• Title/Summary/Keyword: Non-parametric Prediction

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Development of Prediction Model of Groundwater Pollution based on Food Available Water and Validation in Small Watersheds (식품용수 수질자료를 이용한 지하수 오염 예측 모델 개발 및 소규모 유역에서의 검증)

  • Nam, Sungwoo;Park, Eungyu;Yi, Myeong-jae;Jeon, Seonkeum;Jung, Hyemin;Kim, Jeongwoo
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2021
  • Groundwater is used in many areas in food industry such as food manufacturing, food processing, cooking, and liquor industry etc. in Korea. As groundwater occupies a large portion of food industry, it is necessary to predict deterioration of water quality to ensure the safety of food water since using undrinkable groundwater has a ripple effect that can cause great harm or anxiety to food users. In this study, spatiotemporal data aggregation method was used in order to obtain spatially representative data, which enable prediction of groundwater quality change in a small watershed. In addition, a highly reliable predictive model was developed to estimate long-term changes in groundwater quality by applying a non-parametric segmented regression technique. Two pilot watersheds were selected where a large number of companies use groundwater for food water, and the appropriateness of the model was assessed by comparing the model-produced values with those obtained by actual measurements. The result of this study can contribute to establishing a customized food water management system utilizing big data that respond quickly, accurately, and preemptively to changes in groundwater quality and pollution. It is also expected to contribute to the improvement of food safety management.

An Empirical Study on Prediction of the Art Price using Multivariate Long Short Term Memory Recurrent Neural Network Deep Learning Model (다변수 LSTM 순환신경망 딥러닝 모형을 이용한 미술품 가격 예측에 관한 실증연구)

  • Lee, Jiin;Song, Jeongseok
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.552-560
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    • 2021
  • With the recent development of the art distribution system, interest in art investment is increasing rather than seeing art as an object of aesthetic utility. Unlike stocks and bonds, the price of artworks has a heterogeneous characteristic that is determined by reflecting both objective and subjective factors, so the uncertainty in price prediction is high. In this study, we used LSTM Recurrent Neural Network deep learning model to predict the auction winning price by inputting the artist, physical and sales charateristics of the Korean artist. According to the result, the RMSE value, which explains the difference between the predicted and actual price by model, was 0.064. Painter Lee Dae Won had the highest predictive power, and Lee Joong Seop had the lowest. The results suggest the art market becomes more active as investment goods and demand for auction winning price increases.

Prognostic Prediction Based on Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI and Dynamic Susceptibility Contrast-Enhanced MRI Parameters from Non-Enhancing, T2-High-Signal-Intensity Lesions in Patients with Glioblastoma

  • Sang Won Jo;Seung Hong Choi;Eun Jung Lee;Roh-Eul Yoo;Koung Mi Kang;Tae Jin Yun;Ji-Hoon Kim;Chul-Ho Sohn
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.1369-1378
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    • 2021
  • Objective: Few attempts have been made to investigate the prognostic value of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI or dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC) MRI of non-enhancing, T2-high-signal-intensity (T2-HSI) lesions of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) in newly diagnosed patients. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic values of DCE MRI and DSC MRI parameters from non-enhancing, T2-HSI lesions of GBM. Materials and Methods: A total of 76 patients with GBM who underwent preoperative DCE MRI and DSC MRI and standard treatment were retrospectively included. Six months after surgery, the patients were categorized into early progression (n = 15) and non-early progression (n = 61) groups. We extracted and analyzed the permeability and perfusion parameters of both modalities for the non-enhancing, T2-HSI lesions of the tumors. The optimal percentiles of the respective parameters obtained from cumulative histograms were determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and univariable Cox regression analyses. The results were compared using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis of progression-free survival. Results: The 95th percentile value (PV) of Ktrans, mean Ktrans, and median Ve were significant predictors of early progression as identified by the ROC curve analysis (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.704, p = 0.005; AUC = 0.684, p = 0.021; and AUC = 0.670, p = 0.0325, respectively). Univariable Cox regression analysis of the above three parametric values showed that the 95th PV of Ktrans and the mean Ktrans were significant predictors of early progression (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.06, p = 0.009; HR = 1.25, p = 0.017, respectively). Multivariable Cox regression analysis, which also incorporated clinical parameters, revealed that the 95th PV of Ktrans was the sole significant independent predictor of early progression (HR = 1.062, p < 0.009). Conclusion: The 95th PV of Ktrans from the non-enhancing, T2-HSI lesions of GBM is a potential prognostic marker for disease progression.

