• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.291-303
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• 2018

In this study, a new consensus technique for predicting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in the western North Pacific was developed. The most important feature of the present consensus model is to select and combine the guidance numerical models with the best performance in the previous years based on various evaluation criteria and averaging methods. Specifically, the performance of the guidance models was evaluated using both the mean absolute error and the correlation coefficient for each forecast lead time, and the number of the numerical models used for the consensus model was not fixed. In averaging multiple models, both simple and weighted methods are used. These approaches are important because that the performance of the available guidance models differs according to forecast lead time and is changing every year. In particular, this study develops both a multi-consensus model (M-CON), which constructs the best consensus models with the lowest error for each forecast lead time, and a single best consensus model (S-CON) having the lowest 72-hour cumulative mean error, through on training process. The evaluation results of the selected consensus models for the training and forecast periods reveal that the M-CON and S-CON outperform the individual best-performance guidance models. In particular, the M-CON showed the best overall performance, having advantages in the early stages of prediction. This study finally suggests that forecaster needs to use the latest evaluation results of the guidance models every year rather than rely on the well-known accuracy of models for a long time to reduce prediction error.

• Atmosphere
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.109-121
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• 2011

This study revisits the definition of Changma, which is the major rainy season in Korea and corresponds to a regional component of the East Asian summer monsoon system. In spite of several decades of researches on Changma, questions still remain on many aspects of Changma that include its proper definition, determination of its onset and retreat, and relevant large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical features. Therefore, this study clarifies the definition of Changma (which is a starting point for the study of interannual and interdecadal variability) using a basic concept of air mass and front by calculating equivalent potential temperature (${\theta}_e$) that considers air temperature and humidity simultaneously. A negative peak in the meridional gradient of this quantity signifies the approximate location of Changma front. This front has previously been recognized as the boundary between the tropical North Pacific air mass and cold Okhotsk sea air mass. However, this study identifies three more important air masses affecting Changma: the tropical monsoon air mass related to the intertropical convergence zone over Southeast Asia and South China Sea, the tropical continental air mass over North China, and intermittently polar continental air mass. The variations of these five air masses lead to complicated evolution of Changma and modulate intensity, onset and withdrawal dates, and duration of Changma on the interannual time scale. Importantly, use of ${\theta}_e$, 500-hPa geopotential height and 200 hPa zonal wind fields for determining Changma onset and withdrawal dates results in a significant increase (up to~57%) in the hindcast skill compared to a previous study.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.1-18
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• 2016

Eleven Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity guidance models in the western North Pacific have been validated over 2008~2014 based on various analysis methods according to the lead time of forecast, year, month, intensity, rapid intensity change, track, and geographical area with an additional focus on TCs that influenced the Korean peninsula. From the evaluation using mean absolute error and correlation coefficients for maximum wind speed forecasts up to 72 h, we found that the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF) outperforms all others overall although the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System of Japan Meteorological Agency (TEPS), and the Korean version of Weather and Weather Research and Forecasting model (KWRF) also shows a good performance in some lead times of forecast. In particular, HWRF shows the highest performance in predicting the intensity of strong TCs above Category 3, which may be attributed to its highest spatial resolution (~3 km). The Navy Operational Global Prediction Model (NOGAPS) and GFS were the most improved model during 2008~2014. For initial intensity error, two Japanese models, Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model (JGSM) and TEPS, had the smallest error. In track forecast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and recent GFS model outperformed others. The present results has significant implications for providing basic information for operational forecasters as well as developing ensemble or consensus prediction systems.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.36 no.6
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• pp.578-585
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• 2003

The chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) is an anadromous fish distributed all around the North Pacific. Artificial production and release of the juveniles are being made by Korea, Japan, Russia, Canada and the United States. It is important to set up some criteria identifying each stock in order to clarify each nation's right of harvest for the chum salmon resource. As an attempt to build such criteria, we analyzed sequences of a microsatellite DNA Ogo5 and the COIII-ND3-ND4L region of the mitochondrial DNA from chum salmons of Korea, Japan, and the United States. Ogo5 has 4 different alleles: allele A, B-1, B-2, and B-3. Allele B-3 is found only in 3 individuals out of 12 Korea salmons. The Japan salmons have the other 3 alleles and the America salmons have only 2 allots, A and B-1. Heterozygosity index (Ho/He) distinguishes the Korea (1.61) and Japan salmons (1.63) from the America ones (1.09). Seventeen different haplotypes are found in the COIII-ND3-ND4L region from 60 individuals,20 from each stock. The gene genealogy of the haplotypes revealed by TCS program shows that the Korea and Japan salmons are genetically closely linked, but that they are clearly distinguished from the America ones. Ten and eleven individuals of the Korea and Japan salmons have an identical haplotype. Nine individuals of the Korea salmons $(45\%),$ however, are separable from the Japan salmons by their own specific nucleotides. This result presents usefulness of the COIII-ND3-ND4L region as a genetic marker for identification of the chum salmon stocks.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.205-214
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• 2011

Finite element grid refinements with different intensities having 14 K, 52 K and 211 K on the Yellow Sea (YS) have been constructed to make precise tidal simulations. In the meanwhile 57 K grid was made to the extended North Western Pacific (NWP) sea. Numerical simulation were done based on 32 parallel processors by using pADCIRC v 49.21 model. In the YS tidal simulation on YS-G52K and YS-G211K grid structure, KorBathy30s and ETOPO1 bathymetry data are used and 4 major tidal constituents are prescribed from FES2004. Computed results are in good agreement within 0.138 meter in RMS error for amplification and 14.80 degree of phase compared to observed tidal records. Similar error bounds are acquired in the extended NWP tidal simulation on NWP-G57K grid with 8 tidal constituent prescription on the open boundary.

