• Title/Summary/Keyword: Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient

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Assessment of future climate change impact on groundwater level behavior in Geum river basin using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 미래기후변화에 따른 금강유역의 지하수위 거동 평가)

  • Lee, Ji Wan;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Da Rae;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.247-261
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the groundwater level behavior of Geum river basin ($9,645.5km^2$) under future climate change scenario projection periods (2020s: 2010~2039, 2050s: 2040~2069, 2080s: 2070~2099) using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Before future evaluation, the SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2005~2015) daily multi-purpose dam inflow at 2 locations (DCD, YDD), ground water level data at 5 locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR, CASS, BYBY), and three years (2012~2015) daily multi-function weir inflow at 3 locations (SJW, GJW, BJW). For the two dam inflow and dam storage, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was 0.57~0.67 and 0.87~0.94, and the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.69~0.73 and 0.63~0.73 respectively. For the three weir inflow and storage, the NSE was 0.68~0.70 and 0.94~0.99, and the $R^2$ was 0.83~0.86 and 0.48~0.61 respectively. The average $R^2$ for groundwater level was from 0.53 to 0.61. Under the future temperature increase of $4.3^{\circ}C$ and precipitation increase of 6.9% in 2080s (2070~2099) based on the historical periods (1976~2005) from HadGEM3-RA RCP 8.5 scenario, the future groundwater level shows decrease of -13.0 cm, -5.0 cm, -9.0 cm at 3 upstream locations (JSJS, OCCS, BEMR) and increase of +3.0 cm, +1.0 cm at 2 downstream locations (CASS, BYBY) respectively. The future groundwater level was directly affected by the groundwater recharge by the future seasonal spatial variation of rainfall in the watershed.

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

Evaluation of Land Use Change Impact on Hydrology and Water Quality Health in Geum River Basin (금강유역의 토지이용 변화가 수문·수질 건전성에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • LEE, Ji-Wan;PARK, Jong-Yoon;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.82-96
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    • 2019
  • This study evaluated the status of watershed health in Geum River Basin by SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrology and water quality. The watershed healthiness from watershed hydrology and stream water quality was calculated using multivariate normal distribution from 0(poor) to 1(good). Before evaluation of watershed healthiness, the SWAT calibration for 11 years(2005~2015) of streamflow(Q) at 5 locations with 0.50~0.77 average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency and suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen(T-N), and total phosphorus(T-P) at 3 locations with 0.67~0.94, 0.59~0.79, and 0.61~0.79 determination coefficient($R^2$) respectively. For 24 years (1985~2008) the spatiotemporal change of watershed healthiness was analyzed with calibarted SWAT and 5 land use data of 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2008. The 2008 SWAT results showed that the surface runoff increased by 40.6%, soil moisture and baseflow decreased by 6.8% and 3.0% respectively compared to 1985 reference year. The stream water quality of SS, T-N, and T-P increased by 29.2%, 9.3%, and 16.7% respectively by land development and agricultural activity. Based on the 1985 year land use condition. the 2008 watershed healthiness of hydrology and stream water quality decreased from 1 to 0.94 and 0.69 respectively. The results of this study be able to detect changes in watershed environment due to human activity compared to past natural conditions.

Prediction of Shear Wave Velocity on Sand Using Standard Penetration Test Results : Application of Artificial Neural Network Model (표준관입시험결과를 이용한 사질토 지반의 전단파속도 예측 : 인공신경망 모델의 적용)

  • Kim, Bum-Joo;Ho, Joon-Ki;Hwang, Young-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2014
  • Although shear wave velocity ($V_s$) is an important design factor in seismic design, the measurement is not usually made in typical field investigation due to time and economic limitations. In the present study, an investigation was made to predict sand $V_s$ based on the standard penetration test (SPT) results by using artificial neural network (ANN) model. A total of 650 dataset composed of SPT-N value ($N_{60}$), water content, fine content, specific gravity for input data and $V_s$ for output data was used to build and train the ANN model. The sensitivity analysis was then performed for the trained ANN to examine the effect of the input variables on the $V_s$. Also, the ANN model was compared with seven existing empirical models on the performance. The sensitivity analysis results revealed that the effect of the SPT-N value on $V_s$ is significantly greater compared to other input variables. Also, when compared with the empirical models using Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the ANN model was found to exhibit the highest prediction capability.