The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM (다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

Parametric Analysis of the Solar Radiation Pressure Model for Precision GPS Orbit Determination

  • Bae, Tae-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2017
  • The SRP (Solar Radiation Pressure) model has always been an issue in the dynamic GPS (Global Positioning System) orbit determination. The widely used CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) model and its variants have nine parameters to estimate the solar radiation pressure from the Sun and to absorb the remaining forces. However, these parameters show a very high correlation with each other and, therefore, only several of them are estimated at most of the IGS (International GNSS Service) analysis centers. In this study, we attempted to numerically verify the correlation between the parameters. For this purpose, a bi-directional, multi-step numerical integrator was developed. The correlation between the SRP parameters was analyzed in terms of post-fit residuals of the orbit. The integrated orbit was fitted to the IGS final orbit as external observations. On top of the parametric analysis of the SRP parameters, we also verified the capabilities of orbit prediction at later time epochs. As a secondary criterion for orbit quality, the positional discontinuity of the daily arcs was also analyzed. The resulting post-fit RMSE (Root-Mean-Squared Error) shows a level of 4.8 mm on average and there is no significant difference between block types. Since the once-per-revolution parameters in the Y-axis are highly correlated with those in the B-axis, the periodic terms in the D- and Y-axis are constrained to zero in order to resolve the correlations. The 6-hr predicted orbit based on the previous day yields about 3 cm or less compared to the IGS final orbit for a week, and reaches up to 6 cm for 24 hours (except for one day). The mean positional discontinuity at the boundary of two 1-day arcs is on the level of 1.4 cm for all non-eclipsing satellites. The developed orbit integrator shows a high performance in statistics of RMSE and positional discontinuity, as well as the separations of the dynamic parameters. In further research, additional verification of the reference frame for the estimated orbit using SLR is necessary to confirm the consistency of the orbit frames.

Finite element modeling of corroded RC beams using cohesive surface bonding approach

  • Al-Osta, Mohammed A.;Al-Sakkaf, Hamdi A.;Sharif, Alfarabi M.;Ahmad, Shamsad;Baluch, Mohammad H.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.167-182
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    • 2018
  • The modeling of loss of bond between reinforcing bars (rebars) and concrete due to corrosion is useful in studying the behavior and prediction of residual load bearing capacity of corroded reinforced concrete (RC) members. In the present work, first the possibility of using different methods to simulate the rebars-concrete bonding, which is used in three-dimensional (3D) finite element (FE) modeling of corroded RC beams, was explored. The cohesive surface interaction method was found to be most suitable for simulating the bond between rebars and concrete. Secondly, using the cohesive surface interaction approach, the 3D FE modeling of the behavior of non-corroded and corroded RC beams was carried out in an ABAQUS environment. Experimental data, reported in literature, were used to validate the models. Then using the developed models, a parametric study was conducted to examine the effects of some parameters, such as degree and location of the corrosion, on the behavior and residual capacity of the corroded beams. The results obtained from the parametric analysis using the developed model showed that corrosion in top compression rebars has very small effect on the flexural behaviors of beams with small flexural reinforcement ratio that is less than the maximum ratio specified in ACI-318-14 (singly RC beam). In addition, the reduction of steel yield strength in tension reinforcement due to corrosion is the main source of reducing the load bearing capacity of corroded RC beams. The most critical corrosion-induced damage is the complete loss of bond between rebars and the concrete as it causes sudden failure and the beam acts as un-reinforced beam.

