• Title/Summary/Keyword: Opportunity Cost

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Effect of Capital Market Return On Insurance Coverage : A Financial Economic Approach (투자수익(投資收益)이 보험수요(保險需要)에 미치는 영향(影響)에 관한 이론적(理論的) 고찰(考察))

  • Hong, Soon-Koo
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.249-280
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    • 1993
  • Recent financial theory views insurance policies as financial instruments that are traded in markets and whose prices reflect the forces of supply and demand. This article analyzes individual's insurance purchasing behavior along with capital market investment activities, which will provide a more realistic look at the tradeoff between insurance and investment in the individual's budget constraint. It is shown that the financial economic concept of insurance cost should reflect the opportunity cost of insurance premium. The author demonstrates the importance of riskless and risky financial assets in reaching an equilibrium insurance premium. In addition, the paper also investigates how the investment income could affect the four established theorems on traditional insurance literature. At the present time in Korea, the price deregulation is being debated as the most important current issue in insurance industry. In view of the results of this paper, insurance companies should recognize investment income in pricing their coverage if insurance prices are deregulated. Otherwise. price competition may force insurance companies to restrict coverage or to leave the market.

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The Relations between Financial Constraints and Dividend Smoothing of Innovative Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (혁신형 중소기업의 재무적 제약과 배당스무딩간의 관계)

  • Shin, Min-Shik;Kim, Soo-Eun
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.67-93
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this paper is to explore the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs) listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange. The innovative SMEs is defined as the firms with high level of R&D intensity which is measured by (R&D investment/total sales) ratio, according to Chauvin and Hirschey (1993). The R&D investment plays an important role as the innovative driver that can increase the future growth opportunity and profitability of the firms. Therefore, the R&D investment have large, positive, and consistent influences on the market value of the firm. In this point of view, we expect that the innovative SMEs can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. And also, we expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Aivazian et al.(2006) exert that the financial unconstrained firms with the high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms. We collect the sample firms among the total SMEs listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange during the periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. The total number of firm-year observations of the total sample firms throughout the entire period is 5,544, the number of firm-year observations of the dividend firms is 2,919, and the number of firm-year observations of the non-dividend firms is 2,625. About 53%(or 2,919) of these total 5,544 observations involve firms that make a dividend payment. The dividend firms are divided into two groups according to the R&D intensity, such as the innovative SMEs with larger than median of R&D intensity and the noninnovative SMEs with smaller than median of R&D intensity. The number of firm-year observations of the innovative SMEs is 1,506, and the number of firm-year observations of the noninnovative SMEs is 1,413. Furthermore, the innovative SMEs are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints, such as the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms. The number of firm-year observations of the former is 894, and the number of firm-year observations of the latter is 612. Although all available firm-year observations of the dividend firms are collected, deletions are made in the case of financial industries such as banks, securities company, insurance company, and other financial services company, because their capital structure and business style are widely different from the general manufacturing firms. The stock repurchase was involved in dividend payment because Grullon and Michaely (2002) examined the substitution hypothesis between dividends and stock repurchases. However, our data structure is an unbalanced panel data since there is no requirement that the firm-year observations data are all available for each firms during the entire periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. We firstly estimate the classic Lintner(1956) dividend adjustment model, where the decision to smooth dividend or to adopt a residual dividend policy depends on financial constraints measured by market accessibility. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between current payout rato and target payout ratio each year. In the Lintner model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), and independent variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt). We hypothesized that firms adjust partially the gap between the current dividend per share(DPSt) and the target payout ratio(Ω) each year, when the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) deviate from the target payout ratio(Ω). We secondly estimate the expansion model that extend the Lintner model by including the determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory. In the expansion model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), explanatory variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt), and control variables are the current capital expenditure ratio(CEAt), the current leverage ratio(LEVt), the current operating return on assets(ROAt), the current business risk(RISKt), the current trading volume turnover ratio(TURNt), and the current dividend premium(DPREMt). In these control variables, CEAt, LEVt, and ROAt are the determinants suggested by the residual dividend theory and the agency theory, ROAt and RISKt are the determinants suggested by the dividend signaling theory, TURNt is the determinant suggested by the transactions cost theory, and DPREMt is the determinant suggested by the catering theory. Furthermore, we thirdly estimate the Lintner model and the expansion model by using the panel data of the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms, that are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints. We expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, because the former can finance more easily the investment funds through the market accessibility than the latter. We analyzed descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, and median to delete the outliers from the panel data, conducted one way analysis of variance to check up the industry-specfic effects, and conducted difference test of firms characteristic variables between innovative SMEs and noninnovative SMEs as well as difference test of firms characteristic variables between financial unconstrained firms and financial constrained firms. We also conducted the correlation analysis and the variance inflation factors analysis to detect any multicollinearity among the independent variables. Both of the correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factors are roughly low to the extent that may be ignored the multicollinearity among the independent variables. Furthermore, we estimate both of the Lintner model and the expansion model using the panel regression analysis. We firstly test the time-specific effects and the firm-specific effects may be involved in our panel data through the Lagrange multiplier test that was proposed by Breusch and Pagan(1980), and secondly conduct Hausman test to prove that fixed effect model is fitter with our panel data than the random effect model. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. The determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory explain significantly the dividend policy of the innovative SMEs. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between the current payout ratio and the target payout ratio each year. In the core variables of Lintner model, the past dividend per share has more effects to dividend smoothing than the current earnings per share. These results suggest that the innovative SMEs maintain stable and long run dividend policy which sustains the past dividend per share level without corporate special reasons. The main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs is faster than that of the noninnovative SMEs. This means that the innovative SMEs with high level of R&D intensity can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. The other main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the financial unconstrained SMEs is faster than that of the financial constrained SMEs. This means that the financial unconstrained firms with high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Futhermore, the other additional results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs classified by the Small and Medium Business Administration is faster than that of the unclassified SMEs. They are linked with various financial policies and services such as credit guaranteed service, policy fund for SMEs, venture investment fund, insurance program, and so on. In conclusion, the past dividend per share and the current earnings per share suggested by the Lintner model explain mainly dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs, and also the financial constraints explain partially. Therefore, if managers can properly understand of the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative SMEs, they can maintain stable and long run dividend policy of the innovative SMEs through dividend smoothing. These are encouraging results for Korea government, that is, the Small and Medium Business Administration as it has implemented many policies to commit to the innovative SMEs. This paper may have a few limitations because it may be only early study about the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of the innovative SMEs. Specifically, this paper may not adequately capture all of the subtle features of the innovative SMEs and the financial unconstrained SMEs. Therefore, we think that it is necessary to expand sample firms and control variables, and use more elaborate analysis methods in the future studies.