Large Scale SWAT Watershed Modeling Considering Multi-purpose Dams and Multi-function Weirs Operation - For Namhan River Basin - (다목적 댐 및 다기능 보 운영을 고려한 대유역 SWAT 모형 구축기법 연구 - 남한강 유역을 대상으로 -)

  • Ahn, So Ra;Lee, Ji Wan;Jang, Sun Sook;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.4
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 2016
  • This study is to evaluate the applicability of SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model for multi-purpose dams and multi-function weirs operation in Namhan river basin ($12,577km^2$) of South Korea. The SWAT was calibrated (2005 ~ 2009) and validated (2010 ~ 2014) considering of 4 multi-purpose dams and 3 multi-function weirs using daily observed dam inflow and storage, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and groundwater level data. Firstly, the dam inflow was calibrated by the five steps; (step 1) the physical rate between total runoff and evapotranspiration was controlled by ESCO, (step 2) the peak runoff was calibrated by CN, OV_N, and CH_N, (step 3) the baseflow was calibrated by GW_DELAY, (step 4) the recession curve of baseflow was calibrated by ALPHA_BF, (step 5) the flux between lateral flow and return flow was controlled by SOL_AWC and SOL_K, and (step 6) the flux between reevaporation and return flow was controlled by REVAPMN and GW_REVAP. Secondly, for the storage water level calibration, the SWAT emergency and principle spillway were applied for water level from design flood level to restricted water level for dam and from maximum to management water level for weir respectively. Finally, the parameters for evapotranspiration (ESCO), soil water (SOL_AWC) and groundwater level fluctuation (GWQMN, ALPHA_BF) were repeatedly adjusted by trial error method. For the dam inflow, the determination coefficient $R^2$ was above 0.80. The average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was from 0.59 to 0.88 and the RMSE was from 3.3 mm/day to 8.6 mm/day respectively. For the water balance performance, the PBIAS was between 9.4 and 21.4 %. For the dam storage volume, the $R^2$ was above 0.63 and the PBIAS was between 6.3 and 13.5 % respectively. The average $R^2$ for evapotranspiration and soil moisture at CM (Cheongmicheon) site was 0.72 and 0.78, and the average $R^2$ for groundwater level was 0.59 and 0.60 at 2 YP (Yangpyeong) sites.

Inter-basin water transfer modeling from Seomjin river to Yeongsan river using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 섬진강에서 영산강으로의 유역간 물이동 모델링)

  • Kim, Yong Won;Lee, Ji Wan;Woo, So Young;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2020
  • This study is to establish the situation of inter-basin transfer from Seomjin river basin to Yeongsan river basin using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Firstly, the SWAT modeling was conducted for each river basin. After, the inter-basin transfer was established using SWAT reservoir operating parameters WURESN (Water Use Reservoir Withdrawn) and inlet function from Juam dam of Seomjin river basin to Gwangju stream of Yeongsan river basin respectively. Each river basin was calibrated and validated using 13 years (2005~2017) data of Seomjin- Juam dam reservoir storage (JAD), release, transfer and Yeongsan-Mareuk (MR) stream gauge station. The results of root mean square error RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency NSE, and determination coefficient R2 of JAD were 2.22 mm/day, 0.62 and 0.86 respectively. The RMSE, NSE, and R2 of MR were 1.38 mm/day, 0.69 and 0.84 respectively. To evaluate the downstream effects by the transferred water, the water levels of 2 multi-function weirs (SCW, JSW) in Yeongsan river basin and the Gokseong (GS) and Gurye (GR) stream gauge stations in Seomjin river basin were also calibrated. The RMSE, NSE, and R2 of SCW, JSW, GS and GR were 1.49~2.49 mm/day, 0.45~0.76, 0.81~0.90 respectively.

Analysis of Soil Erosion Reduction Ratio with Changes in Soil Reconditioning Amount for Highland Agricultural Crops (고랭지 농업의 작물별 객토량 변화에 따른 토양유실 저감 분석)

  • Heo, Sunggu;Jun, ManSig;Park, Sanghun;Kim, Ki-sung;Kang, SungKeun;Ok, YongSik;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.185-194
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    • 2008
  • There is increased soil erosion potential at highland agricultural crop fields because of its topographic characteristics and site-specific agricultural management practices performed at these areas. The agricultural upland fields are usually located at the sloping areas, resulting in higher soil loss, pesticides, and nutrients in case of torrential rainfall events or typhoon, such as 2002 Rusa and 2003 MaeMi. At the highland agricultural fields, the soil reconditioning have been performed every year to decrease damage by continuous cropping and pests. Also it has been done to increase crop productivity and soil fertility. The increased amounts of soil used for soil reconditioning are increasing over the years, causing significant impacts on water quality at the receiving water bodies. In this study, the field investigation was done to check soil reconditioning status for potato, carrot, and cabbage at the Doam-dam watershed. With these data obtained from the field investigation, the Soil and Water Assesment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate the soil loss reduction with environment-friendly and agronomically enough soil reconditioning. The average soil reconditioning depth for potato was 34.3 cm, 48.3 cm for carrot, and 31.2 cm for cabbage at the Doam-dam watershed. These data were used for SWAT model runs. Before the SWAT simulation, the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch, developed by the Kangwon National University, was applied because of proper simulation of soil erosion and sediment yield at the sloping watershed, such as the Doam-dam watershed. With this patch applied, the Coefficient of Determination ($R^2$) value was 0.85 and the Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (EI) was 0.75 for flow calibration. The $R^2$ value was 0.87 and the EI was 0.85 for flow validation. For sediment simulation, the $R^2$ value was 0.91 and the EI was 0.70, indicating the SWAT model predicts the soil erosion processes and sediment yield at the Doam-dam watershed. With the calibrated and validated SWAT for the Doam-dam watershed, the soil erosion reduction was investigated for potato, carrot, and cabbage. For potato, around 19.3 cm of soil were over applied to the agricultural field, causing 146% of more soil erosion rate, approximately 33.3 cm, causing 146% of more soil erosion for carrot, and approximately 16.2 cm, causing 44% of more soil erosion. The results obtained in this study showed that excessive soil reconditioning are performed at the highland agricultural fields, causing severe muddy water issues and water quality degradation at the Doam-water watershed. The results can be used to develop soil reconditioning standard policy for various crops at the highland agricultural fields, without causing problems agronomically and environmentally.

