• Title/Summary/Keyword: Oil Supply Shock

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Heterogeneous Responds to Demand and Supply Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from Korea (수요와 공급 요인의 유가쇼크에 대한 한국 경제의 상이한 반응)

  • Jung, Heonyong
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.93-98
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    • 2018
  • The article studies macroeconomic effects of the oil shock for Korea, which is a representative emerging economy of Asia and a small open economy. This article analyzed the macroeconomic effects of oil shocks in terms of demand and supply. In the case of Korea, oil price shocks different responds depending on factors of shock. Oil supply shock have led to a decline in industrial activity and interest rate, and oil specific demand shock have shown the greatest increase in interest rate relative to other oil price shocks. In addition, oil demand shock driven by economic activity showed that the comsumer price and the exchange rate are the largest compared to the oil shock caused by other factors. Therefore, policy makers will need to identify the source of the oil shock.

Oil Price Forecasting : A Markov Switching Approach with Unobserved Component Model

  • Nam, Si-Kyung;Sohn, Young-Woo
    • Management Science and Financial Engineering
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.105-118
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    • 2008
  • There are many debates on the topic of the relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Through the repeated processes of conformations and contractions on the subject, two main issues are developed; one is how to define and drive oil shocks from oil prices, and the other is how to specify an econometric model to reflect the asymmetric relations between oil prices and output growth. The study, thus, introduces the unobserved component model to pick up the oil shocks and a first-order Markov switching model to reflect the asymmetric features. We finally employ unique oil shock variables from the stochastic trend components of oil prices and adapt four lags of the mean growth Markov Switching model. The results indicate that oil shocks exert more impact to recessionary state than expansionary state and the supply-side oil shocks are more persistent and significant than the demand-side shocks.

A Bayesian Analysis of Structural Changes in Aggregate Demand and Supply of Korean Economy (한국경제의 총수요와 총공급에서의 베이지안 구조변화 분석)

  • Jun, Duk-Bin;Park, Dae-Keun
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.475-483
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    • 1998
  • Structural changes in an economy system bring about serious problems in establishing economic policies. The boom of middle-east export, the oil shock, and the recent dollar crisis in Korean economy are such examples. Hence, it is necessary to identify and estimate those structural changes. This study focuses on an output and price and analyzes structural changes in aggregate demand and supply. The aggregate demand and supply structures are described by conventional dynamic simultaneous equations model, where each structural change is represented by dummy variables and estimated by the proposed Bayesian method. By applying this model to Korean output and price, structural changes in the aggregate demand and supply are analyzed.

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A Study on Regional Blocs of International Crude Oil Futures Market (국제 원유선물시장의 지역블록화에 관한 연구)

  • Rui Ma;Yin-Hua Li
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 2022
  • This study intends to examine the regional blocs of the international crude oil futures market by analyzing the dynamic conditional correlation between the international crude oil futures markets using the DCC-GARCH model. For statistical data, from April 2, 2018 to March 31, 2022, international crude oil futures prices such as Europe, the United States, China, and Dubai were used. To summarize the results of the study, first, the phenomenon of regional blocs in the international crude oil futures market is occurring, and it is found that it is gradually strengthening as time goes by. Second, it was found that the dynamic correlation of the international crude oil futures market is temporarily strengthened when a supply-demand imbalance problem occurs due to a global shock. Third, it was found that the volatility of the Chinese crude oil futures market affects the international crude oil futures market. This study confirmed that the regional blocs phenomenon in the international crude oil futures market is strengthened as time goes by. In particular, it suggested that China's influence in the international oil market would increase.

Development of a Robot System for Monitoring and Repairing a Underground Pipe (지하매설 배관의 탐사 및 도장을 위한 로봇시스템 개발)

  • Yeo, Hee-Joo;Sung, Mun-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.346-348
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    • 2007
  • Underground pipe is an instrument to transport rapidly and safely a lot of fluid like gas, oil, water supply and drain system. It acts like blood vessels of human body in a modern industry. As in this country, the pipe facilities have been constructing since 1970's. The pipes constructed for a long time ago are already starting to reveal the problem like corrosion and most of them are built underground. So for companies, the managing of the underground pipes is very hard because it needs high technology and a lot of money. So we made a new robot system to repair and maintain the pipes at a low price. This new robot is devised using pressing wall type to work inside 700${\sim}$900(mm) size pipe. And it has good carrying and working power.

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A STUDY ON DEGREASING DETERGENT AND METHOD FOR THE IPP TEST FACILITY

  • Kim Yong-Wook;Lee Jung-Ho;Kang Sun-Il;Kim Sang-Heon;Oh Seung-Hyub
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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    • 2004.10b
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    • pp.262-265
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    • 2004
  • As a cryogen, LOx is a light blue, odorless, transparent liquid. Also it is not shock sensitive and does not decompose. However, it is a strong oxidizer and will vigorously support combustion. Therefore all harmful contaminants (such as grease, oil, fingerprint and organic materials) that could cause malfunctions, fires, or explosions in a oxygen environments must be completely removed prior to the introduction of oxygen. Especially, grease ingredient located inside of the LOx supply line, pipe and PHS (Pneumo-Hydraulic System) part can make drastic chemical reaction with oxygen. Therefore, to protect rapid reaction such as explosion, grease ingredient must be surely eliminated by a regular and irregular degreasing. Study on the availability, effectiveness and selection of degreasing detergents and method is described in this paper, and it will be useful for the construction and management of IPP test facility.

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Nuclear Power Ceneration : Past, Present and Future (″원자력발전의 과거와 미래″)

  • 정남교
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.12-14
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    • 2000
  • Korean government adopted nuclear energy as a key energy source to reconstruct the shattered Korean economy caused by the oil shock in the 1970s, by securing cheap and stable electricity supply. During the 1980s, nuclear energy Played a crucial role as a foundation stone in the rapid growth of Korean economy. In addition, since 1997 nuclear energy has discharged its duty as a leading energy source to overcome the IMF foreign currency crisis. Finally, in 1999 the Korean nuclear power plants achieved the highest performance results compared with others in the world. In this article, I am going to look through the current status of Korean nuclear power generantion with an index of its development and I would like to suggest necessary tasks to Korean nuclear power industries to become more competitive in the future.

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Structural Shocks of the Korean Economy: A Structural VAR Approach (통화(通貨)·물가(物價)·명목임금(名目賃金)의 장단기(長短期) 동학(動學)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Jun, Sung-in
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.37-60
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    • 1992
  • This paper applies a Structural VAR approach to a 4 variable system in real GNP, M2, GNP deflator and nominal monthly earnings, disentangling 4 structural shocks, i.e., aggregate demand and supply shocks, wage pushes and various forms of regulations reinforced especially during stabilization process. Preliminary diagnostic tests confirm that the log level of each time series has at least one unit root, though the evidence is somewhat ambiguous for real GNP. One co-integration relationship is found among 4 variables, while no co-integration is found in a subsystem consisting of nomina) variables. The absence of co-integration among nominal variables strongly suggested that money is not neutral even in the long-run. The reduced form is estimated and the structural form is recovered using 6 additional identifying restrictions. Recovered structural shocks are able to capture main episodes of past 20 years, ranging from first and second oil shocks, to strong stabilization policy of early 80's and rapid wage hikes of late 80's. Overall responses of the economy to each structural shock are usually consistent with the standard Keynesian predictions, though some responses seem to be specific to Korean economic environment.

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