Effects of Organic Selenium Mix on the Performance, Carcass Characteristics, Tissue Selenium Distribution, and Economic Value in Finishing Hanwoo Steers (유기셀레늄 혼합제 급여가 비육말기 거세한우의 성장, 도체성적, 체내 셀레늄 분포 및 경제성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, D.K.;Jung, D.U.;Sung, H.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.975-984
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    • 2005
  • This study fulfilled to investigate the feed efficiency, tissue selenium distribution, carcass characteristic and economic value in finishing Hanwoo steers fed organic selenium mix (OSM) which included seleno-yeast, rumen culture and other microbial supplements. Forty five finishing Hanwoo steers were tested for 4 months dividing to three feeding groups: OSM add as 0.5 ppm Se of DM feeds (0.5 ppm OSM), OSM enriched add as 1.0 ppm Se of DM feeds (1.0 ppm OSM) and basal diet without OSM (control). The total weight gains, the average daily gains and the feed intakes were not differ in treatments (p > 0.05). No differences (p > 0.05) were noted for hot carcass weight, loin eye area, backfat thickness, meat yield index, meat color, fat color, tenderness and maturity. However, the 1.0 ppm OSM showed better performances for feed requirement, TDN per gain, meat yield grade and meat quality grade compared to other groups. Tissue selenium distribution was increased by organic selenium feeding: higher Se concentration in liver and rump of 0.5 ppm OSM (p < 0.05), and kidney, liver, sirloin and rump of 1.0 ppm OSM (p < 0.05) than the tissues of control group. Generally, tissue selenium was the highest value in 1.0 ppm OSM and showed higher concentrate in order; kidney, liver, sirloin and rump. The income over feed cost was 1.06-fold higher in 1.0 ppm OSM than control group. In conclusion, organic selenium mix supplementation and its amounts were not influenced to feed intake, body gain and carcass characteristic but significantly increased tissue selenium. Therefore, these results suggest that finishing Hanwoo steer fed an enriched organic selenium mix with proper probiotics is able to produce “high-Se” beef as high bioavailable form as well as create a beneficial opportunity on Hanwoo farm.