• 한국해양학회지
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.255-261
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• 1991

Bacterial abundance and production in the water column over two seamounts (Horizon Guyot and magellan rise) in the central North Pacific were studied in March 1987. Bacterial abundance (0.9-2.3${\times}$10/SUP 8/ l/SUP -1/) in surface waters during the study period were in the lower limit of the values reported for oligotrophic areas. further, bacterial abundance in mesopelagic zone (mostly<5${\times}$ 10/SUP 7/ l/SUP -1/) was much lower than that reported from other tropical areas. Bacterial production 920-466 ng C l/SUP -1/ d/SUP -1/) in surface waters was also low compared to other oligotrophic oceanic environments. However, comparison of bacterial production with the earlier reported values of primary production from these regions suggested a significant role of bacteria in the utilization of organic matter in further studies on spatial distribution of bacterial production on both small and large scales in very oligotrophic aquatic environments are suggested to be necessary.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.17-28
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• 2021

We investigated the impact of domain size on the simulated summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two different domains are integrated up to 72-hours from 29 June 2017 to 28 July 2017 when the Changma front is active. The domain sizes are adopted from previous RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) and current LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration, while other model configurations are fixed identically. We found that the larger domain size showed better prediction skills, especially in precipitation forecast performance. This performance improvement is particularly noticeable over the central region of the Korean Peninsula. Comparisons of physical aspects of each variable revealed that the inflow of moisture flux from the East China Sea was well reproduced in the experiment with a large model domain due to a more realistic North Pacific high compared to the small domain experiment. These results suggest that the North Pacific anticyclone could be an important factor for the precipitation forecast during the summer-time over the Korean Peninsula.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.511-519
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• 2022

Given the significant social and economic impact caused by heat waves, there is a pressing need to predict them with high accuracy and reliability. In this study, we analyzed the real-time forecast data from six models constituting the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction project, to elucidate the key mechanisms contributing to the prediction of the recent record-breaking Korean heat wave event in 2018. Weekly anomalies were first obtained by subtracting the 2017-2020 mean values for both S2S model simulations and observations. By comparing four Korean heat-wave-related indices from S2S models to the observed data, we aimed to identify key climate processes affecting prediction accuracy. The results showed that superior performance at predicting the 2018 Korean heat wave was achieved when the model showed better prediction performance for the anomalous anticyclonic activity in the upper troposphere of Eastern Europe and the cyclonic circulation over the Western North Pacific (WNP) region compared to the observed data. Furthermore, the development of upper-tropospheric anticyclones in Eastern Europe was closely related to global warming and the occurrence of La Niña events. The anomalous cyclonic flow in the WNP region coincided with enhancements in Madden-Julian oscillation phases 4-6. Our results indicate that, for the accurate prediction of heat waves, such as the 2018 Korean heat wave, it is imperative for the S2S models to realistically reproduce the variabilities over the Eastern Europe and WNP regions.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.399-411
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• 2023

This study compares the three detection algorithms of East Asian summer atmospheric rivers (ARs). The algorithms developed by Guan and Waliser (GW15), Park et al. (P21), and Tian et al. (T23) are particularly compared in terms of the AR frequency, the number of AR events, and the AR duration for the period of 2016-2020. All three algorithms show similar spatio-temporal distributions of AR frequency, centered along the edge of the North Pacific high. The maximum AR frequency gradually shifts northward in early summer as the edge of the North Pacific High expands, and retreats in late summer. However, the detailed pattern and the maximum value differ among the algorithms. When the AR frequency is decomposed into the number of AR events and the AR duration, the AR frequencies detected by GW15 and P21 are equally explained by both factors. However, the number of AR events primarily determine the AR frequency in T23. This difference occurs as T23 utilizes the machine learning algorithm applied to moisture field while GW15 and P21 apply the threshold value to moisture transport field. When evaluating AR-related precipitation, the ARs detected by P21 show the closest relationship with total precipitation in East Asia by up to 60%. These results indicate that AR detection in the East Asian summer is sensitive to the choice of the detection algorithm and can be optimized for the target region.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.69-78
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• 2024

We have proposed a method for estimating the size-dependent mortality (M) of short-lived semelparous cephalopod species. To estimate the size-dependent mortality of a winter cohort of the common squid Todarodes pacificus, a commercially important cephalopod species in the North Pacific, we used the data and results of previous studies. On the basis of the bigger-is-better the steady-state hypothesis, we derived a theoretical mortality curve by assuming M as an inverse function of mantle length (ML). The derived constant for size-specific instantaneous mortality (q), assuming an embryonic survival rate of 86.6%, was 0.413 day^-1 mm in ML. Estimates of life-stage-specific M ranged from 0.0280 to 0.435 day^-1 for paralarvae, 0.00278 to 0.0269 day^-1 for juveniles, 0.00197 to 0.00275 day^-1 for pre-spawning adults, and 0.0913 to 0.0920 day^-1 for post-spawning adults. Sensitivity analyses showed that the derived size-dependent M did not significantly change with varying embryonic survival rates, from 48%, the lowest reported value, to 100%. Additionally, comparison of the length frequencies derived from our simulations with those derived from catch data did not show a significant difference, suggesting that our approach and procedures are reliable for stock assessment and management of the common squid.