• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.38 no.4
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• pp.503-516
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• 2011

Uncertainty in concrete properties, including concrete modulus of elasticity and modulus of rupture, are predicted by developing a microstructural homogenization model. The homogenization model is developed by analyzing a concrete representative volume element (RVE) using the finite element (FE) method. The concrete RVE considers concrete as a three phase composite material including: cement paste, aggregate and interfacial transition zone (ITZ). The homogenization model allows for considering two sources of variability in concrete, randomly dispersed aggregates in the concrete matrix and uncertain mechanical properties of composite phases of concrete. Using the proposed homogenization technique, the uncertainty in concrete modulus of elasticity and modulus of rupture (described by numerical cumulative probability density function) are determined. Deflection uncertainty of reinforced concrete (RC) beams, propagated from uncertainties in concrete properties, is quantified using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. Cracked plane frame analysis is used to account for tension stiffening in concrete. Concrete homogenization enables a unique opportunity to bridge the gap between concrete materials and structural modeling, which is necessary for realistic serviceability prediction.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.64-69
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• 1993

In this paper we present the performance bounds of the optimal FIR filter in continuous time systems with modeling uncertainty. The performance measure bounds are calculated from the estimation error covariance bounds of the optimal FIR filter and the suboptimal FIR filter. Performance error bounds range are expressed by the upper bounds on the estimation error covariance difference between the real and nominal values in case of the systems with noise uncertainty or model uncertainty. The performance bounds of the systems are derived on the assumption that the system uncertainty and the estimation error covariance are imperfectly known a priori. The estimation error bounds of the optimal FIR filter is compared with those of the Kalman filter via a numerical example applied to the estimation of the motion of an aircraft carrier at sea, which shows the former has better performances than the latter.

• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.29-36
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• 2007

The smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method is applied to construct the dispersion of fluctuations in quasi-hydrostatic configuration of an isothermal self-gravitating slab. The uncertainty of the implementation is evaluated, and a novel technique (acceleration error) is proposed to weaken this uncertainty. The two-fluid quasi-hydrostatic diffusion of small fluctuations is used to support the importance of the acceleration error. The results show that the uncertainty converges to a few percent by increasing of the SPH particle numbers. Considering the acceleration error weakens the uncertainty, and prohibits the serious dynamical consequences in slow dispersion of fluctuation in the quasi-hydrostatic evolution of the slab.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.18 no.10
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• pp.895-901
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• 2012

The stability robustness problem of linear discrete systems with time-varying unstructured uncertainty of delayed states with time-varying delay time is considered. The proposed conditions for stability can be used for finding allowable bounds of timevarying uncertainty and delay time, which are solved by using LMI (Linear Matrix Inequality) and GEVP (Generalized Eigenvalue Problem) known as powerful computational methods. Furthermore, the conditions can imply the several previous results on the uncertainty bounds of time-invariant delayed states. Numerical examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

• Atmosphere
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 2015

The most objective way to overcome the limitation of numerical weather prediction model is to represent the uncertainty of prediction by introducing probabilistic forecast. The uncertainty of the numerical weather prediction system developed due to the parameterization of unresolved scale motions and the energy losses from the sub-scale physical processes. In this study, we focused on the growth of model errors. We performed ensemble forecast to represent model uncertainty. By employing the multi-physics scheme (PHYS) and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) in simulating typhoon Rusa (2002), we assessed the performance level of the two schemes. The both schemes produced better results than the control run did in the ensemble mean forecast of the track. The results using PHYS improved by 28% and those based on SKEBS did by 7%. Both of the ensemble mean errors of the both schemes increased rapidly at the forecast time 84 hrs. The both ensemble spreads increased gradually during integration. The results based on SKEBS represented model errors very well during the forecast time of 96 hrs. After the period, it produced an under-dispersive pattern. The simulation based on PHYS overestimated the ensemble mean error during integration and represented the real situation well at the forecast time of 120 hrs. The displacement speed of the typhoon based on PHYS was closest to the best track, especially after landfall. In the sensitivity tests of the model uncertainty of SKEBS, ensemble mean forecast was sensitive to the physics parameterization. By adjusting the forcing parameter of SKEBS, the default experiment improved in the ensemble spread, ensemble mean errors, and moving speed.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.630-635
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• 2018