Estimation Analysis of the Value of Welfare Facilities for the Aged Management (노인복지시설의 경영가치 추정 분석)

  • Kim, Keum Hwan;Pak, Ae Kyung;Joe, Soon Joem
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.193-203
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    • 2013
  • The social welfare service is expanding to different field as the social welfare budget is increasing. By this opportunity, it needs to make clear of the basis of argument that the necessity of development of korean government's support and aid by social policy should be worked. Welfare economics perspective, this study used by the operating expenditure in welfare facilities for the elderly old people to effect social benefits to be gained, in other words, business value analysis. Local elderly people, provide opportunities to participate in the economic activities of the family welfare services offered to attainment of the elderly welfare policy, and provide disease prevention and health promotion opportunities, to enhance the satisfaction of life, including a wide range of impact will cause. In this study, elderly people use the welfare facilities for the elderly when they get the benefits by applying the AHP analysis techniques operating value was calculated. Elderly Welfare Center operated by the result of applying P senior welfare center Case of the metropolitan area value was estimated 248.4 billion won. Contribute to the effects caused by the cost factor of the analysis was 23.1% of the total 57.3 billion won. Independence elements 57.6 billion (23.2%), the analysis of the therapeutic elements 133.4 billion (53.7%) of the net was. The result of the study anticipates the role of basic research material for the necessity of intervention, support, and aid by the Welfare facilities for the elderly field at this point in time where the welfare budget policy in terms of universal social service is reinforced, rather than the trend, until recently, of realizing the Elderly welfare budget and service as Consumption expenditure and consumable benefits and the function of performing the effect and evaluation in tentative action of social conflict.

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Discussion on the Strategic Priorities and Navy's Coping in the Interwar Period Britain, 1919?1939 (「전간기 영국의 전략 우선순위 논의와 영국해군의 대응, 1919-1939」)

  • Jeon, Yoon-Jae
    • Strategy21
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    • s.32
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    • pp.123-159
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this research paper is to re-valuate the factors that affected the Royal Navy's rearmament and preparation for war by conducting analysis on the discussion held in the Britain on the strategic priorities and Navy's coping measures adopted during the interwar period. After the end of the WWI, each of the military arms of the Britain faced significant difficulty in securing budget and increasing their military power all throughout the interwar period, and the Navy was not an exception. The WWII that got started on September 1939 was the turning point in which this difficulty led to full-fledged crisis. Immensely many criticisms followed after the war and problems were identified when it comes to the Royal Navy's performance during the war. This type of effort to identify problem led to the attempt to analyze whether Royal Navy's preparation for war and rearmament policy during interwar period were adequate, and to identify the root causes of failure. Existing studies sought to find the root cause of failed rearmament from external factors such as the deterioration of the Britain itself or pressure from the Treasury Department to cut the budget for national defense, or sought to detect problems from the development of wrong strategies by the Navy. However, Royal Navy's failed preparation for the war during interwar period is not the result of one or two separate factors. Instead, it resulted due to the diverse factors and situations that the Britain was facing at the time, and due to intricate and complex interaction of these factors. Meanwhile, this research paper focused on the context characterized by 'strategic selection and setting up of priorities' among the various factors to conduct analysis on the Navy's rearmament by linking it with the discussion held at the time on setting up strategic priorities, and sought to demonstrate that the Navy Department's inadequate counter-measures developed during this process waned Royal Navy's position. After the end of WWI, each of the military arms continued to compete for the limited resources and budget all throughout the interwar period, and this type of competition amidst the situation in which the economic situation of Britain was still unstable, made prioritization when it comes to the allocation of resources and setting up of the priorities when it comes to the military power build-up, inevitable. Amidst this situation, the RAF was able to secure resources first and foremost, encouraged by the conviction of some politicians who were affected by the 'theory of aerial threat' and who believed that curtailing potential attack with the Air Force would be means to secure national security at comparatively lower cost. In response, Navy successfully defended the need for the existence of Navy despite the advancement of the aerial power, by emphasizing that the Britain's livelihood depends on trade and on the maintenance of maritime traffic. Despite this counter-measuring logic, however, Navy's role was still limited to the defense of overseas territory and to the fleet run-off instead of sea traffic route production when it comes to the specific power build-up plan, and did not understand the situation in which financial and economic factors gained greater importance when it comes to the setting up of strategic priorities. As a result, Navy's plan to build its powers was met with continual resistance of the Treasury Department, and lost the opportunity to re-gain the status of 'senior service' that it had enjoyed in the past during the competition for strategic prioritization. Given that the strategic and economic situation that Korea faces today is not very different from that of the Britain during the interwar period, our Navy too should leverage the lessons learned from the Royal Navy to make the effort to secure viable position when it comes to the setting of priorities in case of national defense strategy by presenting the basis on why maritime coping should be prioritized among the numerous other threats, and by developing the measures for securing the powers needed effectively amidst the limited resources.

