• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.306-314
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• 2015

This paper examines the difference in the value of the nuclear fuel cycle cost calculated by the deterministic and probabilistic methods on the basis of an equilibrium model. Calculating using the deterministic method, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR (sodium-cooled fast reactor) nuclear fuel cycle cost, including the reactor cost, were found to be 66.41 mills/kWh and 77.82 mills/kWh, respectively (1 mill = one thousand of a dollar, i.e., $10^{-3}$ $). This is because the cost of SFR is considerably expensive. Calculating again using the probabilistic method, however, the direct disposal cost and Pyro-SFR nuclear fuel cycle cost, excluding the reactor cost, were found be 7.47 mills/kWh and 6.40 mills/kWh, respectively, on the basis of the most likely value. This is because the nuclear fuel cycle cost is significantly affected by the standard deviation and the mean of the unit cost that includes uncertainty. Thus, it is judged that not only the deterministic method, but also the probabilistic method, would also be necessary to evaluate the nuclear fuel cycle cost. By analyzing the sensitivity of the unit cost in each phase of the nuclear fuel cycle, it was found that the uranium unit price is the most influential factor in determining nuclear fuel cycle costs.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제49권5호
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• pp.1063-1070
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• 2017

This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.243-251
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• 2015

국내 원자력발전은 현재 두 번째로 큰 전력 공급 방법이며 원전의 수 역시 증가되는 것으로 계획되어 있다. 그러나, 원자력발전에 의해 발생되는 사용후핵연료에 대해서는 아직 명확한 관리 정책이 확립되어 있지 않다. 원자로 이 후 핵물질 흐름과 관련된 후행 핵연료주기는 사용후핵연료 관리를 위한 기술들의 집합이다. 따라서, 사용후핵연료 관리 정책은 핵연료주기 선택과 함께한다. 핵연료주기 선택의 중요 항목은 경제성으로 이는 사적비용과 함께 외부비용을 더해 결정되어야 한다. 직접비용 인 사적비용과 달리 간접비용인 외부비용에 대한 연구는 원전에 집중되어 있으며 핵연료주기에 대한 연구는 없는 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 핵연료주기에 적용할 수 있는 외부비용 항목들을 도출하고 정량화를 시도하였다. 핵연료주기 외부비용 평가를 위해 고려될 수 있는 핵연료주기로 OT(직접처분), DUPIC(PWR-CANDU 연결), PWR-MOX(PWR 습식재처리), Pyro-SFR (파이로 처리와 고속로 연계)의 네 가지를 선정하였다. 원자력발전의 외부비용 평가에 고려되었던 항목들을 분석하여 핵연료주기에서 에너지 공급 안보비용, 사고위험비용과 수용성 비용을 외부비용 항목으로 도출하고 추산하였다.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.271-282
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• 2015

외부비용은 재화나 서비스가 생산 또는 소비되는 과정에서 제3자에게 부과되는 비용이다. 원자력 발전을 통한 전력생산에도 외부비용이 발생하며 이들에 대한 연구가 1990년대부터 진행되어 왔다. 비용은 정책결정에 중요한 요소로 전력 생산에 대한 비용 비교를 위해 외부비용이 고려되고 있다. 핵연료주기에서도 선택에 따라 다른 외부비용이 발생되지만 이에 대한 연구는 진행되고 있지 않다. 본 연구에서는 핵연료주기 외부비용 평가 방법 개발을 위해 원자력 발전에 대한 외부비용 평가방법을 조사하고 분석하였다. 후쿠시마 사고 이전에는 외부비용 연구들은 정상 운전 상태에서의 손상 비용에 초점을 두었다. 그러나 사고 이후 사고비용이 주요 주제가 되었다. 사고비용을 포함한 외부비용 범위는 여러 연구들에서 다양하게 사용되었으며 범위에 맞춰 다른 방법들이 적용되었다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 결과들이 비교되었으며 핵연료주기에 따른 외부비 용 추산에 방법적 적용성 판단을 위해 분석되었다.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.385-391
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• 2006

연구용원자로 해체비용은 해체대상물에 대한 특성 및 제원에 맞게 해체작업을 분류하고 구성요소를 설정하여 단위비용인자를 바탕으로 한 공학적 비용 산정 방법으로 해체비용을 산정한다. 연구용원자로에 대한 해체비용은 크게 인건비, 장비 및 재료비로 구성이 되는데 해체작업에 소요되는 인건비는 해체대상물에 소요되는 작업시간을 바탕으로 계산을 한다. 본 논문에서는 연구용원자로 해체비용 산정 시 인건비 계산에 필요한 단위비용인자 및 작업 난이도 인자를 산출하였다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 7th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management Summit Forum on Sustainable Construction and Management
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• pp.133-137
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• 2017

Nuclear power plants in Korea are usually built based on a duplicated model; so the project cost data of the preceding unit can be used as reference when estimating the project cost for the succeeding unit. However, since the contracting method is oriented towards the price, empirical factors such as making top-down estimations using the reverse calculation method based on the completion cost of the preceding unit is dominant. In order to develop a project cost database to resolve such problems, the detailed cost boundary of the project cost data must be categorized by project and by system. This study proposes a method to connect the code of account with the base quantities and the IAEA account, and proposes a database structure for the development of a project cost estimation system. The estimation system developed in the future is expected to utilize the proposed project cost data structure.

