1,000 m - 1,400 m above sea level. The temperate coniferous forest zone are distributed in the upper part of temperate forest zone composed of deciduous broad-leaved trees. Most of the P. densiflora forests in the lower parts were found not to be spreading because they are located close to the deciduous broad-leaved trees. However, the P. densiflora forests in the Sajebi and Pyeonggwe regions composed of the grasslands and shrub forests were found to be spreading. In addition, the altitude of the P. densiflora forests distribution increased by about 50 m and 90 m in the Sajebi and Pyeonggwe regions, respectively. The spread rate is expected to become faster than in the past due to the rate of climate change. The structure of the vegetation in Mt. Hallasan and the changes in the vegetation due to various factors need to be investigated from a long-term point of view.

The Characteristics of Current Distribution and Electrical Insulation on High-Tc Superconducting Cable (고온 초전도 케이블의 전류 분포 및 전기절연 특성)

  • ;;;;Takataro Hamajima
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers B
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.271-277
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    • 2003
  • It is important to control layer current distributions of coaxial multi-layer HTS cables, because a homogeneous layer current distribution decreases AC loss and can supply the largest operational current. We have extended the theory that treat the operational current more than the critical current by considering V-I nonlinear characteristics of HTS tapes including flux flow resistance and contacting resistance between the cable and terminals. It is important to investigate the current distribution under the condition of operational current more than the critical current of cable, because the cable has experiences of fault current. In order to verify the extended theory, we have fabricated a two layers cable with the same twisting layer pitch. It was observed that almost all the operational current less than the critical current flowed on the outer layer because of its lower inductance. In case of operational current more than critical currents of layers, the flux flow resistances affect strongly current waveform and thereby the currents of layers were determined by the flux flow resistances. And we investigated breakdown characteristics in $LN_{2}$/paper composite insulation system for the application to a HTS cable. In this experiment, we got some information out of that the electrical characteristics of the insulation materials depends on the condition of butt gap.