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Institutionalization of the Value of Ecosystem services (생태계 서비스 가치의 제도화)

  • Hwang, Eun-Ju;Chun, Jae-Kyong
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.337-343
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    • 2017
  • This study is going to contribute the activation of ecosystem services written in the 3rd National Basic Plan for Nature Conservation(2016~2025) in Korea. Meanwhile we considered the benefits that the nature has given to the humankind as free goods or services which we may consume traditionally without due payment therefore. But on account of the expansion of cities and expedition of development, as the carrying capacity of the nature has been breached, people have come to try to restore and enhance artificially such vulnerable capacity. It is necessary to compensate the opportunity cost which the land owners or occupiers have to pay for conservation and maintenance of natural capitals which yield the ecosystem services. Therefore the institutionalization of ecosystem services should be established that the consumers who enjoy such services should share the interest from enjoying services with the land owners or occupiers who produce the ecosystem services, under the legal system which will make it possible to connect the benefit sharing with the conservation of environment. However it is the first task that the present legal system could not realize the fair and equitable benefit sharing between the producers and consumers of ecosystem services. And the second task in such legal system is that the value of ecosystem services could not be fully considered in the process of development planning. According to the analysis of this study, the institutionalization of ecosystem services in the government side and the civilian side could be realized to somewhat extent, although not sufficient. Especially the transactions of ecosystem services through the private contract among stakeholder are possible in the course of development planning or without any relevancy to a development project. The final task in the institutionalization of ecosystem services is how to assess the ecosystem services and to value the economic benefits therefrom on the basis of what kinds of procedures relating to some development processes. To overcome such difficulties, it is necessary that the state, trend and change of ecosystem services confronting with a developing project should be assessed concretely at the threshold of development. It is possible to integrate the ecosystem services into the environmental impact assessment(IEA), not by way of the Act of IEA, but by way of the Decree thereof.

Appraisal of the Special Production Area Development Project in Rural Area and Countermeasures for Off-farm Income Increase (The Case of Chungnam Province) (농어촌(農漁村) 특산단지개발사업(特産團地開發事業)의 평가(評價)와 농외소득증대방안(農外所得增大方案) (충청남도(忠淸南道)를 중심(中心)으로))

  • Lim, Jae Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.164-179
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    • 1991
  • Korean agriculture has encountered two problems. One is internal income disparity between rural and urbarn area and the other is external Uruguay Round trade problems as an abolition of direct and indirect import barriers, reduction in export subsidies and to reduce internal price supports. These problems will be brought severe farm problems such as decreasing farm household income and repressing agricultural growth in the near future. Considering the above inevitable facts Korean government has implemented several development projects such as rural industrial area development project, rural special production area development project, leisuresight seeing farm development project, traditional food development project, unskilled labor training project for off-farm employment and so on, to increase farm household income through off-farm income increase. This study was mainly concentrated on the identification of operational problems and post evaluation of the rural special production area development projects which aimed at increasing non-farm incomes and giving employment opportunity for rural farmers in small factories processing regional special farm products and mine products. The main findings and problems to be solved for the successful project implementation are as followed ; 1. Total number of the special production area development projects as of the end of 1991 was amount to 138, and total number of farm household participated were estimated at 2,079, and total amount of off-farm income per farm household was reached to 3,011 thousand won. 2. The total number of processed special products have increased from 21 items in 1981 to 56 items in 1991. On the other hand the total number of farm household participated in the projects have decreased from 2,518 to 2,079 during same period. 3. Total amount of investment for the projects has increased from 1,429 million won in 1981 to 24,760 million won in 1991 but the rate of G'T loan of the total investment has reduced from 24.5% to 5.2% during same period. 4. 138 special production area development project are classified into 6 kinds of commodity groups such as 19 of general industrial good production areas, 52 of folks-industrial art objects production areas, 39 of food processing areas, 9 of fiber and texstile processing areas, 18 of agricultural and fishery inputs processing areas and 1 of stone processing area. 5. The total production value in 1990 was estimated 20,169 million won of which export was amount to 2,627 million won. 6. The finacial rate of return of the UNGOK KUGIJA Tea processing Project operated by UNGOK coops and BAKSAN ginseng tea processing project were estimated at 45.4% (B/C Ratio=1.17, NPV=152.5 million won) and 17.7% (B/C Ratio=1.12, NPV=120.2 million won) respectively. 7. More favorite terms and condition of the loan including collateral problems have to be given to farmers participated. Heavy investment and G'T subsidy policies should be started for the successful project implementation anf farm household income increase. 8. To expand market demand of the rural special goods G'T have to provide special program of TV or other mass media for commodity propaganda and the total cost concerned must be supported by G'T subsidy. 9. The special farm products as GUGUJA,MOSI'Ramie', Ginseng. SOGOKJU,HEMP,Mushroom.DUGYUNJU and Chesnut processing projects have to be propelled and expanded for off-farm income increase in Chung Nam Province. 10. Direct operational pattern of the special production area by coops is more favorable to farmers and recommendable considering with off-farm income increase and market demand creation throughout Korea. 11. In rural area, special organizations for project appraisal are not exist. Accordingly special training program, project appraisal, formulation and preparation for civil servants concerned have to be prepared for project selection and sound implementation under limited budget and financial support.