In this paper, we consider the stability condition for the linear discrete systems with time-varying delay and unstructured uncertainty. The considered system has time invariant system matrices for non-delayed and delayed state variables, but its delay time is time-varying within certain interval and it is subjected to nonlinear unstructured uncertainty which only gives information on uncertainty magnitude. In the many previous literatures, the time-varying delay and unstructured uncertainty can not be dealt in simultaneously but separately. In the paper, new stability conditions are derived for the case to which two factors are subjected together and compared with the existing results considering only one factor. The new stability conditions improving many previous results are proposed as very effective inequality equations without complex numerical algorithms such as LMI(Linear Matrix Inequality) or Lyapunov equation. By numerical examples, it is shown that the proposed conditions are able to include the many existing results and have better performances in the aspects of expandability and effectiveness.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.112-120
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• 2019

To improve the reliability of a safety assessment using a fire simulation in domestic PBD, the evaluation method of ASET considering the uncertainties of the input parameters and numerical model of fire simulation was carried out. To this end, a cinema and officetel were selected as the representative fire spaces. The main results were as follows. Considering the uncertainty of the heat release rate, which has the greatest effect on the major physical quantities presented in the life safety standard, significant changes in temperature, CO, and visibility occurred. In addition, when the bias factors reflecting the uncertainty of the numerical model were applied, there were no significant changes in temperature and CO concentration. On the other hand, the visibility was increased considerably due to the low prediction performance of smoke concentration in FDS. Finally, the reason why the physical quantity determining the ASET in domestic PBD is mainly visibility was discussed, and the application of uncertainty of the input parameters and numerical model in a fire simulation was suggested for an accurate ASET evaluation.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-20
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• 2009

The present contribution addresses uncertainty quantification and uncertainty propagation in structural mechanics using stochastic analysis. Presently available procedures to describe uncertainties in load and resistance within a suitable mathematical framework are shortly addressed. Monte Carlo methods are proposed for studying the variability in the structural properties and for their propagation to the response. The general applicability and versatility of Monte Carlo Simulation is demonstrated in the context with computational models that have been developed for deterministic structural analysis. After discussing Direct Monte Carlo Simulation for the assessment of the response variability, some recently developed advanced Monte Carlo methods applied for reliability assessment are described, such as Importance Sampling for linear uncertain structures subjected to Gaussian loading, Line Sampling in linear dynamics and Subset simulation. The numerical example demonstrates the applicability of Line Sampling to general linear uncertain FE systems under Gaussian distributed excitation.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.6 no.11
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• pp.963-967
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• 2000

This paper deals with a sliding mode control with uncertainty adaptation for the robust stabilization of input-delay systems with unknown uncertainties. A sliding surface including a state predictor is employed to compensate for the effect of the input delay. The proposed method does not need a priori knowledge of upper bounds on the norm of uncertainties, but estimates those upper bounds by adaptation laws based on the sliding surface. Then, a robust control law with the uncertainty adaptation is derived to ensure the existence of the sliding mode. A numerical example is given to illustrate the design procedure.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1995.10a
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• pp.352-355
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• 1995

In this paper, estimation error bounds of the optimal FIR (Finite Impulse Response) filter, which is proposed by Kwon et al.[1, 2], are presented in discrete-time systems with the model uncertainty. Performance bounds are here represented by the upper bounds on the difference of the estimation error covariances between the nominal and real values in case of the systems with the noise or model parameter uncertainty. The estimation error bounds of the discrete-time optimal FIR filter is compared with those of the Kalman filter via a numerical example applied to the simulation problem by Toda and Patel[3]. Simulation results show that the former has robuster performance than the latter.