Prediction of the load-displacement response of ground anchors via the load-transfer method

  • Chalmovsky, Juraj;Mica, Lumir
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.359-370
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    • 2020
  • Prestressed ground anchors are important structural elements in geotechnical engineering. Despite their widespread usage, the design process is often significantly simplified. One of the major drawbacks of commonly used design methods is the assumption that skin friction is mobilized uniformly along an anchor's fixed length, one consequence of which is that a progressive failure phenomenon is neglected. The following paper introduces an alternative design approach - a computer algorithm employing the load-transfer method. The method is modified for the analysis of anchors and combined with a procedure for the derivation of load-transfer functions based on commonly available laboratory tests. The load-transfer function is divided into a pre-failure (hardening) and a post-failure (softening) segment. In this way, an aspect of non-linear stress-strain soil behavior is incorporated into the algorithm. The influence of post-grouting in terms of radial stress update, diameter enlargement, and grout consolidation is included. The axial stiffness of the anchor body is not held constant. Instead, it gradually decreases as a direct consequence of tensile cracks spreading in the grout material. An analysis of the program's operation is performed via a series of parametric studies in which the influence of governing parameters is investigated. Finally, two case studies concerning three investigation anchor load tests are presented.

Development of a Linear Stability Analysis Model for Vertical Boiling Channels Connecting with Unheated Risers

  • Hwang, Dae-Hyun;Yoo, Yeon-Jong;Zee, Seong-Quun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.572-585
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    • 1999
  • The characteristics of two-phase flow instability in a vertical boiling channel connecting with an unheated riser are investigated through the linear stability analysis model. Various two-phase flow models, including thermal non-equilibrium effects, are taken into account for establishing a physical model in the time domain. A classical approach to the frequency response method is adopted for the stability analysis by employing the D-partition method. The adequacy of the linear model is verified by evaluating experimental data at high quality conditions. It reveals that the flow-pattern-dependent drift velocity model enhances the prediction accuracy while the homogeneous equilibrium model shows the most conservative predictions. The characteristics of density wave oscillations under low-power and low-quality conditions are investigated by devising a simple model which accounts for the gravitational and frictional pressure losses along the channel. The necessary conditions for the occurrences of type-I instability and flow excursion are deduced from the one-dimensional D-partition analysis. The parametric effects of some design variables on low quality oscillations are also investigated.

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Hydrologic Response Estimation Using Mallows' $C_L$ Statistics (Mallows의 $C_L$ 통계량을 이용한 수문응답 추정)

  • Seong, Gi-Won;Sim, Myeong-Pil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.437-445
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    • 1999
  • The present paper describes the problem of hydrologic response estimation using non-parametric ridge regression method. The method adapted in this work is based on the minimization of the $C_L$ statistics, which is an estimate of the mean square prediction error. For this method, effects of using both the identity matrix and the Laplacian matrix were considered. In addition, we evaluated methods for estimating the error variance of the impulse response. As a result of analyzing synthetic and real data, a good estimation was made when the Laplacian matrix for the weighting matrix and the bias corrected estimate for the error variance were used. The method and procedure presented in present paper will play a robust and effective role on separating hydrologic response.

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Prediction of ultimate load capacity of concrete-filled steel tube columns using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)

  • Avci-Karatas, Cigdem
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.583-594
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    • 2019
  • In the areas highly exposed to earthquakes, concrete-filled steel tube columns (CFSTCs) are known to provide superior structural aspects such as (i) high strength for good seismic performance (ii) high ductility (iii) enhanced energy absorption (iv) confining pressure to concrete, (v) high section modulus, etc. Numerous studies were reported on behavior of CFSTCs under axial compression loadings. This paper presents an analytical model to predict ultimate load capacity of CFSTCs with circular sections under axial load by using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). MARS is a nonlinear and non-parametric regression methodology. After careful study of literature, 150 comprehensive experimental data presented in the previous studies were examined to prepare a data set and the dependent variables such as geometrical and mechanical properties of circular CFST system have been identified. Basically, MARS model establishes a relation between predictors and dependent variables. Separate regression lines can be formed through the concept of divide and conquers strategy. About 70% of the consolidated data has been used for development of model and the rest of the data has been used for validation of the model. Proper care has been taken such that the input data consists of all ranges of variables. From the studies, it is noted that the predicted ultimate axial load capacity of CFSTCs is found to match with the corresponding experimental observations of literature.