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The Study on the Plan to Introduce Traffic Inducement Security System in Korea (우리나라 교통유도경비 도입방안의 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Hwan
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.23
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    • pp.21-39
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    • 2010
  • The dangerous impact on the traffic flows of cars is caused by no only the construction on the street but diverse construction sites. This in turn substantially influence on the citizens and pedestrians, thereby bring about the possibility of giant incidents. As the countermeasure for the problem in advanced countries, particularly in Japan "traffic inducement security system" has been implemented. It is analyzed that the death toll from traffic accidents has considerably declined. In the case of South Korea the system has not been administered but restrictively executed at some construction sites; however proceeding it with the lack of professionalism. The introduction of traffic inducement security system would be the opportunity for South Korea to make a progress in the safety culture such as traffic security and traffic jam. This study thus aims at analyzing the advanced countries' cases, conducting comparative analysis with Korea's scheme, and establishing the plan to adopt the traffic inducement security system. Through the output of this study followings were proposed as plans of introducing the traffic inducement security system. First of all, legal assessments regarding traffic inducement operation, for example adding the operation of the system into the category of security service, need to be preceded prior to its introduction secondly, the traffic inducement security is the institution which can contribute to the improvement of traffic safety, and also internalizing social cost. therefore, it needs to be equipped with the new qualification such as the instruction with the standardized traffic safety map, instruction system, curriculum and the publication of teaching materials. thirdly, the education for the guard should be proceeded with dividing academic and technical ones with specific curriculum. At the fourth, the securement of the venue for the driving training, the determination on technical instruction contents and the training professional instructor needs for the method of administration. In addition, the efforts on the overal standardization of traffic inducement security is necessary, and it also requires constant collaboration among private security industry, academia, professionals, relavant research institutes, etc. At the last but the least, henceforth it is prerequisite that the networking system with a diverse array of associated entities due to its social ripple effect and job creation effect.

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The Situation and the Tasks of UK Rail Privatization, Focusing on after the Hatfield Accident (영국 철도 민영화의 현황 및 과제 (Hatfield사고 이후의 변화를 중심으로))

  • Lee, Yong-Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.2 s.88
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 2006
  • This paper examines the situation and tasks of UK rail privatization, especially focusing on after the Hatfield rail accident. Earlier research which focused on the UK's Privatization had little knowledge of the explanations for recent changes. Moreover they had difficulty making a direct comparison between national rail and the privatized rail. Therefore we aye left without a good explanation which has a comprehensive perspective. I attempt to show the change in the rail privatization Process and its outcome, focusing on after the Hatfield rail accident. This Paper argues that the UK's vail privatization process has a regulatory framework which is too complicated with overlapping responsibilities that brought about inefficiency, increasing costs and a superficial safety regime. Especially the planning of rail and infrastructure maintenance did not come to play an appropriate role. However after 2000, the government took charge of setting the strategy for railways, and the Office of Rail Regulation covered safety performance and cost. explain that these changes present a good opportunity to solve the problem of passing the buck for poor performance. Through the analysis, I find that the passenger rail network is well-suited to deliver long distance business and commuters and that the subsidy from the government is decreasing. However, performance, for example punctuality and reliability. should be improved. Especially the Hatfield rail accident caused a reduction in the satisfaction of passengers. In future. the problems of rising costs and monopoly franchise system should be addressed.

The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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