Evaluation and complementation of observed flow in the Hancheon watershed in Jeju Island using a physically-based watershed model (유역모형을 활용한 제주도 한천 유역의 관측유량 평가 및 보완)

  • Kim, Chul Gyum;Kim, Nam Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.11
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    • pp.951-959
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to evaluate observed runoff data collected every 10 minutes at stream gauging stations in Jeju Island using a physically-based model, SWAT. The Hancheon watershed was selected as study area, and ephemeral stream algorithm suggested by previous research was incorporated into the model, which is able to simulate ephemeral runoff pattern of Jeju streams. Simulated runoff and runoff rates were compared to observations during 2008-2013, which showed 'very good' performance rating in Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (ME) and determination coefficient ($R^2$). Some observations had problems such that runoff rates were very high for some rainfall events with little amount of antecedent rainfall, and were very low or missing with much rainfall comparing to previous researches. Additionally, regression equation between precipitation and simulated runoff was generated with high degree of correlation. The equation can be utilized to simply predict reasonable runoff, or to investigate and complement the abnormal or missing data of observations on the assumption that modelling results were sufficiently reliable and satisfactory. As results, minimizing the error in calibrating the model by evaluation of observed data would be helpful to accurately model the rainfall-runoff characteristics and analyze the water balance components of watersheds in Jeju Island.

Artificial Neural Network-based Model for Predicting Moisture Content in Rice Using UAV Remote Sensing Data

  • Sarkar, Tapash Kumar;Ryu, Chan-Seok;Kang, Jeong-Gyun;Kang, Ye-Seong;Jun, Sae-Rom;Jang, Si-Hyeong;Park, Jun-Woo;Song, Hye-Young
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.611-624
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    • 2018
  • The percentage of moisture content in rice before harvest is crucial to reduce the economic loss in terms of yield, quality and drying cost. This paper discusses the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in developing a reliable prediction model using the low altitude fixed-wing unmanned air vehicle (UAV) based reflectance value of green, red, and NIR and statistical moisture content data. A comparison between the actual statistical data and the predicted data was performed to evaluate the performance of the model. The correlation coefficient (R) is 0.862 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 0.914% indicate a very good accuracy of the model to predict the moisture content in rice before harvest. The model predicted values are matched well with the measured values($R^2=0.743$, and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency = 0.730). The model results are very promising and show the reliable potential to predict moisture content with the error of prediction less than 7%. This model might be potentially helpful for the rice production system in the field of precision agriculture (PA).

Application of SWAT-CUP for Streamflow Auto-calibration at Soyang-gang Dam Watershed (소양강댐 유역의 유출 자동보정을 위한 SWAT-CUP의 적용 및 평가)

  • Ryu, Jichul;Kang, Hyunwoo;Choi, Jae Wan;Kong, Dong Soo;Gum, Donghyuk;Jang, Chun Hwa;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.347-358
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    • 2012
  • The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) should be calibrated and validated with observed data to secure accuracy of model prediction. Recently, the SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program for SWAT) software, which can calibrate SWAT using various algorithms, were developed to help SWAT users calibrate model efficiently. In this study, three algorithms (GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, PARASOL: Parameter solution, SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2) in the SWAT-CUP were applied for the Soyang-gang dam watershed to evaluate these algorithms. Simulated total streamflow and 0~75% percentile streamflow were compared with observed data, respectively. The NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) and $R^2$ (Coefficient of Determination) values were the same from three algorithms but the P-factor for confidence of calibration ranged from 0.27 to 0.81 . the PARASOL shows the lowest p-factor (0.27), SUFI-2 gives the greatest P-factor (0.81) among these three algorithms. Based on calibration results, the SUFI-2 was found to be suitable for calibration in Soyang-gang dam watershed. Although the NSE and $R^2$ values were satisfactory for total streamflow estimation, the SWAT simulated values for low flow regime were not satisfactory (negative NSE values) in this study. This is because of limitations in semi-distributed SWAT modeling structure, which cannot simulated effects of spatial locations of HRUs (Hydrologic Response Unit) within subwatersheds in SWAT. To solve this problem, a module capable of simulating groundwater/baseflow should be developed and added to the SWAT system. With this enhancement in SWAT/SWAT-CUP, the SWAT estimated streamflow values could be used in determining standard flow rate in TMDLs (Total Maximum Daily Load) application at a watershed.