• 경영과학
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.139-148
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• 2013

A nuclear energy has been one of the most important sources to securely supply electricity in South Korea. Its weight in the national electricity supply has kept increasing since the first nuclear reactor was built in 1978. The country relies on the nuclear approximately 31.4% in 2012 and it is expected to increase to 48.5% in 2024 based on the long-term electricity supply plan announced by the Korean government. However, Fukushima disaster due to 9.0 magnitude earthquake followed by the tsunami has raised deep concerns on the security of the nuclear power plants. The policy makers of the country are much interested in analyzing the cost structure of the power supply in the case that the nuclear is diminished from the current supply portion. This research uses a stochastic model that aims to evaluate the long-term power supply plan and provides an extensive cost analysis on the changes of the nuclear power supply. To evaluate a power supply plan, the research develops a few plausible energy mix scenarios by changing the installed capacities of energy sources from the long-term electricity supply plan. The analyses show that the nuclear is still the most attractive energy source since its fuel cost is very much stable compared to the other sources. Also the results demonstrate that a large amount of financial expenditure is additionally required every year if Koreans agree on the reduction of nuclear to increase national security against a nuclear disaster.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제47권7호
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• pp.849-858
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• 2015

This study set the pyroprocess facility at an engineering scale as a cost object, and presented the cost consumed during the unit processes of the pyroprocess. For the cost calculation, the activity based costing (ABC) method was used instead of the engineering cost estimation method, which calculates the cost based on the conceptual design of the pyroprocess facility. The calculation results demonstrate that the pyroprocess facility's unit process cost is $194/kgHM for pretreatment, $298/kgHM for electrochemical reduction, $226/kgHM for electrorefining, and $299/kgHM for electrowinning. An analysis demonstrated that the share of each unit process cost among the total pyroprocess cost is as follows: 19% for pretreatment, 29% for electrochemical reduction, 22% for electrorefining, and 30% for electrowinning. The total unit cost of the pyroprocess was calculated at $1,017/kgHM. In the end, electrochemical reduction and the electrowinning process took up most of the cost, and the individual costs for these two processes was found to be similar. This is because significant raw material cost is required for the electrochemical reduction process, which uses platinum as an anode electrode. In addition, significant raw material costs are required, such as for $Li_3PO_4$, which is used a lot during the salt purification process.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.367-391
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• 2013

후쿠시마원자력발전소의 사고를 계기로 원전의 안전대책비용, 사고위험대응비용과 같은 외부비용들의 존재가 부각되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 원전의 외부비용들 중에서 추가안전대책비용과 사고위험대응비용을 추정하고, 이를 발전원가 및 전기요금에 반영하여 변화정도를 살폈다. 원전의 추가안전대책비용은 70~90%의 이용률에서 0.53원/kWh~0.80원/kWh으로 원전의 발전원가에 큰 영향을 미치지는 않는다. 사고위험대응비용은 원전사고피해규모별, 사고발생빈도별, 이용률별로 0.0025원/kWh~26.4188원/kWh로 추정되었다. 사고위험대응비용을 포함시키면 원전발전원가는 47.58원/kWh~85.92원/kWh가 된다. 2011년을 기준으로 사고위험대응비용을 내부화한 경우의 전기요금의 증가율은 70~90%의 이용률에서 0.001%~10.0563% 로 추정되었다. 본 연구는 원전의 외부비용을 내부화하는 방법으로서 외부비용을 발전원가에 포함하여 전기요금에 반영하였다. 본 연구는 지금까지 우리나라에 논의되지 않았던 원전 외부비용을 내부화하는 방법의 하나가 될 것이다.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.541-550
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• 2022

When decommissioning nuclear power plant (NPP), the first task performed is cost estimation. This is an important task in terms of securing adequate decommissioning funds and managing the schedule. Therefore, many countries and institutions are conducting continuous research and also developing and using many programs for cost estimation. However, the cost estimated for decommissioning an NPP typically differs from the actual cost incurred in its decommissioning. This is caused by insufficient experience in decommissioning NPPs or lack of decommissioning cost data. This uncertainty in cost estimation can be in general compensated for by applying a contingency. However, reflecting an appropriate standard for the contingency is also difficult. Therefore, in this study, data analysis was conducted based on the contingency guideline suggested by each institution and the actual cost of decommissioning the NPP. Subsequently, TLG Service, Inc.'s process, which recently suggested specific decommissioning costs, was matched with ISDC (International Structure for Decommissioning Costing)'s work breakdown structure (WBS). Based on the matching result, the guideline for applying the contingency for ISDC's WBS Level 1 were presented. This study will be helpful in cost estimation by applying appropriate contingency guidelines in countries or institutions that have no experience in decommissioning NPPs.